Super Bowl 60
Poll
 | 1 vote (20%) | ||
| | 3 votes (60%) | ||
| | 1 vote (20%) | ||
| | 1 vote (20%) | ||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| | 1 vote (20%) | ||
| | 1 vote (20%) | ||
| | 2 votes (40%) | ||
| | 1 vote (20%) | ||
| | 1 vote (20%) |
5 members have voted
Seattle -5
Over/under 46.5
Here are some statistics from the 2025 regular season, of which there are 17 games per team.
Points scored:
Seattle = 483
New England = 490
Points allowed:
Seattle = 292
New England = 320
I estimate points scored as the average of points scored per game and points allowed per game by the opponent.
That suggests Seattle will score 23.6 points and New England 23.
In other words, Seattle should be a 0.5-point favorite, rounding to the nearest half point.
The over/under is the sum of the points scored for each team, or 46.6.
As mentioned, the betting market has Seattle as a 5-point favorite. This suggests that the Patriots +5 are a great bet. Is there something I'm not seeing, like a significant injury?
The question for the poll is who do you think will win?
Quote: WizardHere are the early lines on Super Bowl 60 from Pinnacle Sports.
Seattle -5
Over/under 46.5
Here are some statistics from the 2025 regular season, of which there are 17 games per team.
Points scored:
Seattle = 483
New England = 490
Points allowed:
Seattle = 292
New England = 320
I estimate points scored as the average of points scored per game and points allowed per game by the opponent.
That suggests Seattle will score 23.6 points and New England 23.
In other words, Seattle should be a 0.5-point favorite, rounding to the nearest half point.
**snip**link to original post
The Patriots played the easiest schedule in the NFL this year by quite a bit; the Seahawks played an average schedule.
First, rank all the 32 teams in the NFL this year from 1 to 32. The average ranking of the Patriots opponents in 2025 was 22.2. The average ranking of the Seahawks 2025 opponents was 16.3 - which is pretty average for a league with 32 opponents.
Jets and some after they played for them. I doubt your average fan will get five of them, and I doubt even an expert can name them all. Sam Darnell has a shot at being the eleventh.
Last updated Monday 1/26, 5:45 PM Pacific time
William Hill
Overtime: Yes +1100, No -3000
Safety: Yes +1000, No -2000
Special Teams/Defense TD: Seahawks +430, Patriots +575
Successful Two-Point Conversion: Yes +250, No -330
Octopus (same player scores a TD and the two-point conversion that follows it): Yes +1500, No -6000
Will the opening kickoff be a touchback: Yes +300, No -400
Will the final play be a QB rush (most likely, taking a knee): Yes -190, No +155
MGM
Overtime: Yes +750, No -2500
Safety: Yes +850, No -2000
Onside kick attempt: Yes +333
Two-Point Conversion attempt (not necessarily successful): Yes +130, No -170
Looks like there's a lot of early action on Overtime Yes; the numbers were +1250/-2800 and +775/-2500 earlier in the day
Quote: WizardHere are the early lines on Super Bowl 60 from Pinnacle Sports.
Seattle -5
Over/under 46.5
Here are some statistics from the 2025 regular season, of which there are 17 games per team.
Points scored:
Seattle = 483
New England = 490
Points allowed:
Seattle = 292
New England = 320
I estimate points scored as the average of points scored per game and points allowed per game by the opponent.
That suggests Seattle will score 23.6 points and New England 23.
In other words, Seattle should be a 0.5-point favorite, rounding to the nearest half point.
The over/under is the sum of the points scored for each team, or 46.6.
As mentioned, the betting market has Seattle as a 5-point favorite. This suggests that the Patriots +5 are a great bet. Is there something I'm not seeing, like a significant injury?
The question for the poll is who do you think will win?
link to original post
Are you factoring in the fact that the Patriots played one of the easiest schedules ever? They played 3 games against teams with winning records, and were 1 win, 2 losses. And frankly, the one win was an absolute gift from the Bills. They also just SUCKED yesterday against a Jarrett Stidham QB’d Broncos team. Their offense was pathetic even before the weather turned bad.
