mwalz9
mwalz9
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October 8th, 2021 at 3:22:04 PM permalink
I have been having a ton of fun playing FanDuel's Single Game head to Head matchups against 1 other person this whole baseball playoff season so far.

For those not familiar, you can play for $1, $5, $10, $25, $50, $100, etc...

Every player is assigned a salary. You must stay under salary cap. You select 5 players total. 1 is your MVP, he gets 2x the points as a normal player, next is your STAR who gets 1.5x the points as a normal player. Then you get 3 utility guys with standard stats.

Like I said, I do the head to head vs 1 other random player. It makes the games super fun to watch.

FanDuel rakes 10% of the pot and the winner gets the 90%.

I'm 4-1 in my matchups thru the 5 games that have finished. Anyone else play on there at all?
unJon
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October 8th, 2021 at 3:28:41 PM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

I have been having a ton of fun playing FanDuel's Single Game head to Head matchups against 1 other person this whole baseball playoff season so far.

For those not familiar, you can play for $1, $5, $10, $25, $50, $100, etc...

Every player is assigned a salary. You must stay under salary cap. You select 5 players total. 1 is your MVP, he gets 2x the points as a normal player, next is your STAR who gets 1.5x the points as a normal player. Then you get 3 utility guys with standard stats.

Like I said, I do the head to head vs 1 other random player. It makes the games super fun to watch.

FanDuel rakes 10% of the pot and the winner gets the 90%.

I'm 4-1 in my matchups thru the 5 games that have finished. Anyone else play on there at all?
link to original post



So you bet $10 to win $18? Steep rake.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
mwalz9
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October 8th, 2021 at 4:12:18 PM permalink
No different than the vig on an standard sports bet.
unJon
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October 8th, 2021 at 5:04:58 PM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

No different than the vig on an standard sports bet.
link to original post



$11 to win $21 is better than $10 to win $18.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
mwalz9
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October 8th, 2021 at 5:17:10 PM permalink
Barely.
mwalz9
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October 8th, 2021 at 5:21:21 PM permalink
I see value in it. I feel the true odds of me knowing more than a random about baseball is better than -125!
unJon
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October 8th, 2021 at 5:30:04 PM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

I see value in it. I feel the true odds of me knowing more than a random about baseball is better than -125!
link to original post



There you go. And it does sound fun. I was just posting to point out that a 25 cent line is worse than a 10 cent line (and more than “barely”!)
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
mwalz9
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October 8th, 2021 at 5:40:51 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: mwalz9

I see value in it. I feel the true odds of me knowing more than a random about baseball is better than -125!
link to original post



There you go. And it does sound fun. I was just posting to point out that a 25 cent line is worse than a 10 cent line (and more than “barely”!)
link to original post



I'm a don't player at craps. Laying -110, -125, isnt a big deal to me if there's value.

Ive laid -400 on money line favorites Ive felt were 99.9% winners.
redietz
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October 10th, 2021 at 9:34:20 PM permalink
I've played the single game football, not head-to-head, but in the usual type tournaments. Interestingly, I do better in single game than in the usual full roster tournaments. I suspect that has to do with the cartels having to spread in the single game format so as to assure themselves the top prizes, so it becomes easier for a vanilla lineup to cash because the cartels cover some pretty avant-garde stuff to assure themselves the top prizes.

I think the problem with the assigned vs. "a random" is that as the stakes go up, you wind up playing against either people who really know what they're doing or programs with a history of generating optimal rosters to win head-to-heads.

I don't play very much because the problem with FanDuel tournaments, which you circumvent in some ways by doing head-to-head, is that it isn't all that tough to cash, but as in poker tournaments, the money is so weighted to the top few spots that you spin your wheels just doubling or tripling your money if you finish in the top 20% to 10%. The money is too top heavy for my taste. Plus I'm not a big fantasy fan. I did a short piece about fantasy sports back in July.

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot.com/2021/07/when-fantasy-goes-bad.html
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
mwalz9
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October 11th, 2021 at 8:06:41 AM permalink
Quote: redietz

I've played the single game football, not head-to-head, but in the usual type tournaments. Interestingly, I do better in single game than in the usual full roster tournaments. I suspect that has to do with the cartels having to spread in the single game format so as to assure themselves the top prizes, so it becomes easier for a vanilla lineup to cash because the cartels cover some pretty avant-garde stuff to assure themselves the top prizes.

