2022 WoV Picks Game Discussion Thread

Quote: EdCollins

Quote: Mission146

...
I have also decided that, if the Perfection Bonus is not hit in the last two weeks, that I will roll 100% of the amount not awarded into a WoV Playoff Picks Game...

THANKS!

Can we assume that this rollover amount can only be won by the a player that is entered in this contest?

To clarify, if we get a member who wishes to enter the Playoff Picks contest that is not entered in this contest, that player would not be eligible for the rollover amount, since they did not contribute to it at all.
link to original post

I'm just going to turn it into a $200 Prize Pool for the Playoff Picks Game, in total, which includes the Perfection Bonus amounts that were not rewarded. Effectively, I believe I would be adding $70 to the Perfection Bonuses not won to make it a $200 total prize pool.

I'm going to answer your question with a, "Yes." Given that we didn't have twenty players, I wasn't planning to do a Playoff Picks game anyway. Since the only reason I am doing one is the Perfection Bonus going so long without hitting, if indeed that happens, only players who played this game will be eligible to play the Playoff Picks Game.

Given that so much of it is in the form of not won Perfection Bonus, if it is not won in these last two weeks, I will also enter the Playoff Picks game to defend my money. By the letter of the rules, I could just keep it all, but I always knew I would do something should a Perfection Bonus ever go this long without hitting.

Next week will decide if there will be a Playoff Game or the Perfection Bonus will be won.

Nobody survived the early games with a perfect week...with the Falcons not covering (in a winning effort) being the game that knocked the most people out. Over half of the field had the Falcons covering that one.

Quote: Mission146

Next week will decide if there will be a Playoff Game or the Perfection Bonus will be won.

Nobody survived the early games with a perfect week...with the Falcons not covering (in a winning effort) being the game that knocked the most people out. Over half of the field had the Falcons covering that one.
link to original post

"Curse the Falcons' going from -3 to -6, in the betting market" (when I last looked at them).

Also, it seems like I am going for an "inverse perfection" run, this week.

------
Playoff Comp (maybe ?):
If someone wins the perfection bonus before the playoffs, would you still consider*** running a separate playoff comp?

***; I don't mind spending up to another $25, and more people joining if they want to, as well (if it is "easy enough to organize in such a short amount of time"?).

There will be a new leader. I had a terrible week and went 1-5. I obviously had no feel for what was going on - or just a bunch of bad variance. Prolly both.

Quote: gordonm888

There will be a new leader. I had a terrible week and went 1-5. I obviously had no feel for what was going on - or just a bunch of bad variance. Prolly both.
link to original post

If the Ravens do not cover tonight, you'll still be in 1st Place no matter what happens Monday night.

If the Ravens do cover tonight, for the first time this year, Vegasbrent will be in 1st Place.

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: Mission146

Next week will decide if there will be a Playoff Game or the Perfection Bonus will be won.

Nobody survived the early games with a perfect week...with the Falcons not covering (in a winning effort) being the game that knocked the most people out. Over half of the field had the Falcons covering that one.
link to original post

"Curse the Falcons' going from -3 to -6, in the betting market" (when I last looked at them).

Also, it seems like I am going for an "inverse perfection" run, this week.

------
Playoff Comp (maybe ?):
If someone wins the perfection bonus before the playoffs, would you still consider*** running a separate playoff comp?

***; I don't mind spending up to another $25, and more people joining if they want to, as well (if it is "easy enough to organize in such a short amount of time"?).
link to original post

I'd consider it, though I will say that the Playoff Picks Game (if any) has never had an Entry Fee before, so there's no way I'm going to start that now. I've always looked at it as a bonus game, of sorts.

It's possible that I will run a Playoff Picks Game with total prizes of x < $200 if the Perfection Bonus is hit and people would be interested in playing. We'll say that it'll be a total prize pool of $200 if the Perfection Bonus is not hit and then either $100 or $150 if the Perfection Bonus is hit in this final week.

However, if the Perfection Bonus does get hit in the last week, then the Playoff Game will be open to anyone and we will need at least fifteen total commitments to go. If the Perfection Bonus does not get hit in Week 18, then the Playoff Game will be closed to participants in this game (and me defending) and there will not need to be a minimum number of participants for it to go.

I think I am 5-1 this week.

JohnnyQ:
Browns +2 CONFIDENCE
Lions -6
Patriots -2.5
Broncos +12.5
Seahawks +1.5

Yesterday afternoon I checked the scores on-line, saw the PATS up by 9 with a minute and change left and they had the ball, and felt pretty good about it. 5 minutes later I check again and the Dolphins had scored a TD so the PATS miss the spread. Aaaarrrrgggghhhh.

