bowl game thought experiment
December 12th, 2010 at 4:36:23 PM
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If a sportsbook were to offer a parlay for all 35 bowl games and offered 10,000 to 1 with a $1,000 minimum bet, would it be worth it to play it? What would be the true odds to actually get all 35 games right?
December 12th, 2010 at 4:41:58 PM
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Quote: westgawolfIf a sportsbook were to offer a parlay for all 35 bowl games and offered 10,000 to 1 with a $1,000 minimum bet, would it be worth it to play it? What would be the true odds to actually get all 35 games right?
It would only be worth it to the casino at that level.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
December 12th, 2010 at 7:44:52 PM
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Double your wager+ win 35 times to get the true odds, if all the games were "coin flips".
You sequence (odds) would be:
1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512, 1024,2048,4096,8192,16384,32768,65536,131072,262144,524288, and this sequence is only 20x numbers. I ran out of fingers & toes.
Don't know how to express this in a formula.
hth
You sequence (odds) would be:
1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512, 1024,2048,4096,8192,16384,32768,65536,131072,262144,524288, and this sequence is only 20x numbers. I ran out of fingers & toes.
Don't know how to express this in a formula.
hth
December 12th, 2010 at 7:50:04 PM
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Quote: AZDuffmanIt would only be worth it to the casino at that level.
How about if it were 1,000,000 to 1 with $10 min? Is that still not a good value?
December 12th, 2010 at 7:56:06 PM
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Maybe I don't understand the question. Aren't the "fair" odds for winning all 35 coin-flip bets (2^35) for 1? That's just shy of 35 trillion for 1. If I got this correct, the million to 1 payout would be a huge house advantage.
December 13th, 2010 at 1:23:50 PM
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Quote: DocMaybe I don't understand the question. Aren't the "fair" odds for winning all 35 coin-flip bets (2^35) for 1? That's just shy of 35 trillion for 1. If I got this correct, the million to 1 payout would be a huge house advantage.
99.997% House advantage
December 13th, 2010 at 1:49:26 PM
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Quote: westgawolfHow about if it were 1,000,000 to 1 with $10 min? Is that still not a good value?
The amount of your wager has no impact on whether it is a "good value" or not.
The odds you are receiving are the determining factor of "good" or "bad" bet.
Although 1,000,000 sounds attractive, the math indicates that the true odds and much higher.
Actually worse odds than a lottery, yet people play those every week.
That's why they call it gambling, and not "winning".
December 13th, 2010 at 2:00:14 PM
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$10 Million : $1 for the 35-way parlay. It would be a fun way to get a ton of stupid tourists into your casinos (Harrah's anyone?).
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
December 13th, 2010 at 2:04:50 PM
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The odds are so long as to make the bet impossible to book. In order to comply with the minimum payback percentage regulations in Nevada (75% minimum payback), the casino would have to pay out around 260 billion dollars for that $10 bet, and no casino (or even casino corporation) has that much money.
The moral of the story: Long odds are not intuitive (or even intuitable, if that's a word). You have to really work out the numbers.
The moral of the story: Long odds are not intuitive (or even intuitable, if that's a word). You have to really work out the numbers.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
December 13th, 2010 at 3:28:46 PM
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What about a parley without a spread? Does it lower the numbers enough if I just have to pick winners?
December 13th, 2010 at 4:10:30 PM
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Sure, as you could take all the favourite.
But still get 35 games right would be very, very unlikely.
But still get 35 games right would be very, very unlikely.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
December 13th, 2010 at 6:21:40 PM
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Quote: thecesspitSure, as you could take all the favourite.
But still get 35 games right would be very, very unlikely.
I think we could set it up for fun. Certainly, some of the games are close with 1,2,or 3 pt spreads, so predicting winners without spreads should still be a challenge. At least enough to make it interesting.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
December 13th, 2010 at 6:36:32 PM
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Quote: AyecarumbaI think we could set it up for fun. Certainly, some of the games are close with 1,2,or 3 pt spreads, so predicting winners without spreads should still be a challenge. At least enough to make it interesting.
Interesting?
Take any weekend this year, or previous years, pick 35 college and pro games, the ones with big point spreads, take the favorite, and you are most likely almost guaranteed that there will be several results that failed to cover or lost outright.
December 20th, 2010 at 8:18:46 PM
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How funny would it be if a casino offered the bet. Paid 1,000,000 to 1... Some guy got the first 34 right.. and had Oregon for the last game of the parlay and lost. lmao
I know the Wizard HATES hedging bets.. but I think if I only had 1$ on that bet... it would be worth it to bet say 250,000$ (I would have had Auburn in my parlay) on Oregon
I know the Wizard HATES hedging bets.. but I think if I only had 1$ on that bet... it would be worth it to bet say 250,000$ (I would have had Auburn in my parlay) on Oregon
December 20th, 2010 at 9:40:51 PM
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Or how about someone who has Auburn at 100-1 to win the title before the season.
Auburn at 100-1 ticket
Auburn at 100-1 ticket
