More Morons, Imbeciles, and Idiots

Of course, I'm using the formal language adopted originally by U.S. doctors. In any event, last night's primetime college football debuts provided a perfect example of what I mention every couple of months -- namely that anyone betting sports parlays is, in 95% or more of all instances, being really stupid.

And once again, I will regale you with the story of the (first) trial of Mike Stockunas, a semi-legendary illegal bookmaker from Schuylkill County, Pennsylvania. When the prosecuting attorney put one of Mike's phone guys on the witness stand, the attorney tried to lay out the nuances of what Stockunas had been doing. The attorney asked Stockunas' assistant, "Could you tell the court what a parlay is?" The assistant answered, "Sure. It's a really stupid bet." That brought some chuckles from the audience and an admonition from the judge.

That was not a digression. It was an affirmation. As were last night's primetime games.

This will be the Cliff Notes version of what I'll blog about shortly.

Basically, college football lines and totals move. They move a lot. These days, it's not uncommon for a third of the games to move a point and a half or more. And it's not uncommon for a handful to move three or more points, sometimes more than that.

Which brings me to the problem with parlays. Parlays must be bet at one location. In brick and mortar joints, they usually must be bet at a single point in time. These elements of parlay betting take away some of the best tools you have for winning, namely shopping 'til you drop for the absolute best lines or best vigorish.

The Ohio State/Minnesota game had lines bouncing between 13 1/2 and 14 most of the week. I do not think I saw a 14 1/2 at any point, but there may indeed have been one, as I was not following the game that closely. The other prime time game, Boise/UCF had a couple of -5's early, then went to 5 1/2, then 6, and peaked at 6 1/2 before moving back down.

Ohio State/Minnesota ended on 14. Boise/UCF ended on 5. The point is (or points are, as a double entendre here), if you had opinions on these games and tried to parlay them, it was highly unlikely that you pulled off the timing and locale to win both. Whereas, if you shopped 'til you dropped over the course of days with straight plays, you got the best of it.

And that is why, as the dude said in court, parlays are "a really stupid bet."

I just thought the unusual opening primetime results last night made a convenient underlining for this spiel. It was probably the best season-opening argument I have ever seen for making the anti-parlay case.

The Ohio St/Minnesota game killed a friends parlay bet by a 1/2 point. He sees it as "they" boinked him. I see it as "dang, you picked 5 out of 6 correctly and the one you missed was by a 1/2 point."

Perception/Reality = money management.

Gotta watch out for the "they" brothers.

Quote: moses

The Ohio St/Minnesota game killed a friends parlay bet by a 1/2 point. He sees it as "they" boinked him. I see it as "dang, you picked 5 out of 6 correctly and the one you missed was by a 1/2 point."

Perception/Reality = money management.

Gotta watch out for the "they" brothers.

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I agree that parlays are dumb bets in most circumstances. I see your friend as someone that picked 5 games correct and only lost one game and came away with $0. If you like teams just bet them straight,

Quote: DRich

Quote: moses

The Ohio St/Minnesota game killed a friends parlay bet by a 1/2 point. He sees it as "they" boinked him. I see it as "dang, you picked 5 out of 6 correctly and the one you missed was by a 1/2 point."

Perception/Reality = money management.

Gotta watch out for the "they" brothers.

link to original post

I agree that parlays are dumb bets in most circumstances. I see your friend as someone that picked 5 games correct and only lost one game and came away with $0. If you like teams just bet them straight,

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I paased another friend on the way out at halftime as I was heading in. He took Minnesota. From my perspective, he was in good shape to be ahead at the half. He's whizzed because a TD couldve put them up 21-10. He was leaving because he knew Ohio St would come roaring back in 2nd half. I bet he was glad to come away with a push.