I think the problem with the assigned vs. "a random" is that as the stakes go up, you wind up playing against either people who really know what they're doing or programs with a history of generating optimal rosters to win head-to-heads.

I don't play very much because the problem with FanDuel tournaments, which you circumvent in some ways by doing head-to-head, is that it isn't all that tough to cash, but as in poker tournaments, the money is so weighted to the top few spots that you spin your wheels just doubling or tripling your money if you finish in the top 20% to 10%. The money is too top heavy for my taste. Plus I'm not a big fantasy fan. I did a short piece about fantasy sports back in July.

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot.com/2021/07/when-fantasy-goes-bad.html
link to original post



I agree with you 100%. I stick to head to head, single game, small stakes prizes in the "Experienced Players Excluded" section. It's nearly impossible to win one of those bigger tournaments. Basically a lottery.
redietz
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October 11th, 2021 at 3:01:21 PM permalink
So I played the single game tonight, using Jackson as the 1.5X and then filling in with Taylor, Murray, Andrews and Watkins.

I guess this would be considered a reach of a lineup without using Wentz, but I didn't see a way to construct anything of better value with him. Taylor may get stoned by the Ravens defense, but that was my choice. We'll see how it goes. If Wentz throws two TD passes, a distinct possibility, this lineup is dead meat.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
mwalz9
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October 11th, 2021 at 3:27:21 PM permalink
Quote: redietz

So I played the single game tonight, using Jackson as the 1.5X and then filling in with Taylor, Murray, Andrews and Watkins.

I guess this would be considered a reach of a lineup without using Wentz, but I didn't see a way to construct anything of better value with him. Taylor may get stoned by the Ravens defense, but that was my choice. We'll see how it goes. If Wentz throws two TD passes, a distinct possibility, this lineup is dead meat.
link to original post



I played too. I also used Lamar as the MVP 1.5x. I paired him with Wentz, Pittman, Murray, and Hines.
redietz
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October 11th, 2021 at 3:37:39 PM permalink
Pittman is the underrated sleeper. If Wentz connects with Pittman once, you are in.

I looked at Pittman as a first TD possibility, which I may play after three shots of Jack Daniels once a year. But he was just 11-1 most places, and that whole prop category is worse than playing roulette with five zeroes. Maybe 10 years ago, there were reasonable numbers, but not lately.

I like your lineup more than mine.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
SOOPOO
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October 11th, 2021 at 4:52:14 PM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

Quote: unJon

Quote: mwalz9

I see value in it. I feel the true odds of me knowing more than a random about baseball is better than -125!
link to original post



There you go. And it does sound fun. I was just posting to point out that a 25 cent line is worse than a 10 cent line (and more than “barely”!)
link to original post



I'm a don't player at craps. Laying -110, -125, isnt a big deal to me if there's value.

Ive laid -400 on money line favorites Ive felt were 99.9% winners.
link to original post



99.9% winners are not -400. Please post in advance any team you think has a 99.9% chance to win and is only -400. I won’t hold my breath.
mwalz9
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October 11th, 2021 at 4:53:52 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: mwalz9

Quote: unJon

Quote: mwalz9

I see value in it. I feel the true odds of me knowing more than a random about baseball is better than -125!
link to original post



There you go. And it does sound fun. I was just posting to point out that a 25 cent line is worse than a 10 cent line (and more than “barely”!)
link to original post



I'm a don't player at craps. Laying -110, -125, isnt a big deal to me if there's value.

Ive laid -400 on money line favorites Ive felt were 99.9% winners.
link to original post



99.9% winners are not -400. Please post in advance any team you think has a 99.9% chance to win and is only -400. I won’t hold my breath.
link to original post



I said a team I felt was a 99.9% winner. Not a true 99.9% winner. I'm not the best odds or statistics guy in here, by a long shot, but I'm also not stupid.
SOOPOO
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October 11th, 2021 at 4:57:25 PM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: mwalz9

Quote: unJon

Quote: mwalz9

I see value in it. I feel the true odds of me knowing more than a random about baseball is better than -125!
link to original post



There you go. And it does sound fun. I was just posting to point out that a 25 cent line is worse than a 10 cent line (and more than “barely”!)
link to original post



I'm a don't player at craps. Laying -110, -125, isnt a big deal to me if there's value.