That all being said, I’d take the +5.
Quote: gordonm888The Patriots played the easiest schedule in the NFL this year by quite a bit; the Seahawks played an average schedule.
First, rank all the 32 teams in the NFL this year from 1 to 32. The average ranking of the Patriots opponents in 2025 was 22.2. The average ranking of the Seahawks 2025 opponents was 16.3 - which is pretty average for a league with 32 opponents.
link to original post
Good point. So good that I have no crosstalk to offer.
To begin, here is the net points scored by team for the 2025 season in order.
| Team | Scoring Margin |
|---|---|
| Sea | 12.1 |
| NE | 9.9 |
| LAR | 8.7 |
| Jack | 7.5 |
| Hou | 6.4 |
| Buf | 6.1 |
| Den | 4.7 |
| Det | 4 |
| Indy | 3.2 |
| Phily | 2.8 |
| KC | 2 |
| SF | 1.8 |
| Bal | 1.5 |
| GB | 1.5 |
| Chic | 1.4 |
| LAC | 0.8 |
| Min | 0.6 |
| Pitts | -0.8 |
| TB | -1.8 |
| Dal | -2.4 |
| Atl | -2.8 |
| NYG | -3.4 |
| Car | -4 |
| Mia | -4.5 |
| NO | -4.5 |
| Cin | -4.6 |
| Wash | -5.6 |
| Clev | -5.9 |
| Ariz | -7.8 |
| LV | -11.2 |
| Ten | -11.4 |
| NYJ | -11.9 |
Next, here is the regular season schedule of each team with its net points.
| Week | Pats | Sea | Pats | Sea |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | SF | -11.2 | 1.8 |
| 2 | Mia | Pitts | -4.5 | -0.8 |
| 3 | Pitts | NO | -0.8 | -4.5 |
| 4 | Car | Ariz | -4 | -7.8 |
| 5 | Buf | TB | 6.1 | -1.8 |
| 6 | NO | Jack | -4.5 | 7.5 |
| 7 | Ten | Hou | -11.4 | 6.4 |
| 8 | Clev | -5.9 | 0 | |
| 9 | Atl | Wash | -2.8 | -5.6 |
| 10 | TB | Ariz | -1.8 | -7.8 |
| 11 | NYJ | LAR | -11.9 | 8.7 |
| 12 | Cin | Ten | -4.6 | -11.4 |
| 13 | NYG | Min | -3.4 | 0.6 |
| 14 | Atl | 0 | -2.8 | |
| 15 | Buf | Atl | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 16 | Bal | Indy | 1.5 | 3.2 |
| 17 | NYJ | LAR | -11.9 | 8.7 |
| 18 | Mia | Car | -4.5 | -4 |
| Average | -4.0882 | -0.7294 |
So, it's indeed true that the Patriots played weaker teams than the Seahawks. The difference is 3.3588.
If we adjust the point spread by that factor, I now have Seattle as a 4-point favorite. Currently the market is Pats +4.5 or +5.
Bottom line is I'm still making Pats +5 an official pick, but a soft one.
I sure hope Geno Smith won't be the QB for the Seahawks!
Also could this be the first year in a while with non-QB/WR MVP or is it still most likely QB/WR getting it?
I don’t have the stats to run the analysis but it seems like the sort of thing one could analyze and make an Informed bet on.
Quote:Are you factoring in the fact that the Patriots played one of the easiest schedules ever? They played 3 games against teams with winning records, and were 1 win, 2 losses. And frankly, the one win was an absolute gift from the Bills. They also just SUCKED yesterday against a Jarrett Stidham QB’d Broncos team. Their offense was pathetic even before the weather turned bad.
That all being said, I’d take the +5.
Also factor in 2 loses were in the first 3 games, and the 3rd was because they couldn't hold a lead against a Bills team that gave up 31 points that game...and is now watching the game from home.Not only that, the 8th ranked defense beat-in order-the 9th ranked defense, the 2nd ranked defense and the 3rd ranked defense. Furthermore they are undefeated on the road. It's not "how" but "how many". Bet accordingly.
