Thread Rating:

Yoyomama
Yoyomama
Joined: Oct 11, 2010
  • Threads: 43
  • Posts: 195
November 21st, 2021 at 4:18:58 AM permalink
The #23 Utes punished #3 Oregon last night. Oregon was a +140 (Caesars) all week on the money line? Obviously Vegas had it right.

How was the rankings so far off from reality? Thank you.
vegas
vegas
Joined: Apr 27, 2012
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 576
November 21st, 2021 at 6:15:10 AM permalink
When you see a line that looks way wrong, go with the bookies instead of against them . Books knew most of the money would go on the #3 team. It was made this way for a reason.
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 203
  • Posts: 12074
November 21st, 2021 at 6:21:18 AM permalink
The Utes had three losses going into the game. I'm not sure how you could rank them higher. It's obvious they are better than their 7-3 record before the game but you can't overlook three losses.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 112
  • Posts: 8301
November 21st, 2021 at 6:54:05 AM permalink
Quote: Yoyomama

The #23 Utes punished #3 Oregon last night. Oregon was a +140 (Caesars) all week on the money line? Obviously Vegas had it right.

How was the rankings so far off from reality? Thank you.
link to original post



No one believes the rankings are a true ‘power ranking’. Cincinnati would be a road underdog to probably a dozen teams ranked below it. Ohio State is ranked 5th in the AP and Cincinnati is ranked 3rd. Cincy at OSU is probably 22 point underdog. The AP voters (rightly or wrongly) count a win against the cupcakes Cincy plays more than a loss against Georgia. You think if Alabama loses to Georgia they are still not a better team than Cincinnati? Even with two losses this season?
Mission146
Mission146 
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 132
  • Posts: 15038
November 21st, 2021 at 7:05:29 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: Yoyomama

The #23 Utes punished #3 Oregon last night. Oregon was a +140 (Caesars) all week on the money line? Obviously Vegas had it right.

How was the rankings so far off from reality? Thank you.
link to original post



No one believes the rankings are a true ‘power ranking’. Cincinnati would be a road underdog to probably a dozen teams ranked below it. Ohio State is ranked 5th in the AP and Cincinnati is ranked 3rd. Cincy at OSU is probably 22 point underdog. The AP voters (rightly or wrongly) count a win against the cupcakes Cincy plays more than a loss against Georgia. You think if Alabama loses to Georgia they are still not a better team than Cincinnati? Even with two losses this season?
link to original post



Yeah, but to an extent, records should be given more than zero consideration.

For instance, one of the polls had Michigan above Michigan State going into this week, despite the fact that both teams had one loss and Michigan’s loss was to…you guessed it…Michigan State.

Of course, Sparty got walloped by Ohio State this week and Michigan has not played Ohio State yet, but without knowing that was going to happen…if you have two one loss teams and one beat the other, then it seems to me the victorious team should be the higher ranked*.

*I’m not saying always, necessarily, but mainly if the rankings are anywhere close in the first place. Michigan and Michigan State were either just above or below each other, depending on the poll.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 112
  • Posts: 8301
November 21st, 2021 at 7:15:02 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: Yoyomama

The #23 Utes punished #3 Oregon last night. Oregon was a +140 (Caesars) all week on the money line? Obviously Vegas had it right.

How was the rankings so far off from reality? Thank you.
link to original post



No one believes the rankings are a true ‘power ranking’. Cincinnati would be a road underdog to probably a dozen teams ranked below it. Ohio State is ranked 5th in the AP and Cincinnati is ranked 3rd. Cincy at OSU is probably 22 point underdog. The AP voters (rightly or wrongly) count a win against the cupcakes Cincy plays more than a loss against Georgia. You think if Alabama loses to Georgia they are still not a better team than Cincinnati? Even with two losses this season?
link to original post



Yeah, but to an extent, records should be given more than zero consideration.

For instance, one of the polls had Michigan above Michigan State going into this week, despite the fact that both teams had one loss and Michigan’s loss was to…you guessed it…Michigan State.

Of course, Sparty got walloped by Ohio State this week and Michigan has not played Ohio State yet, but without knowing that was going to happen…if you have two one loss teams and one beat the other, then it seems to me the victorious team should be the higher ranked*.

*I’m not saying always, necessarily, but mainly if the rankings are anywhere close in the first place. Michigan and Michigan State were either just above or below each other, depending on the poll.
link to original post



Of course your post doesn’t pass the sniff test. Easiest example is 3 teams all with one loss. If they are 1, 2, and 3, and each has beaten one of the 3, and lost to one of the 3, it is impossible to not be above a team you lost to, as well as being below a team you beat. If Michigan’s one loss is to Michigan State, and they played a much harder schedule than MSU, and MSU’s one loss is to a weak team, and they played an easier schedule, no way MSU should be ranked ahead of Michigan just because they beat them. It makes as much sense as the analyst who says ‘wow, the momentum is now with team X. And it has changed 12 times this game’!

