Sports betting chatter
Quote: SkinnyTonyQuote: DRichJust placed a small bet on Michigan +5.5 against Oklahoma. I have not seen either team play yet, but the line just seems to big. This game should be lined at 3.
link to original post
I had a boosted Oklahoma "double result" (be ahead at halftime and win) bet and also (separate bet) I sold a point and bet Oklahoma -6.5 to use a 50% profit boost.
So, that more than paid for my Iowa/Iowa St. over debacle.
Lots of teams made it to 70+ pts today (and one made it to 69). I'm guessing that your overs when "total minus line < 10" bets did well.
link to original post
Good pick on Oklahoma. Bryce Underwood looked like a true Freshman this week.
I only bet two of the overs on the total-spread picks and fortunately they both won. As an Iowa graduate I follow them closely and I can't imagine betting them over on just about any game. I did have high hopes for Granowski but I am rethinking that now. I did have Iowa +3.5 for a small winner.
Overall, I had a decent weekend at 7-2.
Quote: AutomaticMonkeyThat's average pressure due to altitude. I'm talking about something like a low pressure front hitting midgame, and all of a sudden breaking balls don't break so much and get hit really hard. Or high pressure and now they are having trouble throwing them for strikes. That is a real physical effect and there is no way around it but to adjust your spin. They joked about it but Alan Shepard's golf balls did not hook or slice at all due to the lack of any atmosphere at all. That will apply in a dome too because there is no pressure seal.
link to original post
After over 30,000 games were examined, the only two stadiums where atmospheric pressure plays a factor are Coors Field and Seattle. Games played in high humidity in Seatle result in flyballs losing 15-20 feet so many flyballs stay in the park.
Wind speed has an effect, but wind velocity is much more critical.
Quote: SOOPOOI put in the ‘ghost parlay bet’. Only +518 if I win all legs. Had to be NFL so didn’t do ‘the plan’.
Commanders
Bengals
Cards
Broncos
and Ravens +1.5. Top 4 are moderate favorites and Ravens the usual -110. I will be rooting against Ravens no matter what the status of my bet is.
So all 4 favorites won. I win no matter what. Just of course more if Ravens cover. Can I put in for a Bills 1 point win?
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: SOOPOOI put in the ‘ghost parlay bet’. Only +518 if I win all legs. Had to be NFL so didn’t do ‘the plan’.
Commanders
Bengals
Cards
Broncos
and Ravens +1.5. Top 4 are moderate favorites and Ravens the usual -110. I will be rooting against Ravens no matter what the status of my bet is.
So all 4 favorites won. I win no matter what. Just of course more if Ravens cover. Can I put in for a Bills 1 point win?
link to original post
Congrats!! I am impressed that you went against the Bills, it is rare to find people betting against their local team. Unlike most people, I bet against my favorite teams at about the same rate that I bet on them. I value money much more than a personal rooting interest.
I won the lower tier , having one leg betting on the Lions to win.Quote: SOOPOOQuote: SOOPOOI put in the ‘ghost parlay bet’. Only +518 if I win all legs. Had to be NFL so didn’t do ‘the plan’.
Commanders
Bengals
Cards
Broncos
and Ravens +1.5. Top 4 are moderate favorites and Ravens the usual -110. I will be rooting against Ravens no matter what the status of my bet is.
So all 4 favorites won. I win no matter what. Just of course more if Ravens cover. Can I put in for a Bills 1 point win?
link to original post
One good thing about the bet was that it wasn't a same game parlay
Generally, though, I'm skeptical that forgiveness for one leg is +EV, and I'd decline to bet if it was same game parlay
good question for the Wizard , are these type bets +Ev?