Well... based upon tonight's heartbreaking events, I guess I don't have anything to score yet. For what it's worth, here's how everyone did:

JohnnyQ 5-1

SOOPOO 4-1
JW17 4-1
JimRockford 4-1

Vegasbrent 4-2

jml24 3-2

Wizard 3-3
Johnzimbo 3-3
EdCollins 3-3

IndyJeffrey 2-3

PlayYourCardsRight 2-4
GenWyzgy 2-4
FourFiveFace 2-4

AZDuffman 1-4

miplet 1-5
Gordonm888 1-5
Gaming711 1-5

ksdjdj 0-6
Joeman 0-6

Regular Picks: 29-43
Confidence Picks: 8-10


Five players picked a side on tonight's game:

SOOPOO, JW17, and jml24 all picked the Bills -1
IndyJeffrey and JimRockford both picked the Bengals +1

Well, the MNF game has been postponed due to the collapse of the Bills' Damar Hamlin who is now in critical condition at Cincinnati Hospital.

It looks for all the world like a cardiac arrest. The medical team administered CPR for approximately 10 minutes, and there are internet reports that the medical responders used a defibrillator and an epi- shot. That would be the perfect response for a cardiac arrest. Speculating: he suffered a heart contusion during the tackle that stopped his heart.

What do sports books do when a game is postponed like this? Do they declare the bets null and void and return the money? I think there is a significant chance that the Bills-Bengals game might be cancelled - when could they possibly play the rest of the game?

I imagine that Commissioner Mission146 will eventually need to make a contest ruling.

Prayers for Damar Hamlin.

Yes, prayers and positive thoughts going out to Damar Hamlin.

50+ years ago:

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/nfl/lions/2021/10/23/detroit-lions-chuck-hughes-death-nfl-game-wife-sharon-hughes/6107091001/

Quote: gordonm888

Well, the MNF game has been postponed due to the collapse of the Bills' Damar Hamlin who is now in critical condition at Cincinnati Hospital.

It looks for all the world like a cardiac arrest. The medical team administered CPR for approximately 10 minutes, and there are internet reports that the medical responders used a defibrillator and an epi- shot. That would be the perfect response for a cardiac arrest. Speculating: he suffered a heart contusion during the tackle that stopped his heart.

What do sports books do when a game is postponed like this? Do they declare the bets null and void and return the money? I think there is a significant chance that the Bills-Bengals game might be cancelled - when could they possibly play the rest of the game?

I imagine that Commissioner Mission146 will eventually need to make a contest ruling.

Prayers for Damar Hamlin.
link to original post

I imagine that the game will only be played if it becomes relevant.

From what I can tell, if the Chiefs and Bills BOTH win this weekend, then the game would have to be played because it would create a scenario in which the Bills could get the first round bye as two wins would result in the Chiefs and Bills being 14-3, but the Bills would have the H2H tiebreaker over the Chiefs.

If the Chiefs win and the Bills lose, then nothing about the game being cancelled would really matter that much: The Bengals could not catch the Chiefs in terms of overall record, so the Chiefs would get the first round bye. In theory, the seeding between the Bills and the Bengals could change depending on the winner of that game, but since both teams would be in the Wildcard as Division winners anyway, I don't know that the NFL would consider that important enough to disrupt the schedule.

If the Chiefs lose and the Bills win, then the Bills would be in a position to get the first round bye if they beat the Bengals as they would have the H2H over KC. However, the Bengals also beat the Chiefs, so if the Chiefs lose and the other two teams win, then the game would be relevant for which team of the Bengals and Bills get the bye week in the Playoffs and, I would think, would have to be played.

If Cincinnati loses and the Bills lose, I wouldn't think the game being cancelled would really matter as it would only change the seeding between the Bengals and Bills, but nothing would change that both teams have to play in the Wildcard Round.

Anyway, we are going to have to see what happens with the schedule. Obviously, if the game does not get played, then it is just going to be a, "No Pick," for anyone who selected the game this week. If the game does get played eventually, then those who picked the game originally will probably be locked into picking that game separately...and if they bet spread or totals are locked into keeping the same bet type...but will probably be permitted to pick against the new line when it comes out.

Absent any objections, that's my ruling. Any objections or alternate proposals will be heard and considered. I am opposed to making players keep the lines that they have already played because I consider it a different game now.***

I hope that Damar Hamlin comes out of this alright. Evidently, Hamlin suffered a cardiac arrest on the field, but they were able to restart his heartbeat. Quite frankly, when they postponed the game (not temporarily as the first time it was suspended) I thought he had to be dead, so this is better news than I originally thought.

