How bad was this bet?
January 26th, 2011 at 7:39:31 PM
permalink
I may have directly asked the wizard this once, but don't think he posted an answer:
I once made a successful Jai Lai bet, but I know it was unsound.
I made the following daily double wager at a Jai Lai Fronton, where the matches had 8 participants each:
The wager was 1,2,3, or 4 in the first match and all 8 numbers in the second match. My number won in the first match, guaranteeing my win. As it turned out, I won more money than I wagered, however I could have won less, had favorites won. This type of wager has 3 possible results:
1 - I lose all of my the money that I paid to cover all of the possibilities
2 - I win money, but it is less money then I had to pay to cover all of the possibilities.
3 - I win more money than I had to pay to cover all of the possibilities.
There are 2 things about this type of wager that have fascinated me:
1 - Assuming (incorrectly) that If I randomly pick half of the field for one of the matches, I have a 50% chance of winning some money on the bet, what are the odds that I make more money than I wagered, If I win any money at all. I know this involves favorites not winning, but can the definition of "favorites" be defined for the purposes of this question?
2 - I know that this "system" can't win in the long run, but if I want to use it, what is the best strategy to use to maximize the potential. I suspect that this would most likely involve selectively picking half the field for the first match, as I would have access to those odds before making the wager, however the odds for the second match would not be available until after the first.
I once made a successful Jai Lai bet, but I know it was unsound.
I made the following daily double wager at a Jai Lai Fronton, where the matches had 8 participants each:
The wager was 1,2,3, or 4 in the first match and all 8 numbers in the second match. My number won in the first match, guaranteeing my win. As it turned out, I won more money than I wagered, however I could have won less, had favorites won. This type of wager has 3 possible results:
1 - I lose all of my the money that I paid to cover all of the possibilities
2 - I win money, but it is less money then I had to pay to cover all of the possibilities.
3 - I win more money than I had to pay to cover all of the possibilities.
There are 2 things about this type of wager that have fascinated me:
1 - Assuming (incorrectly) that If I randomly pick half of the field for one of the matches, I have a 50% chance of winning some money on the bet, what are the odds that I make more money than I wagered, If I win any money at all. I know this involves favorites not winning, but can the definition of "favorites" be defined for the purposes of this question?
2 - I know that this "system" can't win in the long run, but if I want to use it, what is the best strategy to use to maximize the potential. I suspect that this would most likely involve selectively picking half the field for the first match, as I would have access to those odds before making the wager, however the odds for the second match would not be available until after the first.
