Sports betting chatter

So seems like I must have done, or be doing something, that has HR giving me these great opportunities.

Boatloads today. NCAAB

Texas Tech ML at +153. They are UNDERDOGS!

Nebraska +10.5 at +187. The fair line for -110 is 11.5. I’ll sell that single point to turn -110 to +187 every time.

Yesterday Twolves were +243. Fair line would have been around +130

Embiid over 24.5 was +167. The fair line for -100 was over 23.5. One point got me up to +167.

Bedard to score a goal fair line around +160. Got +243. (It lost).

Why I love this. Two nights ago had UCLA +10.5 at +148. The regular -110 line at the other sites was +10. So could lock in $$ easily. Game finished at exactly 10!

Today fair line on Tua passing is 196.5. You can get +173 on over 199.5. That extra ‘+73’ for 3 yards makes it a slight underdog but substantially +EV.
I think the weather may hinder passing, but I’m hoping a WR might break one or two long ones. Also got Waddle over 79.5 at +243. His fair O/U is 64.5.

Treasure trove today. Spurs ML at +201. Fair line around +125

Avalanche -1.5 at +148. Fair line around -120.

Wild to win at + 162. Fair line around -102.

McDavid to score two points at +167. Fair line around + 105.

I have (before these offers were available) Knicks -2.5 in a parlay. So rooting for the Knicks to NOT win by one or two!

The recent Soopoo advice has panned out quite well for Virginia sports betting; sometimes a different state matters

I'm moving away from the same game parlay boosts, with these there is no math to back up decisions since they seem to be able to jack up SGP house edge as they please, with no transparency. DK has had a 30% boost for any sport 2 leg SGP, Bet365 a frequent 50% boost on specific 3-leg. It's easy to believe these are at least marginally +EV, but I am no longer sure. All I can go by is that I seem to be just treading water with these, bankroll perhaps staying the same or perhaps on a slight decline, and more and more I'm just seeing these and nothing else. If it keeps up I'll just cash out of these outfits

Quote: SOOPOO

Treasure trove today. Spurs ML at +201. Fair line around +125

Avalanche -1.5 at +148. Fair line around -120.

Wild to win at + 162. Fair line around -102.

McDavid to score two points at +167. Fair line around + 105.

I have (before these offers were available) Knicks -2.5 in a parlay. So rooting for the Knicks to NOT win by one or two!
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I win if 2/4 hit. But 3/4 hit so $$. Lost my Knicks parlay anyway. It seems counterintuitive, but the more I win, the better my offers get.

As far as Odious’s comments, the 30% SGP /SGP + profit boosts are only moderately +EV. You can check by doing 3 50/50 picks, and if they are over +700 with the boost it is +EV.
Example today…. Memphis + points/under, Chicago + points (all 3 50/50 chance, non correlated) pays +737. So it’s 737 when 700 is ‘fair’. You aren’t getting rich on that extra 37, but it is +EV.
When the profit boosts are 50% it’s worth a LOT more.

Had a ‘no risk’ jai-alai bet offer. Bet $25 and if you lose you get a $25 bonus bet to use on jai-alai. I lost. Next day the bonus bet appears on my ap. Butttt…. Jai-alai season is over. Not sure when it starts again but not soon. Bet expires in 7 days. I message HardRock requesting that I can use the bet on a different sport. After some back and forth the guy (it’s a human; you can tell from the terrible grammar), tells me unfortunately there is no way they can change the terms of that bonus bet. He’s sorry.

But he says they will issue me a new $25 unrestricted bonus bet. He asks if that is ok? Like I had an emotional attachment to the original bonus bet or something. Frankly, it was much better service than I received in similar situations n the past on my NY accounts.

Quote: SOOPOO

As far as Odious’s comments, the 30% SGP /SGP + profit boosts are only moderately +EV. You can check by doing 3 50/50 picks, and if they are over +700 with the boost it is +EV.
Example today…. Memphis + points/under, Chicago + points (all 3 50/50 chance, non correlated) pays +737. So it’s 737 when 700 is ‘fair’. You aren’t getting rich on that extra 37, but it is +EV.
When the profit boosts are 50% it’s worth a LOT more.
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I'll have to study this , certainly I get +700 being fair bet. In the past when I have checked out regular parlays, the end result is true to the math, but *same game* parlays were not. I think they can make a case that *everything is coordinated* in a SGP and adjust with no transparency as to what they did!