In the meantime, I'm not a religious person, but I think this is a good time for us all to hope for the best for Hamlin...and maybe take a moment to reflect on our own lives and how they can end at any second. You have this young man in, I assume, amazing physical condition going into a sudden cardiac arrest...so I think we would all do well to keep in mind that the end can come for any one of us in the blink of an eye.

***Also, this game might not end up being relevant to any of the prizes, so we will perhaps visit that after Week 18 and see if the result of this one pick can even conceivably change anything.

For the time being, would it be possible to grade everyone as if the week is over, EdCollins? With only five players on that game, going back to manually adjust the standings once that game has been played---should it be played---will be a trivial affair for me.

If the game does not get played, then it will simply be as if it wasn't picked.

On the other hand, we could just make this easy and say that those who picked the Bills/Bengals game have to make SIX Picks this upcoming week.

Also, if we do it this way and you have NOT used your Skip Week and choose to do so, you would have to make one Pick anyway.

What do you guys think is more equitable? Should we wait and see if that game gets rescheduled and the players who picked it must pick it anew if that happens, or should we have those players simply make six Picks in Week 18?

I understand that could also have implications for the Perfection Bonus and create a disadvantage. The way I would nullify that is to instruct the players who Pick six games to choose one game that is irrelevant to the Perfection Bonus. In other words, they could go 6-1 and still get the Perfection Bonus if the only game lost is the one they said they don't want to have count.

Uh, whatever is easiest for you and Ed ?

Quote: Mission146

For the time being, would it be possible to grade everyone as if the week is over, EdCollins?

7:00 am here. About to leave for a few hours, and have breakfast with an old friend. As soon as I get back I'll grade and post the results as if the Monday Night Game has not yet been played.

I don't like the 6 picks idea.

I say wait and see if the game is played. If it's played, those 5 players can pick with the new spread and total. If it's not played, just don't count it.

It would be different if one player had a shot at the perfection bonus, of course.

Just my 2-cents in a tragic situation.

Quote: Vegasbrent

I don't like the 6 picks idea.

I say wait and see if the game is played. If it's played, those 5 players can pick with the new spread and total. If it's not played, just don't count it.

It would be different if one player had a shot at the perfection bonus, of course.

Just my 2-cents in a tragic situation.
link to original post

It looks like all of them originally made a spread pick, so they would not have the option of picking total; they must make ATS picks.

Anyway, your proposal sounds fine.

Ironically, this is precisely why I didn't do the game in the 2020 NFL Season.

The easiest and most equitable way for Bengals/Bills to be finished, I think, is if the NFL delays the entire Playoffs for one week and just doesn't have a week break prior to the Super Bowl. I believe Super Bowl tickets have been sold already, but I don't think tickets for other games would have been since the schedule is unknown.

That might result in the Pro Bowl being cancelled, but the NFL long ago made it evident that they don't care about the Pro Bowl anyway.

Quote: Mission146

The easiest and most equitable way for Bengals/Bills to be finished, I think, is if the NFL delays the entire Playoffs for one week and just doesn't have a week break prior to the Super Bowl. I believe Super Bowl tickets have been sold already, but I don't think tickets for other games would have been since the schedule is unknown.

That might result in the Pro Bowl being cancelled, but the NFL long ago made it evident that they don't care about the Pro Bowl anyway.
link to original post

No way the playoffs will be delayed by one week. Too much goes into planning the games, the telecasts, etc.

If the Bills and Bengals finish 1,2 in their conference, they will both have first week byes in the playoff. Would it make sense to finish the Bills-Bengals game during the first week of the playoff if the home field advantage issues need to be resolved?

Regarding the contest, my suggestion would be to:
- handle the unfinished game the same way that the sports books treat it (whatever that is), OR
- treat it like a game that was cancelled due to weather issues; i.e., declare a No Contest. There have been so many pushes on the ATS bets that we all have different amounts of games in our won-lost pick records. Heck, given that I went 1-5 this week, I would have loved for one of my games to be declared No Contest.

But we'll all go along with whatever Mission decides to do.

I believe only the 1-seed gets a bye in the first round.

Quote: gordonm888

No way the playoffs will be delayed by one week. Too much goes into planning the games, the telecasts, etc.

I agree with Gordon. I would be shocked if moved the playoff schedule. Just too much money on the line for the networks.

Upon reflection, I also think it's best if we don't do anything special next week, i.e. have the five players who picked a side on the Monday Night game make SIX picks next week. Initially I kind of liked that idea... but now I don't think it's necessary at all.

Here are the Week 17 results, and the current standings, assuming we consider the Bills/Bengals game to be a push/no contest.