_________


the OP is similar to the typical nonsense you hear on BJ forums with APs railing against ploppies
if there were no ploppies there would be no APs
would you think casinos are stupid enough to deal BJ with good rules to tables full of nothing but APs?

these "morons" are not morons because they never had a goal to bet with maximum efficiency

if a person doesn't have a goal to do something it's ridiculous to call him names because he hasn't done it

considering gambling as a whole it probably includes around 95% or more of all of those who make bets - which are made simply for entertainment

I gather from the OP's posts that he enjoys literature
his OP is akin to a Professor of English calling him an "imbecile" because he hasn't read the complete works of James Joyce including the unfathomable "Finnegans Wake."

quite a few of these "idiots" are high level professionals in their respective fields who likely earn 10 or times or more what the OP earns in a year

I'm trying to say this without calling the OP a name to stay within the rules of the forum
so I would say the post itself is haughty and arrogant
if I didn't manage to stay within the rules and the ban hammer comes down so be it - I'll try to survive -


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For -110 bets, 2-team parlays at 13:5 are only slightly higher edge and 3-teamers at 6:1 are slightly lower edge, compared to betting separately.

Quote: Ace2

For -110 bets, 2-team parlays at 13:5 are only slightly higher edge and 3-teamers at 6:1 are slightly lower edge, compared to betting separately.

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You're missing the point, Ace. it's not about the odds; it's about the numbers.

I'm all for recreational bettors playing parlays and parlay cards. What I'm not a fan of is people thinking they're doing the proper thing from a money management perspective. Same as 6:5 blackjack. People want to play it, great. But don't pretend to expertise while holding court about playing parlays.

I had mentioned previously, when folks posted pics of parlay tickets here and were discussing payouts as if they were examining the math for tiny edges, that their simply playing parlays was wrong, and if they took a minute to think about it, they'd probably figure out why it was basically, obviously wrong. Sometimes when you squint for small edges, you're missing the forest for the trees. When you're locked into numbers for a particular place and time, as most parlay bettors are, what you're really giving up is the price of buying half points to make your parlay bets that aren't optimal the same as what would be available if you shopped 'til you dropped different places throughout the week. So people doing the analyses of parlay bets weren't really doing the full analysis.

For all the math dudes on this site, I've never read anyone pointing out the obvious problem with doing analyses of parlays and parlay cards without addressing the elephant -- namely that you're not dealing with optimally available numbers. So why sweat an analysis of small edges when you're obviously passing up big edges.

I'm pretty sure Mission gets this. He has half-point sensitivity antennae.

Quote: redietz

Sometimes when you squint for small edges, you're missing the forest for the trees.

Quote: redietz

So why sweat an analysis of small edges when you're obviously passing up big edges.

For the most part, isn't that what sports betting is, small edges? (obviously, opportunities and special things come up that have a super nice edge, but they are few and far between)

One has to have a significant bankroll in order to get off large bets or a crap ton of small bets to really make a decent amount of money. In this day and age, it seems like if you really make good money, you have to have a ton of accounts all loaded up with the money all while hoping they don't peg you as a sharp bettor and cut your account off.

Casino hopping isn't much better, especially if you are solo.

It seems to me that if one really wants to make a nice living at sports it's a full-time job with very little room to do anything else.

I have talked to a few full-time successfully sports bettors who slowly migrated to different types of AP. They basically said they wish they got out of sports sooner since they were squinting for small edges on sports, and missing the forest for the trees.

Quote: redietz

I'm all for recreational bettors playing parlays

say what?
you implied just the opposite in your OP

your use of the words "morons, imbeciles and idiots" is very obvious sensationalism in an attempt to attract attention to yourself
TomG has been posting basically the exact same thing here for years

if you can't attract attention to yourself using more sedate language than the question hangs in the air as to whether or not your posts are really valuable

and also, so a bettor thinks he's real sharp because he found a book offering the Giants - 6.5 when all the others have the Giants at -7 4 hours before game time

so he takes the bait

neither you nor anyone else on this planet can be sure the Giants won't be offered at -6 15 minutes before the game by some book

so in this example the very sharp don't look so very sharp

and this kind of thing happens lots and lots of times


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Reditz is falling for the false cause logical fallacy. It isn’t the parlay that made those college football games bad bets, it was the bad numbers on Minnesota +13.5 or Boise St +5

If Boise St +6.5 was a good number, then it was a good bet whether it was in a parlay or not. If Boise St +5 was not a good number, then it was no good whether it was in a parlay or not. Some for Ohio State -13.5 and -14. If Boise +6.5 and OSU -13.5 were not available to put into the same parlay, it would have been very easy to simply not put those games in the same parlay. The good numbers could have been single game bets. Or they could have in parlays with other good numbers from MLB, WNBA, Saturday college games, NFL week 1, MLS, EPL, golf, NASCAR, etc. Either way would have still been good bets and profitable.

