Jon Rahm - PGA Memorial Golf Tournament

Wow! Jon Rahm was leading the PGA Tour Memorial Tournament by 6 shots (-18 under par) after 3 rounds and was forced to withdraw after a positive CV-19 Test. Crazy story. Very unfortunate for him.

https://twitter.com/PGATOUR/status/1401306712750047235

What will sportsbooks do with this unique event?
Refund bets on Rahm or stick to the rules and all bets on him are a loss?

I have a small matchup bet with Rahm against McIlroy. I assume after McIlroy plays one more hole he will be the winner of the matchup and my wager will lose. I will update the result when the tourney is completed.

Current leaderboard (Rahm was at -18):
https://www.pgatour.com/leaderboard.html

Edit to add:
https://www.pgatour.com/news/2021/06/05/jon-rahm-withdraws-2021-the-memorial-tournament-presented-by-nationwide-covid-19-coronavirus.html

Sux to be him.

If it's William Hill, the rules appear to be, once a golfer tees off in the first round, all bets on the golfer are action. Withdrawls prior to starting are refunded.

In terms of the Rahm/McIlroy matchup, there is a specific rule: "If one golfer continues play after his opponent has missed the cut, withdrawn (WD) or been disqualified (DQ), the golfer who continues play wins his matchup."

Rahm was having quite the day in Dublin Ohio. In the morning, he made a hole in one while completing his rain delayed second round then went out and shot 8 under for his 3rd round. He had a large lead going into the final round on Sunday.

Hole in one:
https://www.pgatour.com/video/2021/06/05/jon-rahm_s-ace-on-the-16th-hole-in-the-second-round-of-the-memor.html

Fwiw, Rahm was the betting favorite to win this tournament at around 10-1 (he won the event in 2020).
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Looks like some books will offer refunds and others are counting it a loss (normal WD golf rules):
https://www.actionnetwork.com/golf/jon-rahm-withdraws-memorial-tournament-positive-covid-19-test

Before Rahm withdrew the odds on Cantlay and Morikawa were around 12-1. Now they are around 1.2-1 for each of them. If you were aware of Rahm’s withdrawal before the odds were updated that was quite a + EV opportunity.

Interesting solutions so far from the books on this situation:

https://sports.yahoo.com/sportsbook-pays-rahm-bets-covid-005809238.html

https://www.vsin.com/how-sportsbooks-are-treating-jon-rahms-withdrawal/

Now if they would have DQ'ed Medina Spirit at the top of the stretch in the derby my bet on Mandaloun would have cashed :)

Some sportsbooks are treating the situation as a win (William Hill/BetMGM) and others a loss (Circa/Westgate).
https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/betmgm-william-hill-grade-memorial-bets-on-jon-rahm-as-winners-2371960/

I am fine with whatever the books decide. The ones who recognize the unique situation and resolve the bets in a bettor friendly way certainly deserve some kudos. :)

Quote: billryan

Sux to be him.

will suck more after Rahm learns it was a false positive.

So now there is a timeline. His test came back positive at around 4pm, with over TWO HOURS remaining in his round. The chickenshit PGA tour officials DID NOTHING other than order the test to be repeated, which it was and was of course confirmed positive two hours later. So whoever had access to the first test information had a HUGE betting opportunity, which I’m guessing would be illegal? I don’t have exact numbers, but without Rahm in the event, the EV on $1000 bet on either Morikawa or Cantlay had to approach $5-$10k.

If the PGA actually cared about ‘protecting’ anyone, once the first test came back positive Rham should have been forced to play alone. And frankly, he should have been allowed to play solo on Sunday, but that’s another discussion.

Quote: SOOPOO

If the PGA actually cared about ‘protecting’ anyone, once the first test came back positive Rham should have been forced to play alone. And frankly, he should have been allowed to play solo on Sunday, but that’s another discussion.

That makes sense to me on both counts.

A 6 stroke lead going into final round, everyone else was playing for 2nd place.

Has he been vaccinated? Very slim chance he becomes positive if he was vaccinated. That could be a 1.6 Million dollar decision.

Quote: Vegasrider

A 6 stroke lead going into final round, everyone else was playing for 2nd place.

Has he been vaccinated? Very slim chance he becomes positive if he was vaccinated. That could be a 1.6 Million dollar decision.

