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moses
moses 
Joined: Sep 23, 2013
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June 2nd, 2021 at 10:28:55 AM permalink
The Colorado Rockies are 17-12 at home and 4-22 on the road. Bet on them at home and against them on the road? You're 39-16 which is 4 games better than the best team in MLB.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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June 2nd, 2021 at 10:44:07 AM permalink
Quote: moses

The Colorado Rockies are 17-12 at home and 4-22 on the road. Bet on them at home and against them on the road? You're 39-16 which is 4 games better than the best team in MLB.



I will bet you that they do not continue that pace of winning at 76% for the rest of the season using that system
Order from chaos
moses
moses 
Joined: Sep 23, 2013
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June 2nd, 2021 at 11:09:18 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I will bet you that they do not continue that pace of uwinning at 76% for the rest of the season using that system



Highly unlikely. But there is some logic to it. Thin air at a mile high city. Bad team. Some teams build to win at home.

I wonder what a $1000 per game bet would've produced over the first 55 games.

A weird year. Tampa 20-8 on road? Boston 16-9 ? A's 15-8. But all 3 are average at home.

Padres and Giants are the only two teams winning significantly both home and away.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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June 2nd, 2021 at 11:18:03 AM permalink
Quote: moses

Highly unlikely. But there is some logic to it. Thin air at a mile high city. Bad team. Some teams build to win at home.

I wonder what a $1000 per game bet would've produced over the first 55 games.

A weird year. Tampa 20-8 on road? Boston 16-9 ? A's 15-8. But all 3 are average at home.

Padres and Giants are the only two teams winning significantly both home and away.



You should be looking forward not backward. What would a $1000 a game bet lose for the rest of the season.
Order from chaos
moses
moses 
Joined: Sep 23, 2013
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June 2nd, 2021 at 11:24:59 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

You should be looking forward not backward. What would a $1000 a game bet lose for the rest of the season.


We shall see. If I "knew" the answer to that question, Id be betting a lot more than a grand per game. There used to be a website that provided that stat. But I cant remember it. Generally speaking, most teams play true to form after the 1/4 pole of the season.

Typically, a team winning 60% at home and 50% away equates to a 90 win season and that usually makes the playoffs.

So looking back at stats is looking forward to upcoming bets. Pitchers play big part as well.
Last edited by: moses on Jun 2, 2021
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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June 2nd, 2021 at 12:38:45 PM permalink
Baseball actually has a moderate ‘rules’ advantage for being the home team by batting second. The strategy advantages have to be worth a few games a year over 162 games.

Hockey home team has advantage of ‘last change’ which I would guess (total guess, actually) is worth maybe 1 game over 82 game season.

Football and basketball don’t have any built in rule advantage, but of course have a home court/field advantage in familiarity, fans, referees affected, etc....
moses
moses 
Joined: Sep 23, 2013
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June 2nd, 2021 at 12:56:42 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Baseball actually has a moderate ‘rules’ advantage for being the home team by batting second. The strategy advantages have to be worth a few games a year over 162 games.

Hockey home team has advantage of ‘last change’ which I would guess (total guess, actually) is worth maybe 1 game over 82 game season.

Football and basketball don’t have any built in rule advantage, but of course have a home court/field advantage in familiarity, fans, referees affected, etc....


Very informative post. 🖒

Exactly why I didnt bet during covid.
moses
moses 
Joined: Sep 23, 2013
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June 29th, 2021 at 9:00:50 PM permalink
Quote: moses

The Colorado Rockies are 17-12 at home and 4-22 on the road. Bet on them at home and against them on the road? You're 39-16 which is 4 games better than the best team in MLB.


Dang. Now they are 58-22. 19-6 since june when i posted.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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June 29th, 2021 at 11:26:57 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Baseball actually has a moderate ‘rules’ advantage for being the home team by batting second. The strategy advantages have to be worth a few games a year over 162 games.

Hockey home team has advantage of ‘last change’ which I would guess (total guess, actually) is worth maybe 1 game over 82 game season.

Football and basketball don’t have any built in rule advantage, but of course have a home court/field advantage in familiarity, fans, referees affected, etc....



I'm not sure there is an advantage to batting second. I'd say the home teams advantage is they can build their team for the ballpark.
moses
moses 
Joined: Sep 23, 2013
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July 18th, 2021 at 9:47:17 AM permalink
Reditz writes:
Oh, almost forgot, blackhole. Moses also made quite a few comments regarding sports betting. You might want to search out and evaluate those comments. Now if you want to argue that moses' credibility when it comes to sports betting has no relationship to his blackjack credibility, be my guest.

Sportsbetting requires tons of research, patience, and discipline. I look for value. Have no idea who will win.

The Colorado Rockies are an example of hidden value this season.
Last edited by: moses on Jul 18, 2021

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