2021 WoV Picks Game Discussion Thread

For the past few contests, I seem to remember that our contestants' picks -as a group - had a somewhat low winning percentage in either Week#1 or Week#2. Week#1 has far more unknowns on which to base picks, but Week#2 is also treacherous because of the tendency to overvalue the teams that won in Week#1.

Let the games begin!

The more unknowns the easier to spot the human error in the lines. And week two has a false factor as winners think they are invincible. I may wind up with my head handed to me but never liked after the fact know-it-alls. I care nothing about talent or lack of same . Just human errors in the posted lines.

Probably going to post them up around 16:00 EST, for whoever wants to be the first to get them in.

Technically, second. Due to unavailability, one player made picks without knowing what the lines will be when they are posted.

Quote: Mission146

Probably going to post them up around 16:00 EST, for whoever wants to be the first to get them in.

Technically, second. Due to unavailability, one player made picks without knowing what the lines will be when they are posted.

link to original post

I am glad you are allowing that. I thought in one of the rules you stated that to be an acceptable pick it had to have the team AND the spread. This way if you are unavailable th-su you can get legal picks in.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: Mission146

Probably going to post them up around 16:00 EST, for whoever wants to be the first to get them in.

Technically, second. Due to unavailability, one player made picks without knowing what the lines will be when they are posted.

link to original post

I am glad you are allowing that. I thought in one of the rules you stated that to be an acceptable pick it had to have the team AND the spread. This way if you are unavailable th-su you can get legal picks in.

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True, but they would just send me the teams in a scenario such as this and I add whatever the spread happens to be to the Picks. Think of it as they are kind of disadvantaging themselves by partially making Picks in the dark, or at least, Picks with a little bit of time for possible variables that they would have otherwise known about.

Also, these sorts of Picks will have to be made one week at a time (if done more than once) in a reasonable timeframe. Nobody can send multiple weeks in advance.

Quote: miplet

Below is a copy and paste and slightly edited of a previous post about the picks programs on my website:

You can get the current lines in the same format that Mission148 uses by going to here. Copy all the text (ctr-a, ctr-c in windows). Then go to here, and paste (ctr-p) all the text in the box and click submit. If you did this now, you would get:

Packers (-7) @ Bears (+7) O/U 49
Chiefs (+1) @ Texans (-1) O/U 41
Browns (+3.5) @ Jets (-3.5) O/U 39.5
Colts (-2.5) @ Bills (+2.5) O/U 45
Dolphins (-3.5) @ Redskins (+3.5) O/U 43.5
Panthers (-3) @ Jaguars (+3) O/U 41
Seahawks (-4) @ Rams (+4) O/U 40.5
Saints (+2.5) @ Cardinals (-2.5) O/U 48.5
Lions (+3) @ Chargers (-3) O/U 46
Titans (+3) @ Buccaneers (-3) O/U 41
Bengals (-3) @ Raiders (+3) O/U 43
Ravens (+4.5) @ Broncos (-4.5) O/U 48
Giants (+6) @ Cowboys (-6) O/U 51.5
Eagles (-3) @ Falcons (+3) O/U 55
Vikings (-2.5) @ 49ers (+2.5) O/U 41.5

You will have to manually remove games we don't use eg Thursday or next weeks game.
To compare the current lines to the WoV lines, just click on the compare lines button. Make sure the WoV lines is updated as it might be the previous week. If you did this now you would get:

Jets -3 (-3.5)
Jaguars UNDER 41.5 (41)
Cardinals OVER 48 (48.5)
Broncos UNDER 48.5 (48)

The number in parenthesis is the current line.
You can get random picks here. Just check it is for the current week.
Let me know of any errors ,questions, comments, or suggestions.

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With a huge thank you to Miplet who, like EdCollins, has made this game SO much easier to run:

GREETINGS!

The Week 1 Lines are as follows:

Steelers (+6.5) @ Bills (-6.5) O/U 48.5
Jets (+4) @ Panthers (-4) O/U 44
Jaguars (-3) @ Texans (+3) O/U 45
Cardinals (+3) @ Titans (-3) O/U 52
Chargers (+1) @ Redskins (-1) O/U 44.5
Eagles (+3.5) @ Falcons (-3.5) O/U 48
Seahawks (-3) @ Colts (+3) O/U 49.5
Vikings (-3) @ Bengals (+3) O/U 47.5
49ers (-7.5) @ Lions (+7.5) O/U 45.5
Browns (+5.5) @ Chiefs (-5.5) O/U 54
Dolphins (+3) @ Patriots (-3) O/U 43.5
Broncos (-3) @ Giants (+3) O/U 41.5
Bears (+7.5) @ Rams (-7.5) O/U 47
Packers (-4) @ Saints (+4) O/U 50
Ravens (-4.5) @ Raiders (+4.5) O/U 50.5

As a reminder, every player MUST make five unique picks against the spread, the Over/Under, or any combination totaling exactly five Picks.

An optional, "Confidence Pick," may be made which will count as either two wins, or two losses, unless it pushes. While the Confidence Pick itself is optional, you MUST make a Confidence Pick in order to qualify for the, "Perfection Bonus," for any given week.

There are no applicable, "Early Games," this week, so ALL Picks are due at, or before, 10:00 EST on Sunday, September 12th.

It's good to be back!

Week 1 Perfection Bonus: $10 (Will be split in the event of multiple winners and rounded up to the nearest dollar, if needed)

Greetings!