Ive laid -400 on money line favorites Ive felt were 99.9% winners.
link to original post



99.9% winners are not -400. Please post in advance any team you think has a 99.9% chance to win and is only -400. I won’t hold my breath.
link to original post



I said a team I felt was a 99.9% winner. Not a true 99.9% winner. I'm not the best odds or statistics guy in here, by a long shot, but I'm also not stupid.
link to original post



My point was that you ‘think’ a team should win 99.9% of the time but more likely is between 75 and 80% if you have to lay -400.
gordonm888
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October 11th, 2021 at 5:20:37 PM permalink
I'm reading this thread carefully, because I'm interested in this subject and want to learn.

The people I know who play these kinds of 1:1 fanduels contests seem to be pretty knowledgable and put a fair amount of effort into being knowledgable. And everyone presumably has access to the same internet articles and free 'tips.' So where, in general, does the edge come from? Is it developing some key insight on an undervalued player, or understanding what options an opposition defense will likely shut down, or just hoping for a clueless opponent?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
mwalz9
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October 11th, 2021 at 5:29:57 PM permalink
My matchup for tonight has now been set my opponent has Taylor & Watkins. I have Ptitman and Hines. The rest of our lineup is the same those are the only differences.
redietz
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October 11th, 2021 at 5:31:16 PM permalink
I suggest you read my blog entry listed in one post and then dig up the exposes on fantasy sports. The main "edge" in most of these tournament contests has been an economy of scale melded to insider access to what percent of the general population has taken what players. In the none-single-entry contests, which feature the vast majority of the money available, cartels enter literally thousands of entries to cover most likely winning rosters, aided by roster optimizing programs.

Now head to head is a different animal, and that is what mwalz is tackling. Assuming the other people you are up against are truly randomly chosen, you are pitting your knowledge and judgement against someone else's, and that can be a good deal. No roster optimizing program can currently out-think an expert evaluating a game being played in the snow, for example.

Quick note: Five minutes into the game, I am right on the cashing cusp, sitting 1000th out of 7,000. Wentz got credit for a 75-yard TD pass to Taylor, which makes it virtually impossible for me to cash for serious money tonight.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
AxelWolf
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October 11th, 2021 at 5:38:11 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

I'm reading this thread carefully, because I'm interested in this subject and want to learn.

The people I know who play these kinds of 1:1 fanduels contests seem to be pretty knowledgable and put a fair amount of effort into being knowledgable. And everyone presumably has access to the same internet articles and free 'tips.' So where, in general, does the edge come from? Is it developing some key insight on an undervalued player, or understanding what options an opposition defense will likely shut down, or just hoping for a clueless opponent?
link to original post

I just saw something (perhap John Oliver). They had some stats that suggested a significant lion share of the money won on those sites are won by a very small percentage of the same people.

That's scary and suggests to me you have to be very very good.

This would be a good research project and artical for Mission to tackle.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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October 11th, 2021 at 5:40:55 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

I'm reading this thread carefully, because I'm interested in this subject and want to learn.

The people I know who play these kinds of 1:1 fanduels contests seem to be pretty knowledgable and put a fair amount of effort into being knowledgable. And everyone presumably has access to the same internet articles and free 'tips.' So where, in general, does the edge come from? Is it developing some key insight on an undervalued player, or understanding what options an opposition defense will likely shut down, or just hoping for a clueless opponent?
link to original post

I just saw something (perhap John Oliver). They had some stats that suggested a significant lion share of the money won on those sites are won by a very small percentage of the same people.

That's scary and suggests to me you have to be very very good.
I don't really don't know enough about it, I just find it interesting.
This would be a good research project and artical for Mission to tackle.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
mwalz9
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October 11th, 2021 at 5:56:08 PM permalink
I believe that and thats why I stay in the "EXPERIENCED PLAYERS EXCLUDED" head to heads.
redietz
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October 11th, 2021 at 6:03:10 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: gordonm888

I'm reading this thread carefully, because I'm interested in this subject and want to learn.