He had not been vaccinated until Tuesday, AFTER he was exposed to a person who had COVID-19. He was eligible to be vaccinated at some point in April, but chose not to be. The money is really not relevant, in that he likely earns upwards of $20 million a year between tournament winnings and endorsements. The title would be worth more to him in prestige, world ranking, etc. It is amazing how stupid these athletes can be.

Quote: SOOPOO

He had not been vaccinated until Tuesday, AFTER he was exposed to a person who had COVID-19.

It is amazing how stupid these athletes can be.

Yes.

Quote: SOOPOO

He had not been vaccinated until Tuesday, AFTER he was exposed to a person who had COVID-19.

It is amazing how stupid these athletes can be.

Imho, Yes.

Nice of sportsbook’s to do this. Of course with MGM the biggest bet anybody had was probably $8. A 6 shot lead equals probably a 90% chance he wins. Would have been interesting if it was 5 shots or 2 shots. As was previously mentioned why don’t they just let him play by himself? No one would need to be within 50 feet of him. Given everything everybody has been through it’s hard to believe anyone would object to this. Imagine if this was the US Open.

I thought it would be nice if whoever did win might donate the difference between first and second to a charity of Rahm’s choice.

Quote: Sandybestdog

Nice of sportsbook’s to do this. Of course with MGM the biggest bet anybody had was probably $8. A 6 shot lead equals probably a 90% chance he wins. Would have been interesting if it was 5 shots or 2 shots. As was previously mentioned why don’t they just let him play by himself? No one would need to be within 50 feet of him. Given everything everybody has been through it’s hard to believe anyone would object to this. Imagine if this was the US Open.

I thought it would be nice if whoever did win might donate the difference between first and second to a charity of Rahm’s choice.

Embarrassingly, I listen to a lot of golf talk on Sirius. The COVID-19 protocol they had in place was quite complicated, had to be approved by the PGA tour, the players, the venues, and the state and local governments where the events were taking place. They all agreed that if you tested positive you were out. If Rahm wasn't stupid enough to not be vaccinated the rules in place would have meant he would not need to be tested.
Whoever earned being in the final group with Rahm would be placed at a disadvantage by not getting to play with him, if they allowed Rahm to play alone. There is an added pressure if your opponent starts closing the gap and he is staring at you!. Google Lexi Thompson collapse from this very weekend!

I will say this, Rahm handled the situation with class.

Great idea on the charity idea! Cantlay I would bet 'only' makes between $5 and $10 million a year, so giving $1 million to charity is a big ask...... sort of.....

Stations treated Rahm bets as a loss (at least in matchups).

Based on my understanding of the situation there was little wiggle room for the PGA to do much. Soopoo has already mentioned some of the important details. I guess they could have told him right away and not waited for a second confirmed test of the same sample. There are competitive concerns to consider as well, but I would be speculating if they were actually part of the reason he was able to finish the 3rd round. Lots of $$ and Fedex cup points were lost by Rahm because of this. As mentioned, he likely could have avoided all of this if he had been vaccinated.

I wonder how he will perform at the US Open? Another interesting story line to follow @ Torrey Pines in ~2 weeks...

Quote: Sandybestdog

Nice of sportsbook’s to do this.

Would be much nicer if they instead weren't trying for a 40% hold on these future bets. The top sportsbooks paid out on Rahm bettors. So long as they bet the "no". Why won't WH and the others offer that as well?

I'm going to do a blog entry on my adventures with fantasy anomalies, but I'll pass this part of it along.

I plugged in a fantasy team on Fanduel for the Memorial. You get six golfers with salary cap rules. So I put in my lineup and check at 3 AM the day of the tournament to make sure all of my guys are a go.

I wake up after the tournament starts, and Jason Day evidently decided his back wasn't up for it in warm-ups and withdrew. So now I'm down to five golfers, which means it's impossible to win and not terribly likely to cash.

Note: Interestingly, my Day to win the tournament wager at a sports book was refunded because he did not tee off, but my Fanduel team was stuck with him. Once his tee time passed, I could not sub somebody else in for him.

Anyway, I have only five golfers, but after two days of the Fanduel contest, I am in the money and threatening to dent the top 10. And that's because Rahm scored more points in three days for me than any golfer I have ever taken in these contests. And then he gets disqualified for Covid. LOL.

So I finish up with four golfers and still almost cash...but not quite.

Pretty funny. That took some work.