PM's have been sent to the round of people who met the first invitation criteria. (Played in 2019 or expressed interest in this thread)

A reminder PM will also be sent on Saturday. I have a new way of doing reminders that is much faster, but it means that everyone is going to end up getting one. If you receive a Reminder PM, please do not take it to mean that I did not get your Picks if you have already made them.

Typically, there will not be a PM that goes out on Thursdays. I only did that because this is Week 1.

Mission has the Chargers playing a team that is not in the NFL. I am assuming he meant the Washington Football Team.

Quote: SOOPOO

Mission has the Chargers playing a team that is not in the NFL. I am assuming he meant the Washington Football Team.

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"Football Team," or, "Redskins," will both be acceptable for team nickname. My guess is that Miplet's program read, "Washington," and the change has not been made for the team nickname, as yet. I imagine EdCollins will also have to add it to his program to recognize, "Football Team," as being the Redskins.

One other thing: I haven't heard from BBB, so would anyone like to volunteer to receive my Picks every week?

You'll have to have the PMs sit in your Inbox until the end of the season, so keep that in mind.

The reason that I must PM my Picks to someone is that the timestamp from when I sent the PM will prove that I made my Picks prior to looking at Picks that anyone else made, as I can provide a screenshot with the timestamp of when I opened the Picks of others. I don't think there would ever be an issue, even if I won, but this method of me PM'ing my Picks to someone guarantees the integrity of the game.

Quote: Mission146

Quote: SOOPOO

Mission has the Chargers playing a team that is not in the NFL. I am assuming he meant the Washington Football Team.

link to original post

"Football Team," or, "Redskins," will both be acceptable for team nickname. My guess is that Miplet's program read, "Washington," and the change has not been made for the team nickname, as yet. I imagine EdCollins will also have to add it to his program to recognize, "Football Team," as being the Redskins.

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I'll update it to "Football Team" shortly. Edited to add: I need to check that adding a space in the nick name doesn't mess things up first.

Quote: Mission146

One other thing: I haven't heard from BBB, so would anyone like to volunteer to receive my Picks every week?

You'll have to have the PMs sit in your Inbox until the end of the season, so keep that in mind.

The reason that I must PM my Picks to someone is that the timestamp from when I sent the PM will prove that I made my Picks prior to looking at Picks that anyone else made, as I can provide a screenshot with the timestamp of when I opened the Picks of others. I don't think there would ever be an issue, even if I won, but this method of me PM'ing my Picks to someone guarantees the integrity of the game.

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I’m happy to receive your PM’d picks.

Quote: unJon

Quote: Mission146

One other thing: I haven't heard from BBB, so would anyone like to volunteer to receive my Picks every week?

You'll have to have the PMs sit in your Inbox until the end of the season, so keep that in mind.

The reason that I must PM my Picks to someone is that the timestamp from when I sent the PM will prove that I made my Picks prior to looking at Picks that anyone else made, as I can provide a screenshot with the timestamp of when I opened the Picks of others. I don't think there would ever be an issue, even if I won, but this method of me PM'ing my Picks to someone guarantees the integrity of the game.

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I’m happy to receive your PM’d picks.

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You have been designated! Thank you very much! They'll usually be at some point on Saturday...generally pretty close to when I do the reminder PMs.

Walk ye not, false prophet, into the house of your Lord and attempt ye not, to spitteth in his face…or ye shalt be smote thus.

Dallas: 29 @ Tampa Bay: 31

Thanks M146, my dead money is in.

LOL You're welcome!

Greetings!

The Reminder PM's are just now about to go out. It looks like we might not end up with as many players as 2019, unless people are just waiting around to try to play line movement. I sort of expected there would be a drop off with taking a year off, but I really didn't feel like dealing with all of the possible contingencies that could have theoretically come with the 2020 NFL Season.

Of course, what I feared didn't come to fruition as, I think, only a few games ended up being postponed at all.

Anyway, if the Picks continue to come in at the current rate, then my guaranteed contributions to this game are actually going to eclipse the total in Entry Fees...so there's excellent value to be had, as of right now, if you are reading this.

Greetings!

The Week 1 Picks are as follows:

Mission146:
Steelers +6.5---CONFIDENCE
Texans +3
Chiefs -5.5
Dolphins +3
Ravens -4.5

PlayYourCardsRight:
Broncos OVER 41.5
Panthers -4 CONFIDENCE
Texans +3
Colts +3
Raiders +4.5

EdCollins:
Texans +3 (Confidence)
Football Team -1
Seahawks -3
Broncos -3
Patriots -3

Wizard:
Jaguars (-3)
Cardinals (+3)
Eagles (+3.5) confidence
Saints (+4)
Raiders (+4.5)

RideTheEdge:
Bears +7.5
Colts +3
Colts UNDER 49.5
49ers OVER 45.5
49ers -7.5-Confidence

FourFiveFace:
Redskins -1
Eagles +3.5
49ers -7.5
Chiefs -5.5
Rams -7.5-Confidence

scolist:
Panthers -4
Bengals +3
49ers -7.5
Broncos -3
Packers -4

GenWyzgy:
Chargers Over 44.5
Bengals +3
Eagles Over 48-Confidence
Browns Over 54
Packers -4

Sparty10k:
Steelers+6.5
Football team-1-confidence
Seahawks-3
49ers-7.5
Broncos-3

Gordonm888
Redskins -1
49ers -7.5
Chiefs -5.5 Confidence
Broncos -3
Packers -4

unJon:
Lions OVER 45.5-confidence
Eagles UNDER 48
Vikings OVER 47.5
Seahawks UNDER 49.5
Chargers +1

