ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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April 19th, 2022 at 4:05:33 PM permalink
As the title states, these are just my NBA teasers.

Note 1: They are all 5-pt teasers, unless stated otherwise.
Note 2: All amounts are in units
Note 3: Teaser odds: 2-team @ +105, 3-team @ +200, 4-team @ +340
Note 4: Unless otherwise stated, assume it is their next game to play (for any games that are not completed)

----
Starting bank; 40,000

Bets that are partially complete:
1) 3-team teaser
800 on: Heat -1.5 / Suns -5.5 / Timberwolves +12.0 (Heat and Suns completed and won against the teased spread)

2a) 3-team teaser
Total of 640 (160 x 4 bets) on: 76ers -2.0 / Warriors -2.0 / Heat -2.5 / Timberwolves +12.0 (76ers and Warriors completed and won against the teased spread)

2b) 4-team teaser
240 on: same teams as "2a)" above,


Bets on games that have not started at the time of this post (both are 3-team teasers):
i) 800 on: Heat -2.0 / Timberwolves +12.0 / Suns -4.5

ii) 800 on: Heat -2.5 / Grizzlies -1.5 / Suns -4.5

---
Other info:

My first "betting limit test teasers" all won, but I am not going to count them as part of this thread's official results (if you are interested in what they were, see below)

A combo of 2 and 3-team teasers on: Heat -1.5 / Suns -5.5 / Bulls +15.5
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Apr 19, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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April 20th, 2022 at 12:28:44 AM permalink
Result Summary:

P(L) = Profit (Loss)

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 3280
P(L): (2800)
Closing balance: 37,200

----
New bet(s):

800 to win 1600 on the Bucks -5.0 / Timberwolves +7.0 / Jazz -1.0
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Apr 20, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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April 21st, 2022 at 4:02:22 AM permalink
Result Summary:

P(L) = Profit (Loss)

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 4,080
P(L): (3,600)
Closing balance: 36,400

The teaser in my previous post lost^^^ after the first leg.

^^^: I just had another look at the terms and conditions for teasers' and they state, if a teaser is reduced to one selection, then the teaser will be treated as a single and paid out at the fixed odds.

Note: I think most US style teasers' would still have a chance of a "push" if you tie on all other plays (eg Tie-Tie-Lose, would = "bet is void" / money back )
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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April 21st, 2022 at 7:58:26 PM permalink
720*** to win 1440 on the Nuggets +7.5 / Raptors +8.0 / Celtics +9.0

***: Even though the "teams that I picked" are based on real bets, they may not correspond to my "real bank roll / real bet amounts", as my regular NBA playoffs bets are not included in any balance figure in this thread (in other words I am trying to simulate what someone would/should bet "if they were only betting on these teasers).
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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April 24th, 2022 at 6:33:43 AM permalink
Result Summary:

P(L) = Profit (Loss)

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 4,800
P(L): (2,160)
Closing balance: 37,840

----
Won 1440 from the teaser mentioned in my previous post (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

----
New bet(s):

1,750*** to win 5,950*** on the: Nuggets +9.5 / Hawks +7.0 / Pelicans +7.5 /
Celtics +7.0 / 76ers -3.0 / Jazz +8.5 / Grizzlies -2.0

***: 35 bets x 50 units per bet (so these figures are the "max loss" and "max win" amounts)

Note : All bets above are "4-teams teasers", so the odds are +340 for all of them

----
Reminder of how I am doing these bets:

. I don't have an opinion about the teams I am betting on (or betting against).
. Using a site (mainly Pinnacle) to get a "rough idea of who to back" (eg current odds, shifts / line movements, etc)
. Not "crossing or touching a tie", see teaser section in the link here for more details (this is the reason why I am only teasing underdogs and / or favorites better than -5.5, for these 5-pt teasers).
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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April 24th, 2022 at 4:21:48 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

(snip): Nuggets +9.5 / Hawks +7.0 / Pelicans +7.5 /
Celtics +7.0 / 76ers -3.0 / Jazz +8.5 / Grizzlies -2.0
(snip)
. Using a site (mainly Pinnacle) to get a "rough idea of who to back" (eg current odds, shifts / line movements, etc)
(snip)
link to original post


The bets still have to win, but just by going by the "current Pinnacle odds", I think most of the lines shifted in my favor (see below):

Note 1: Pinnacle uses -105 / -105, as their average lines for the NBA.
Note 2: For any lines that were not close to -105 / -105 with pinnacle, I had to guess what the line would be to convert it to a "50/50 line" ( -105 / -105 line).
Note 3: These shifts are still subject to change, since most games haven't started yet.