To complicate things, I have bet SGPs many times, but never a SGPx [as it’s usually designated]. I thought a SGPx meant you had to combine two SGPs which would mean minimum 4 legs. Instead I know understand it also means you can combine a SGP with a straight bet.

Anyway, this morning I looked at upcoming NFL. With the new site, I combined a ‘spread bet’ and an ‘under’ bet SPG, and added a straight bet from another game. All odds shown as -110 each leg, and this was -110|-110 for both sides of each bet, including the straight bet, meaning that the oddsmakers thought the true fair odds were even, I have to think, as a separate bet.

I did the same thing on 2 different sites. On a true 3-leg parlay [not a same game] the final odds should be +595 or +596 according to these sites. On our now go-to site, for the SGPx as described above, the odds though were +509 instead. On the other site, +549. So I do think this shows that these sites are allowed to just do whatever the hell they want with SGPs, and use whatever algorithm they want to dream up, seeing as how these two above don’t match. As Soopoo points out, these bets are all just as non-coordinated as a 3-different-game parlay, but just because it is an SGP, they can and will screw the bettor … I guess the lame reason given, should they have to defend this, would be that all bets in a same game bet have coordination in a certain subscribed-to theory.

A 30% boost offer sends the odds to +662 and +713, resp., so in the latter case a 30% boost gives a small player edge assuming that 50-50 chances for each leg is accurate. Fyi I tried to put together a regular SPG combining 3 -110 bets for tonight’s game, but everything was heavily coordinated that I could find to do so with, and the final odds varied widely depending on which side you took, showing this.

I think I am sticking with my conclusion that 30% boosts with regular parlays should be +EV, but for SGPs they are inadequate entirely. For SGPXs done the way I know you can do now, 2 leg then adding a straight bet not in the same game, and depending on the site you use, those might be roughly considered break-even.

It’s not hard, OG. I plugged in Rams +1.5/ over and Jags +3. Fair would pay +700. I’m getting +737. So as I said before, slightly +EV. Plus I’m getting some ‘points’ as well. They are allowing me to bet $250 on these. So around $5 in +EV on these. But of course LOTS of variance.

The 50% ones are super easy to make very positive. And if taking these scraps gives me access to the bets I’ve detailed in my previous few posts I’ll take the small + EV to get me the big +EV.

Quote: SOOPOO

It’s not hard, OG. I plugged in Rams +1.5/ over and Jags +3. Fair would pay +700. I’m getting +737. So as I said before, slightly +EV. Plus I’m getting some ‘points’ as well. They are allowing me to bet $250 on these. So around $5 in +EV on these. But of course LOTS of variance.

The 50% ones are super easy to make very positive. And if taking these scraps gives me access to the bets I’ve detailed in my previous few posts I’ll take the small + EV to get me the big +EV.
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50% is another matter and I am only now realizing how to bet SGPx and not to keep it SGP period. Thanks for the help

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: SOOPOO

It’s not hard, OG. I plugged in Rams +1.5/ over and Jags +3. Fair would pay +700. I’m getting +737. So as I said before, slightly +EV. Plus I’m getting some ‘points’ as well. They are allowing me to bet $250 on these. So around $5 in +EV on these. But of course LOTS of variance.

The 50% ones are super easy to make very positive. And if taking these scraps gives me access to the bets I’ve detailed in my previous few posts I’ll take the small + EV to get me the big +EV.
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50% is another matter and I am only now realizing how to bet SGPx and not to keep it SGP period. Thanks for the help
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But your overall impression of HardRock’s SGP lines is correct. Way worse than other sites. But if they bake in a certain amount for parlays, when you find one that IS correlated but no additional ‘baked in’ amount, that can be valuable.

Today Bruins ML +194. Fair line around +120.
Lightning -1.5 at +201. Fair line around +135.

When I’d get these in NY I’d take the free $$ by betting opposite on a different site. Here in Florida I am actually gambling because it certainly is possible I’ll lose both bets.