On the six team parlay example: six team parlays are going to have five winners about twice as often as they have all six teams win. All that matters is if they were six good numbers. If each game had a 53% chance of winning, that is slightly more than 2.2% chance of winning. Which means if it paid out 47.41 (like some places do), that is more than a 7% edge. (Someone correct me if that is wrong). Even if we agree it is not realistic, the problem isn’t that it was a parlay bet, the problem is that they were not good bets whether in a parlay or not.

So how about real world examples?

I agree that most good sports betting is small edges, but there are some big edges to be found. Isn’t that the same with most all other stuff people do to earn money from casino games? How often the bigger edges come up and why is a totally different topic. How to best take advantage of it is right on point when talking about parlays. With sports betting, there can come a time when one of the biggest barriers is being able to get money down. And that’s when parlays become very important to maximize value.

The high hold that sportsbooks have on parlays is exactly why they are good. The bets go right through and it usually takes quite a few for them to notice where the money is going. It is much better to have $1,000 in action on a good number, than it is to bet $500 and see it move. That is even true if I have to give up a little value by having it in parlays. Might not matter in the case of the major sports side, total, moneyline. If someone doesn’t understand why this might matter for some bets, I’m perfectly fine with that.

The reduced juice is also cool. I like getting -109 on three team parlays over -110, but don’t really bother too much with it. For years Jerry’s Nugget offered -105 on their three-team parlays. And they were independent with plenty of lines where Pinnacle’s takeback was +105 or higher. Then there was Lucky’s letting people bet MLB runline and total parlays. Those two examples died off five to 10 years ago, but they should show clearly why there are times when parlays can be great. There is other stuff out there right now that comes and goes. Some with small edges that I have no problem talking about (MMA favorite and over; MLB home and under), and others with bigger edges that I won’t.

Can verify that there was a Minnesota +14.5 -112 out there at one time.

Obviously, there are ways to monitor spread variations that give you a heads up. And obviously, part of expertise is having access to books that either (1) are a step slow to line moves of other books or (2) prefer to move lines based on actual action at their book rather than everyone else moving their lines. And it's helpful if you have the depth of experience to look at lines, and although nobody gets them all right, if you can say "that line will move" and be correct 70% of the time, then combine that with monitoring the line moves at all locations 24/7 and you have a chance.

It is work -- 24/7 work. For example, back in the 90's, I stayed at the Convention Center Lodge across the street from the Stardust, and when it closed, at the massive Budget Suites behind the Stardust. One of the reasons for this was that the Stardust did not move numbers until they actually took action on a game that justified the action. So their lines were the last dominos to fall when there were major line moves. Back in the 80's and 90's, unlike today, there were actually some regulations that tried to prevent books from moving their lines willy nilly without actual money bet providing rationale for the number moves.

As to Axel's "small edges" and knowing winning sports bettors who transitioned to AP'ing. To use an apropos sports book phrase, "Yeah, that's the ticket."

I love when people say "winning sports bettor" as opposed to "college football bettor" or "college hoop bettor" or "NBA totals guy." As if there's some formula for winning across various sports.

I posted what I did because nobody on this ostensibly expert forum had posted it. For years. The fact that betting parlays is dumb in 95% of the contexts. The fact that analyzing parlay betting while overlooking that you're dealing with non-optimal lines is horrifically flawed. The fact that treating sports betting odds as if they are crystalline rather than fluid is silly, and that the fluidity of odds is a major, maybe the major, component in the betting process.

Why post what I did? Because I felt like, football season is starting, and those prime time results I mentioned, Ohio State/Minnesota and Boise/UCF, provided the perfect examples of how parlay betting undermines winning, and did for many people who bet those games. I hadn't seen a single mention of these facts on this forum, and I felt rather than clamming up forever, I'd leave some people here with a very useful lesson in gambling that they otherwise might not get. All of the parlay analyzing I've see here has ignored the variable that you are taking non-optimal odds the majority of the time.