The people I know who play these kinds of 1:1 fanduels contests seem to be pretty knowledgable and put a fair amount of effort into being knowledgable. And everyone presumably has access to the same internet articles and free 'tips.' So where, in general, does the edge come from? Is it developing some key insight on an undervalued player, or understanding what options an opposition defense will likely shut down, or just hoping for a clueless opponent?
link to original post

I just saw something (perhap John Oliver). They had some stats that suggested a significant lion share of the money won on those sites are won by a very small percentage of the same people.

That's scary and suggests to me you have to be very very good.
I don't really don't know enough about it, I just find it interesting.
This would be a good research project and artical for Mission to tackle.
link to original post




The research has already been done. Axel, sometimes you should take the time to actually read some of the posts. My blog entry summarizes it and mentions the expose authors, then you can go directly to the newspaper articles yourself and dig up the ratios of who won what.

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot.com/2021/07/when-fantasy-goes-bad.html
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
AxelWolf
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October 11th, 2021 at 6:24:39 PM permalink
Quote: redietz

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: gordonm888

I'm reading this thread carefully, because I'm interested in this subject and want to learn.

The people I know who play these kinds of 1:1 fanduels contests seem to be pretty knowledgable and put a fair amount of effort into being knowledgable. And everyone presumably has access to the same internet articles and free 'tips.' So where, in general, does the edge come from? Is it developing some key insight on an undervalued player, or understanding what options an opposition defense will likely shut down, or just hoping for a clueless opponent?
link to original post

I just saw something (perhap John Oliver). They had some stats that suggested a significant lion share of the money won on those sites are won by a very small percentage of the same people.

That's scary and suggests to me you have to be very very good.
I don't really don't know enough about it, I just find it interesting.
This would be a good research project and artical for Mission to tackle.
link to original post




The research has already been done. Axel, sometimes you should take the time to actually read some of the posts. My blog entry summarizes it and mentions the expose authors, then you can go directly to the newspaper articles yourself and dig up the ratios of who won what.

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot.com/2021/07/when-fantasy-goes-bad.html
link to original post

There are lots of things I should do/should be doing , however I try my best to only do things I enjoy doing. That sounds like a lot of homework for something I'm only mildy interested in. I'm fairly certain I can't make money doing it so I'm not out to spend much time researching it. I will check out what you wrote about it next time I'm at an airport or some place where I have boring time to kill.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
mwalz9
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October 11th, 2021 at 6:41:28 PM permalink
I just read it, redietz.

I also followed the rabbit hole to the articles and YouTube. Interesting.

Again, why I stay under the "Experienced Players Excluded" tab.
mwalz9
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October 11th, 2021 at 7:54:03 PM permalink
Of course Taylor has game of his life and Im nkt going to cash.

:0(
mwalz9
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October 11th, 2021 at 8:18:15 PM permalink
Howd you do, redietz?

Your lineup had to be solid.
redietz
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October 11th, 2021 at 8:22:59 PM permalink
Well, I'm cashing as of the end of regulation. LOL.

Actually, the best thing I did was play the MNF/TNF small full roster contest. So I have Jackson and the TE and Taylor. I'm going to be easily cashing in that heading into the Thursday game.

God, I cannot stand the NFL officiating this weekend. It has been horrific.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
redietz
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October 11th, 2021 at 8:35:22 PM permalink
You know, I'd like to think I made a genius move using Taylor, but the only reason I took him is because the rules require you have one player from each team. and I did not want Wentz.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
mwalz9
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October 12th, 2021 at 11:34:09 AM permalink
I played a $10 EXPERIENCED PLAYERS EXCLUDED 50/50 for the Braves/Brewers game today. Game starts at 5pm est.

The way this works is 20 players. $10 each. Top 10 players get $9 profit for $19 total. FanDuel keeps $10.

My lineup:

A. RILEY MVP X2 POINTS
C. YELICH STAR X1.5 PTS
A. GARCIA
J. SOLER
A. DUVALL

We shall see...
mwalz9
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October 13th, 2021 at 9:23:03 AM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

I played a $10 EXPERIENCED PLAYERS EXCLUDED 50/50 for the Braves/Brewers game today. Game starts at 5pm est.

The way this works is 20 players. $10 each. Top 10 players get $9 profit for $19 total. FanDuel keeps $10.

My lineup:

A. RILEY MVP X2 POINTS
C. YELICH STAR X1.5 PTS
A. GARCIA
J. SOLER
A. DUVALL

We shall see...
link to original post



Soler was a scratch when lineup cards were released. So I replaced him with Urias. I was cashing until Freddie Freeman hit his HR to won the game. Finished 12th! UGH!