Station Casinos
as of Tuesday 1/27, 8 AM Pacific
Overtime: Yes +700, No -1099
Safety (listed as an over/under, but it is currently 1/2): Yes +700, No -1099
Successful Two-Point Conversion by the offense (as opposed to a defensive runback): Yes +210, No -275
Defensive or Special Teams TD: Yes +210, No -275
The NFL rulebook clearly states that, in the event of an inadvertent whistle, the team in possession of the ball is awarded the ball. After the Denver QB threw the ball, the whistle clearly blew before any New England player touched it, meaning it was still in Denver's possession. It could have been called an incomplete pass or intentional grounding, but under their rules, there is no way it is a turnover.
Quote: ThatDonGuySome early props:
Last updated Monday 1/26, 5:45 PM Pacific time
William Hill
Overtime: Yes +1100, No -3000
Safety: Yes +1000, No -2000
Special Teams/Defense TD: Seahawks +430, Patriots +575
Successful Two-Point Conversion: Yes +250, No -330
Octopus (same player scores a TD and the two-point conversion that follows it): Yes +1500, No -6000
Will the opening kickoff be a touchback: Yes +300, No -400
Will the final play be a QB rush (most likely, taking a knee): Yes -190, No +155
MGM
Overtime: Yes +750, No -2500
Safety: Yes +850, No -2000
Onside kick attempt: Yes +333
Two-Point Conversion attempt (not necessarily successful): Yes +130, No -170
Looks like there's a lot of early action on Overtime Yes; the numbers were +1250/-2800 and +775/-2500 earlier in the day
link to original post
so for no safety, i put down $2000 to win $100?
For no Octopus (never heard of that term b4), i put down $6k to win $100.
I'm thinking math says no Octopus is a better bet than no safety?
Quote: billryanIt seems like the NFL completely blew the backward pass that was initially returned for a touchdown.
The NFL rulebook clearly states that, in the event of an inadvertent whistle, the team in possession of the ball is awarded the ball. After the Denver QB threw the ball, the whistle clearly blew before any New England player touched it, meaning it was still in Denver's possession. It could have been called an incomplete pass or intentional grounding, but under their rules, there is no way it is a turnover.
link to original post
It may seem like the NFL blew it, but the truth is they didn't. A ref blew the whistle, but there was a backwards pass (a live ball) recovered by the defense in the immediate continuing action, which the NFL rule book clearly allows.
Section 7 and or Section 4.3.2.
Quote: billryanRe-read the rules. Who was in possession of the ball when the whistle blew?
link to original post
Re-read the rules, Who recovered the backwards pass in the immediate continuing action while the official blew the whistle?
Rule 15-2-3
But, the answer your question, the Patriots were, according to the rules.
Quote: billryanRe-read the rules. Who was in possession of the ball when the whistle blew?
Section 7 and or Section 4.3.2.
link to original post
They have changed that rule interpretation to allow for the recovery in the ‘immediate continuing action’. We’ve had this discussion before. If I’m a coach I inform my players to ALWAYS recover a ball that is on the ground. That way they are absolved from ‘thinking’ it wasn’t a fumble or that the play was ruled over.
NBA has done the same thing, by the way.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: billryanRe-read the rules. Who was in possession of the ball when the whistle blew?
Section 7 and or Section 4.3.2.
link to original post
They have changed that rule interpretation to allow for the recovery in the ‘immediate continuing action’. We’ve had this discussion before. If I’m a coach I inform my players to ALWAYS recover a ball that is on the ground. That way they are absolved from ‘thinking’ it wasn’t a fumble or that the play was ruled over.
NBA has done the same thing, by the way.
link to original post
It's not that they've changed the interpretation, they changed the rules. But, NFL coaches coach players to always go for the loose ball under these circumstances.
Quote: smoothgrhIs anyone else seeing the "Featured Insight" at the top of this thread stating "The New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks are set for an exciting matchup. The Patriots' strong defense faces off against the Seahawks' dynamic offense led by QB Geno Smith."