It's as if you had people seriously discussing the minutia of counting cards at 6/5 blackjack tables. Analyzing card counting while ignoring the overall context is silly.

Now if you folks don't appreciate the fact that I just gave you very solid advice that heretofore has not appeared on WoV, well, God bless you all.

Quote: redietz

I love when people say "winning sports bettor" as opposed to "college football bettor" or "college hoop bettor" or "NBA totals guy." As if there's some formula for winning across various sports.

I used the term sports bettor on purpose because they are not focusing on one sport or any one method, but they use everything available to gain an advantage. So the "formula"(I didn't use that word, you did) is the same across all sports. Find an edge, and then bet it.

I think when the general public thinks of winning sports bettors they think of just Handicapping, or as I like to call it, Handicrapping. I don't know any successful sports bettors that make their living using pure Handicrapping.

Quote: redietz

It is work -- 24/7 work.

I'll agree with the first part, but the second is just not correct. It is very much possible to earn profits by line shopping or "market checks", or whatever we want to call it in small amounts of time. Just a few hours on Saturday and someone should be able to find one sportsbook that has a total at 67 and another at 69. Or try it on Sunday and one place has first score a TD at -180 and another has the other side at +180. Perfect example from just this morning. I know MLB prop openers are inefficient. I know when they usually go on the board in Las Vegas. Takes me about 15 to 30 minutes to check. Most days I find something ok, some days are great, other days there is nothing. Just this morning, one place had +250 on an alternate runline when the rest of the world had the other side at -230. I could have put it into parlays and had a much better position, but I was still bleary eyed and didn't want to miss the number hunting around for something else. Although I am perfectly fine with only one bet on it, not putting it into parlays limited profits.

Quote: redietz

Because I felt like, football season is starting, and those prime time results I mentioned, Ohio State/Minnesota and Boise/UCF, provided the perfect examples of how parlay betting undermines winning, and did for many people who bet those games.

Again, this is more of a perfect example of a logical fallacy. If someone didn't put those games in a parlay and instead had single game bets on OSU -13.5 or Boise +5, how did they do? They were undermined by betting bad numbers. Which is exactly the same thing as your parlay example. It isn't the parlays that were the problem, it was the bad numbers.

please delete - thanks





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Just curious if any of the winning sports bettors had access to a nickel line -105 ? I knew one who would take phone calls from bookies trying to balance action on a game. If Henry liked that team he bet on it, if not, no thanks. Every winning player was either a bookie himself like Billy Waters ( charged but not convicted) or had access to info no one else had.

Quote: TomG

I'll agree with the first part, but the second is just not correct. It is very much possible to earn profits by line shopping or "market checks", or whatever we want to call it in small amounts of time. Just a few hours on Saturday and someone should be able to find one sportsbook that has a total at 67 and another at 69. Or try it on Sunday and one place has first score a TD at -180 and another has the other side at +180. Perfect example from just this morning. I know MLB prop openers are inefficient. I know when they usually go on the board in Las Vegas. Takes me about 15 to 30 minutes to check. Most days I find something ok, some days are great, other days there is nothing. Just this morning, one place had +250 on an alternate runline when the rest of the world had the other side at -230. I could have put it into parlays and had a much better position, but I was still bleary eyed and didn't want to miss the number hunting around for something else. Although I am perfectly fine with only one bet on it, not putting it into parlays limited profits.



Again, this is more of a perfect example of a logical fallacy. If someone didn't put those games in a parlay and instead had single game bets on OSU -13.5 or Boise +5, how did they do? They were undermined by betting bad numbers. Which is exactly the same thing as your parlay example. It isn't the parlays that were the problem, it was the bad numbers.

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You're missing the point. If you commit to betting parlays, if that's what you do, you're committed to getting non-optimal numbers. That's the core problem. If you walk into a shop and yo bet parlays, you commit to the numbers at that shop for all games in the parlay. Now what you say is correct in that if you're committed to betting when you put two feet in a sports book regardless of number, that's a separate problem.

