Parlay Thoughts and Advice

Quote: TomG

Quote: SOOPOO

If you somehow have information that a line might move that is not available to the books, once again, good for you!

It is possible to make good bets using only publicly available information. I am fairly confident that inside information and being lucky are some of the rarer reasons people are able to make good bets and profit.

For those who aren't going to make good bets, isn't hedging as equally unwise as any every other bet? The 'never hedge' theory is unnecessary.

For those who are going to make good bets, the math says it is correct, along with like at least five other examples (some specific and some broad).
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For those who aren't going to make good bets, making two bets is twice as unwise as making one bet? Thus, the advice to never hedge.

Words have meaning.

Quote:

ar·bi·trage /ˈärbəˌträZH/ noun
the simultaneous buying and selling of securities, currency, or commodities in different markets or in derivative forms in order to take advantage of differing prices for the same asset.

If you are making a bet and then making the opposite bet later, that is speculation, not arbitrage. Making an opposite bet later to reduce your value at risk is hedging, not arbitrage. If you are making opposite bets at the same time to lock in a profit, that is arbitrage. Arbitrage allows traders and hedge funds to take much larger positions than they could take on one side of the trade. I agree that for sports bettors that don't have a large bankroll, it may be easier to make a certain amount of profit per day doing large arbitrage bets compared to making a small bet with an edge on one side.

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Quote: Mental

If you are making a bet and then making the opposite bet later, that is speculation, not arbitrage. Making an opposite bet later to reduce your value at risk is hedging, not arbitrage. If you are making opposite bets at the same time to lock in a profit, that is arbitrage. Arbitrage allows traders and hedge funds to take much larger positions than they could take on one side of the trade. I agree that for sports bettors that don't have a large bankroll, it may be easier to make a certain amount of profit per day doing large arbitrage bets compared to making a small bet with an edge on one side.

Based on your definitions, speculating or hedging is probably going to be much better than arbitrage, and it is correct, so long as we choose to make good bets. If we choose to make bad bets, then perhaps we should change that. Just today there was injury news against the Vikings, Heat, and Mavs. If I bet the other side right away it would have been pennies. Waiting just 15 minutes is usually a lot better. Often I'll wait hours until close to game time. Sometimes things overreact and it's best to bet the opposite side quickly. The one thing that is certain is the math behind the theory of always hedging; and despite all these circular discussions that touch on vocabulary and other things, no one has questioned the math. Of course, practice can very often be different from theory.