Hawks went from +2 to about +1.4 (odds -107 @ +1.5, atm) - so I got about the equivalent of about a 5.6 pt teaser.

Pelicans went from +2.5 to about +2.25 ( odds -112 @ +2.5, atm) - so I got about the equivalent of about a 5.25 pt teaser.

Celtics went from +2.0 to about +1.0 (odds -106 @ +1.0, atm) - so I got about the equivalent of about a 6.0 pt teaser.

76ers went from -8 to about -7.25 (odds -110 @ -7.0, atm) - so I got about the equivalent of about a 4.25 pt teaser.

Jazz went from +3.5 to about +3 (odds -105 @ +3.0, atm) - so I got about the equivalent of about a 5.5 pt teaser.

Grizzlies went from -7 to about -6.5 (odds -106 @ -6.5, atm) - so I got about the equivalent of about a 4.5 pt teaser.

Average teaser shift (for games not yet completed) = ((5.6 +5.25 + 6.0 + 4.25 +5.5 +4.5)/6 ) - 5 = 5.1833... - 5 = +0.1833 average improvement (per game)

So in other words, my teasers' went from a 5-pt teaser, to the equivalent of a 5.1833... pt-teaser, since they improved by an average of
about 0.1833 per team, at this point in time.

---
Extra info:
I probably won't be posting this analysis for most or all of my future NBA teasers.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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April 27th, 2022 at 10:58:21 PM permalink
Result Summary:

P(L) = Profit (Loss)

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 6,550
P(L): (3,760)
Closing balance: 36,240

----
Lost 1,600*** from the last teaser mentioned (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

***: One leg was a push, so I got paid for a 3 Team teaser (for the only paying combination).

----
The teaser below will not be included in the above results, because some bets have already completed:

Bulls +17.5 (won) / Warriors -3.5 (won) / Raptors +6.5 / Pelicans +6.5 / Mavericks / +6.0 / Timberwolves +6.0

Note: Bet would have been listed as something like "15 x 120 unit bets on each 4 Teams Teaser, @ odds of +340 for each potential winning combination " (if I had mentioned the bets in time).
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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April 27th, 2022 at 10:58:25 PM permalink
Result Summary:

P(L) = Profit (Loss)

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 6,550
P(L): (3,760)
Closing balance: 36,240

----
Lost 1,600*** from the last teaser mentioned (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

***: One leg was a push, so I got paid for a 3 Team teaser (for the only paying combination).

----
The teaser below will not be included in the above results, because some bets have already completed:

Bulls +17.5 (won) / Warriors -3.5 (won) / Raptors +6.5 / Pelicans +6.5 / Mavericks +6.0 / Timberwolves +6.0

Note: Bet would have been listed as something like "15 x 120 unit bets on each 4 Teams Teaser, @ odds of +340 for each potential winning combination " (if I had mentioned the bets in time).
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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ksdjdj
April 28th, 2022 at 4:04:07 AM permalink
Interesting. Iím not sure the extra fifth of a point you are getting will make these bets +EV.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 4th, 2022 at 2:53:55 PM permalink
New bet(s):

1,000*** to win 2,000*** on the: Heat -3.0 / Suns -1.0 / Celtics +8.0 /
Warriors -1.5

***: 4 bets x 250 units per bet (so these figures are the "max loss" and "max win" amounts)

Note : All bets above are "3-team teasers", so the odds are +200 for all of them
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 7th, 2022 at 8:27:52 PM permalink
Result Summary:

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 7,550
P(L): (1,760)
Closing balance: 38,240

----
Won 2,000 from the last teaser mentioned (this is included in the above "Result Summary")
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 10th, 2022 at 4:50:42 PM permalink
New bet(s):

1,500 to win 1,575 on the: Suns -1.0 / Bucks +10.5
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 17th, 2022 at 4:33:33 PM permalink
Result Summary:

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 9,050
P(L): (185)
Closing balance: 39,815

Note: I won 1,575 from the last teaser mentioned (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

----
New Bet(s):

1,500 to win 1,575 on the: Celtics +7.0*** / Mavs +10.5

***: I had this a couple to a few days ago when the "50/50 line with most books" was about +2.0 for the Celtics ( I managed to get $1100 @ -1.5 for the Heat^^^).

^^^: Because this is a "teaser thread", I won't be counting this bet as part of the "Results Summary".
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 17th, 2022 at 10:13:05 PM permalink
Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 10,550
P(L): (1,685)
Closing balance: 38,315

Note: I lost 1,500 from the last teaser mentioned (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

----
New Bet(s):

1,500 to win 1,575 on the: Mavs (G1) +10.0 / Celtics (G2) +9.5

Note: I thought it would be easier to follow if I write G = Game (for example G2 = Game 2).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 18, 2022
unJon
unJon
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May 18th, 2022 at 6:06:23 AM permalink
Tough Mavs line to tease there. Coming off a long series against a well rested Warriors.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 18th, 2022 at 3:13:07 PM permalink
I think the Warriors are better value as well, my regular bets for these games are below (they won't be counted in the results, because this is a teaser thread).

ML = Money Line

Warriors 1375 to win 1250 @ -5.0
Celtics 4400 to win 4000 @ +4.5
Celtics 1000 to win 1700 ML

Note 1: I had the Warriors because I like them, and I had the Celtics because I thought there was a good chance the line would "move in my favor"

Note 2: I plan to bring my liability back to 1000-1500 for the above Celtics bets ( I can get -154 ML and +100 @ -3.5 for the Heat, atm).

----
Update (about 1545, Pac Time):

Celtics / Heat Game:
Heat 1520 to win 1000 ML
Heat 2500 to win 3000 @ -4.5

Reminder: Normally I don't hedge these kinds of bets, but for the Celtics / Heat game I "over-betted" the Celtics on purpose, so that I could "back the other team at better odds later".
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 18, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 18th, 2022 at 11:35:55 PM permalink
Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 12,050
P(L): (3,185)
Closing balance: 36,815

Note: I lost 1,500 from the last teaser mentioned (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

----
New Bet(s):

1,500 to win 1,575 on the: Celtics (G2) +8.5 / Warriors (G2) -1.5
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 21st, 2022 at 2:16:57 PM permalink
Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 13,550
P(L): (1,610)
Closing balance: 38,390

Note: I won 1,575 from the last teaser mentioned (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

----
New Bet(s):

1,500 to win 1,575 on the: Celtics (G3) -1.0 / Warriors (G3) +7.0
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 22nd, 2022 at 3:06:36 PM permalink
Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 15,050
P(L): (3,110)
Closing balance: 36,890

Note: I lost 1,500 from the last teaser mentioned (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

----
New Bet(s):

1,500 to win 1,575 on the: Warriors (G3) +8.0 / Heat (G4) +12.0
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 23rd, 2022 at 9:09:05 PM permalink
Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 16,550
P(L): (4,610)
Closing balance: 35,390

Note: I lost 1,500 from the last teaser mentioned (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

----
New Bet(s):

1,400 to win 1,470 on the: Warriors (G4) +6.0 / Heat (G5) +6.5
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 23rd, 2022 at 9:39:42 PM permalink
I just found out that I can get the same points and odds for WNBA teaser's.
IMO teasing WNBA is better value^^^ because I think each point is "worth a bit more", what do you think?

^^^: Reminder, 5-Pt teaser for: 2 - teams: +105, 3 - teams: +200, and 4 - teams: +340.

