Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
• Threads: 133
• Posts: 15308
February 3rd, 2022 at 6:40:23 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: SOOPOO

My recent experience is that when they call it a ‘free bet’ it disappears if you win OR lose. You do get to use it again if you push. You can do the math better than I can, and I think you should!!!! Question…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.
link to original post

That's my experience too, but I interpreted "I can't cash it out early" to maybe mean he could reuse it if he won the first time. His answer is still unclear to me.

If we go by your interpretation and forget the part about using other promotions, then a \$324.32 bet on the Bengals at +170, which is available at the Wynn and all Caesars casinos, would give him:

If Bengals win: \$324.32 * 2.7 = \$875.68
If Rams win: \$1200 - \$324.32 = \$875.68
link to original post

Some online sportsbooks will essentially allow you to trade in your bet slip in exchange for an immediate payout, but whether or not it will allow you depends on the type of bet that you have made.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
• Threads: 133
• Posts: 15308
February 3rd, 2022 at 7:02:18 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: SOOPOO

My recent experience is that when they call it a ‘free bet’ it disappears if you win OR lose. You do get to use it again if you push. You can do the math better than I can, and I think you should!!!! Question…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.
link to original post

That's my experience too, but I interpreted "I can't cash it out early" to maybe mean he could reuse it if he won the first time. His answer is still unclear to me.

If we go by your interpretation and forget the part about using other promotions, then a \$324.32 bet on the Bengals at +170, which is available at the Wynn and all Caesars casinos, would give him:

If Bengals win: \$324.32 * 2.7 = \$875.68
If Rams win: \$1200 - \$324.32 = \$875.68
link to original post

I apologize, but doesn't multiplying by 2.7 on the Bengals bet give you the total return as opposed to the amount gained? For the amount to be gained, I like:

(324.32 * 170/100) = \$551.34

When you multiply by 2.7, then you have to subtract the original bet amount from the other side to get the profit, so it would be:

(324.32 * 2.7) - 324.32 = \$551.34 (Rounded)

Which means he would profit either \$875.68 or \$551.34 depending on who wins. In order to tighten that range, he would want to bet more on the Bengals. A cash bet of \$450 would get you to a pretty tight range:

If Rams win: \$1200 - \$450 = \$750

If Bengals win: (450 * 170/100) = \$765 (Profit)

You could bet a few fewer dollars on the Bengals cash bet (literally, a few) if you wanted to tighten the \$15 dollar gap.

However, in a previous post, I believe I found an excellent promotion available in Michigan that you can use for the Bengals bet to lead to even better profits.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
• Threads: 115
• Posts: 8716
Thanks for this post from:
February 3rd, 2022 at 7:26:43 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Quote: SOOPOO

My recent experience is that when they call it a ‘free bet’ it disappears if you win OR lose. You do get to use it again if you push. You can do the math better than I can, and I think you should!!!! Question…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.
link to original post

That's my experience too, but I interpreted "I can't cash it out early" to maybe mean he could reuse it if he won the first time. His answer is still unclear to me.

If we go by your interpretation and forget the part about using other promotions, then a \$324.32 bet on the Bengals at +170, which is available at the Wynn and all Caesars casinos, would give him:

If Bengals win: \$324.32 * 2.7 = \$875.68
If Rams win: \$1200 - \$324.32 = \$875.68
link to original post

I ‘think’ you got it wrong? Since he has to put up \$324.32 of his own real money to make the bet, if the Bengals win he only gets \$324.32 x 1.7 = \$551.34 in profit.

So Bengals win \$551.34 in profit
Rams win \$875.68 in profit.

Edit…. I see I’m second to notice….
Wizard
Administrator
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Threads: 1423
• Posts: 24362
Thanks for this post from:
February 3rd, 2022 at 8:15:29 AM permalink
Soopoo and Mission -- You're both right. That was embarrassing and I have no excuse. The original post has been corrected.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
• Threads: 133
• Posts: 15308
February 3rd, 2022 at 8:19:39 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Soopoo and Mission -- You're both right. That was embarrassing and I have no excuse. The original post has been corrected.
link to original post

Don't be so hard on yourself! I basically teach myself the math that I have learned how to do by making mistakes and then figuring out what my mistakes are and correcting them. Anyone could have made that mistake and I definitely will make that same mistake, sooner or later, if I'm in a hurry.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Threads: 314
• Posts: 8826
February 3rd, 2022 at 9:07:28 AM permalink
do the right thing when this happens and edit your posts to remove the corrected math

type in a good joke
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
• Threads: 115
• Posts: 8716
February 3rd, 2022 at 10:27:04 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Soopoo and Mission -- You're both right. That was embarrassing and I have no excuse. The original post has been corrected.
link to original post

Off by \$324..... How about 108 sit ups for 3 straight days as a fitting punishment?

Full disclosure.... with all the sign ups I've done recently and the requirement for me to make (for me) a huge bet, I've been analyzing these hedge options quite carefully.
Wiggins
Joined: Mar 26, 2015
• Threads: 1
• Posts: 43
February 3rd, 2022 at 11:12:37 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Question…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.

Stole this graph from a discord server. The guy who posted it knows his stuff. OP did well with his Rams bet!

ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Threads: 89
• Posts: 1296
February 3rd, 2022 at 11:46:02 AM permalink
Quote: Wiggins

Quote: SOOPOO

Question…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.

Stole this graph from a discord server. The guy who posted it knows his stuff. OP did well with his Rams bet!

link to original post

Great stuff, especially when there is no "vig" in the odds.
But I think the "sweet-spot" is somewhere between \$4 and \$21 (3-1 and 20-1).
I will expand on this later, if you want to know why I think this (gtg).
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
• Threads: 314
• Posts: 8826
February 3rd, 2022 at 11:55:59 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: Wiggins

Quote: SOOPOO

Question…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.

Stole this graph from a discord server. The guy who posted it knows his stuff. OP did well with his Rams bet!

link to original post

Great stuff, especially when there is no "vig" in the odds.
But I think the "sweet-spot" is somewhere between \$4 and \$21 (3-1 and 20-1).
I will expand on this later, if you want to know why I think this (gtg).
link to original post

factor not included: skyrocketing variance as you go from that +100 to +3100

solution: huge bankroll and vast number of 'trials' [so to speak]

it's a problem
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

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