Super Bowl 60

Here are the early lines on Super Bowl 60 from Pinnacle Sports.

Seattle -5
Over/under 46.5

Here are some statistics from the 2025 regular season, of which there are 17 games per team.

Points scored:
Seattle = 483
New England = 490

Points allowed:
Seattle = 292
New England = 320

I estimate points scored as the average of points scored per game and points allowed per game by the opponent.

That suggests Seattle will score 23.6 points and New England 23.

In other words, Seattle should be a 0.5-point favorite, rounding to the nearest half point.

The over/under is the sum of the points scored for each team, or 46.6.

As mentioned, the betting market has Seattle as a 5-point favorite. This suggests that the Patriots +5 are a great bet. Is there something I'm not seeing, like a significant injury?

The question for the poll is who do you think will win?

Quote: Wizard

Here are the early lines on Super Bowl 60 from Pinnacle Sports.

Seattle -5
Over/under 46.5

Here are some statistics from the 2025 regular season, of which there are 17 games per team.

Points scored:
Seattle = 483
New England = 490

Points allowed:
Seattle = 292
New England = 320

I estimate points scored as the average of points scored per game and points allowed per game by the opponent.

That suggests Seattle will score 23.6 points and New England 23.

In other words, Seattle should be a 0.5-point favorite, rounding to the nearest half point.

**snip**link to original post

The Patriots played the easiest schedule in the NFL this year by quite a bit; the Seahawks played an average schedule.

First, rank all the 32 teams in the NFL this year from 1 to 32. The average ranking of the Patriots opponents in 2025 was 22.2. The average ranking of the Seahawks 2025 opponents was 16.3 - which is pretty average for a league with 32 opponents.

Ten men who played QB for the NY Jets have won a Super Bowl. Some with the team, some before they joined the
Jets and some after they played for them. I doubt your average fan will get five of them, and I doubt even an expert can name them all. Sam Darnell has a shot at being the eleventh.

Removing common opponents, Pats opposing teams had 70 combined wins, Seahawks opposing teams had 99 wins. Much stronger opposition for Seattle

Some early props:
Last updated Monday 1/26, 5:45 PM Pacific time

William Hill
Overtime: Yes +1100, No -3000
Safety: Yes +1000, No -2000
Special Teams/Defense TD: Seahawks +430, Patriots +575
Successful Two-Point Conversion: Yes +250, No -330
Octopus (same player scores a TD and the two-point conversion that follows it): Yes +1500, No -6000
Will the opening kickoff be a touchback: Yes +300, No -400
Will the final play be a QB rush (most likely, taking a knee): Yes -190, No +155

MGM
Overtime: Yes +750, No -2500
Safety: Yes +850, No -2000
Onside kick attempt: Yes +333
Two-Point Conversion attempt (not necessarily successful): Yes +130, No -170

Looks like there's a lot of early action on Overtime Yes; the numbers were +1250/-2800 and +775/-2500 earlier in the day

Quote: Wizard

Here are the early lines on Super Bowl 60 from Pinnacle Sports.

Seattle -5
Over/under 46.5

Here are some statistics from the 2025 regular season, of which there are 17 games per team.

Points scored:
Seattle = 483
New England = 490

Points allowed:
Seattle = 292
New England = 320

I estimate points scored as the average of points scored per game and points allowed per game by the opponent.

That suggests Seattle will score 23.6 points and New England 23.

In other words, Seattle should be a 0.5-point favorite, rounding to the nearest half point.

The over/under is the sum of the points scored for each team, or 46.6.

As mentioned, the betting market has Seattle as a 5-point favorite. This suggests that the Patriots +5 are a great bet. Is there something I'm not seeing, like a significant injury?

The question for the poll is who do you think will win?
link to original post

Are you factoring in the fact that the Patriots played one of the easiest schedules ever? They played 3 games against teams with winning records, and were 1 win, 2 losses. And frankly, the one win was an absolute gift from the Bills. They also just SUCKED yesterday against a Jarrett Stidham QB’d Broncos team. Their offense was pathetic even before the weather turned bad.

That all being said, I’d take the +5.

Quote: gordonm888

The Patriots played the easiest schedule in the NFL this year by quite a bit; the Seahawks played an average schedule.

