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I just got some new data, for the 2015 to 2022 seasons. After much data crunching, here are the results of flat betting common bets of 1889 games.

Home vs. Visitor against the spread. Resolved bets only.

Outcome | Count | Prob | EV |
---|---|---|---|

Home | 880 | 48.01% | -8.35% |

Visitor | 953 | 51.99% | -0.74% |

Underdog vs. Favorite against the spread. Resolved bets only.

Outcome | Count | Prob | EV |
---|---|---|---|

Dog | 898 | 50.53% | -3.52% |

Fav | 879 | 49.47% | -5.57% |

Under vs. Over against the total. Resolved bets only.

Outcome | Count | Prob | EV |
---|---|---|---|

Under | 963 | 51.44% | -1.79% |

Over | 909 | 48.56% | -7.30% |

Underdogs on the money line. These bets are made when the underdog pays more than even money (thus excluding situations like -105/-115 lines). At bets are one unit.

Total bet = 1825 units

Total win = -16.94 units

EV = -0.93%

Favorites on the money line. These bets are made when the underdog pays more than even money (thus excluding situations like -105/-115 lines). At bets are one unit.

Total bet = 1825 units

Total win = -102.925 units

EV = -5.64%

In closing, no big surprises. Underdogs and Unders continue to be the better bets. I find the value in visitor bets to be consistent with my older data. In the years examined, the visiting team scored on average 1.64 more points only. The old adage is the home field advantage is worth 3 points. Perhaps this adage needs to be updated.

Quote:unJonThanks for this. What do your data show for road underdogs?

link to original post

I didn't look at that specific group, but will add that to my list as both dogs and road teams are the right side of a bet.

Quote:WizardThe old adage is the home field advantage is worth 3 points. Perhaps this adage needs to be updated.

I agree, I believe that number has been exaggerated for the last 10 years.

Quote:unJonThanks for this. What do your data show for road underdogs?

link to original post

This is going to make a good "Ask the Wizard" question.

I looked only at visiting underdogs where the points spread was 3 or more.

Against the spread there were 501 wins, 441 losses, and 35 pushes. Of bets resolved, the win rate was 53.2%. Counting the pushes, I get an advantage of 1.48%.

Looking at the road underdogs against the money line, betting one unit per game, I show 977 bets made with a net win of 9.4 units. The equates to an advantage of 0.96%.

However, a standard deviation of win probability is 3.05%. So, don't get too excited. In my opinion, road underdogs are probably about an even bet and the historic wins over the sample size is just short term luck.

do you feel that this new data is more accurate than the data at the link because of its recency_______?

I'm assuming the 2 data sets have not been incorporated together

in the data at the link you tracked over 3,000 games

in this data you show all underdogs losing significantly less - 0.57%

and you show all away winning at 1.34% and road dogs winning at 2.57%

I'm thinking that you will probably indicate that the differences are trifling and insignificant due to standard deviation

but I would like to be sure about that

thanks

edit - above you state you looked at visiting dogs only when the spread was 3 or more

I'm assuming that's not the same as in the older linked data

.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/

.

Maybe I'll redo the visiting underdog analysis for all underdogs. However, I feel in my gut that it takes at least a 3-point spread for a team to be a real underdog.

Quote:WizardHowever, I've learned a long time ago that the more effort I put into something, the less people seem to care.

well, just to let you know I think your data compilation re the NFL is really excellent and helpful

and I really do appreciate it and think that others also appreciate it

.

Quote:WizardI looked only at visiting underdogs where the points spread was 3 or more.

Against the spread there were 501 wins, 441 losses, and 35 pushes. Of bets resolved, the win rate was 53.2%. Counting the pushes, I get an advantage of 1.48%.

Looking at the road underdogs against the money line, betting one unit per game, I show 977 bets made with a net win of 9.4 units. The equates to an advantage of 0.96%.

link to original post

By request, here is the same analysis looking at all visiting underdogs, counting points spreads of 1 to 2.5.

Wins = 605

Losses = 531

Push = 37

The win rate of bets resolved is 53.3%. Player advantage of +1.62%.

So, the inclusion of those extra games actually helped a little.

Side | Wins | Losses | Total |
---|---|---|---|

Away | 147 | 36 | 183 |

Home | 140 | 60 | 200 |

Total | 287 | 96 | 383 |

So, 74.9% win rate. My previous data, as indicated in my page on teasers had a win probability of 73.2%.

Unfortunately, off the board teaser pays aren't what they used to be, so probably no play here unless there are lots of qualifying bets in the same week.