Week 17 Results

Wizard (3-3)
PANTHERS +3 (loss)
SAINTS +6.5 (win)
CARDINALS +3 CONFIDENCE (win)
TEXANS +4 (loss)
BEARS +6 (loss)

SOOPOO (4-1)
GIANTS -6 (win)
BILLS -1 (push/no contest)
DOLPHINS +2.5 (win)
FALCONS -3 (loss)
RAIDERS +9.5 CONFIDENCE (win)

FourFiveFace (2-4)
SAINTS +6.5 (win)
TEXANS +4 (loss)
BRONCOS +12.5 (win)
JETS -1.5 (loss)
RAMS +6.5 CONFIDENCE (loss)

Gaming711 (1-5)
JACK -4 (win)
COLTS +6 (loss)
49ERS -9.5 CONFIDENCE (loss)
VIKINGS +3.5 (loss)
CHARGERS OVER 43 (loss)

IndyJeffrey (2-3)
COMMANDERS -2 (loss)
FALCONS -3 CONFIDENCE (loss)
LIONS -6 (win)
GIANTS -6 (win)
BENGALS +1 (push/no contest)

AZDuffman (1-4)
BEARS OVER 52 (loss)
BRONCOS UNDER 45 (loss)
STEELERS UNDER 35 (win)
CARDINALS OVER 42 (loss)
PANTHERS UNDER 40.5 (loss)

miplet (1-5)
FALCONS -3 CONFIDENCE (loss)
TEXANS +4 (loss)
VIKINGS +3.5 (loss)
BEARS +6 (loss)
SAINTS +6.5 (win)

JW17 (4-1)
BRONCOS +12.5 CONFIDENCE (win)
BILLS -1 (push/no contest)
BUCCANEERS -3 (win)
FALCONS -3 (loss)
BROWNS +2 (win)

JimRockford (4-1)
COMMANDERS -2 (loss)
JAGUARS-4 CONFIDENCE (win)
RAIDERS +9.5 (win)
PACKERS -2.5 (win)
BENGALS +1 (push/no contest)

GenWyzgy (2-4)
EAGLES -6.5 (loss)
GIANTS -6 (win)
49ERS -9.5 (loss)
PACKERS OVER 48 (win)
RAMS OVER 43 CONFIDENCE (loss)

EdCollins (3-3)
CHIEFS -12.5 CONFIDENCE (loss)
49ERS -9.5 (loss)
CHARGERS -6.5 (win)
GIANTS -6 (win)
LIONS -6 (win)

Johnzimbo (3-3)
CARDINALS +3 CONFIDENCE (win)
RAIDERS +9.5 (win)
BEARS +6 (loss)
TEXANS OVER 43.5 (loss)
EAGLES OVER 42.5 (loss)

Gordonm888 (1-5)
BEARS +6 (loss)
BRONCOS +12.5 (win)
JETS -1.5 CONFIDENCE (loss)
49ERS -9.5 (loss)
RAMS +6.5 (loss)

JohnnyQ (5-1)
BROWNS +2 CONFIDENCE (win)
LIONS -6 (win)
PATRIOTS -2.5 (loss)
BRONCOS +12.5 (win)
SEAHAWKS +1.5 (win)

ksdjdj (0-6)
FALCONS -3 CONFIDENCE (loss)
TEXANS +4 (loss)
COLTS +6 (loss)
49ERS -9.5 (loss)
VIKINGS +3.5 (loss)

PlayYourCardsRight (2-4)
LIONS -6 (win)
PATRIOTS -2.5 (loss)
GIANTS -6 (win)
49ERS -9.5 (loss)
VIKINGS +3.5 CONFIDENCE (loss)

jml24 (3-2)
SAINTS +6.5 (win)
TEXANS +4 (loss)
SEAHAWKS +1.5 CONFIDENCE (win)
VIKINGS +3.5 (loss)
BILLS -1 (push/no contest)

Joeman (0-6)
EAGLES -6.5 (loss)
FALCONS -3 (loss)
49ERS -9.5 CONFIDENCE (loss)
PACKERS UNDER 48 (loss)
PANTHERS +3 (loss)

Vegasbrent (4-2)
BUCCANEERS -3 (win)
SAINTS +6.5 (win)
FALCONS -3 (loss)
CHARGERS -6.5 CONFIDENCE (win)
RAVENS -2.5 (loss)



