ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 7th, 2022 at 6:16:59 PM permalink
My "game odds estimates" for all^^^ of the AFC teams still "fighting for a no 1 spot" :

^^^: The Bills can't make the "no 1 spot" this year, but the game could still be important for the other AFC teams' chances for getting the no 1 seed.

----
Jets (4-12): ~$11.6 (+1060)
Bills (10-6): ~$1.09 (-1060)

Note: I have the Bills between a ~89% and a ~95.3% chance of winning.

----
Titans (11-5): ~$1.28 (-355)
Texans (4-12): ~$4.55 (+355)

Note: I have the Texans between a ~17.7% and a ~27.8% chance of winning.
My Bet(s): I had a $100 bet on the Texans @ $5 (+400) ML and Texans +10.5 ATS, for $550 @ ~$1.91 (-110) .

----
Chiefs (11-5): ~$1.38 (-266)
Broncos (7-9): ~$3.66 (+266)

Note: I have the Broncos between a ~18.0% and a ~48.2% chance of winning.
My Bet(s): I had a $500 bet on the Broncos @ $5 (+400) ML and Broncos +11 ATS, for $550 @ ~$1.91 (-110) .

----
Bengals (10-6): ~$3.29 (+229)
Browns (7-9): ~$1.44 (-229)

Note: I have the Browns between a ~55% and a ~73.9% chance of winning.
Note 2: These estimates are only valid with Brandon Allen and Case Keenum in as starting QBs.

----
Patriots (10-6): ~$1.58 (-172)
Dolphins (8-8): ~$2.72 (+172)

Note: I have the Dolphins between a ~28.8% and a ~48.0% chance of winning.
My Bet(s): I had a $700 bet on the Dolphins @ $3.4 (+240) ML

----.
Other Bets

I also had another bet on the Colts @ Jags game and it was: Jags +14.5 ATS, for $750 @ $2 (+100)

----.
You can use my estimated game odds or your own, and the link below to help work out a teams estimated chances to get the "no 1 seed" in the AFC.
https://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/for-petes-sake/article257037867.html
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 7, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 8th, 2022 at 1:24:25 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
----
Chiefs (11-5): ~$1.38 (-266)
Broncos (7-9): ~$3.66 (+266)

Note: I have the Broncos between a ~18.0% and a ~48.2% chance of winning.
My Bet(s): I had a $500 bet on the Broncos @ $5 (+400) ML and Broncos +11 ATS, for $550 @ ~$1.91 (-110) .
(snip)
link to original post


I had another $500 bet on the Broncos @ $5.5 (+450) ML and Broncos +10.5 ATS, for $1000 @ $2.05 (+105) .
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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January 8th, 2022 at 1:32:41 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
----
Chiefs (11-5): ~$1.38 (-266)
Broncos (7-9): ~$3.66 (+266)

Note: I have the Broncos between a ~18.0% and a ~48.2% chance of winning.
My Bet(s): I had a $500 bet on the Broncos @ $5 (+400) ML and Broncos +11 ATS, for $550 @ ~$1.91 (-110) .
(snip)
link to original post


I had another $500 bet on the Broncos @ $5.5 (+450) ML and Broncos +10.5 ATS, for $1000 @ $2.05 (+105) .
link to original post



It is hard for me to understand your jargon.

Is this correct?

1. Bet $500 money line on Broncos to win $2250 profit
2. Bet $1000 on Broncos +10.5 to win $1050 profit
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 1255
January 8th, 2022 at 2:26:57 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
----
Chiefs (11-5): ~$1.38 (-266)
Broncos (7-9): ~$3.66 (+266)

Note: I have the Broncos between a ~18.0% and a ~48.2% chance of winning.
My Bet(s): I had a $500 bet on the Broncos @ $5 (+400) ML and Broncos +11 ATS, for $550 @ ~$1.91 (-110) .
(snip)
link to original post


I had another $500 bet on the Broncos @ $5.5 (+450) ML and Broncos +10.5 ATS, for $1000 @ $2.05 (+105) .
link to original post



It is hard for me to understand your jargon.

Is this correct?