If you think checking numbers for a couple hours on Saturday should yield profits, God bless you. This is part of the mythology that tries to frame sports betting as some easily beatable enterprise.

I knew the guy who initiated arbitrage with offshores back before most people had internet. His name was Larry Fletcher, aka "Southern Comfort," and he used programs that alerted and alarmed when arbitrage opportunities became available any time day or night. He was doing this right around the time Windows first came out, so it had to be 1986 or thereabouts. He was precise, and he was on it literally every day. He's the only sports gambler I believe actually won every year he gambled. I know I certainly do not.

There's still 52 minutes for you to commit to playing the WoV Picks Game, or you can join in Week 2.

redietz,

Thank you for your insightful post on parlays. I don’t know why you won’t similarly recognize the good points made by TomG. Walking into a sportsbook to bet parlays is bad because it’s low probability this particular sportsbook will have three good numbers. Makes sense. But walking into a sportsbook to bet anything, without shopping lines, seems equally bad.

In my experience, Tom is dead on with respect to straight bets moving numbers well before a parlay would. And that can be useful.

Also no one has mentioned “open parlays.” See a good line, bet it. Also bet it an an “open parlay.” Many sites will let the open legs stay open for a long enough time that you can add other good numbers when you find them. Sure, you COULD just bet a higher amount of money on straight bets on the good numbers. But that’s not always possible for various reasons (betting limits on site, etc.).

Quote: redietz

You're missing the point. If you commit to betting parlays, if that's what you do, you're committed to getting non-optimal numbers. That's the core problem. If you walk into a shop and yo bet parlays, you commit to the numbers at that shop for all games in the parlay. Now what you say is correct in that if you're committed to betting when you put two feet in a sports book regardless of number, that's a separate problem.

Of course everyone missed that point, because that point was kept hidden. It is also a very weird point. Being committed to making a raise in poker no matter what the cards are is also a problem. Being committed to making a parlay bet no matter what the numbers are is definitely a problem. That doesn't mean those bets are always stupid bets, it depends entirely on what the conditions are.

Quote: redietz

If you think checking numbers for a couple hours on Saturday should yield profits, God bless you. This is part of the mythology that tries to frame sports betting as some easily beatable enterprise.

You really think betting +150 when the rest of the world has the other side at -140 isn't going to be profitable? And you think finding something like that really requires either around the clock work, or Devine blessings?

Quote: redietz

I knew the guy who initiated arbitrage with offshores back before most people had internet. His name was Larry Fletcher, aka "Southern Comfort," and he used programs that alerted and alarmed when arbitrage opportunities became available any time day or night. He was doing this right around the time Windows first came out, so it had to be 1986 or thereabouts. He was precise, and he was on it literally every day. He's the only sports gambler I believe actually won every year he gambled. I know I certainly do not.

There are definitely other guys still doing similar things 35 years later.

Quote: Mission146

There's still 52 minutes for you to commit to playing the WoV Picks Game, or you can join in Week 2.

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Touché

Quote: unJon

redietz,

Thank you for your insightful post on parlays. I don’t know why you won’t similarly recognize the good points made by TomG. Walking into a sportsbook to bet parlays is bad because it’s low probability this particular sportsbook will have three good numbers. Makes sense. But walking into a sportsbook to bet anything, without shopping lines, seems equally bad.

In my experience, Tom is dead on with respect to straight bets moving numbers well before a parlay would. And that can be useful.

Also no one has mentioned “open parlays.” See a good line, bet it. Also bet it an an “open parlay.” Many sites will let the open legs stay open for a long enough time that you can add other good numbers when you find them. Sure, you COULD just bet a higher amount of money on straight bets on the good numbers. But that’s not always possible for various reasons (betting limits on site, etc.).

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Actually, this is why I made the reference in the opening post to "most brick-and-mortar" casinos. I was making a distinction between brick-and-mortar and offshore, which are more amenable to having the possibility of "open parlays." Unless you have a special relationship with brick-and-mortar (highly unlikely), you are pinned to a place and time. Offshore, some shops allow open parlays and open teasers.

