Happens All the Time Example -- Lesson in Variance

So I was tinkering with MLB totals since the memo went out to check for substances on pitchers. I used my own criteria (which or may not have been better than none of my criteria), and have been making dinner-sized wagers along the way. Anyway, betting on multiple sites to get the best numbers, I noticed in my "graded wagers" list on one site that I had won 10 bets in a row on that site.

No great handicapping; just an example of subsets of events occasionally creating an eye-popping pattern (in this case, a streak of 10 ATS wins) in the context of it all. These things, as they say, do happen, and our pattern recognition picks them out as opposed to patterns of W-W-L-L-L-W-W-L-W-L.

Odds against 10 ATS in a row is usually calculated at 1024-1.

So am I a bad man when it comes to handicapping baseball? No, I'm ahead a few dinners. That's just the way the results fell on this site.

I notice you always win a lot but never post your picks....just the results.

Quote: vegas

I notice you always win a lot but never post your picks....just the results.

First off, the point I was making (if it wasn't clear) was that I use multiple offshores and the record at that one in particular (Northbet) showed 10 consecutive ATS wins, which is unusual, but in no way reflects actually winning 10 games in a row across all sites. I wasn't attempting to declare any baseball expertise (I have none).

As to reporting results after the fact, God, I hate when people say junk like that.

If you go to the "Tipsters or Gypsters?" thread at VCT, you can see that I was monitored by former Seattle Times reporter Mike McCusker, who monitored a hundred plus sports services in the 80's and 90's and published the results annually in "Tipsters or Gypsters?" -- which was also known as The McCusker Report. It was published in Las Vegas. There's also a pic of an article from the San Francisco Chronicle posted that is about McCusker.

In terms of long-term, I was in the invitation-only Wise Guys Contest for 30 years, with two plays every week of every football season publicly available for everyone to see. Here's an old blurb. The Wise Guys was canceled last season.

https://www.playbooksports.com/Vegas-Wise-Guys/

Also, last season I was in a handful of offshore contests, finishing tied for sixth in Northbet's NFL contest (NFL no spread; every game) out of a couple thousand; finishing tied for sixth in Heritage Sports' Race to the Superbowl Contest (NFL no spread but with NFL totals added) out of a couple thousand; finishing top 10 in Gaming Today's NFL contest (no spreads) out of a lot (maybe 20,000); and finishing tied for second in Youwager's NFL ATS contest (out of 285 or thereabouts).

Now I am justifiably proud of last season's contest results. I do not usually play in NFL spread contests, but Youwager added a wrinkle where you had the option of playing zero or up to five games each week, so I played.

While the Wise Guys plays have always been publicly available for 30 years, the plays in last year's contests that I've mentioned above could have been followed by anyone with accounts on those sites.

I appreciate the opportunity to blather in response to your comment. Thanks.

The thing about me -- comments like the ones vegas made above are made in ignorance (lack of knowledge). The comments imply that I am reporting less than the entire story. I have spent 40 years in a 90% scam business while being absolutely pristine in reporting reality. It has cost me mightily in the pocketbook to have done this, so I bristle when it's suggested that I do less than complete scientific reporting of actual results.

P.S. to vegas -- if you go to the "Retro Road trip" thread at VCT, there's a pic of me pulling a Thomas Magnum with your favorite vehicle.

Did you ever sell your picks?