1. Bet $500 money line on Broncos to win $2250 profit
2. Bet $1000 on Broncos +10.5 to win $1050 profit
link to original post


Yes
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 8th, 2022 at 5:00:49 PM permalink
Cowboys (11-5): ~$1.65 (-154)
Eagles (9-7): ~$2.54 (+154)

Bets:

1: $3300 to win $3000 on the Eagles @ +6.5
2: $200 to win $2200 on the Cowboys, to win by 2 or 3 points.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 8th, 2022 at 8:53:16 PM permalink
Bets and "current estimated odds":
----
Colts (9-7): ~$1.17 (-590)
Jags (2-14): $6.90 (+590)

1: $3450 to win $3460 on the Jags @ +14.5
2: $60 to win $480 on the Jags, money line.

----
Titans (11-5): ~$1.32 (-310)
Texans (4-12): ~$4.10 (+310)

1: $2750 to win $2500 on the Texans @ +10.5.
2: $250 to win $1000 on the Texans, money line

Note: My estimated odds have changed for this game.

----
Bengals (10-6): ~$3.29 (+229)
Browns (7-9): ~$1.44 (-229)

1: $800 to win $8000 on the Browns, to win by 2 or 3 points.

----
Patriots (10-6): ~$1.63 (-160)
Dolphins (8-8): ~$2.60 (+160)

1: $2200 to win $2000 on the Dolphins @ + 6
2: $2000 to win $4670 on the Dolphins, money line

Note: My estimated odds have changed for this game.

----.
Steelers (8-7-1): $2.03 (+103)
Ravens (8-8): ~$1.97 (-103)

1: $4000 to win $6600 on the Steelers, money line.

Note: My estimated odds have changed for this game.

----
Chargers(9-7): ~$1.76 (-132)
Raiders (9-7): $2.32 (+132)

1: $800 to win $8800 on the Chargers, to win by 2 or 3 points.
2: $400 to win $7200 on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 8, 2022
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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January 9th, 2022 at 6:53:13 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj


2: $400 to win $7200 on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
link to original post



I like that bet for Raiders to win by 3 at 18-1.
Order from chaos
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 89
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January 9th, 2022 at 2:06:48 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: ksdjdj


2: $400 to win $7200 on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
link to original post




I like that bet for Raiders to win by 3 at 18-1.
link to original post


Me too, I was tossing up whether to have $400 or $500 (I may still have an extra $100 on it).

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
Chargers(9-7): ~$1.76 (-132)
Raiders (9-7): $2.32 (+132)

1: $800 to win $8800 on the Chargers, to win by 2 or 3 points. (snip)
link to original post


The funny thing with the Chargers is, if I wanted them to win by exactly 3 I can only get 10/1, but the odds on offer for Chargers by 2 or 3 points are 11/1 ( with the same sports-book).

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
Patriots (10-6): ~$1.63 (-160)
Dolphins (8-8): ~$2.60 (+160)


1: $2200 to win $2000 on the Dolphins @ + 6
2: $2000 to win $4670 on the Dolphins, money line (snip)
link to original post


Because of a "promo with the sports-book", I just need the Dolphins to score at least 3 more points ("17+ point lead at anytime") and I automatically win the money line bet.

Edit (about 210 PM, Pac Time): Dolphins up by 17 (yes!!!)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 9, 2022
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 1255
January 9th, 2022 at 3:42:13 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
----
Chargers(9-7): ~$1.76 (-132)
Raiders (9-7): $2.32 (+132)

1: $800 to win $8800 on the Chargers, to win by 2 or 3 points.
2: $400 to win $7200 on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
link to original post


Had another bet on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.

My total bet is now: $500 to win $9000 on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
January 9th, 2022 at 9:23:21 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip)
----
Chargers(9-7): ~$1.76 (-132)
Raiders (9-7): $2.32 (+132)

1: $800 to win $8800 on the Chargers, to win by 2 or 3 points.
2: $400 to win $7200 on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
link to original post


Had another bet on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.

My total bet is now: $500 to win $9000 on the Raiders, to win by 3 points.
link to original post



You had a profitable weekend!
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

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