The NFL This Year
December 1st, 2009 at 7:54:10 PM
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Quick questions:
1)Does anyone know what the odds are for two undefeated teams to meet in the Superbowl?
I don't expect either the Saints or the Colts to reach the big game undefeated, if they reach teh Superbowl at all, but it is a somewhat bigger than subatomic possibility.
1)Does anyone know what the odds are for two undefeated teams to meet in the Superbowl?
I don't expect either the Saints or the Colts to reach the big game undefeated, if they reach teh Superbowl at all, but it is a somewhat bigger than subatomic possibility.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
December 2nd, 2009 at 8:58:37 AM
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Quote: Nareed...Does anyone know what the odds are for two undefeated teams to meet in the Superbowl?
I'm trying to think if it has ever happened?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
December 2nd, 2009 at 9:22:26 AM
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Never happend (so far). The 2007 Patriots went 18-0 before losing in the Super Bowl, and the 1972 Dolphins went 14-0 and won the Super Bowl. I believe only two other teams went undefeated in the early days of the NFL.
If I were a betting man (LOL) I would speculate that New Orleans and Indy won't both be perfect this season, as in the past, Indy has rested its starters at the end of the season in preparation for a playoff run. Of course, that was under Coach Dungy.
If I were a betting man (LOL) I would speculate that New Orleans and Indy won't both be perfect this season, as in the past, Indy has rested its starters at the end of the season in preparation for a playoff run. Of course, that was under Coach Dungy.
December 2nd, 2009 at 9:41:24 AM
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Quote: lucky13... in the past, Indy has rested its starters at the end of the season in preparation for a playoff run.
I have a friend who has been killing our fantasy league with Peyton Manning as his QB, and he is justifiably concerned that with a huge lead for AFC home field advantage, Indy won't risk getting Manning hurt (just as our league is getting ready to start the playoffs).
The ratio of people to cake is too big.
December 2nd, 2009 at 9:45:36 AM
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Quote: lucky13Never happend (so far). The 2007 Patriots went 18-0 before losing in the Super Bowl, and the 1972 Dolphins went 14-0 and won the Super Bowl. I believe only two other teams went undefeated in the early days of the NFL.
The 1934 Bears went 13-0-0 and the 1942 Bears went 11-0-0. There were several more teams that went x-0-y, which are listed by the NFL as 1.000 teams because they didn't count ties against winning percentage until 1972.
And, oh, yeah, the 2009 Florida Tuskers went 6-0-0 in the regular season and lost to the Las Vegas Locomotives in the championship.
December 2nd, 2009 at 10:14:54 AM
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Quote: wildqat... 1934 Bears ... 1942 Bears
this is before the Super Bowl; but you knew that
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
December 2nd, 2009 at 1:18:26 PM
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Quote: lucky13Never happend (so far). The 2007 Patriots went 18-0 before losing in the Super Bowl, and the 1972 Dolphins went 14-0 and won the Super Bowl. I believe only two other teams went undefeated in the early days of the NFL.
Right. Just to clarify, the Dolphins won 14 regular season games, 2 playoff games and the Superbowl, for a total of 17-0. The Pats won 16 regular season games, two playoff games and lost the Superbowl, for a total of 18-1.
Quote: lucky13If I were a betting man (LOL) I would speculate that New Orleans and Indy won't both be perfect this season, as in the past, Indy has rested its starters at the end of the season in preparation for a playoff run. Of course, that was under Coach Dungy.
Indy needs 3 games to clinch home field advantage. I predict when they win those three games, Maning and other starters will be rested for the playoffs. I don't think they'll abstain from all play, but will probably play the first half, or maybe even one quarter. Otherwise they will get rusty. New Orleans faces a similar situation.
Of course, NO has been long known as the worst team in the NFL. Until not too long ago they were often mocked as the Ain'ts. They haven't been the worst team for some years (that distinction, I think, belongs squarely to the Lions), but they may want to achieve an undefeated season just to prove how good they are.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
December 2nd, 2009 at 1:39:53 PM
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Quote: NareedIndy needs 3 games to clinch home field advantage. I predict when they win those three games, Maning and other starters will be rested for the playoffs. I don't think they'll abstain from all play, but will probably play the first half, or maybe even one quarter. Otherwise they will get rusty. New Orleans faces a similar situation.
NO is only a game ahead of Minnesota for NFC home field, and Minnesota's loss was out of Conference, so unless Minnesota loses again, the Saints will have something to play for in every regular season game.
Completely agree that Indy is likely to take a different approach, especially once they lock up home field.
The ratio of people to cake is too big.
December 2nd, 2009 at 4:17:04 PM
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Quote: dkNO is only a game ahead of Minnesota for NFC home field, and Minnesota's loss was out of Conference, so unless Minnesota loses again, the Saints will have something to play for in every regular season game.
Completely agree that Indy is likely to take a different approach, especially once they lock up home field.
Right. I'm sorry, I completely overlooked Minnesota. Force of habit, I guess.
So NO either needs to wind up undefeated or have Minnesota lose to a common rival or some other such combination of events. My bad.
Manning once said he was glad they finally lost a game a few seasons back, because that eased all the pressure about an undefeated season. That year they went on to win the Superbowl. Now, I don't say Indy will throw a game, but I think once they clinch home field they'll focus on the post-season and let any regular games fall where they may (wow! what a long sentence!)
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
December 2nd, 2009 at 5:31:39 PM
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I forgot a question:
Is anyone offering any kind of bet to the effect that two teams will reach the Superbowl undefeated?
I don't expect anyone is.
Is anyone offering any kind of bet to the effect that two teams will reach the Superbowl undefeated?
I don't expect anyone is.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
December 4th, 2009 at 1:23:09 PM
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Here is my guess of the odds that the Saints and Colts BOTH reach the Super Bowl undefeated.
If we assume each team has an 80% chance of winning each of their last 5 games, we get to (0.80^10) or 10.74%. I think that would be high, especially in the Colts case, as they won't have anything to play for at season's end.
Assuming both teams win their divisional round game, (0.75^2) or 56.25%. I think I read somewhere that home teams generally win 75% of the divisional round games, as they've had a week off to rest.
Assuming both teams win their respective conference championship game, (0.60^2) or 36%.
So, (0.80^10)(0.75^2)(0.60^2) = .0217 or 46 to 1. Sounds light to me. I might consider throwing $100 over 100-1, as I like the lotto now and again, and I think my assumptions might be high on the remainder of the regular season.
Of course, my assumptions could be way off, and I don't have access to future money lines to determine the proper percentages to use.
If somone knows the real line, please post.
Math guys, feel free to destroy my assumptions.
If we assume each team has an 80% chance of winning each of their last 5 games, we get to (0.80^10) or 10.74%. I think that would be high, especially in the Colts case, as they won't have anything to play for at season's end.
Assuming both teams win their divisional round game, (0.75^2) or 56.25%. I think I read somewhere that home teams generally win 75% of the divisional round games, as they've had a week off to rest.
Assuming both teams win their respective conference championship game, (0.60^2) or 36%.
So, (0.80^10)(0.75^2)(0.60^2) = .0217 or 46 to 1. Sounds light to me. I might consider throwing $100 over 100-1, as I like the lotto now and again, and I think my assumptions might be high on the remainder of the regular season.
Of course, my assumptions could be way off, and I don't have access to future money lines to determine the proper percentages to use.
If somone knows the real line, please post.
Math guys, feel free to destroy my assumptions.
December 4th, 2009 at 2:13:43 PM
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I was thinking by now someone would come out and say they are taking such a bet somewhere.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
December 4th, 2009 at 2:51:50 PM
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Quote: lucky13So, (0.80^10)(0.75^2)(0.60^2) = .0217 or 46 to 1. Sounds light to me.
Thanks.
Yes, it does sound too light. I was thinking it would be more like hundreds or thousands to one.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
December 4th, 2009 at 9:18:13 PM
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http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2009/nov/25/how-likely-colts-saints-are-go-16-0
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
December 20th, 2009 at 4:34:18 PM
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Well, we won't have two undefeated teams this year at the Superbowl (missed it by that much!)
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
December 24th, 2009 at 10:12:43 AM
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Its a shame, because that would have been the most hyped football game EVER. When I was thinking about this, I thought for sure the Saints had the better chance, given their schedule and the fact that the Vikings were chasing them for the #1 seed. Oh well. Did anyone ever find out if a line was ever set?
December 24th, 2009 at 1:11:23 PM
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Quote: lucky13Its a shame, because that would have been the most hyped football game EVER.
It would even have been impossible to over-hype: historic, unprecedented, once-in-a-lifetime, the two best teams, etc would all be true!
Indy could still amke it undefeated and, if they win, that would be a huge deal, but not the meeting of two undefeated teams.
As to the line, I think we should revise how hard it really is to rech the Suberbowl undefeated. To be sure it's very, very hard, but since the Pats did it two years ago and Indy may do it this year, and New Orleans came close, I'm thinking it's not as hard as conventional wisdom has it.
BTW there's a proposal running around the league to add 1 or two more games to the regular season. That would mean less pre-season games, and would increase the difficulty of attaining an undefeated season.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
January 27th, 2010 at 9:14:45 PM
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Quote: Nareed[Indy needs 3 games to clinch home field advantage. I predict when they win those three games, Maning and other starters will be rested for the playoffs. I don't think they'll abstain from all play, but will probably play the first half, or maybe even one quarter. Otherwise they will get rusty. New Orleans faces a similar situation.
Very nice prediction Nareed. When the Colt's starters were taken out of the Jets game, their faces were priceless. They truly seemed upset. I thought for sure Karma would rear its head in the AFC Championship Game. Would have made for a nice Greek Tragedy with the team you could have eliminated, eliminating you.
Can you imagine if NO and IND finished undefeated? Would have made the game an instant classic. We still got the matchup, just not the records.
I'm heading to Mandalay next weekend for the game. Any interesting Prop bets out there????
January 28th, 2010 at 8:41:39 AM
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Quote: NareedQuote: lucky13Its a shame, because that would have been the most hyped football game EVER.
As to the line, I think we should revise how hard it really is to rech the Suberbowl undefeated. To be sure it's very, very hard, but since the Pats did it two years ago and Indy may do it this year, and New Orleans came close, I'm thinking it's not as hard as conventional wisdom has it.
q]
During realignment the NFL changed its schedueling format. Previously you got opponents with like finishes in previous years. Thus an improving team with a "last place schedule" could do well. Meanwhile playoff teams from the last year played other playoff teams from last year. This resulted in some teams playing each other rarely, sometimes not in 20+ years because one or the other was in a 5 team division and the other a 4 and always finishing different. Once teams in two different conferences played twice in one year!
Now there is a "balanced" schedule. So you get your division, an out-division, and out-conference division, and 2 "like" finishers. So good teams play good teams 2-4 times fewer per season. Thus the 14-2 team that lost to another good team 10 years ago now can play a not-as-good team or two and go 16-0.
Note that 10 years ago there were always a bunch of 9-7 teams, or even 8-8 jockying for tiebreakers in that lastplayoff berth. Now 10-6 tams miss.All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
January 28th, 2010 at 3:56:08 PM
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I like the Saints at +6. Am I crazy?
January 28th, 2010 at 9:02:45 PM
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Quote: lucky13Very nice prediction Nareed. When the Colt's starters were taken out of the Jets game, their faces were priceless. They truly seemed upset. I thought for sure Karma would rear its head in the AFC Championship Game. Would have made for a nice Greek Tragedy with the team you could have eliminated, eliminating you.
Thanks. But I can't take any credit. The Colts' coach is very conservative. Having inherited a championship team, he'd be expected to make only minnimal and necessary changes. Ergo he'll rest his starters just like Tony Dungy did.
By the middle of the second quarter, I thought the Jets were going to win. If they had, Indy couolnd't even resort to the rusty excuse, after having done so well against the Ravens a week before.
The Jets were playing old fashioned Steeler-style football. Meaning lots of running, few passes and a killer defense. Somehow Indy overcame it after most of two quarters. For all the Jets did in the second half, they might as well have stayed in the locker room. Still, I'd watch them. They're a good team with a young QB and a successful rookie coach.
As to prop bets, FWIW I think Indy will trail in the first half, then smash the Saints to bits in the second half.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