I decline to bet either way if it's 'my' team.Quote: DRich
Congrats!! I am impressed that you went against the Bills, it is rare to find people betting against their local team. Unlike most people, I bet against my favorite teams at about the same rate that I bet on them. I value money much more than a personal rooting interest.
link to original post
If you bet on them to win, you can get disgusted with them, I've seen sad cases of people turning against their team because of betting
If you bet on them to lose, winning the bet isn't fun
And, obviously, you never know if your emotions are getting involved, making you make bad decisions
In the case of soopoo here, he was working the spread. That is a little different, I do things like that sometimes if not too involved emotionally
just realized you did 5 legs. Wow, why?Quote: SOOPOOQuote: SOOPOOI put in the ‘ghost parlay bet’. Only +518 if I win all legs. Had to be NFL so didn’t do ‘the plan’.
Commanders
Bengals
Cards
Broncos
and Ravens +1.5. Top 4 are moderate favorites and Ravens the usual -110. I will be rooting against Ravens no matter what the status of my bet is.
So all 4 favorites won. I win no matter what. Just of course more if Ravens cover. Can I put in for a Bills 1 point win?
link to original post
Quote: odiousgambitI decline to bet either way if it's 'my' team.
If you bet on them to win, you can get disgusted with them, I've seen sad cases of people turning against their team because of betting
If you bet on them to lose, winning the bet isn't fun
And, obviously, you never know if your emotions are getting involved, making you make bad decisions
In the case of soopoo here, he was working the spread. That is a little different, I do things like that sometimes if not too involved emotionally
link to original post
Many people agree with you but I think it is foolish. Most fans know their team much better than they know other teams. If you are going to bet on football, bet the games involving the teams you know best. Gambling isn't about having fun, it is about winning money. Take all of the emotion out and treat it no differently than you would a coin flip where you know more about the coin than the other person. I don't know that I have been emotional about a football game or a bet in over 20 years.
Makes sense but a fan, short for fanatic, *is* a fool. I was brought up to be a more disciplined person than would allow that, but I found out for myself later that is a lot of fun being a fan, and I think it's something to embrace. You should be silly about some things in my book, have some funQuote: DRichMany people agree with you but I think it is foolish. Most fans know their team much better than they know other teams. If you are going to bet on football, bet the games involving the teams you know best. Gambling isn't about having fun, it is about winning money. Take all of the emotion out and treat it no differently than you would a coin flip where you know more about the coin than the other person. I don't know that I have been emotional about a football game or a bet in over 20 years.
link to original post
PS I'll make exceptions if an offer involving a favorite team is just something I can't resist
Quote: odiousgambitI decline to bet either way if it's 'my' team.Quote: DRich
Congrats!! I am impressed that you went against the Bills, it is rare to find people betting against their local team. Unlike most people, I bet against my favorite teams at about the same rate that I bet on them. I value money much more than a personal rooting interest.
link to original post
If you bet on them to win, you can get disgusted with them, I've seen sad cases of people turning against their team because of betting
If you bet on them to lose, winning the bet isn't fun
And, obviously, you never know if your emotions are getting involved, making you make bad decisions
In the case of soopoo here, he was working the spread. That is a little different, I do things like that sometimes if not too involved emotionally
link to original post
Being a Giants fan is one reason why I never got into betting football. I won't bet against them, and as they were consistently among the worse teams in the NFL 1976-1982, I thought not betting against them put me at a handicap.
Quote: odiousgambitMakes sense but a fan, short for fanatic, *is* a fool. I was brought up to be a more disciplined person than would allow that, but I found out for myself later that is a lot of fun being a fan, and I think it's something to embrace. You should be silly about some things in my book, have some funQuote: DRichMany people agree with you but I think it is foolish. Most fans know their team much better than they know other teams. If you are going to bet on football, bet the games involving the teams you know best. Gambling isn't about having fun, it is about winning money. Take all of the emotion out and treat it no differently than you would a coin flip where you know more about the coin than the other person. I don't know that I have been emotional about a football game or a bet in over 20 years.
link to original post
PS I'll make exceptions if an offer involving a favorite team is just something I can't resist
link to original post
I understand fandom, it just doesn't correlate well with sports betting. If you are not going to bet on games where you have the most information, you should not be betting on sports at all. Be a fan, not a sports bettor.
