Advice hedging Super Bowl bet?
Quote: WizardQuote: SOOPOOMy recent experience is that when they call it a ‘free bet’ it disappears if you win OR lose. You do get to use it again if you push. You can do the math better than I can, and I think you should!!!! Question…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.
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That's my experience too, but I interpreted "I can't cash it out early" to maybe mean he could reuse it if he won the first time. His answer is still unclear to me.
If we go by your interpretation and forget the part about using other promotions, then a $324.32 bet on the Bengals at +170, which is available at the Wynn and all Caesars casinos, would give him:
If Bengals win: $324.32 * 2.7 = $875.68
If Rams win: $1200 - $324.32 = $875.68
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Some online sportsbooks will essentially allow you to trade in your bet slip in exchange for an immediate payout, but whether or not it will allow you depends on the type of bet that you have made.
Quote: WizardQuote: SOOPOOMy recent experience is that when they call it a ‘free bet’ it disappears if you win OR lose. You do get to use it again if you push. You can do the math better than I can, and I think you should!!!! Question…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.
link to original post
That's my experience too, but I interpreted "I can't cash it out early" to maybe mean he could reuse it if he won the first time. His answer is still unclear to me.
If we go by your interpretation and forget the part about using other promotions, then a $324.32 bet on the Bengals at +170, which is available at the Wynn and all Caesars casinos, would give him:
If Bengals win: $324.32 * 2.7 = $875.68
If Rams win: $1200 - $324.32 = $875.68
link to original post
I apologize, but doesn't multiplying by 2.7 on the Bengals bet give you the total return as opposed to the amount gained? For the amount to be gained, I like:
(324.32 * 170/100) = $551.34
When you multiply by 2.7, then you have to subtract the original bet amount from the other side to get the profit, so it would be:
(324.32 * 2.7) - 324.32 = $551.34 (Rounded)
Which means he would profit either $875.68 or $551.34 depending on who wins. In order to tighten that range, he would want to bet more on the Bengals. A cash bet of $450 would get you to a pretty tight range:
If Rams win: $1200 - $450 = $750
If Bengals win: (450 * 170/100) = $765 (Profit)
You could bet a few fewer dollars on the Bengals cash bet (literally, a few) if you wanted to tighten the $15 dollar gap.
However, in a previous post, I believe I found an excellent promotion available in Michigan that you can use for the Bengals bet to lead to even better profits.
Quote: WizardQuote: SOOPOOMy recent experience is that when they call it a ‘free bet’ it disappears if you win OR lose. You do get to use it again if you push. You can do the math better than I can, and I think you should!!!! Question…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.
link to original post
That's my experience too, but I interpreted "I can't cash it out early" to maybe mean he could reuse it if he won the first time. His answer is still unclear to me.
If we go by your interpretation and forget the part about using other promotions, then a $324.32 bet on the Bengals at +170, which is available at the Wynn and all Caesars casinos, would give him:
If Bengals win: $324.32 * 2.7 = $875.68
If Rams win: $1200 - $324.32 = $875.68
link to original post
I ‘think’ you got it wrong? Since he has to put up $324.32 of his own real money to make the bet, if the Bengals win he only gets $324.32 x 1.7 = $551.34 in profit.
So Bengals win $551.34 in profit
Rams win $875.68 in profit.
Edit…. I see I’m second to notice….
Quote: WizardSoopoo and Mission -- You're both right. That was embarrassing and I have no excuse. The original post has been corrected.
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Don't be so hard on yourself! I basically teach myself the math that I have learned how to do by making mistakes and then figuring out what my mistakes are and correcting them. Anyone could have made that mistake and I definitely will make that same mistake, sooner or later, if I'm in a hurry.
type in a good joke
Quote: WizardSoopoo and Mission -- You're both right. That was embarrassing and I have no excuse. The original post has been corrected.
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Off by $324..... How about 108 sit ups for 3 straight days as a fitting punishment?
Full disclosure.... with all the sign ups I've done recently and the requirement for me to make (for me) a huge bet, I've been analyzing these hedge options quite carefully.
Quote: SOOPOOQuestion…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.
Stole this graph from a discord server. The guy who posted it knows his stuff. OP did well with his Rams bet!
Quote: WigginsQuote: SOOPOOQuestion…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.
Stole this graph from a discord server. The guy who posted it knows his stuff. OP did well with his Rams bet!
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Great stuff, especially when there is no "vig" in the odds.
But I think the "sweet-spot" is somewhere between $4 and $21 (3-1 and 20-1).
I will expand on this later, if you want to know why I think this (gtg).
Quote: ksdjdjQuote: WigginsQuote: SOOPOOQuestion…. How do you maximize EV? I’ve been betting my free bets on around 3-1 or 4-1 underdogs.
Stole this graph from a discord server. The guy who posted it knows his stuff. OP did well with his Rams bet!
link to original post
Great stuff, especially when there is no "vig" in the odds.
But I think the "sweet-spot" is somewhere between $4 and $21 (3-1 and 20-1).
I will expand on this later, if you want to know why I think this (gtg).
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factor not included: skyrocketing variance as you go from that +100 to +3100
solution: huge bankroll and vast number of 'trials' [so to speak]
it's a problem
