Office SuperBowl Pool

In case you live with your head in the sand, here's how the typical 100 box office pool works:

A 10 x 10 grid is drawn, and people buy boxes for $x. Once all 100 are sold, the numbers 0 thru 9 are randomly assigned across the top and side, as well as AFC and NFC being assigned. The last digits of the score corresponds to one box. The owner of that box wins.

Typically, the payouts are:
1st quarter: 12.5%
Half time: 25%
3rd quarter: 12.5%
Final: 50%



I don't have a problem with that, UNLESS, the score at the end of the 4th quarter is tied. In that case, according to the above paytable, the 4th quarter score is ignored.

Everyone acknowledges that the guy with 0-0 has an advantage, since there is a chance there will be no score in the first quarter. Other doubles are disadvantaged since the game will not end in a tie. People also analyze their numbers and tend to write off some combinations immediately. I.E. 8-1 has little chance. Etc.

That being the case, it seems to me that there should be TWO pay schedules. Use the above if there is no overtime, and use the following if there is:

1st quarter: 10%
Half time: 20%
3rd quarter: 10%
4th quarter: 10%
Final: 50%

Everyone who I mention this to tells me I'm nuts.

So I ask my gambling, odds calculating, number crunching brethern this question: Am I nuts?

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On a side question, although you can't pick your numbers, which digits are better than others?



Thanks

Wizard definitely answered your second question in a previous "Ask The Wizard". I think I remember a grid with all of the expected outcomes.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

In case you live with your head in the sand, here's how the typical 100 box office pool works:

A 10 x 10 grid is drawn, and people buy boxes for $x. Once all 100 are sold, the numbers 0 thru 9 are randomly assigned across the top and side, as well as AFC and NFC being assigned. The last digits of the score corresponds to one box. The owner of that box wins.

Typically, the payouts are:
1st quarter: 12.5%
Half time: 25%
3rd quarter: 12.5%
Final: 50%



I don't have a problem with that, UNLESS, the score at the end of the 4th quarter is tied. In that case, according to the above paytable, the 4th quarter score is ignored.

Everyone acknowledges that the guy with 0-0 has an advantage, since there is a chance there will be no score in the first quarter. Other doubles are disadvantaged since the game will not end in a tie. People also analyze their numbers and tend to write off some combinations immediately. I.E. 8-1 has little chance. Etc.

That being the case, it seems to me that there should be TWO pay schedules. Use the above if there is no overtime, and use the following if there is:

1st quarter: 10%
Half time: 20%
3rd quarter: 10%
4th quarter: 10%
Final: 50%

Everyone who I mention this to tells me I'm nuts.

So I ask my gambling, odds calculating, number crunching brethern this question: Am I nuts?

---

On a side question, although you can't pick your numbers, which digits are better than others?

You are mostly nuts. There is no disadvantage in "doubles" as some numbers repeat easily (I won $200 with 7-7 in Superbowl XXX even as my Steelers lost. Talk about mixed emotions!) You are right in that if you had 7-7 and the game was tied 17-17 you cannot win. It would be up to the gamemaker to set the pay schedule. I've seen all kinds, even a "reverse score" that paid on the final only.

0-0 does have that slight advantage.

Good numbers are (in not exact order) 3,7,0,4

Average numbers are 1,6,9

Bad numbers are 5,8,2

Actually, in your way, I think you are giving too much of an additional advantage to the doubles. You can already win (say, with 0-0) the final score with 20-10, 30-10, 10-0, 20-0...etc, but now you win a little for the ties too. Realize that overtime would change everything, since the only way to win would be two numbers with a spread of 6 points or 3 points, or I guess 2 points...So not only are the doubles disadvantaged, but any score not spread as above. Of course, we still have not had a Super Bowl go to OT...

Again, all of the numbers have pluses and minuses...doubles are still pretty decent if the numbers are good.

Quote: cclub79

...since the only way to win would be two numbers with a spread of 6 points or 3 points, or I guess 2 points...So not only are the doubles disadvantaged, but any score not spread as above.

Forgive my football ignorance.

Would a tie be settled by Sudden Death?

I was under the impression that a tie is settled by a full extra quarter, and only if the game is STILL tied would it go to Sudden Death.

Quote: cclub79

Of course, we still have not had a Super Bowl go to OT....

The guy at work that runs the pool panicked a few years ago when the score was tied late in the 4th quarter. He marked the sheet "4th quarter 50%". He intended to say "Final 50%". He wasn't sure what he'd do, but then there was a score and he didn't need to worry.

And he thinks my idea is nuts.

Sudden death begins immediately, which means the score will be Winning Team +2 (Safety, pretty rare), +3 (Field Goal, probably most likely), or +6 (Touchdown, no extra point try in OT, reasonable chance). 94% of the boxes would be dead going to a specific overtime, including all matches.

It was probably one of the last second Patriots' Field Goal wins that was tied. I remember one year mine also said 4th Quarter, not Final. I would think then the tie would pay. But I have also seen some crazy ones, where it costs $1000 to enter per box, and the grids change every quarter, whomever has the reverse gets something too, etc.

Quote: cclub79

Sudden death begins immediately.

In that case, I don't object as much.

Quote: cclub79

I have also seen some crazy ones, where it costs $1000 to enter per box, and the grids change every quarter, whomever has the reverse gets something too, etc.

Yeah, the high priced pools get some whacky payouts.

There's a $500 pool here that seems like it pays EVERYONE.

Reversals get $1000, with winning pairs getting the $1000 reversal money as well as their quarter's money.

The 8 neighbors of any winning box (including reversal boxes), that haven't already won money, get $500. I.E. If a box is a neighbor for two different quarters, it only wins $500. If a neighbor is a winner or reversal of a different quarter, then it doesn't get the neighbor money.

Then, whatever's left over, gets divided by the typical 12.5% / 25% / 12.5% / 50%.

Oops I had to make a correction.....

I've seen a near-by gin-mill offer the following rate on $20/square pools:

1st Q = 10%
2nd Q = 25% Reverse = 5% (NO reverse {like 3-3 or 7-7} rolls over to FINAL reverse)
3rd Q = 15%
FINAL = 40% Reverse = 5% (NO reverse rolls into FINAL)

FINAL is final, not necessarily 4th Q.

This one, this year has 3 full pools with a week to go.

here is my table of probabilities for Super Bowl squares.