Tonight I'm playing in a $3 entry hockey game. EXPREIENCED PLAYERS EXCLUDED. 185 ENTRIES. Gotta be at least 50th to cash at $6. $75 for 1st place. $500 in total prizes. This is the most research Ive done since I won a $5,000 golf tournament for a $9 entry fee a few years ago. I have a lot of middle level players with high potential. This is the most shark-ish Ive felt since that golf tournament.
gordonm888
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October 13th, 2021 at 10:11:13 AM permalink
How do they define "experienced players"?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
mwalz9
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October 13th, 2021 at 10:18:48 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

How do they define "experienced players"?
link to original post



Experienced player requirements:
More than 500 total contests entered, OR
$2,500 won across 6 or more contests


Highly Experienced player requirements:
More than 1,000 total contests entered, OR
$1,000+ won in 4 or more contests

These contest limit the sharks.
mwalz9
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October 13th, 2021 at 9:56:06 PM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

Tonight I'm playing in a $3 entry hockey game. EXPREIENCED PLAYERS EXCLUDED. 185 ENTRIES. Gotta be at least 50th to cash at $6. $75 for 1st place. $500 in total prizes. This is the most research Ive done since I won a $5,000 golf tournament for a $9 entry fee a few years ago. I have a lot of middle level players with high potential. This is the most shark-ish Ive felt since that golf tournament.
link to original post



Good night! I cashed on my hockey contest finishing 41st out of 185 entries.

I also had $190 on Edmonton at -190 and they won in a shootout.

I'll take it.
redietz
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October 14th, 2021 at 2:15:41 PM permalink
Excellent job. I wouldn't know who to take in hockey if I studied for a decade.

Mwalz, did you do anything single-game with the Bucs/Eagles? I have not yet. Looks hard to put together a squad. You have to use both QBs, I think, so salary cap is tight.

I have a small MNF/TNF full-roster team that is in roughly 1000th out of 6700 heading into tonight. I have the three Bucs receivers (Godwin, Evans, and Brown) and the TB defense. If that doesn't cash, I will be mightily disappointed.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
mwalz9
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October 14th, 2021 at 6:48:07 PM permalink
Quote: redietz

Excellent job. I wouldn't know who to take in hockey if I studied for a decade.

Mwalz, did you do anything single-game with the Bucs/Eagles? I have not yet. Looks hard to put together a squad. You have to use both QBs, I think, so salary cap is tight.

I have a small MNF/TNF full-roster team that is in roughly 1000th out of 6700 heading into tonight. I have the three Bucs receivers (Godwin, Evans, and Brown) and the TB defense. If that doesn't cash, I will be mightily disappointed.
link to original post



I did. I have Brady, Hurts, Ertz, AB and Bernard.

Im currently cashing at halftime, and Bernard has 0. Fournette was the play so far. Hopefully I hold on.
redietz
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October 14th, 2021 at 8:23:52 PM permalink
I am mightily disappointed. I missed by eight points, which is actually quite a lot, considering who I had. I finished 2600 out of 6700, so not that close to cashing at all.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
mwalz9
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Joined: Feb 7, 2012
October 14th, 2021 at 8:31:29 PM permalink
Quote: redietz

I am mightily disappointed. I missed by eight points, which is actually quite a lot, considering who I had. I finished 2600 out of 6700, so not that close to cashing at all.
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I cashed barely. By .08 of a point. I finished 4,798th. 5001st and up got $6. $3 entry. 16,667 entries.

Here's a story from my contest that wouldve made me sick. Leader had Brady as his MVP. 2nd place had Brady as FLEX. Winner gets $4,000. 2nd place gets $1500. On final drive leader is leading second by .15 points. Brady takes the knees, the rushing yards come off. They count 1.5x for 1st place. Him and 2nd end up flip flopping because of the victory formation plays. $2500 swing. Id have been sick!
redietz
redietz
  • Threads: 49
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Joined: Jun 5, 2019
October 14th, 2021 at 8:53:14 PM permalink
That is horrific.

I did not play the single game. I just couldn't figure out what to do.

Congrats on cashing. I thought I had about a 60-70% chance of cashing heading into this game. No such luck.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
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