First, rank all the 32 teams in the NFL this year from 1 to 32. The average ranking of the Patriots opponents in 2025 was 22.2. The average ranking of the Seahawks 2025 opponents was 16.3 - which is pretty average for a league with 32 opponents.
link to original post

Good point. So good that I have no crosstalk to offer.

I now have some crosstalk to Gordon's post.

To begin, here is the net points scored by team for the 2025 season in order.

Team	Scoring Margin
Sea	12.1
NE	9.9
LAR	8.7
Jack	7.5
Hou	6.4
Buf	6.1
Den	4.7
Det	4
Indy	3.2
Phily	2.8
KC	2
SF	1.8
Bal	1.5
GB	1.5
Chic	1.4
LAC	0.8
Min	0.6
Pitts	-0.8
TB	-1.8
Dal	-2.4
Atl	-2.8
NYG	-3.4
Car	-4
Mia	-4.5
NO	-4.5
Cin	-4.6
Wash	-5.6
Clev	-5.9
Ariz	-7.8
LV	-11.2
Ten	-11.4
NYJ	-11.9

Next, here is the regular season schedule of each team with its net points.

Week	Pats	Sea	Pats	Sea
1	LV	SF	-11.2	1.8
2	Mia	Pitts	-4.5	-0.8
3	Pitts	NO	-0.8	-4.5
4	Car	Ariz	-4	-7.8
5	Buf	TB	6.1	-1.8
6	NO	Jack	-4.5	7.5
7	Ten	Hou	-11.4	6.4
8	Clev		-5.9	0
9	Atl	Wash	-2.8	-5.6
10	TB	Ariz	-1.8	-7.8
11	NYJ	LAR	-11.9	8.7
12	Cin	Ten	-4.6	-11.4
13	NYG	Min	-3.4	0.6
14		Atl	0	-2.8
15	Buf	Atl	6.1	-2.8
16	Bal	Indy	1.5	3.2
17	NYJ	LAR	-11.9	8.7
18	Mia	Car	-4.5	-4
Average			-4.0882	-0.7294

So, it's indeed true that the Patriots played weaker teams than the Seahawks. The difference is 3.3588.

If we adjust the point spread by that factor, I now have Seattle as a 4-point favorite. Currently the market is Pats +4.5 or +5.

Bottom line is I'm still making Pats +5 an official pick, but a soft one.

Is anyone else seeing the "Featured Insight" at the top of this thread stating "The New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks are set for an exciting matchup. The Patriots' strong defense faces off against the Seahawks' dynamic offense led by QB Geno Smith."


I sure hope Geno Smith won't be the QB for the Seahawks!

Anyone seeing interesting 3+ leg parlays that I could bet on this week at a brick n mortar casino for Superbowl? Almost hit a juicy 5-leg last year but Kelce didn't do like I had hoped he would.

Also could this be the first year in a while with non-QB/WR MVP or is it still most likely QB/WR getting it?

Caesars and DraftKings have a bet: will there be a tie after 0-0? -125 yes; -105 no.

I don’t have the stats to run the analysis but it seems like the sort of thing one could analyze and make an Informed bet on.

Also, in case anyone is looking for no vig action for a sweat, Score Bet has heads/tails at +100 on both sides. Same for which team will win coin flip. I always bet tails on the coin flip on the theory that the coin used is not a real coin and the heads side is likely to be more ornate and probably heavier.

Quote:

Are you factoring in the fact that the Patriots played one of the easiest schedules ever? They played 3 games against teams with winning records, and were 1 win, 2 losses. And frankly, the one win was an absolute gift from the Bills. They also just SUCKED yesterday against a Jarrett Stidham QB’d Broncos team. Their offense was pathetic even before the weather turned bad.

That all being said, I’d take the +5.

Also factor in 2 loses were in the first 3 games, and the 3rd was because they couldn't hold a lead against a Bills team that gave up 31 points that game...and is now watching the game from home.Not only that, the 8th ranked defense beat-in order-the 9th ranked defense, the 2nd ranked defense and the 3rd ranked defense. Furthermore they are undefeated on the road. It's not "how" but "how many". Bet accordingly.