I sure hope Geno Smith won't be the QB for the Seahawks!
link to original post
Irony:
It was Tom Brady (minority owner Raiders) who objected to Raiders picking up Sam Darnold (now current Seahawks QB).
Instead, they took Geno smith. (Raiders finished dead last and has #1 pick in next draft)
Could be Raiders in the Superbowl now...
Sam Darnold is 0-4 vs the Patriots in his career.
He's been outscored 23-123, or an average of 25 points per game.
In four games, he's thrown one touchdown and nine interceptions.
Three of those games were with the Jets.
Quote: 100xOddsHow did the Patriots go from bottom team after tom Brady left to Superbowl contenders in 5 yrs?
link to original post
By doing it ‘the right way’. Hit it big on free agents. (Diggs)
Hit a home run at QB (Maye). Correct coach (Vrabel). Generally good roster moves, and by NFL standards, avoided ‘key’ injuries.
And of course, having amongst the easiest schedule in NFL history didn’t hurt. And just squeaking by a team starting Jarrett Stidham isn’t a big resume builder.
I will be betting the under on their team wins next season, regardless if they win the SB or not.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: 100xOddsHow did the Patriots go from bottom team after tom Brady left to Superbowl contenders in 5 yrs?
link to original post
By doing it ‘the right way’. Hit it big on free agents. (Diggs)
Hit a home run at QB (Maye). Correct coach (Vrabel). Generally good roster moves, and by NFL standards, avoided ‘key’ injuries.
And of course, having amongst the easiest schedule in NFL history didn’t hurt. And just squeaking by a team starting Jarrett Stidham isn’t a big resume builder.
I will be betting the under on their team wins next season, regardless if they win the SB or not.
link to original post
They had it so easy, they beat 3 playoff teams with harder strengths of schedule. It's a wonder why Goodell didn't just hand over the Lamar Hunt trophy to Robert Kraft at the beginning of the season and spare us the hassle of the regular season. It's a question all the players and coaches and executives from the teams with harder schedules the Patriots beat in the playoffs can ponder, while watching the game from the stands or at their local watch party.
As for the Wizard's analysis, my response is to quote two old sayings: "There are three types of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics." and "If you torture numbers enough they will confess to anything."
Quote: gordonm888Patriots had the home field advantage in their 1st two playoff games, thanks to their historically-easy regular season schedule. In their third playoff game their opponent played with their backup QB, the Patriots edged ahead by 3 pts and then the weather turned so bad that neither team's offense or field goal units could function. Drake Maye is a very good QB and I'm a huge fan of Mike Vrable but realistically I am picking Seattle to cover the spread.
As for the Wizard's analysis, my response is to quote two old sayings: "There are three types of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics." and "If you torture numbers enough they will confess to anything."
link to original post
They were also undefeated on the road this year.
It's not "how", but "how many".
Quote: GenoDRPhQuote: gordonm888Patriots had the home field advantage in their 1st two playoff games, thanks to their historically-easy regular season schedule. In their third playoff game their opponent played with their backup QB, the Patriots edged ahead by 3 pts and then the weather turned so bad that neither team's offense or field goal units could function. Drake Maye is a very good QB and I'm a huge fan of Mike Vrable but realistically I am picking Seattle to cover the spread.
As for the Wizard's analysis, my response is to quote two old sayings: "There are three types of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics." and "If you torture numbers enough they will confess to anything."
link to original post
They were also undefeated on the road this year.
It's not "how", but "how many".
link to original post
At the end of the Super Bowl, we will most likely have to anoint the Patriots as the second best football team on the planet this year.
I think Geno and I will be having a bet on who wins the AFC East next year…..
it looks to me like a bettor gets a significantly better deal betting on the Super Bowl at Kalshi prediction market which is available in most states - on SOME of the bets, not all - see link
if Seattle covers the 5.5 point spread a .49 bet will pay back $1.00 for a .51 profit
a .49 bet at a typical sportsbook (just for example purposes, I know you can't make a bet that small) would pay back just .45 in profit
over or under 45.5 points scored would pay back .49 in profit on a .51 bet
a .51 bet at a typical sportsbook (just for example purposes, I know you can't bet that small) would pay back just .46 in profit
the difference, when you of course bet much larger amounts seems to me to be considerable
edit - they just changed the spread and the payouts and I just changed my post to reflect that
they may change again very quickly making my post not 100% accurate but there is a good chance there will be a significantly better bet than what a typical sportsbook would offer on at least one side of the bet
I would speculate that Kalshi offers many bets at better odds than many sportsbooks
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsb/super-bowl/kxsb-26
.