Previously, one could save open parlays and open teasers in perpetuity at some offshore shops. That has scaled back significantly, such that some that were previously "open in perpetuity" are now putting Monday night limits or 30-day limits on open parlays and teasers. I have one place that still allows open-ness for years if one wants. But two others have put expirations on them.

Note to TomG -- if you think I don't understand arbitrage and middles and am arguing against them, you are on serious drugs. But your "I found a +150 and a -140 simultaneously" happens once in a blue moon these days, and usually on some low-limit prop where you can get $500 to $1000 down, so you're not really making much of anything. About five years ago, I won the "Race to the Super Bowl" contest at an offshore and picked up 25K in Super Bowl wagers as a result. Being determined to maximize the bets, I went to Las Vegas so as to utilize all available numbers while also shopping offshore and set up the 25K in wagers on trying to middle props or take advantage of the occasional fleeting prop arbitrage.

I almost went friggin' blind before it was over, doing this for days before the SB. There were a couple of arbitrage bets, but we're talking 1K limits on most. I middled one bet, the Over/Under for a punter's longest punt. I kid you not. The limit on that was $500.

To actually make any real money with arbitrage in 2021, you'd need 50K or more in each offshore you use and six digits in carrying around cash. And the opportunities are fleeting. If you don't time everything precisely so you can do it on a moment's notice, you're wasting your time and money. And can you imagine trying to get even 10K down on a prop or halftime either offshore or brick-and-mortar on a moment's notice, with the clock on your arbitrage ticking?

Not gonna happen. The books will quicksand you (slow you down) just for fun.

Now, having said all that, am I still the guy who will bet it if he happens to see a simultaneous arbitrage with a $500 limit for some Monday night prop? Yes I am. I do it on the principle of taking down the lunch money and demonstrating I can do it. I have no illusions; I'm making lunch money.

ReDietz: My cousin loves to bet college football. He does pretty good. My understanding is he reads top picks from a few handicappers in Vegas. How would he follow your picks or sign up?

REDietz: what was your take on the under for the Giants game yesterday?

On the win (3.5) for Green Bay?

The under was 41.5 and the score ended at 41, so it was a winner. Green Bay obviously lost.

Did you have picks posted in advance for either of these wagers?

Why don't you guys play the Picks Game?

MDawg, the amount of money involved is obviously trivial for you, based on your reports. Less money will change hands at the end of the game than you have reported betting on individual hands, but it's fun and you certainly post frequently enough that I don't think you would forget to make picks.

If you were to be Suspended, for any reason, I would PM you an E-Mail address and your Picks would still count. You can hop in for Week 2, but Week 1 would be your Skip Week.

Quote: Mission146

Why don't you guys play the Picks Game?

My guess is fear of looking like a “commoner”.

Much respect to those who talk the talk and walk the walk….good or bad results.

No so much just talk the talk.

As I've stated, "I know nothing" about sports betting. All I could do is talk to family members or friends who are into it (and not many of my family or friends are into it at all), and echo their picks, and what fun would that be?

I had a friend who used to send me horse race picks every few days in Vegas and somehow this guy knew what was up and I'd cash out at least a grand ahead every time he made the picks for me (betting small), but he's disappeared. I had only some idea what the bets even meant, and they were generally complicated boxed this or that, but the guy knew what he was doing, somehow.

Quote: TDVegas

My guess is fear of looking like a “commoner”.

Much respect to those who talk the talk and walk the walk….good or bad results.

No so much just talk the talk.

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It would be nice if people didn't worry so much about that sort of thing.

Even the best sports bettors have the occasional terrible season, I would think. At least some of them. This isn't even a sports betting based website, we just have a sub-forum for it.

I'll tell you what I think is the most laughable, if anything at all: turning a nose up at the EV of the game! My guaranteed contribution$ to the game, as of right now, are more than the sum of the Entry Fees. People can have a little fun and do so currently at 200%+ EV...all players assumed equal for the purposes of the statement.

Quote: MDawg

As I've stated, "I know nothing" about sports betting. All I could do is talk to family members who are into it, and echo their picks, and what fun would that be?