Quote: DRichQuote: odiousgambitMakes sense but a fan, short for fanatic, *is* a fool. I was brought up to be a more disciplined person than would allow that, but I found out for myself later that is a lot of fun being a fan, and I think it's something to embrace. You should be silly about some things in my book, have some funQuote: DRichMany people agree with you but I think it is foolish. Most fans know their team much better than they know other teams. If you are going to bet on football, bet the games involving the teams you know best. Gambling isn't about having fun, it is about winning money. Take all of the emotion out and treat it no differently than you would a coin flip where you know more about the coin than the other person. I don't know that I have been emotional about a football game or a bet in over 20 years.
link to original post
PS I'll make exceptions if an offer involving a favorite team is just something I can't resist
link to original post
I understand fandom, it just doesn't correlate well with sports betting. If you are not going to bet on games where you have the most information, you should not be betting on sports at all. Be a fan, not a sports bettor.
link to original post
Exactly. There are hundreds of revenue streams out there, I'd rather bet on things I'm not emotionally attached to.
Quote: DRich
I understand fandom, it just doesn't correlate well with sports betting. If you are not going to bet on games where you have the most information, you should not be betting on sports at all. Be a fan, not a sports bettor.
link to original post
Ah, but the way these sports books are run, you don't need to outsmart the oddsmakers. You just need to be able to spot offers and know how to play them. I wouldn't last long trying to make money betting sports in the regular way.
Quote: odiousgambitQuote: DRich
I understand fandom, it just doesn't correlate well with sports betting. If you are not going to bet on games where you have the most information, you should not be betting on sports at all. Be a fan, not a sports bettor.
link to original post
Ah, but the way these sports books are run, you don't need to outsmart the oddsmakers. You just need to be able to spot offers and know how to play them. I wouldn't last long trying to make money betting sports in the regular way.
link to original post
Yes, but you should still try to use the promos on the best bets you can.
Sadly, Hard Rock sports book has now excluded me from all boosts and promos and I am very sad about it.
Quote: odiousgambitjust realized you did 5 legs. Wow, why?Quote: SOOPOOQuote: SOOPOOI put in the ‘ghost parlay bet’. Only +518 if I win all legs. Had to be NFL so didn’t do ‘the plan’.
Commanders
Bengals
Cards
Broncos
and Ravens +1.5. Top 4 are moderate favorites and Ravens the usual -110. I will be rooting against Ravens no matter what the status of my bet is.
So all 4 favorites won. I win no matter what. Just of course more if Ravens cover. Can I put in for a Bills 1 point win?
link to original post
link to original post
No ‘good’ reason. I did like all 4 of the favorites a lot. For anyone questioning if this is +EV, it certainly is. Just the exact calculation and the ‘perfect’ way to exploit it is above my pay grade.
As for betting against ‘my team’, I can easily separate my bets from my ‘rooting’ interests. I actually had a few other parlays that were poised to hit ‘bigly’ but lost due to having Ravens moneyline as the last leg. I can promise you, I was happy those bets lost. One was pretty big…. Jackson over rushing yards, Jackson rushing TD, Cook over pass/rush, Allen over rush yards/ Ravens ML. I think it was around 25-1.
My ridiculous ‘good beat’ today was in soccer. Needed Italy to beat Israel. Actually was watching a bit and late in first half Israel was up 1-0. Check phone and with 3 minutes to go Italy up 4-2. Israel scores TWO goals in next 3 minutes…. But Italy wins it a minute into stoppage time. 5-4. Italy’s goalkeeper is considered one of the best in the world.
I got so many risk free bets/profit boosts tonight I think I win money on all possible results. More if Minnesota wins.
