Football Power Index

When I see game lines listed, I often see ESPN’s Football Power Index included. FPI article here https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Football_Power_Index

There are some large discrepancies between the FPI and the moneyline. For instance, the FPI gives the Bengals a 33.2% chance of beating Jags, while the the moneyline is +340. If the FPI is accurate, that’s a 46% advantage taking Bengals +340

What do you think? Could the moneyline be that far off, or is the FPI unreliable? Analyses have shown NFL betting lines to be very accurate over the long-term, though I believe most of those analyses are more focused on point spreads instead of moneylines

Quote: Ace2

When I see game lines listed, I often see ESPN’s Football Power Index included. FPI article here https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Football_Power_Index

There are some large discrepancies between the FPI and the moneyline. For instance, the FPI gives the Bengals a 33.2% chance of beating Jags, while the the moneyline is +340. If the FPI is accurate, that’s a 46% advantage taking Bengals +340

What do you think? Could the moneyline be that far off, or is the FPI unreliable? Analyses have shown NFL betting lines to very accurate over the long-term, though I believe most of those analyses are more focused on point spread instead of moneylines
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you can see in the Espn link that their indication of the Jags having a 66.8% chance of winning - they then say by an average of 5.8 points

but on the covers.com link you can see that 2 of the books have the Jags as 8.5 faves, one has them as 9.0 and one has them at 9.5

I also believe the public lines (spread and moneyline) are usually accurate - so then it would seem that Espn's FPI is off


https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39008461/nfl-week-13-picks-schedule-fantasy-football-odds-injuries-stats-2023

https://www.covers.com/sport/football/nfl/linemovement/cin-at-jac/284836

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Quote: Ace2

When I see game lines listed, I often see ESPN’s Football Power Index included. FPI article here https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Football_Power_Index

There are some large discrepancies between the FPI and the moneyline. For instance, the FPI gives the Bengals a 33.2% chance of beating Jags, while the the moneyline is +340. If the FPI is accurate, that’s a 46% advantage taking Bengals +340

What do you think? Could the moneyline be that far off, or is the FPI unreliable? Analyses have shown NFL betting lines to very accurate over the long-term, though I believe most of those analyses are more focused on point spread instead of moneylines
link to original post

Most of the Bengals ‘power’ was accumulated with Joe Burrow as QB. He’s not anymore this year.

The Bills power ranking has not caught up to their injuries. They lost their best secondary player (White). Their best lineman (Jones). Their best linebacker (Milano). Their best tight end (Knox). Both starting safeties have missed games.

The power index thing just is not good at figuring in injuries.

How do you rate the ‘power’ of a team needing to use Joe Flacco?

Quote: SOOPOO

How do you rate the ‘power’ of a team needing to use Joe Flacco?

Higher than if they are using Thompson-Robinson

I mostly treat FPI as one more data point. It’s decent for spotting mismatches early, but I never lean on it alone; comparing it with actual lines helps me catch inflated spreads.

I’ve been keeping track of matches with live football scores with real-time updates, and it’s been a game changer for following multiple leagues at once. I like that I can favorite my teams and get quick stats like xG and player ratings without digging around. If you’re trying to stay on top of several fixtures at the same time, it makes things way smoother.