So where do I get the numbers for the global action on a race, to the second? In my experimental runs I've found that as much as 50% of the action is registered in the last minute before post, with the final data coming in after post and that is enough to confound what I am trying to do. Apparently there are people out there thinking like me. Is there anyplace where I can get the data as it comes in, fast enough to act on it? Thanks in advance.
Quote: AutomaticMonkeyHorse racing- the sport of kings! The glory and grandeur, the tradition! And I want to monkey it up- reduce it to a formulaic, math-heavy, marginally but reliably profitable endeavor.
So where do I get the numbers for the global action on a race, to the second? In my experimental runs I've found that as much as 50% of the action is registered in the last minute before post, with the final data coming in after post and that is enough to confound what I am trying to do. Apparently there are people out there thinking like me. Is there anyplace where I can get the data as it comes in, fast enough to act on it? Thanks in advance.
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I’m pretty sure the staggering of results and also the secret of which results it’s getting its results from is what makes them fair. And although your not the last person to do this I’m pretty sure what I just said is going to stop you from correlating which machines are using which races
Quote: AutomaticMonkeySo where do I get the numbers for the global action on a race, to the second? In my experimental runs I've found that as much as 50% of the action is registered in the last minute before post, with the final data coming in after post and that is enough to confound what I am trying to do.
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These aren't exactly about the lag in pari-mutuel pool numbers, but these articles do explain in part why you're seeing a lot of last-second action:
Computer Assisted Wagering (CAW): Anatomy of a Deal (Thoroughbred Daily News, 3/20/2024) - this one makes it sounds like the tracks can make deals with specific bettors
The Good, The Bad, The Future of Computer Betting on Races (Horse Racing Nation, 7/8/2024)
As for where you can get up-to-date betting pool numbers, does anybody have that information? Okay, it has been a while since I have been to a track, but even at the track, the numbers have a little refresh lag in them.
Quote: ThatDonGuyQuote: AutomaticMonkeySo where do I get the numbers for the global action on a race, to the second? In my experimental runs I've found that as much as 50% of the action is registered in the last minute before post, with the final data coming in after post and that is enough to confound what I am trying to do.
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These aren't exactly about the lag in pari-mutuel pool numbers, but these articles do explain in part why you're seeing a lot of last-second action:
Computer Assisted Wagering (CAW): Anatomy of a Deal (Thoroughbred Daily News, 3/20/2024) - this one makes it sounds like the tracks can make deals with specific bettors
The Good, The Bad, The Future of Computer Betting on Races (Horse Racing Nation, 7/8/2024)
As for where you can get up-to-date betting pool numbers, does anybody have that information? Okay, it has been a while since I have been to a track, but even at the track, the numbers have a little refresh lag in them.
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Great information, thank you! I had a feeling something along these lines was happening.
This is what I was planning on doing: Here's what I know about horses- they have 4 legs, they eat hay, and they run fast. But I can start out with the assumption that the action in the win pool comes from people who actually know something about horses, and use that as a gauge to look for bargains in the place, show, and exacta pools. So I need real time information about all those pools. Now I would find something like that, usually the kind of thing where so much is on win that the bet will pay better on place or even show, and that's a bargain 15 seconds before post, but 15 seconds after post the numbers update one more time and someone stepped all over my bargain! So according to these links there are apparently cartels doing exactly this, and they have some kind of special access, and surely are in communication with one another.
Armed with that knowledge, my challenge could now be predicting what these CAW outfits are going to do before they do it and parasitizing them specifically.
Quote: AutomaticMonkey
Here's what I know about horses- they have 4 legs, they eat hay, and they run fast.
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this is exactly what i know about horses too