If I have kept up with your situation, this FL sportsbook had lousy boosts and promos due to having no competitionQuote: DRichQuote: odiousgambitQuote: DRich
I understand fandom, it just doesn't correlate well with sports betting. If you are not going to bet on games where you have the most information, you should not be betting on sports at all. Be a fan, not a sports bettor.
link to original post
Ah, but the way these sports books are run, you don't need to outsmart the oddsmakers. You just need to be able to spot offers and know how to play them. I wouldn't last long trying to make money betting sports in the regular way.
link to original post
Yes, but you should still try to use the promos on the best bets you can.
Sadly, Hard Rock sports book has now excluded me from all boosts and promos and I am very sad about it.
link to original post
If you were able to beat them with that situation in effect, my hat is off to you
The online sportsbooks that want to clip your wings love 4 leg parlays, which tells you something
Quote: odiousgambitIf I have kept up with your situation, this FL sportsbook had lousy boosts and promos due to having no competition
If you were able to beat them with that situation in effect, my hat is off to you
link to original post
Last year I was getting some promos but they were small and usually less than $50. In the last month I have zero boosts or promos. I still anticipate beating them on college football even without the free money. Of course, last year I did lose on college football but I hope that was an aberration.
Bills lost only DL who played well against Ravens. Oliver in walking boot. Even with him Bills gave up 40. Jets O was not their problem against Steelers. Always hard to bet against Josh Allen, but Jets +6.5/over 47 is the play. Feels like Bills 27, Jets 24.
Quote: unJonHere’s another DRich filter over: Iowa -35 over UMass with the total at 44
link to original post
I passed on that one just because I don't trust Iowa to score points. Their QB Granowski has not looked good the past two games.
Quote: DRichQuote: unJonHere’s another DRich filter over: Iowa -35 over UMass with the total at 44
link to original post
I passed on that one just because I don't trust Iowa to score points. Their QB Granowski has not looked good the past two games.
link to original post
Yeah I learned my lesson on that last week
Quote: unJonHere’s another DRich filter over: Iowa -35 over UMass with the total at 44
link to original post
Thank you. Put food on SOOPOO’s table. But not much. The extremely correlated parlay of Iowa pointspread/over only paid +150.
My ‘Ghost Parlay today is Bills/Cardinals/Vikings/Rams.
Need Liverpool win to finish pretty nice parlay.
Also got +EV (pretty sure?) on Man C/Man U draw at +420. They’ve both been mediocre so far this season.
Bills /Ravens was an NFL scorigami at 41-40.
Texas A& M 41. Notre Dame 40!
.
Quote: lilredroosterdeleted - my math was wrong - my bad -
.
link to original post
Your math was right. Two -110 bets parlay to 21/11 * 21/11 = 3.6446, ie, +264. $57 to win $150.74.
But I'm not sure it's relevant since in this case there is clear correlation between the favorite and the over.
I remember after online sportsbooks became prevalent in the US but before they introduced SGPs, you could parlay baseball run lines and totals at full odds on betMGM. Good times.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: unJonHere’s another DRich filter over: Iowa -35 over UMass with the total at 44
link to original post
Thank you. Put food on SOOPOO’s table. But not much. The extremely correlated parlay of Iowa pointspread/over only paid +150.
My ‘Ghost Parlay today is Bills/Cardinals/Vikings/Rams.
Need Liverpool win to finish pretty nice parlay.
Also got +EV (pretty sure?) on Man C/Man U draw at +420. They’ve both been mediocre so far this season.
Bills /Ravens was an NFL scorigami at 41-40.
Texas A& M 41. Notre Dame 40!
link to original post
Liverpool ridiculous luck to win! Penalty kick deep in stoppage time.
Man C wipes floor with Man U. Oh well.
Bills/Cards/Rams win. Vikes lose. So I win my 3 leg parlay. I like the way I’m picking these.
I’m in two (free entry for me) survivor pools. Both 2-0. I’m going with Bills in both next week. Dolphins don’t travel well to Orchard Park.