I had a friend who used to send me horse race picks every few days in Vegas and somehow this guy knew what was up and I'd cash out at least a grand ahead every time he made the picks for me (betting small), but he's disappeared.

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It wouldn't be fun, which is why you should just make your own Picks. Even though some players have demonstrated that they are consistently strong in this contest (I'm consistently slightly above average, myself, but not good) the rules are such that someone just picking randomly has a shot.

Besides that, anyone can play the Line Movements game, which has proven to be a solid strategy. I usually just straight up make the Picks I like, but I do have a little formula that I do if I can't come up with five picks in a given week.

Quote: TDVegas

My guess is fear of looking like a “commoner”.

Much respect to those who talk the talk and walk the walk….good or bad results.

No so much just talk the talk.

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The locker room version is can't walk and chew gum at the same time. Step, step. stop. chew. repeat.😎

Quote: Mission146

Quote: TDVegas

My guess is fear of looking like a “commoner”.

Much respect to those who talk the talk and walk the walk….good or bad results.

No so much just talk the talk.

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It would be nice if people didn't worry so much about that sort of thing.
.

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So lemme get this straight. You are worried about why people worry so much? 😉 🤔Just kidding Miss.146

Quote: moses

Quote: Mission146

Quote: TDVegas

My guess is fear of looking like a “commoner”.

Much respect to those who talk the talk and walk the walk….good or bad results.

No so much just talk the talk.

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It would be nice if people didn't worry so much about that sort of thing.
.

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So lemme get this straight. You are worried about why people worry so much? 😉 🤔Just kidding Miss.146

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Yeah, and now you have me worried about why I would worry about other people worrying so much, which is even more worrisome.

Wow. Just reading that sentence is an existential nightmare. Sometimes being a bit Nihilistic is a positive, because it means that I'm not too worried about it.

Now, you got me worrying about why I wonder so much.🤔😄

Quote: moses

Now, you got me worrying about why I wonder so much.🤔😄

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I can't help but wonder why you worry so much, but I'd better wander into a different thread, or we won't have to wonder why we got Suspended!

Quote: Mission146

Quote: moses

Now, you got me worrying about why I wonder so much.🤔😄

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I can't help but wonder why you worry so much, but I'd better wander into a different thread, or we won't have to wonder why we got Suspended!

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😅😅

Quote: Mission146

Quote: TDVegas

My guess is fear of looking like a “commoner”.

Much respect to those who talk the talk and walk the walk….good or bad results.

No so much just talk the talk.

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It would be nice if people didn't worry so much about that sort of thing.

Even the best sports bettors have the occasional terrible season, I would think. At least some of them. This isn't even a sports betting based website, we just have a sub-forum for it.

I'll tell you what I think is the most laughable, if anything at all: turning a nose up at the EV of the game! My guaranteed contribution$ to the game, as of right now, are more than the sum of the Entry Fees. People can have a little fun and do so currently at 200%+ EV...all players assumed equal for the purposes of the statement.

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They can be fun little contests. No question. I’ve seen people have good seasons. To do so consistently is another subject. I keep forgetting…what’s the break even? 52.25%…?

I’ve seen seasons of 55% to 58% which I would surmise is decent profit. To do this year in year out is why I think there are only a magical few who can make regular bank. ie, Billy Walters.

I also believe the touts business is a farce.

Good luck. Nice of you to front money.

Thanks! It's well worth it. Everyone seems to have a good time.

Quote: Mission146

Wow. Just reading that sentence is an existential nightmare. Sometimes being a bit Nihilistic is a positive, because it means that I'm not too worried about it.

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Have you ever worried about being a nihillist?

One of the best Monday night NFL games….ever.

Quote: TDVegas

My guess is fear of looking like a “commoner”.

Much respect to those who talk the talk and walk the walk….good or bad results.

No so much just talk the talk.

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Exactly what I was thinking. No one claiming to be a pro sport better is going to put their reputation on the line with a chance of losing to guys like Djatc and Mike who use a simple formula to win. That would be crazy especially if you have investors. clients etc. You can't have people thinking all this fancy-dancy Analytics and years of studying, brute force accomplishments and vast football knowledge isn't the bee's knees.