Edit…. My first example is using 3 teams which doesn’t really address your post. My second example is EXACTLY why two one loss teams are not ranked the way you suggest. USUALLY it works out the way you want, but Michigan/MSU is the perfect example why it doesn’t always.
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 2882
November 21st, 2021 at 7:19:47 AM permalink
Oregon was pretty much ranked highly almost solely on the basis of beating Ohio St. early in the season, mostly been winning unconvincingly in a weak Pac-12.

Alabama isn’t really Alabama this year no way they should get in with two losses if they lose to Georgia. That secondary just plain sucks while it’s usually loaded with nfl talent. SEC actually looks flat out weak outside of Georgia compared to how they usually are.
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 2882
November 21st, 2021 at 7:21:37 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: Yoyomama

The #23 Utes punished #3 Oregon last night. Oregon was a +140 (Caesars) all week on the money line? Obviously Vegas had it right.

How was the rankings so far off from reality? Thank you.
link to original post



No one believes the rankings are a true ‘power ranking’. Cincinnati would be a road underdog to probably a dozen teams ranked below it. Ohio State is ranked 5th in the AP and Cincinnati is ranked 3rd. Cincy at OSU is probably 22 point underdog. The AP voters (rightly or wrongly) count a win against the cupcakes Cincy plays more than a loss against Georgia. You think if Alabama loses to Georgia they are still not a better team than Cincinnati? Even with two losses this season?
link to original post



I do not think Alabama is better than Cincy this year, no. Bama is WEAK this year, for Bama, IMO.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 112
  • Posts: 8301
November 21st, 2021 at 7:32:10 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: Yoyomama

The #23 Utes punished #3 Oregon last night. Oregon was a +140 (Caesars) all week on the money line? Obviously Vegas had it right.

How was the rankings so far off from reality? Thank you.
link to original post



No one believes the rankings are a true ‘power ranking’. Cincinnati would be a road underdog to probably a dozen teams ranked below it. Ohio State is ranked 5th in the AP and Cincinnati is ranked 3rd. Cincy at OSU is probably 22 point underdog. The AP voters (rightly or wrongly) count a win against the cupcakes Cincy plays more than a loss against Georgia. You think if Alabama loses to Georgia they are still not a better team than Cincinnati? Even with two losses this season?
link to original post



I do not think Alabama is better than Cincy this year, no. Bama is WEAK this year, for Bama, IMO.
link to original post



I guess I used a bad example this year in Alabama. After typing first sentence, I check what is called Sagarin football ratings. Neutral field he has Alabama around 10 point favorite over Cincinnati. So I stand by my statement.

I KNOW Alabama is a better team than Cincinnati. Can we make a provisional bet that if they play we have a bet on who wins at even money? I mean, you said you think Cincy is better than Bama this year, right? Pick any reasonable amount of money and let’s do it! If Bama beats Georgia it’s not impossible Bama is 1 seed and Cincy 4 seed.

I wil AGREE with you that Bama is weaker this year than usual. That’s why they are ONLY 10 points better than Cincy.
Mission146
Mission146 
Joined: May 15, 2012
  • Threads: 132
  • Posts: 15038
November 21st, 2021 at 7:50:20 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



Of course your post doesn’t pass the sniff test. Easiest example is 3 teams all with one loss. If they are 1, 2, and 3, and each has beaten one of the 3, and lost to one of the 3, it is impossible to not be above a team you lost to, as well as being below a team you beat. If Michigan’s one loss is to Michigan State, and they played a much harder schedule than MSU, and MSU’s one loss is to a weak team, and they played an easier schedule, no way MSU should be ranked ahead of Michigan just because they beat them. It makes as much sense as the analyst who says ‘wow, the momentum is now with team X. And it has changed 12 times this game’!

Edit…. My first example is using 3 teams which doesn’t really address your post. My second example is EXACTLY why two one loss teams are not ranked the way you suggest. USUALLY it works out the way you want, but Michigan/MSU is the perfect example why it doesn’t always.
link to original post



Only in the world of College Football Rankings would Sparty NOT be above Michigan State in this instance.

For starters, they play in the same Conference and Division...so even though Sparty lost to Perdue (another Conference team, week after they beat Michigan)...they've got Division/Conference tiebreaker on Michigan by virtue of head to head. Only in the subjective rankings that we know are already gimmicked for legacy teams does Sparty not outrank Michigan in that instance.

According to this:

http://powerrankingsguru.com/college-football/strength-of-schedule.php

Michigan's Strength of Schedule was only 19 ranks higher, so I don't think even that is enough to offset actually losing to the team that is still ranked below you.

And, we're not talking about three teams who all have one win against each other. We're talking about two teams where one beat the other and, even prior to losing, was ranked below the team that they beat.

By the way:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/rankings/_/week/8/year/2021/seasontype/2

If you look at Week 8, they had Michigan outranking Sparty when the latter was still unbeaten and Michigan's loss was to Sparty.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

  • Jump to: