Bills/Pats MNF

Quote: Wizard

In sports betting, I like to a contrarian. If the masses are on the under, then the line probably moved too much. I'd put a small fun wager on the over if I had an out.
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Quote: Wizard

In sports betting, I like to a contrarian. If the masses are on the under, then the line probably moved too much. I'd put a small fun wager on the over if I had an out.
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Quote: unJon

Wiz, have you ever looked at the data on that? Say if opening line is 2.5 different than closing line, and you bet against move at closing line, what the results are?

I’ve always heard that if the move isn’t injury driven than the people setting the line are smarter than the betting public. Though that flies in the face of the concept of closing line value also . . .
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Quote: Wizard

Quote: unJon

Wiz, have you ever looked at the data on that? Say if opening line is 2.5 different than closing line, and you bet against move at closing line, what the results are?

I’ve always heard that if the move isn’t injury driven than the people setting the line are smarter than the betting public. Though that flies in the face of the concept of closing line value also . . .
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I've looked at data that shows the difference between the final score and the line is smaller using closing lines than opening. However, that data does not address the reason for the line movement.

My opinion, and I have nothing to prove it, is the masses overreact to everything. For example, a star player getting benched for deflating the football or beating his wife. As to weather, I think the public also overreacts to games in extreme weather. Wind is the most important factor, when it comes to weather, affecting outdoors sports, so they are right to factor that in, but the masses over-factor it. Cold weather, rain, and snow, I think do not affect football much.
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Quote: unJon

I hear you and you got CLV so that’s great. But the line opened at 46 so you missed 4 points. Hopefully you got in before the overreaction! Anyway, good luck. I just saw a stat that Allen’s QB rating is higher when the wind speed at kickoff is 20+mph than when it’s below that.
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Quote: Marcusclark66

Both teams are from the exact same weather they are playing in. It’s not like the Dolphins or say the Cowboys playing at the Bills or The Patriots stadium.
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I dont care if you live in Antarica, throwing or kicking a football in 20-60 mph winds isnt easy!

Quote: mwalz9

Quote: Marcusclark66

Both teams are from the exact same weather they are playing in. It’s not like the Dolphins or say the Cowboys playing at the Bills or The Patriots stadium.
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I dont care if you live in Antarica, throwing or kicking a football in 20-60 mph winds isnt easy!
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Quote: mwalz9

Under cashed easily!
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Quote: mwalz9

I love games where 20-25% of the tickets but close to 50% of the money is on a side. That tells me I am on the side of the sharps AND the sports books.

Quote: EdCollins

Quote: mwalz9

I love games where 20-25% of the tickets but close to 50% of the money is on a side. That tells me I am on the side of the sharps AND the sports books.

Question: Where are you getting these numbers from?

There was a discussion regarding this (amount of money on each side, handle, etc. for each NFL game) in another handicapping forum. The consensus of the forum was, wherever you are getting these numbers from, the data is not reliable... and in fact is most likely "made up."

Mathew Holt, the ex sportbook manager at the Westgate, said that no sportsbook ever will give out their transaction log to any 3rd party ever. Ditto the current sportsbook manager over at Boyd Gaming, Bob Scucci. Anyone who thinks they are getting real sportsbook figures (handle and ticket counts) is delirious.

There is no gaming entity in Vegas, the Caribbean or Europe that just opens their ledger to the general public. Think about it. These are publicly traded companies. Their daily transactional ledger is not public information and never will be.

IF a major sportsbook wanted to publish this data, they'd publish it on their own website, and not let a 3rd party do it.

The fact of the matter is all of the handle and ticket counts and percentages are nothing more than "gimmicks." They are published for the sole reason of enticing you to place a bet on either side. No sports book is just handing out their data. Nor are they charging for it. They wouldn't do it even if they were allowed.
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Quote: mwalz9

I got in on the under early based on weather forecast at o/u 42 pts.

FanDuel has since dropped it to 37.5 as of this post.

The wind is expected to maintain 25-30 mph during the game, with gust up to 60mph at times. Twitter is already filled with pics and videos from pre-game.

I look for this one to be waaaaaaaaay under.

Quote: EdCollins

There was a discussion regarding this (amount of money on each side, handle, etc. for each NFL game) in another handicapping forum. The consensus of the forum was, wherever you are getting these numbers from, the data is not reliable... and in fact is most likely "made up."

Mathew Holt, the ex sportbook manager at the Westgate, said that no sportsbook ever will give out their transaction log to any 3rd party ever. Ditto the current sportsbook manager over at Boyd Gaming, Bob Scucci. Anyone who thinks they are getting real sportsbook figures (handle and ticket counts) is delirious.

There is no gaming entity in Vegas, the Caribbean or Europe that just opens their ledger to the general public. Think about it. These are publicly traded companies. Their daily transactional ledger is not public information and never will be.

IF a major sportsbook wanted to publish this data, they'd publish it on their own website, and not let a 3rd party do it.

The fact of the matter is all of the handle and ticket counts and percentages are nothing more than "gimmicks." They are published for the sole reason of enticing you to place a bet on either side. No sports book is just handing out their data. Nor are they charging for it. They wouldn't do it even if they were allowed.

Quote: Marcusclark66

Advertising, social media any other forms of marketing for a business are always truthful, always spot on and always verifiable, yeah sure.

Quote: Marcusclark66

You know you speak to one casino executive and he says, our Baccarat tables lose more money than any other tables in our casino. You speak to another casino executive at the same casino and he says, you know our baccarat tables win us more money than any of the other tables.