----
Below are a mix of WNBA and NBA teaser bets:

1) "Five x $80, 4 - Team Teasers":

Warriors (G4) +6.0 / Mystics -3.5 / Sun -3.5 / Sky -8.5 / Liberty +11.0

Max Loss: $400 and Max Win: $1,360

2) "Ten x $160, 3 - Team Teasers":

Warriors (G4) +6.0 / Mystics -3.5 / Sun -3.5 / Sky -8.5 / Liberty +11.0

Max Loss: $1,600 and Max Win: $3,200
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 25th, 2022 at 3:32:12 AM permalink
Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 19,950
P(L): (8,010)
Closing balance: 31,990

Note: All my teaser bets lost today , so (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

----
New Bet(s):

800 to win 1,600 on the: Heat (G5) +6.5 / Warriors (G5) -2.5 / Sparks (WNBA) +7.5
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 25th, 2022 at 9:37:18 PM permalink
Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 20,750
P(L): (8,810)
Closing balance: 31,190

Note: My last teaser bet lost (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

----
New Bet(s):

800 to win 1,600 on the: Mavs (G5) +12.5 / Sun (WNBA) -2.5 / Celtics (G6) -3.5
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 2nd, 2022 at 6:04:44 PM permalink
Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 21,550
P(L): (9,610)
Closing balance: 30,390

Note: My last teaser bet lost (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

----
New Bet(s):

1,000 to win 1,050 on the: Celtics (G1) +8.5 / Sun (WNBA) +10.0
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 2nd, 2022 at 9:22:08 PM permalink
Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 22,550
P(L): (8,560)
Closing balance: 31,440

Note: My last teaser bet won (this is included in the above "Result Summary")
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 5th, 2022 at 4:09:43 PM permalink
This won't count towards the figures in this thread because most of the games are at the half way mark, but I have the following teasers

5 x 200 4 - Team Teasers (max loss 1000 vs max profit +3,400)

10 x 200 3 - Team Teasers (max loss 2000 vs max profit +4,000)

WNBA: Sun +8.5, Wings +13.5, Mercury +7.5, Mystics +11.0
NBA: Celtics +10

Break-down of most possible results***:

All Teaser's win: +7,400
One Teaser loses... : +280
Two Teasers lose... : -2,400
All other results: -3,000

***: Mystics losing by exactly 11 and / or Celtics losing by 10 points are not included in the above break-down.


Edit at about 1745, Pac Time: see underline above.

Edit at about 2030, Pac Time: see strike-through and bold above.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 5, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 7th, 2022 at 3:41:19 PM permalink
New Bet(s):

1) 1,400 to win 1,470 on the: Warriors (G3) +8.5 / Storm (WNBA) -2.5

2) 500 to win 1,000 on the: Warriors (G3) +8.5 / Storm (WNBA) -2.5 / Lynx (WNBA) +7.5
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 9th, 2022 at 12:21:03 AM permalink
Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 24,450
P(L): (10,460)
Closing balance: 29,540

Note: My last teaser bet(s) lost (this is included in the above "Result Summary")
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 9th, 2022 at 5:49:54 PM permalink
New Bet(s): "4 x 400 3 - Team Teasers" (max loss 1,600 vs max profit +3,200) on the:
Warriors (G4) +9.0 / Sun (WNBA) -0.5^^^ / Fever (WNBA) +9.0 / Wings (WNBA) +8.0.

^^^: Normally I don't like teasing favorites if they go to -0.5 (or more) after being teased, but I think the Sun should be between -6.0 to -6.5 (could be wrong, but that is the way I think the line will move).

Reminder: I generally try to not have an opinion about the teams in this thread.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 11th, 2022 at 6:55:25 PM permalink
Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 26,050
P(L): (12,060)
Closing balance: 27,940

Note: My last teaser bet(s) lost (this is included in the above "Result Summary").

----
New Bet(s): 1,200 to win1,260 on the Sparks (WNBA) +12.5*** / Celtics (G5) +8.5

***: Game already in progress (currently half-time) and Sparks are down 17 : (
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