Help Me Understand This Boxing Bet
Quote: Jimmy2TimesJermell Charlo squares off with Brian Castano for the junior middleweight entire alphabet of belts (IBF, WBA, WBA & WBO) on July17. I like Charlo. I have a question on the betting line that is currently available to me at the Seneca Niagara Sports book (US side of Niagara Falls). Currently, the ML for Charlo is -265. But the Tie No Bet (TNB) for Charlo is -250. Why would the TNB line be better than the ML bet? For the ML Charlo must win; for the TNB Charlo pays better than ML (-250 vs -265) for a win and if the bout is a draw you get the original wager back - a draw under the -265 ML and your wager is lost. Why would a book give what I see an an advantage with the TNB? All the other bouts listed always has worse odds on the TNB than the ML. Note: the TNB is not a bet that the bout is a draw. Is this a way to "stimulate" action on this bout? Would greatly appreciate your thoughts and input. Thank you, Thank you.
Hammer the -250 TNB! The lines are made and presented by human beings, who may not be perfect.
What is the line for the underdog? And what is the TNB line for the underdog?
Also, is there a line on if the bout is a draw?
For the Charlo vs Castano here is what is listed as of right now:
Charlo ML win -265; Draw +1800; Castano ML win +200
For the Tie No Bet (TNB): Charlo -250; Castano +180.
So for Charlo the TNB is better than the ML; for Castano the TNB is worse than the ML win (as one would expect).
I will grab this Charlo TNB within the hour, within the hour.
Quote: Jimmy2TimesWhy would a book give what I see an an advantage with the TNB?
Circa currently has the favorite at -235 on a two-way line. Extremely doubtful there is an advantage at -250.
As for why Seneca is giving a better price on the two-way line than the three-way, no way to know for sure, but I have a few guesses what might have caused it to happen:
-They opened with the tnb odds longer, but one of them moved on action.
-They put them up at different times and it was different linesmakers who put them up without checking what else they were offering.
-They put them up at different times and all their opening lines are just copied from another sportsbook.
-They pay a third party line service that doesn't have the same "skin in the game" that they do.
MGM does this stuff all the time. eg money line on Lightening to win game 4 was different than Lightening to win the series 4-0. It does give an advantage some time, but it's rare.
Quote: Jimmy2TimesSOOPOO, thanks for the reply.
For the Charlo vs Castano here is what is listed as of right now:
Charlo ML win -265; Draw +1800; Castano ML win +200
For the Tie No Bet (TNB): Charlo -250; Castano +180.
So for Charlo the TNB is better than the ML; for Castano the TNB is worse than the ML win (as one would expect).
I will grab this Charlo TNB within the hour, within the hour.
Will you watch the fight at the casino?
I play at their golf course once a week recently. To me, it’s the overall best public course in Western New York. They give me $10 in free play for each round I play….
Quote: SOOPOOWill you watch the fight at the casino?
I play at their golf course once a week recently. To me, it’s the overall best public course in Western New York. They give me $10 in free play for each round I play….
I often do watch at Seneca and would welcome the opportunity to meet and say hello to you sometime as I always read your interesting and informative postings. For this Charlo bout I will have to miss it entirely (it is on Showtime) as I will be totally off grid camping for the weekend of the bout. There is still no line at Seneca for Charlo by stoppage which I also want to put some money on. Castano is skilled and has an effective boxer-puncher style, but his propensity to want to stay in the pocket and exchange is the perfect style for Charlo to KO him, to KO him