Joeman:
Packers -4-confidence
Bengals +3
Ravens under 50.5
Jaguars -3
Bills -6.5

mwalz9:
Cardinals +3
Dolphins +3
49ers -7.5
Packers -4
Bills -6.5-Confidence

jml24:
Bills -6.5
Eagles +3.5
Lions +7.5
Bears +7.5
Saints +4

AZDuffman:
Steelers OVER 48.5---Confidence
Chiefs -5.5
Chargers UNDER 44.5
Lions +7.5
Raiders +4.5

IndyJeffrey:
Bills Over 48.5
Eagles +3.5
Seahawks -3-Confidence
Chiefs -5.5
Rams -7.5

JW17:
Broncos (-3) Confidence
Packers (-4)
Seahawks (-3)
Cardinals (+3)
Chiefs (-5.5)

FastEddie:
JETS+4
STEELERS+6.5
RAIDERS+4.5
COLTS+3
LIONS+7.5

JohnnyQ:
Cardinals Under 52
Chiefs (-5.5) CONFIDENCE
Patriots (-3)
Saints (+4)
Ravens Under 50.5

SOOPOO:
Falcons -3.5 Confidence
Bills -6.5
Bears +7.5
Packers -4
Lions +7.5

Johnzimbo:
Titans under 52
Giants under 41.5
Saints under 50---Confidence
Bills over 48.5
Raiders over 50.5

miplet:
Jets +4 (+3.5) - confidence
Panthers OVER 44 (45)
Texans OVER 45 (45.5)
Titans OVER 52 (53.5)
Redskins -1 (-1.5)

Greetings!

I'm about to do a detail check to make sure that I didn't miss anybody, but I don't think I did. It looks like there are a total of 22 players so far this season, myself included.

Of course, new players can jump in before Week 2, but Week 1 counts as their skip week if they do.

As of right now, Entry Fees would total $525 against $650 in guaranteed added prizes (I don't pay Entry Fees) and $180 in possible weekly prizes if the Perfection Bonus is won in Week 18. (By necessity, the full amount would be paid out just by virtue of a perfect Week 18 record alone)

Not quite what I was hoping for compared to 33 players in 2019, but I figured there would be some kind of drop off given that we took the 2020 season off. Hopefully, others will see the clear value in jumping in Week 2 (as of right now, added prizes are more than 100% the sum of Entry Fees) and will want to jump in.

Let's have a great season!

The AP flight from WOV definitely had an impact. Sad.

Quote: unJon

The AP flight from WOV definitely had an impact. Sad.

link to original post

I guess, but I don't really care that much. I don't understand why they wouldn't participate just to play the game. You don't even have to post anything in order to play the game.

Survey of Week 1 Picks: (Good luck, all!)


Chiefs and Packers were picked to beat the point spread most often: 7 times. Chiefs were confidence pick twice, Packers once.

Browns, Giants, Titans and Vikes were never picked ATS.

Most Picked Games for ATS picks:
49ers ( 6 + 1) vs Lions( 4 + 0)
Packers (7 + 1) vs Saints (3 + 0)

Soopoo had boldest pick - Falcons were his Confidence Pick, no one else picked the Falcons.

I won the Wimp Award: My five picks (49ers, Chiefs, Broncos, Packers,Redskins) were also the 5 most popular picks. My confidence pick was the only team, Chiefs, with two confidence picks. No cajones.

Johnzimbo's picks were all overs or unders.

Edit: "Major errors in the following statement" See MIssion's post below.

FastEddie and I were the only two to pick all favorites. Mission and Wizard were the only two to pick all dogs.

Not me. I've got the Chiefs and the Ravens---both favorites.

Also, FastEddie picked all dogs. + means they are the Underdog.

Wizard also picked the Jaguars, who are a favorite...

ANNOUNCEMENT

Greetings!

Due to some controversy that I am not going to get into at this time, I would like to make the following Announcement:

1.) Any Picks Games that anyone else wishes to bankroll are to take place completely separately and without me Administrating them in any way whatsoever.

2.) Any side bets or (additional) prizes relating to what occurs in this game may be discussed in this thread, but will NOT be Administrated by me whatsoever.

3.) Any side bets or prizes that would involve any scoring outside of what I would normally do in the context of this game will NOT be Administrated by me whatsoever.

4.) Any separate contests that anyone would wish to bankroll should NOT be mentioned in this thread and should instead have a separate thread created.

5.) In short, I will have nothing to do with any other prizes or contests that anyone else wishes to do.

PLAYOFF PICKS GAME:

1.) I MAY choose to administer a Playoff Picks Game this year. I do not believe that I did one in 2018 (there was a NCAAF Bowl Contest and a Super Bowl Props Contest already going on that year) and while I did Administrate the 2019 Playoff Picks Game; I did not contribute the prizes.

2.) I will make a decision in the middle of the season (around Week 10) whether or not I wish to conduct a Playoff Picks Game. If I decide to do so, at a minimum, everyone playing this game will have to express their intent to participate.

-One thing that frustrated me about past Playoff Picks Games is that the number of participants generally dropped, even though that game had no Entry Fee.

3.) One or two of the Perfection Bonuses from the 2019 WoV NFL Picks Game had the winners request that I use it to seed the 2020 March Madness Game, which didn't happen because March Madness was cancelled.

-Those funds (which weren't much in total) I will figure out and partially use to seed a 2022 March Madness Picks Game. I apologize for not using these for a 2021 March Madness Game, but to be honest, I'd completely forgotten about it by then.

-There were also two perfection bonuses from 2019 (DJATC and BeachBumBabs) that I can't find any record of ever having been claimed. I'd even sent some PM's titled, "I Would Like to Pay You Please," at that time. It was at that time that a few people asked me to add it to March Madness 2020---but that tournament did not end up happening.

-Anyway, we will do a March Madness 2022 contest and I will figure out and dispose of any related funds from 2019 Playoff Perfection Bonuses at that time. I think it's like $30-$40 in total***, but I will also be adding other prizes.

***Kuma won $10 in Perfection Bonus that he asked to be added to 2020 March Madness Free Roll. That tournament did not happen, but that money will be used to partially seed 2022 March Madness Free Roll and he will be given credit. DJATC ($6.67) and BeachBumBabs ($10) did not claim their Perfection Bonuses, so those will be added to 2022 March Madness with credit given them, unless they contact me and ask me to do something else with it.

If we get 30 or more players (so 8 signups for week 2), I will add a $100 side prize TBD, with at least $50 of the prize guaranteed to be won by a player that signs up in the next week and didn’t play week 1.

Quote: unJon

If we get more than 30 players (so 8 signups for week 2), I will add a $100 side prize TBD, with at least $50 of the prize guaranteed to be won by a player that signs up in the next week and didn’t play week 1.

link to original post

That's a generous contribution in that not only is it straight cash, but also dilutes the value of your current entry!

Quote: Mission146

Quote: unJon

If we get more than 30 players (so 8 signups for week 2), I will add a $100 side prize TBD, with at least $50 of the prize guaranteed to be won by a player that signs up in the next week and didn’t play week 1.

link to original post

That's a generous contribution in that not only is it straight cash, but also dilutes the value of your current entry!

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Yup but more fun with more players.

WOV contestants were 35-25 in the early games; late games may have more bad surprises.

Quote: gordonm888

WOV contestants were 35-25 in the early games; late games may have more bad surprises.

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Or just worse pickers. My 5-0 picks this week were all early games. ;-)

Quote: unJon

Quote: gordonm888

WOV contestants were 35-25 in the early games; late games may have more bad surprises.

link to original post

Or just worse pickers. My 5-0 picks this week were all early games. ;-)

link to original post

Great start, UnJon. Though the 35-25 I quoted was against the spread and did not include O/U picks, so you only contributed 1-0 to that early ATS record.

I believe the contestants are 46-44 ATS after the late afternoon games. Again. that does not include O/U picks - someone else is welcome to add those to this tally.

Mission's Monday Vitriol Takes

Cowboys 29 @ Buccaneers 31: I'd really hate to start a Mission's Monday Vitriol this way, especially on Week 1, but this was just an excellent game played by both sides. Yes, the messiah dispatched of the false prophet and all of that, but I'm really hoping it's a playoff preview.

Seahawks 28 @ Colts 16: Russell Wilson went 18/23 for 254 Yards and 4 Touchdowns against no interceptions. There are probably still Wilson detractors out there that will point to his five credited carries for nine yards and yell, "See? I told you he's a run-first quarterback!"

Jaguars 21 @ Texans 37: Hey, look, it's Tyrod Taylor! I wonder how the Bills would have fared yesterday if they still had that guy? Why were the Jaguars favored in this one? Does drafting a great QB prospect really undo almost a half decade of systematic self-destruction?

Eagles 32 @ Falcons 6: Jalen always Hurts, but yesterday, Jalen Hurts Matt. (Don't groan. Come on. You know the pro sports writers are going to be doing it, too). I guess 26 points is enough of a lead for the Eagles if 25 won't do it for the Falcons.

Chargers 20 @ Washington 16: Where was the football team? Washington said they would be bringing a football team. Defense was fine; I guess they brought half of a football team. Why are they still, "Football Team!!??" They've had a year to come up with something!

Steelers 23 @ Bills 16: Six yards per passing attempt, not completion. Roethlisberger's fat ass should have left when the Killer B's did, so the Steelers could move on at quarterback rather than some weird mediocrity holding pattern. That said, some games you don't really need the offense to do a lot. I at least hope the defensive trend continues, the Steelers are good at reminding people Allen is mortal.

49ers 41 @ Lions 33: Instead of losing with great quarterback play, at least the Lions will only be losing with above average quarterback play from now on.

Vikings 24 @ Bengals 27: Haha, Kirk Cousins, even when you don't suck, you still suck. Now, everyone point and laugh at the kids who lost to the Bungles! This shouldn't change anything. The Bengals should still be awful and the Vikings anywhere from 7-10 to 10-7 and a Wildcard loss.

Jets 14: @ Carolina 19: The Jets let that mediocrity go...and it was all fun and games until they had to face that mediocrity in Week 1 and he, sort of, made them pay. He had two touchdowns (one rushing). I don't know. Teams can't all be winners and games can't all be winners, what's the win Over/Under for these two teams combined? Ten? Twelve?

Kyler Murray 38 @ Titans 13:

Browns: 29 @ Chiefs: 33: That's funny, Mayfield literally lives in a stadium (according to the commercials) and he still doesn't seem to know where the endzone is. Even when he manages to find it, he still manages to find the other team almost as often. Patrick said, "The endzone is Ma' Home, boy!" See, because Mahomes...and ma' home....and KC was at home...ah, forget it.

Dolphins: 17 @ Patriots 16: Mac Jones dishing the ball to all sorts of targets with high accuracy. Looks a little familiar. This game was important because the AFC East's feelings might have been hurt if the Division went into Week 2 with no wins. Wait, why does the NFC East have a win? They didn't play any inter-division games.

Broncos 27 @ Giants 13: The waters have been troubled at the Broncos QB position since Manning retired, but it looks like a bridge may have been built over them. They don't necessarily need greatness, just competence, and Teddy can bring that.

Packers 3 @ Saints 38: Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!! Welcome to opposite world, where 25% of Jameis Winston's 20 pass attempts are touchdowns and Aaron Rodgers....bahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!! *$$%^ you, Aaron Rodgers!

Bears 14 @ Rams 34: Instead of failing to win Super Bowls with a quarterback who is merely above average, the Rams will now fail to win super bowls with a great quarterback. Don't let this game fool you, playing the Bears is the stress test to determine mediocrity or sub-mediocrity, has been for decades.

Ravens @ Raiders Tonight: Eight wins, ten million dollars. Seven wins, ten million dollars. Four wins, ten million dollars. That's 1.58 million per win, for those of you keeping score. You guys sure Del Rio couldn't have done this cheaper? The Raiders went 12-4 in 2016, you know? I don't expect Gruden to improve his millions:wins ratio in this one.

Quote: unJon

Quote: gordonm888

WOV contestants were 35-25 in the early games; late games may have more bad surprises.

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Or just worse pickers. My 5-0 picks this week were all early games. ;-)

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6-0 with the Confidence Pick? Nice!

Quote: Mission146

Browns: 29 @ Chiefs: 33: That's funny, Mayfield literally lives in the stadium (according to the commercials) and he still doesn't seem to know where the endzone is. Even when he manages to find it, he still manages to find the other team almost as often. Patrick said, "The endzone is Ma' Home, boy!" See, because Mahomes...and ma' home....ah, forget it.

Yep Baker has the local ads and Patrick has the national ones.

Anyhows, good for the Brownies for MAYBE not totally sucking for a 2nd year in a row ( time will tell ). BAD for the CHIEFS for not being able to cover the spread and messing up my Confidence Pick.

Interesting to see a TON of On-line Sports Book ads when the home of the Browns doesn't have that yet.

Quote: JohnnyQ

Yep Baker has the local ads and Patrick has the national ones.

Anyhows, good for the Brownies for MAYBE not totally sucking for a 2nd year in a row ( time will tell ). BAD for the CHIEFS for not being able to cover the spread and messing up my Confidence Pick.

Interesting to see a TON of On-line Sports Book ads when the home of the Browns doesn't have that yet.

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It's all going to be about what they do in the Division, I think. This is still miles away from Hue Jackson; I look at the Browns schedule and still can't point to any games and say, "That's definitely a win," but I can't say, "That's definitely a loss," either.

I'd set the bar at 9-8 for an acceptable season. I never thought I'd say that about the Browns. Actually, I never thought I'd say that about anyone, but you know what I mean.

Quote: Mission146

Steelers 23 @ Bills 16: Six yards per passing attempt, not completion. Roethlisberger's fat ass should have left when the Killer B's did, so the Steelers could move on at quarterback rather than some weird mediocrity holding pattern. That said, some games you don't really need the offense to do a lot. I at least hope the defensive trend continues, the Steelers are good at reminding people Allen is mortal.

It is going to be a long year for Steeler fans. A blocked punt was the difference? Ben still looked confident, but the rest of the offense was a big "meh." I kind of think when Ben goes it will be like the post-Bradshaw period, which was 10 years of wandering from mediocre QB to mediocre QB or worse.

TRIVIA: Bradshaw's replacement was Cliff Stoudt. He was so despised the Pittsburgh Maulers came closest ever to a USFL sellout* so Pittsburgh fans could throw snowballs at him when he came to town.

*AFIK. I am not hunting the details, this is how I remember it from way back.

Quote: AZDuffman

It is going to be a long year for Steeler fans. A blocked punt was the difference? Ben still looked confident, but the rest of the offense was a big "meh." I kind of think when Ben goes it will be like the post-Bradshaw period, which was 10 years of wandering from mediocre QB to mediocre QB or worse.

TRIVIA: Bradshaw's replacement was Cliff Stoudt. He was so despised the Pittsburgh Maulers came closest ever to a USFL sellout* so Pittsburgh fans could throw snowballs at him when he came to town.

*AFIK. I am not hunting the details, this is how I remember it from way back.

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Call it loyalty; call it stability; call it insanity; it's all the same thing.

The problem with kicking a can down a road that ends in a cliff is that you have to eventually kick your can off a cliff; that's made worse when you have no choice but to go anywhere the can goes. It's made worse still when you're passing all of these different intersections that may lead to downhill slopes, but are followed by uphill climbs back up a new mountain.

The problem with Ben Roethlisberger is that he and Philip Rivers are the same guy; always have been. Rivers is retired. Roethlisberger isn't.

The problem for the Steelers is threefold:

1. Roethlisberger isn't Tom Brady.

2. The Steelers aren't even pretending that Roethlisberger is Tom Brady.

3. Roethlisberger didn't run ahead of the can and fall off the cliff first.

So, what do we make of this?

Problem #1: Obvious, he's not Tom Brady.

Problem #2: The other two B's left and the Steelers haven't really tried to build a Super Bowl winning offense around Ben. They have a defense that is maybe a contender, but you'd need the perfect storm first for the offense to do just enough every time it is needed, and second, for the offense to never have to do more than just enough.

Problem #3: The biggest problem is that Roethlisberger didn't run ahead of the can and off the cliff. If he had, then someone else could get behind the can and kick it such that it makes a turn down a different road.

Fact is, Pittsburgh Steelers fans are too demanding. It's easier to do a planned rebuild than it is to constantly try to semi-rebuild. They're going down a road that leads to where the Broncos have been since winning that Super Bowl. Has it only been six years? Probably seems longer if you're a Broncos fan.

Problem for the Steelers is that it's been over a decade and now a few years since they built a team that wouldn't need to catch lightning in a bottle. Over a decade already.

But, the fans are too demanding. The fans are not going to put up with your four or five win season without calling for Tomlin's head, even if it's a planned rebuild. At the expense of the, "Win now," philosophy comes the problem of not, "Winning big," or winning the big one.

But, Roethlisberger hasn't done anything in the last few seasons that Sam Darnold couldn't. Hell, he hasn't done anything that Sam Bradford couldn't, and that guy's retired, too. One difference between Darnold and Roethlisberger is that Darnold has a lot of can kicking left to do. I don't know what they'd have to do to get him, but they should have done that.

The can's running out of space, and no matter how softly you kick it, it becomes that much more dented.

I think I went 0-6. Bills lost by 7 as fave. Packers lost by a million as faves. Falcons lost by a bunch as faves. Bears got smoked. I think I had Lions also so that must mean they lost too.

I will sell my picks for $10 a pick for those who want the easy fade….

Quote: Mission146

Quote: AZDuffman

It is going to be a long year for Steeler fans. A blocked punt was the difference? Ben still looked confident, but the rest of the offense was a big "meh." I kind of think when Ben goes it will be like the post-Bradshaw period, which was 10 years of wandering from mediocre QB to mediocre QB or worse.

TRIVIA: Bradshaw's replacement was Cliff Stoudt. He was so despised the Pittsburgh Maulers came closest ever to a USFL sellout* so Pittsburgh fans could throw snowballs at him when he came to town.

*AFIK. I am not hunting the details, this is how I remember it from way back.

link to original post

Call it loyalty; call it stability; call it insanity; it's all the same thing.

The problem with kicking a can down a road that ends in a cliff is that you have to eventually kick your can off a cliff; that's made worse when you have no choice but to go anywhere the can goes. It's made worse still when you're passing all of these different intersections that may lead to downhill slopes, but are followed by uphill climbs back up a new mountain.

The problem with Ben Roethlisberger is that he and Philip Rivers are the same guy; always have been. Rivers is retired. Roethlisberger isn't.

The problem for the Steelers is threefold:

1. Roethlisberger isn't Tom Brady.

2. The Steelers aren't even pretending that Roethlisberger is Tom Brady.

3. Roethlisberger didn't run ahead of the can and fall off the cliff first.

So, what do we make of this?

Problem #1: Obvious, he's not Tom Brady.

Problem #2: The other two B's left and the Steelers haven't really tried to build a Super Bowl winning offense around Ben. They have a defense that is maybe a contender, but you'd need the perfect storm first for the offense to do just enough every time it is needed, and second, for the offense to never have to do more than just enough.

Problem #3: The biggest problem is that Roethlisberger didn't run ahead of the can and off the cliff. If he had, then someone else could get behind the can and kick it such that it makes a turn down a different road.

Fact is, Pittsburgh Steelers fans are too demanding. It's easier to do a planned rebuild than it is to constantly try to semi-rebuild. They're going down a road that leads to where the Broncos have been since winning that Super Bowl. Has it only been six years? Probably seems longer if you're a Broncos fan.

Problem for the Steelers is that it's been over a decade and now a few years since they built a team that wouldn't need to catch lightning in a bottle. Over a decade already.

But, the fans are too demanding. The fans are not going to put up with your four or five win season without calling for Tomlin's head, even if it's a planned rebuild. At the expense of the, "Win now," philosophy comes the problem of not, "Winning big," or winning the big one.

But, Roethlisberger hasn't done anything in the last few seasons that Sam Darnold couldn't. Hell, he hasn't done anything that Sam Bradford couldn't, and that guy's retired, too. One difference between Darnold and Roethlisberger is that Darnold has a lot of can kicking left to do. I don't know what they'd have to do to get him, but they should have done that.

The can's running out of space, and no matter how softly you kick it, it becomes that much more dented.

link to original post

I would not call the fans "too demanding." Look at Pirate fans. They do not demand anything, and they get what they demand. Well, lots of that home attendance is out of towners. I have been told by hotel workers how much busier local hotels are when the Pirates are in town. The fans still demand little and as a result the get a team of jobbers. The AZ Cardinals were the same thing until they got their current stadium.

As a result, the Steelres are the only team that has not had a total wipeout year of less than 5 wins since 1970.

Expect the Steelers 2020s to be similar to their 1980s in which they finished exactly .500.

What is the post-mortem on the Packers?

1) The Saints are really, really good.
2) The talent on the Packers' roster is bad
3) Aaron Rodgers has a bad attitude- which may have spread to his team - and they are playing below their potential
4) Aaron Rodgers just got old real fast.
5) The Packers' coaching is bad.
6) What Rodgers' says: "Its just one game."

Quote: AZDuffman

I would not call the fans "too demanding." Look at Pirate fans. They do not demand anything, and they get what they demand. Well, lots of that home attendance is out of towners. I have been told by hotel workers how much busier local hotels are when the Pirates are in town. The fans still demand little and as a result the get a team of jobbers. The AZ Cardinals were the same thing until they got their current stadium.

As a result, the Steelres are the only team that has not had a total wipeout year of less than 5 wins since 1970.

Expect the Steelers 2020s to be similar to their 1980s in which they finished exactly .500.

link to original post

What is a, "Pirates Fan"? Do they still have those? Spend Nutting, get Nutting. You can't change the standard without first changing ownership and there's no reason for ownership to want to be changed when utter sucktitude is rewarded by league revenue-sharing. What you end up with is an MLB team that's really just a link in the fence that is the farm system. Here are the steps for a financially successful franchise:

1.) Exist.

2.) Profit.

No incentive to win, unless you can win almost completely without spending. Even if you can, then the reasons why you won themselves can increase your profit margin---by being traded.

I don't think that there's any fan demand there because there's nothing for the fans to demand. Nothing that they realistically can demand. I guess they could demand a complete organizational overhaul of the MLB itself, but that seems unlikely. Hotels tend to be busier in the Summer, concert season, golfing, outdoor work to do, boating, fishing...I think the only added business that the Pirates really bring hotels is whatever hotel the opposing team and their staff stays at.

Quote: gordonm888

What is the post-mortem on the Packers?

1) The Saints are really, really good.
2) The talent on the Packers' roster is bad
3) Aaron Rodgers has a bad attitude- which may have spread to his team - and they are playing below their potential
4) Aaron Rodgers just got old real fast.
5) The Packers' coaching is bad.
6) What Rodgers' says: "Its just one game."

link to original post

Tough question. Are we in Final Jeopardy?

Quote: Mission146

.I think the only added business that the Pirates really bring hotels is whatever hotel the opposing team and their staff stays at.

You would be incorrect there. Thousands of folks come in to watch their team in a nice ballpark. The people I talked to were not talking "summer." The specifically said when the Pirates were home, which is only half the days in summer.

Their ownership has been bad over several owners over 30 years. I once heard they had the first gay owner in all of pro sports. Some writer was accused of anti-gay bias towards said owner and his reply was along the line of "your being gay has nothing to do with your team being awful!"

They take the revenue share and the pretty decent attendance and they run a nice little concession being the jobber of he NL. Off season they host weddings, proms, and other events in their luxury box level.

Quote: AZDuffman

You would be incorrect there. Thousands of folks come in to watch their team in a nice ballpark. The people I talked to were not talking "summer." The specifically said when the Pirates were home, which is only half the days in summer.

Their ownership has been bad over several owners over 30 years. I once heard they had the first gay owner in all of pro sports. Some writer was accused of anti-gay bias towards said owner and his reply was along the line of "your being gay has nothing to do with your team being awful!"

They take the revenue share and the pretty decent attendance and they run a nice little concession being the jobber of he NL. Off season they host weddings, proms, and other events in their luxury box level.

link to original post

I suppose you may well be right. I guess if you're going to travel to see your team in an Away game, might as well do it when your team has a high probability of winning, so maybe the Pirates are benefitting the hospitality industry, after all.

Quote: Mission146

I suppose you may well be right. I guess if you're going to travel to see your team in an Away game, might as well do it when your team has a high probability of winning, so maybe the Pirates are benefitting the hospitality industry, after all.

link to original post

It is that the Pirates are jobbers and the beautiful park. I used to walk by the park almost daily and always saw away people milling about early if it was a day game, no reason to think it was only day games they came for. In Phoenix people piled in for spring training.

Sports does bring people in. I do not know that these billion dollar stadiums come close to bringing in a positive amount, but a team does generate more activity than the average person notices.

Week 1 Results

Mission146 (4-2)
STEELERS +6.5 CONFIDENCE (win)
TEXANS +3 (win)
CHIEFS -5.5 (loss)
DOLPHINS +3 (win)
RAVENS -4.5 (loss)

PlayYourCardsRight (4-2)
BRONCOS OVER 41.5 (loss)
PANTHERS -4 CONFIDENCE (win)
TEXANS +3 (win)
COLTS +3 (loss)
RAIDERS +4.5 (win)

EdCollins (4-2)
TEXANS +3 (CONFIDENCE) (win)
FOOTBALL TEAM -1 (loss)
SEAHAWKS -3 (win)
BRONCOS -3 (win)
PATRIOTS -3 (loss)

Wizard (5-1)
JAGUARS (-3) (loss)
CARDINALS (+3) (win)
EAGLES (+3.5) CONFIDENCE (win)
SAINTS (+4) (win)
RAIDERS (+4.5) (win)

RideTheEdge (4-2)
BEARS +7.5 (loss)
COLTS +3 (loss)
COLTS UNDER 49.5 (win)
49ERS OVER 45.5 (win)
49ERS -7.5 CONFIDENCE (win)

FourFiveFace (4-2)
FOOTBALL TEAM -1 (loss)
EAGLES +3.5 (win)
49ERS -7.5 (win)
CHIEFS -5.5 (loss)
RAMS -7.5 CONFIDENCE (win)

scolist (4-1)
PANTHERS -4 (win)
BENGALS +3 (win)
49ERS -7.5 (win)
BRONCOS -3 (win)
PACKERS -4 (loss)

GenWyzgy (2-4)
CHARGERS OVER 44.5 (loss)
BENGALS +3 (win)
EAGLES OVER 48 CONFIDENCE (loss)
BROWNS OVER 54 (win)
PACKERS -4 (loss)

Sparty10k (4-2)
STEELERS +6.5 (win)
FOOTBALL TEAM -1 CONFIDENCE (loss)
SEAHAWKS -3 (win)
49ERS -7.5 (win)
BRONCOS -3 (win)

Gordonm888 (2-4)
FOOTBALL TEAM -1 (loss)
49ERS -7.5 (win)
CHIEFS -5.5 CONFIDENCE (loss)
BRONCOS -3 (win)
PACKERS -4 (loss)

unJon (6-0)
LIONS OVER 45.5 CONFIDENCE (win)
EAGLES UNDER 48 (win)
VIKINGS OVER 47.5 (win)
SEAHAWKS UNDER 49.5 (win)
CHARGERS +1 (win)

Joeman (1-5)
PACKERS -4 CONFIDENCE (loss)
BENGALS +3 (win)
RAVENS UNDER 50.5 (loss)
JAGUARS -3 (loss)
BILLS -6.5 (loss)

mwalz9 (3-3)
CARDINALS +3 (win)
DOLPHINS +3 (win)
49ERS -7.5 (win)
PACKERS -4 (loss)
BILLS -6.5 CONFIDENCE (loss)

jml24 (2-3)
BILLS -6.5 (loss)
EAGLES +3.5 (win)
LIONS +7.5 (loss)
BEARS +7.5 (loss)
SAINTS +4 (win)

AZDuffman (2-4)
STEELERS OVER 48.5 CONFIDENCE (loss)
CHIEFS -5.5 (loss)
CHARGERS UNDER 44.5 (win)
LIONS +7.5 (loss)
RAIDERS +4.5 (win)

IndyJeffrey (4-2)
BILLS OVER 48.5 (loss)
EAGLES +3.5 (win)
SEAHAWKS -3 CONFIDENCE (win)
CHIEFS -5.5 (loss)
RAMS -7.5 (win)

JW17 (4-2)
BRONCOS (-3) CONFIDENCE (win)
PACKERS (-4) (loss)
SEAHAWKS (-3) (win)
CARDINALS (+3) (win)
CHIEFS (-5.5) (loss)

FastEddie (2-3)
JETS +4 (loss)
STEELERS +6.5 (win)
RAIDERS +4.5 (win)
COLTS +3 (loss)
LIONS +7.5 (loss)

JohnnyQ (2-4)
CARDINALS UNDER 52 (win)
CHIEFS (-5.5) CONFIDENCE (loss)
PATRIOTS (-3) (loss)
SAINTS (+4) (win)
RAVENS UNDER 50.5 (loss)

SOOPOO (0-6)
FALCONS -3.5 CONFIDENCE (loss)
BILLS -6.5 (loss)
BEARS +7.5 (loss)
PACKERS -4 (loss)
LIONS +7.5 (loss)

Johnzimbo (5-1)
TITANS UNDER 52 (win)
GIANTS UNDER 41.5 (win)
SAINTS UNDER 50 CONFIDENCE (win)
BILLS OVER 48.5 (loss)
RAIDERS OVER 50.5 (win)

miplet (1-5)
JETS +4 (+3.5) CONFIDENCE (loss)
PANTHERS OVER 44 (45) (loss)
TEXANS OVER 45 (45.5) (win)
TITANS OVER 52 (53.5) (loss)
FOOTBALL TEAM -1 (-1.5) (loss)



Week 1 Standings

Name	Wins	Losses	%
unJon	6	0	100.00%
Johnzimbo	5	1	83.33%
Wizard	5	1	83.33%
scolist	4	1	80.00%
EdCollins	4	2	66.67%
FourFiveFace	4	2	66.67%
IndyJeffrey	4	2	66.67%
JW17	4	2	66.67%
Mission146	4	2	66.67%
PlayYourCardsRight	4	2	66.67%
RideTheEdge	4	2	66.67%
Sparty10k	4	2	66.67%
mwalz9	3	3	50.00%
FastEddie	2	3	40.00%
jml24	2	3	40.00%
AZDuffman	2	4	33.33%
GenWyzgy	2	4	33.33%
Gordonm888	2	4	33.33%
JohnnyQ	2	4	33.33%
Joeman	1	5	16.67%
miplet	1	5	16.67%
SOOPOO	0	6	0.00%
Totals	69	60	53.49%

Ok, I've given you my week 1 handicap. Now it's time to win this thing.

Thanks EdCollins!

That’s not a bad first week, and congratulations to UnJon on breaking the seal of the Perfection Bonus in Week 1! Solo, at that!

Perfection Bonus Tally

UnJon: $10 (Week 1)

Week 2 Perfection Bonus: $10

If my Monday vitriol proves anything, it’s that talking smack is always easier after the result is already known. My thoughts on MNF were…less than prescient.

It was the week of the underdog, with dogs going 10-5, I think, against our lines. Many of these dogs also won outright, sometimes in dominating fashion!

Finally, UnJon has $100 in prizes he intends to add to the contest if we can get eight, or more, new players who start playing as of Week 2. (Week 1 would automatically count as the Skip Week for any such players.) If this condition is satisfied, UnJon has stated that $50 of these prizes will be specifically designated for people to join in Week 2, so great value in jumping in now!

3-3! Going for that mediocre average prize!

I told Mission I'd be awful at this.

Quote: AZDuffman

I told Mission I'd be awful at this.

link to original post

Geez . . . . you tied with me. I guess I did worse than I realized. :(