I know that's not your point, but i thought I'd point it out
go for it at Kaslhi!
my favorite prop -
TreVeyon Henderson over 16.5 to 19.5 rushing yards depending on which book
he kinna disappeared last game which may account for the low totals - he had a shoulder injury and I saw a report indicating he is now okay
not sure it's accurate but the link shows draftkings offers over 17.5 yards at -109 - it show Hard Rock has him at over 16.5 at -115
I counted him going over the highest total offered - 19.5 yards - in 17 of his last 21 games
https://www.bettingpros.com/nfl/props/treveyon-henderson/rushing-yards/
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HendTr02.htm
.
.
*EDIT* Forgot the O/U and I think Total Score = 50.
Glad to see Pinnacle Sports again... I used them before UIGEA. Yah thats LOOOONG ago.
These are my SuperBowl bets. I was limited on the "both teams safety" bet--I wanted to put $10 on it. My back of the envelope math said true odds were about +19,000, so I liked it a lot at +25,000. Made a bad bet with the "No Pick 6 at -1115" when I later found it at -900. Oh well. Overall, I'm happy with my bets.
I also have a $200 box with pretty decent numbers:
Q1 Pats 8, Seahawks 7
Q2 Pats 7, Seahawks 6
Q3 Pats 0, Seahawks 0
Q4 Pats 7, Seahawks 8
I knew heads is more likely than tails, but +107 sounds like fair odds on tails... anybody know the facts?
Quote: odiousgambitI'm impressed with all those boosts and freeplay
I knew heads is more likely than tails, but +107 sounds like fair odds on tails... anybody know the facts?
link to original post
Caesars had a day when they offered five 25% profit boosts. But max bet was only $5 each. I used it on markets where it would directly arb the other side. I didn't take the arb, but I used "this makes it arbitrage-able" as a proxy for profitable bet. E.G., if the regular price is -150, +130, the 25% profit boost turned +130 to +162.5, which makes it a direct arb to the -150, and I don't even need to care about what the bet is.
What I listed as "Freeplay" isn't true freeplay. Two sportsbooks had an offer that if you bet any Anytime TD scorer bet for $5 and your chosen player was either the first or last TD scorer, each person who picked that player would share a freeplay pool. The pool was like $6 million at one of the books. So I picked a player who was -110/-105 figuring I'm risking the least for a chance at a portion of the freeplay pool. if it hits, there are likely a lot more people who picked that player, so my share will be less than if I picked a longshot, but I'm fine with that.
At +107, tails is definitely +EV for any fair coin. My theory is that the SuperBowl coin may even be biased towards tails a bit because the coin is always a commemorative coin with an elaborate design. Since HEADs design is usually more elaborate, I'm assuming TAILS is a better bet. And FWIW, historically TAILS has been more frequent in previous SBs, total: 31-28. That's why I get the Tails at +100 for $50. At worst it's a fun sweat and may even have some value to it.
Quote: TinManQuote: odiousgambitI'm impressed with all those boosts and freeplay
I knew heads is more likely than tails, but +107 sounds like fair odds on tails... anybody know the facts?
link to original post
Caesars had a day when they offered five 25% profit boosts. But max bet was only $5 each. I used it on markets where it would directly arb the other side. I didn't take the arb, but I used "this makes it arbitrage-able" as a proxy for profitable bet. E.G., if the regular price is -150, +130, the 25% profit boost turned +130 to +162.5, which makes it a direct arb to the -150, and I don't even need to care about what the bet is.