Quote: redietz

Note to TomG -- if you think I don't understand arbitrage and middles and am arguing against them, you are on serious drugs.

I never made any comment on making arbitrage betting. If I find +150 when the whole world is painted -140, I'm only betting the -140 if I can get more than one max bet down first. And that usually doesn't happen, and I it probably isn't the right thing to do.

It is fascinating that you are so quick to jump to the ways other people bet and how there must always be something wrong with it.

First it was parlays are bad because it is not always the best number. Now it is that betting only the very best numbers can't be worth much because of how challenging it might be and how many barriers there are. It starts to come across as if you just think there is no such thing as making good bets. Which is just weird considering how you have talked so much about all the good bets you have done in the past.

I do agree that finding profitable numbers is rare. But how rare exactly? 1-in-100? 1-in-1000? Just checking one random MLB game on FanDuel, there looks to be around 100 or so different two-way lines, and dozens more index props or three-way lines. If it is 1-in-100, that means there should be about one good bet per game. If it is 1-in-1,000, that means one good baseball bet per day, just at FD. NLF and NBA have even more numbers. College sports have a lot more games. Now do the same at DraftKings, Circa, WH, MGM, Stations, or whatever other books in whatever state we want. If you don't know the market well enough to know what numbers to check and what to skip so that you can't find a good numbers in 15 minutes and multiple good numbers in 60 minutes, that's on you. Not everyone has that limitation.

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I generally don't like season long contests, because there is a good chance I'll just want to put my phone away and check out and I'll end up with zeros at least once.

Again, you're mislabeling what I said. My raison d'etre is getting the best number as often as possible.

What you originally said was that there are +150/-140 opportunities if you shop a couple of hours on Saturday. I'm telling you that there almost none you can practicably bet in real time. That's a myth.

I have no idea what you mean in the above statement by "profitable numbers." You mean "slow numbers?" Prior to Covid, slow numbers had little if any correlation with profitable numbers outside of college sports.

As far as limitations and actual public results go, as opposed to the armchair expert stuff, I have 30 years of two games a week during 30 football seasons as a matter of public record during the Wise Guys Contest. If anyone wants to ascertain if I know what I'm doing, I suggest you dial up Playbook, the contest sponsors, and ask "Does Bob Dietz know what he's doing?"

Back in the 80's and 90's, my handicapping was a matter of public record in the McCusker Report, an annual publication out of Las Vegas. And my usual name-dropping -- I did work with Billy Walters 20 years ago. I suspect one doesn't get recruited to work with Billy Walters if one has severe "limitations."

Does this silly pissing contest have an endpoint? You both are clearly very good at what you do and have very different approaches.
There is more than one way to skin a cat.

Quote: redietz

What you originally said was that there are +150/-140 opportunities if you shop a couple of hours on Saturday. I'm telling you that there almost none you can practicably bet in real time. That's a myth.

I know exactly what you are telling me and I know it is wrong. I'll send you some screen shots from just the past few days, which are midweek days, without any basketball (and only one good one on the MNF game).

Obviously don't care to make it public, and obviously only going to be stuff I would never care about losing. It may small limits and not huge volume. But at 5% edge or better, it can definitely be $50 to $100 per day on the slow days, with plenty of days where the value is a lot more. So at worst it's like $18 to $36k per year just on those type of bets. Then do a lot more bets with 1% edges. Then lots of other stuff, too (like the different ways to find value on parlays).

Great video showing potential edge of 10 - 20% on certain types of parlays, specifically alternate lines at FanDuel: https://youtu.be/5HCJphBe_mQ

A great example of how being dismissive of certain types of bets, runs the risk of dismissing profit.

While this system is long gone, it is only the tip of the iceberg, with lots of other great opportunities available for anyone willing to look around. College football is over, but NFL is still going on and basketball is just starting. Surpassed $10,000 in basketball parlays yesterday, now at 10677.1 total bet with results at +318.56. Obviously way too small of a sample size to be conclusive (a little over 100 bets), but the result are beating the hold by about 13% and matching up with my estimates, which is definitely worthwhile data.