Deficits overcome in the NFL

In my live stream last Thursday somebody mentioned a promotion with a sports betting app somewhere that automatically graded a money line bet in the NFL as a winner if the team was 17 or more points ahead. I was asked how often that happens.

Before I get into it, a good example of a large deficit overcome was Super Bowl 51, where the Patriots were losing to the Falcons 28 to 3, and went onto win. I just had to rub that into any Falcon fans out there.

The following table is based on every NFL game played between and including the 2000 to 2015 seasons. It shows the largest deficit by the winning team, or alternatively the most the losing team was ever ahead. The 0 row means the winning team was never behind. The probability column is based on games resolved, so doesn't include the five ties.

Deficit	Count	Probability
Tie	5
0	1804	0.437227
1	100	0.024237
2	29	0.007029
3	560	0.135725
4	235	0.056956
5	23	0.005574
6	131	0.031750
7	622	0.150751
8	39	0.009452
9	34	0.008240
10	195	0.047261
11	84	0.020359
12	14	0.003393
13	49	0.011876
14	104	0.025206
15	10	0.002424
16	6	0.001454
17	36	0.008725
18	14	0.003393
19	2	0.000485
20	4	0.000969
21	22	0.005332
22	0	0.000000
23	2	0.000485
24	5	0.001212
25	1	0.000242
26	0	0.000000
27	0	0.000000
28	1	0.000242
Total	4131	1.000000

This shows 87 games saw a deficit of 17 or more points overcome, for a probability of 2.1%.

A lot of work went into calculating this figure, so I thought I'd mention it. Questions or comments?

Quote: Wizard

In my live stream last Thursday somebody mentioned a promotion with a sports betting app somewhere that automatically graded a money line bet in the NFL as a winner if the team was 17 or more points ahead. I was asked how often that happens.

Before I get into it, a good example of a large deficit overcome was Super Bowl 51, where the Patriots were losing to the Falcons 28 to 3, and went onto win. I just had to rub that into any Falcon fans out there.

The following table is based on every NFL game played between and including the 2000 to 2015 seasons. It shows the largest deficit by the winning team, or alternatively the most the losing team was ever ahead. The 0 row means the winning team was never behind. The probability column is based on games resolved, so doesn't include the five ties.


A lot of work went into calculating this figure, so I thought I'd mention it. Questions or comments?
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I am assuming this includes post-season but not exhibition season?

Looks like a good use for in game bets but the average person will need that explained to them.

One thing I would ask is do you have any opinion of how going over a key number affects things? eg: being behind by 11 is basically the same as being behind by 12. So should any such numbers be "grouped" to count probability in terms of betting.

Good work. With the ever increasing ‘protection’ of NFL QB’s, and WR’s for that matter, there will be more such events. I’ll bet 2021 games exceed that 2.1% mark.

Quote: AZDuffman

I am assuming this includes post-season but not exhibition season?

Yes, exactly.

Quote:

One thing I would ask is do you have any opinion of how going over a key number affects things? eg: being behind by 11 is basically the same as being behind by 12. So should any such numbers be "grouped" to count probability in terms of betting.
link to original post

I'm surprise how often you see 11 as a margin. It's always tricky analyzing bets that you don't have much data on. I would probably look at the whole curve and interpolate for uncommon margins.

Quote: Wizard

Quote: AZDuffman

I am assuming this includes post-season but not exhibition season?

Yes, exactly.

Quote:

One thing I would ask is do you have any opinion of how going over a key number affects things? eg: being behind by 11 is basically the same as being behind by 12. So should any such numbers be "grouped" to count probability in terms of betting.
link to original post

I'm surprise how often you see 11 as a margin. It's always tricky analyzing bets that you don't have much data on. I would probably look at the whole curve and interpolate for uncommon margins.
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I know it is a ton of work but it might be interesting to see if the playoffs differ from regular season. OTOH I am not going to use it for in-game betting as I have enough bad habits and do not need yet one more. I will stick to watching stock price ticks on options expiration Fridays for that rush.