What I listed as "Freeplay" isn't true freeplay. Two sportsbooks had an offer that if you bet any Anytime TD scorer bet for $5 and your chosen player was either the first or last TD scorer, each person who picked that player would share a freeplay pool. The pool was like $6 million at one of the books. So I picked a player who was -110/-105 figuring I'm risking the least for a chance at a portion of the freeplay pool. if it hits, there are likely a lot more people who picked that player, so my share will be less than if I picked a longshot, but I'm fine with that.
At +107, tails is definitely +EV for any fair coin. My theory is that the SuperBowl coin may even be biased towards tails a bit because the coin is always a commemorative coin with an elaborate design. Since HEADs design is usually more elaborate, I'm assuming TAILS is a better bet. And FWIW, historically TAILS has been more frequent in previous SBs, total: 31-28. That's why I get the Tails at +100 for $50. At worst it's a fun sweat and may even have some value to it.
link to original post
A few years ago I had access to +100 bean both heads or tails. So bet as much as I could to come out even of course. But I earned ‘points’ on both sides (different sports books, of course) so it was worth a little free money to me.
I think people are overthinking the bias of the coin. I’m not saying it isn’t biased, but I doubt it is worth really thinking about.
I have always wondered if the NFL always has heads facing up before flipping, or if it is random. Maybe they should use a really good card shuffler instead :)
Quote: harrisA study shows that the side facing up before the flip is more likely to land than the other side. This is related to aerodynamics, not weight distribution.
I have always wondered if the NFL always has heads facing up before flipping, or if it is random. Maybe they should use a really good card shuffler instead :)
link to original post
Doesn't that study refer to coins made for circulation? The Mint has no reason to make its coins balanced. The NFL, on the other hand, has every reason to see that the coin they are making for the coin toss is perfectly balanced. What is true for a random coin toss isn't necessarily true for this coin toss.
Quote: harrisMaybe I am wrong, but in this video, it looks like the referee had the tails side facing up before he flipped the coin (which is what the visiting team chose and won). Because the tails side is shown after heads, maybe referees are more likely to start spinning from that side, which could very partially explain why tails has come up more in the Super Bowl
link to original post
I pay little attention to the coin toss. But I’m pretty sure the referee doesn’t even flip it, at least this time. Didn’t he hand it to Joe Montana to flip? And who the f… knows what orientation it was when Joe flipped it?
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: harrisMaybe I am wrong, but in this video, it looks like the referee had the tails side facing up before he flipped the coin (which is what the visiting team chose and won). Because the tails side is shown after heads, maybe referees are more likely to start spinning from that side, which could very partially explain why tails has come up more in the Super Bowl
link to original post
I pay little attention to the coin toss. But I’m pretty sure the referee doesn’t even flip it, at least this time. Didn’t he hand it to Joe Montana to flip? And who the f… knows what orientation it was when Joe flipped it?
link to original post
The ref usually hands the coin over to some celebrity or contest winner to do the coin flip. I thought it was pretty lame coin flip by Montana, all in all. I was hoping for more robust toss.
Quote: TinManWell, that was a bad SuperBowl for me. Lost the $200 box and lost $218 on bets. Could have been worse. There were a few bets I almost made but did not. Overwhelmingly they would have lost if I did make them.
link to original post
Did you try to collect on the "No Pick Six" bet, hoping that they didn't hear the revised ruling from the statisticians?
Quote: ThatDonGuyQuote: TinManWell, that was a bad SuperBowl for me. Lost the $200 box and lost $218 on bets. Could have been worse. There were a few bets I almost made but did not. Overwhelmingly they would have lost if I did make them.
link to original post
Did you try to collect on the "No Pick Six" bet, hoping that they didn't hear the revised ruling from the statisticians?
link to original post
Both Sportsbooks graded that as a loss (I just checked). For a while the ESPN tracker recorded as “Interception return” in the headline but the details said “…fumble recovery…” Even the announcers first said it was a sack and recovery before changing as the official stats came out. In real time I assumed the ball hit the ground first for a fumble but after seeing the replay it does make more sense as an interception. I still think -900 is a great price for a no pick 6 bet in an nfl game.