Week 17 Standings

Name	Wins	Losses	%
Gordonm888	52	41	55.91%
Vegasbrent	54	44	55.10%
FourFiveFace	51	43	54.26%
IndyJeffrey	54	46	54.00%
JimRockford	45	41	52.33%
Wizard	49	50	49.49%
KSDJDJ	46	47	49.46%
jml24	45	47	48.91%
PlayYourCardsRight	43	47	47.78%
JohnnyQ	45	50	47.37%
JW17	44	49	47.31%
miplet	47	53	47.00%
GenWyzgy	47	54	46.53%
AZDuffman	46	53	46.46%
Gaming711	44	53	45.36%
Joeman	43	55	43.88%
SOOPOO	43	56	43.43%
EdCollins	39	59	39.80%
Johnzimbo	37	63	37.00%
Totals	874	951	47.89%

Skip Week Summary

JohnnyQ: Week 1
PlayYourCardsRight: Week 1
JimRockford: Week 2
JW17: Week 9
KSDJDJ: Week 11
FourFiveFace: Week 12
Gordonm888: Week 13


Perfection Bonus Summary

Week 01: $10 - miplet
Week 02: $10 - Gordonm88
Week 03: $10 - FourFiveFace
Week 04: (No One. Carry Over To Week 5)
Week 05: $20 - IndyJeffrey
Week 06: (No One. Prize Carried Over)
Week 07: (No One. Prize Carried Over)
Week 08: (No One. Prize Carried Over)
Week 09: (No One. Prize Carried Over)
Week 10: (No One. Prize Carried Over)
Week 11: (No One. Prize Carried Over)
Week 12: (No One. Prize Carried Over)
Week 13: (No One. Prize Carried Over)
Week 14: (No One. Prize Carried Over)
Week 15: (No One. Prize Carried Over)
Week 16: (No One. Prize Carried Over)
Week 17: (No One. Prize Carried Over)
Week 18: $130 - ?

For contest purposes, I propose we consider the Bills/Bengals game a no contest/push EVEN IF THIS GAME IS REPLAYED in the future. That certainly seems easiest and it has its advantages... but I'm okay with any decision that is made.

As we head into the final week, I want to thank everyone for playing and again helping to make this year's NFL season a bit more fun for me than it otherwise would have been. A special thanks to Mission, of course, for hosting. Good luck with all of your picks next week and let's all keep Damar Hamlin in our thoughts.

Quote: EdCollins

For contest purposes, I propose we consider the Bills/Bengals game a no contest/push EVEN IF THIS GAME IS REPLAYED in the future. That certainly seems easiest and it has its advantages... but I'm okay with any decision that is made.

Selfishly, if the game is finished, or replayed, I would like it to count for those of us who picked the game. Though, at this point, I cannot see a scenario where the game would be resumed.

I am pretty sure there is a You Suck prize but can't find it. Thought I saw $75 somewhere?

Quote: EdCollins

As we head into the final week, I want to thank everyone for playing and again helping to make this year's NFL season a bit more fun for me than it otherwise would have been. A special thanks to Mission, of course, for hosting.

EdC: YES, and thanks ALSO to you for all the excellent results summaries and tables !

Consolation Prizes:

The first consolation prize will be the, "You suck," consolation prize. This prize goes to the player with the worst record, if there is a tie, then the winner shall be adjudicated by the normal tiebreaker rules.

The second consolation prize will be the, "Most Average," consolation prize which goes to the player that finishes the season closest to .500. Tiebreakers will also be adjudicated using the normal tie breaking Rule or the players may opt to split it.

Each of these consolation prizes pays $75.

From the NFL: Bills/Bengals game will not be resumed this week. No changes to Week 18 have been made.

Quote: EdCollins

Week 17 Standings

Name	Wins	Losses	%
Gordonm888	52	41	55.91%
Vegasbrent	54	44	55.10%
FourFiveFace	51	43	54.26%
IndyJeffrey	54	46	54.00%
JimRockford	45	41	52.33%
Wizard	49	50	49.49%
KSDJDJ	46	47	49.46%
jml24	45	47	48.91%
PlayYourCardsRight	43	47	47.78%
JohnnyQ	45	50	47.37%
JW17	44	49	47.31%
miplet	47	53	47.00%
GenWyzgy	47	54	46.53%
AZDuffman	46	53	46.46%
Gaming711	44	53	45.36%
Joeman	43	55	43.88%
SOOPOO	43	56	43.43%
EdCollins	39	59	39.80%
Johnzimbo	37	63	37.00%
Totals	874	951	47.89%

Yikes, nearly 3x as many players below 0.500 than above.

The plan: go 6-0 for the perfection bonus and get the average bonus.

Oh my gosh, that would be amazing if you did that. One to gloat about for years.

Quote: miplet

The plan: go 6-0 for the perfection bonus and get the average bonus.
link to original post

Well, don't do what I did. That was my plan last week... didn't turn out so well!

Quote: EdCollins

For contest purposes, I propose we consider the Bills/Bengals game a no contest/push EVEN IF THIS GAME IS REPLAYED in the future. That certainly seems easiest and it has its advantages... but I'm okay with any decision that is made.

As we head into the final week, I want to thank everyone for playing and again helping to make this year's NFL season a bit more fun for me than it otherwise would have been. A special thanks to Mission, of course, for hosting. Good luck with all of your picks next week and let's all keep Damar Hamlin in our thoughts.
link to original post

I think I'm going to agree with this suggestion. Nobody is disenfranchised from a potential Perfection Bonus, which I think someone else mentioned, and pushes are part of the game anyway. It also appears that the game will not be played this week, so that means the only time they conceivably could play it would be to delay the Playoffs.

I want to thank everyone for playing and EdCollins for grading Picks as well as Miplet for his program when VegasInsider doesn't change their formatting and screw us up!

Now, all of you guys save me a few bucks by not hitting the Perfection Bonus this week and we'll make the Playoff Picks pool $200; you also won't have to compete with me...not that I've ever been a threat.

Greetings!

Once again, thank you to everyone for playing the 2022 WoV NFL Picks Game!

I would also like to thank EdCollins for grading all of the Picks every week as well as Miplet for his program that makes the Lines faster to post when VegasInsider is not changing their formatting every ten minutes. It looks like they may have changed their formatting, yet again, probably just in case Miplet updated his program last week. We will most likely use a different source for lines next year; that's not because I expect Miplet to update the program, (though I will always be grateful if he does) but because this constant format changing is also a PITA when it comes to manually typing the lines, as well.

Naturally, anyone could win the Perfection Bonus provided they satisfy the requirement of making a Confidence Pick. Beyond that, it would appear from the standings that only a few people cannot win any other prize, which is ideal, and the reason that I decided to create the Consolation prizes the second or third year of this contest.

I'd like to wish everyone good luck this final week of the regular contest, but not too much luck, because I'm pulling for the Perfection Bonus to be missed this final week. Besides, the Playoff Picks Game will have a larger overall prize pool if the Perfection Bonus is missed, so all of you guys should refrain from being stingy and be sure not to go 6-0 this week. (JK)

With that, the Week 18 Lines are as follows:

Chiefs -9.5 @ Raiders +9.5 O/U 52.5
Titans +6 @ Jaguars -6 O/U 40
Jets -1 @ Dolphins +1 O/U 38.5
Browns +2.5 @ Steelers -2.5 O/U 40.5
Texans +2.5 @ Colts -2.5 O/U 38
Buccaneers +4 @ Falcons -4 O/U 40.5
Panthers +3.5 @ Saints -3.5 O/U 41.5
Patriots +7 @ Bills -7 O/U 42.5
Ravens +7 @ Bengals -7 O/U 42
Vikings -7.5 @ Bears +7.5 O/U 43
Rams +6.5 @ Seahawks -6.5 O/U 41.5
Giants +14 @ Eagles -14 O/U 43
Cardinals +14 @ 49ers -14 O/U 40.5
Chargers +2.5 @ Broncos -2.5 O/U 39.5
Cowboys -7 @ Commanders +7 O/U 41
Lions +4.5 @ Packers -4.5 O/U 49

EDIT TO ADD: Please keep in mind that the rules for picking Saturday games are such that you must submit Picks at least one hour before the earliest scheduled game you are picking kicks off. Furthermore, if you make Picks that include Saturday games at all, then you are not able to change your Picks for any reason.

Quote: Mission146

all of you guys should refrain from being stingy and be sure not to go 6-0 this week.

I have politely shown that restraint for 17 weeks in a row now. You are welcome.

Greetings!

Playoff Picks Game

There will be a separate thread for the Playoff Picks Game and the prize pool will depend on whether or not the Perfection Bonus is hit in this game this week.

Anyway, I think I have a really fun idea, but I have to put more thought into the specific rules. The Playoff Picks thread will almost certainly go up tomorrow and all who participated in this game will be welcome to play.

---If the Perfection Bonus IS NOT hit this week, then only those who participated in this Picks game may participate in the Playoff Picks Game and I will not be defending.

---If the Perfection Bonus IS HIT this week, then anyone may participate in the Playoff Picks Game and I will be entering to defend the money.

Basic Structure of the Playoff Picks Game

I'm trying something new this season. Grading will be a pain, but I think we will have a lot of fun.

How it will work is that, for the first two weeks of the Playoffs, (Wildcard + Divisional) I will be listing spreads, totals and Moneylines for all games. Every participant will begin with a, "Bankroll," of $500 (not real money, obviously) and will be restricted to minimum and maximum numbers of bets that can be placed. There will also be minimum and maximum bet amounts for each individual bet, each week.

For the Conference Championships and Super Bowl, some Player (and other) Props will be included in addition to the Lines mentioned above. For those two weeks, there will likely be NO MINIMUM number of picks that must be made, or only one minimum pick, and the maximum bet permitted will be greater than in previous weeks. There will also be minimum bet amounts in place, but any such would likely be the same as the earlier weeks.

The idea for this game is to, hopefully, keep everyone in it as long as possible. I'm not going to post any ridiculous +2500 type odds for the Super Bowl, or anything like that, where winning even a single bet results in winning the game...but there will be long enough odds to give most participants a theoretical chance as long as they didn't do horribly before that.

Basically, you're not playing against only the lines, but depending on your position each week, you'll also have to play according to what you think other players near your position might do.

And, on to the final performance of the main show!

The Week 18 Picks Are As Follows:

JohnZimbo:
Skips Week 18

miplet:
Jets -1
Bills -7
Bengals -7
Bears +7.5-confidence
Broncos -2.5

Wizard:
Raiders +9.5
Titans +6
Buccaneers +4-CONFIDENCE
Panthers +3.5
Patriots +7

Gaming711:
Texans 2.5
Bill OVER 42.5
Rams 6.5 confidence
Steelers -2.5
Lions 4.5

PlayYourCardsRight:
Steelers -2.5
Texans +2.5
Bills -7
Bengals -7 CONFIDENCE
Cowboys -7

AZDuffman:
Lions OVER 49
Chargers UNDER 39.5
Buccaneers UNDER 40.5
Browns UNDER 40.5
Bears OVER 43

jml24:
Dolphins +1
Colts -2.5
Bears +7.5 Confidence
Rams +6.5
Commanders +7

FourFiveFace:
Bills -7
Bengals -7-Confidence
Rams +6.5
Broncos -2.5
Lions +4.5

IndyJeffrey
Browns +2.5
Texans +2.5
Bengals -7 - CONFIDENCE
Rams +6.5
Lions +4.5

EdCollins
Steelers Under 40.5
Lions +4.5
Titans +6
Raiders +9.5
Rams +6.5

JW17:
Broncos -2.5 Confidence
Lions +4.5
Bills -7
Seahawks -6.5
Buccaneers +4

JohnnyQ:
Raiders +9.5
Browns +2.5
Giants +14 CONFIDENCE
Cardinals +14
Broncos -2.5

JimRockford
Titans 6
Dolphins 1 CONFIDENCE
Patriots 7
Ravens 7
Cardinals 14

Gordonm888
Titans +6
Bills -7
Vikings -7.5
49ers -14
Lions +4.5 Confidence

Joeman:
Patriots +7
Chiefs -9.5
Packers -4.5 -Confidence
Jaguars -6
Steelers -2.5

ksdjdj:
Raiders +9.5
Jaguars -6-Confidence
Panthers Under 41.5
Bengals -7
Bears +7.5

Vegasbrent:
Chiefs -9.5
Bears +7.5
Bengals -7
Eagles -14
Seahawks -6.5-confidence

SOOPOO:
Lions +4.5 confidence
Rams +6.5
Raiders +9.5
Texans +2.5
Saints-3.5

OTHER NOTES

Congratulations to JohnZimbo! In a season just full of awful Picks, JohnZimbo's Picks sucked so badly that he is easily going to be the worst player of this game without even picking this week! What really impresses me is that he lacks the Confidence in just how bad his Picks are, and instead, took the safe route of simply not picking this week to secure his position as the absolute worst player of this game in 2022.

Personally, I have tremendous confidence in how badly JohnZimbo is capable of sucking at picking NFL Games, so I think he would have ran down the score by, at best, going 1-5 this week and simply making his winning percentage even worse.

Also, in so doing, he ensured that EdCollins cannot win any of the prizes in the regular Picks game---so not only does JohnZimbo suck at picking NFL Games, but he also did something extremely rude! Let us also include the fact that he took the safe route against the ONE PERSON who could have theoretically sucked worse than he does at Picking. That's right; JohnZimbo could have went 6-0 and only EdCollins would have been a threat.

JohnZimbo, you suck------CONGRATULATIONS ON WINNING THE PRIZE!!!

Week 18 consensus:



Lots of love for the Bengals and Lions.

Perfection Bonus This Week

Greetings!

The purpose of this post is to track the Perfection Bonus for this Week and has no other real purpose. We have nineteen players in this game, so I am going to be simply numbering the people who are eliminated with one of the reasons, if there are multiple, why:

1.) JohnZimbo---Skipped Week
2.) EdCollins---Did Not Make a Confidence Pick
3.) AzDuffman---Did Not Make a Confidence Pick
4.) Wizard---Raiders Did Not Cover
5.) JohnnyQ---Raiders Did Not Cover
6.) Joeman---Jaguars Did Not Cover
7.) KSDJDJ---Raiders Did Not Cover
8.) SOOPOO---Raiders Did Not Cover
9.) GenWyzgy---Skipped Week

ALIVE:

Gordonm888, VegasBrent, FourFiveFace, IndyJeffrey, JimRockford, JML24, JW17, PlayYourCardsRight, Miplet, Gaming711

Almost half of the field eliminated before Sunday kickoffs? Nice!!! Let's put this baby to bed in the early games! LOL

I was really wanting to try for the perfection bonus this week but couldn't risk EdCollins sliding past me into the basement :)

Greetings!

I would like everyone to know that the RULES for the Playoff Picks Game are up and can be found here:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/37855-wov-2023-nfl-playoff-picks-game/#post877830

If you have any questions about those Rules, then please post them in that thread. All who played in this game will automatically receive reminders to make bets in that game when the lines go up.

UPDATED:

Quote: Mission146

Perfection Bonus This Week

Greetings!

The purpose of this post is to track the Perfection Bonus for this Week and has no other real purpose. We have nineteen players in this game, so I am going to be simply numbering the people who are eliminated with one of the reasons, if there are multiple, why:

1.) JohnZimbo---Skipped Week
2.) EdCollins---Did Not Make a Confidence Pick
3.) AzDuffman---Did Not Make a Confidence Pick
4.) Wizard---Raiders Did Not Cover
5.) JohnnyQ---Raiders Did Not Cover
6.) Joeman---Jaguars Did Not Cover
7.) KSDJDJ---Raiders Did Not Cover
8.) SOOPOO---Raiders Did Not Cover
9.) GenWyzgy---Skipped Week
10.) VegasBrent---Bears Did Not Cover
11.) IndyJeffrey---Browns Did Not Cover
12.) JimRockford---Patriots Did Not Cover
13.) JML24---Colts Did Not Cover
14.) JW17---Buccaneers Did Not Cover
15.) Miplet---Jets Did Not Cover

ALIVE:

Gordonm888, FourFiveFace, PlayYourCardsRight, Gaming711

Gordon Needs: 49ers -14, Lions +4.5
FourFiveFace Needs: Bengals -7, Rams +6.5, Broncos -2.5, Lions +4.5
PlayYourCardsRight Needs: Cowboys -7
Gaming711 Needs: Rams +6.5, Lions +4.5

link to original post

This might come down to whether or not the Lions cover and could theoretically be a three-way chop if they do! It could even be a four-way chop as it doesn't appear that anybody is opposed on picks.

Im 5-0 with Cowboys to go. Win for perfection. Lose and i finish 48-48, or most average!

Woo hoo!

Quote: PlayYourCardsRight

Im 5-0 with Cowboys to go. Win for perfection. Lose and i finish 48-48, or most average!

Woo hoo!
link to original post

You couldn't be in a better position! I'd hope for the win and suddenly become a huge Packers fan! In theory, there's a chance you wouldn't even need the Packers.

Quote: PlayYourCardsRight

Im 5-0 with Cowboys to go. Win for perfection. Lose and i finish 48-48, or most average!

Woo hoo!
link to original post

Cowboys win by exactly 7?

I just returned from a weekend in a cabin where we only had limited access and interest in the internet. I'm still catching up, but I'd just like to point out that there is also a close competition for first place in the main Picks Contest - involving three of the four competitors that are still in the running for the Perfection Bonus! Plus some others! This is exciting!

One of the final three in the Circa Survivor pool had the Colts. OOOOF. Cost him at least 2 million

Quote: PlayYourCardsRight

One of the final three in the Circa Survivor pool had the Colts. OOOOF. Cost him at least 2 million
link to original post

Wonder if and how much he hedged??

I have 2 sheets of paper with the scores and the possibilities on them. I can't really make heads or tails of them, but I know I have an outside shot at pulling out first place. Damn Bears knocked me out of the perfection bonus.

Definitely need my Packers to win tonight by 5 or more to have a chance to finish in the money.

Or I may be out of it after the late games.

I can't handle the pressure!!!

It is very exciting at least being in the mix and watching closely to see if that perfection bonus is won or not.