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Wizard
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April 2nd, 2021 at 7:29:45 PM permalink
Somebody asked me what is more likely:

A) Justin Verlander throwing 100 straight strikes.
B) Steph Curry making 100 straight free throws.
C) Justin Tucker hitting 100 straight 40-yard field goal attempts.

Here is some data to help.

In 2019 Verlander threw 3448 pitches, of which 2361 were strikes (68.5%) (source).

In the 2019/20 season, Curry had a free throw percentage of 93.1% (source).

Statistics for Tucker 2012-2020 (source).
30 - 39 yards: 86 out of 89 made (96.63%)
40 - 49 yards: 87 out of 96 made (90.63%)

If we simply take the average of the two averages, we get 93.63%. However, I tend to think the actual percentage is probably a bit higher. The 40-49 yard range will include some in the high 40's, where the chances of success start dropping off fast. Here are some statistics of average success rate by distance.

Yards Percent Made
20 99.51%
21 97.67%
22 98.02%
23 98.19%
24 94.62%
25 99.23%
26 96.88%
27 97.00%
28 95.00%
29 94.36%
30 93.07%
31 94.49%
32 94.62%
33 94.10%
34 86.04%
35 90.55%
36 87.76%
37 84.75%
38 83.29%
39 85.77%
40 85.21%
41 83.51%
42 81.65%
43 77.04%
44 80.31%
45 78.82%
46 73.78%
47 75.09%
48 68.60%
49 71.22%
50 71.05%
51 67.10%
52 59.92%
53 69.16%
54 61.27%
55 53.57%
56 59.32%
57 54.05%
58 36.67%
59 55.56%
60 30.00%
61 31.25%
62 28.57%
63 25.00%
64 33.33%
65 0.00%
66 0.00%
67 0.00%
68 0.00%
69 0.00%
70 0.00%
71 0.00%


Source for table.

Doing parabolic regression, I find the probability of making a 40-yard field goal for all kickers to 85.83%. The probability of success for all field goals in the 30 to 39 range is 89.32%. So, the 40-yard success percentage is 96% that of the 30-39 percenage.

Applying that 96% to Tucker, we get 96.63% * 96% = 92.86%.

So, I'm going with Tucker, but it's close. A difference of 0.24%.

The following table shows the probability of a single success and 100, which takes the single trial probability to the100th power.

Player Prob. Success. Prob. 100 successes
Justin Verlander 68.50% 0.000000
Steph Curry 93.10% 0.000785
Justin Tucker 92.86% 0.000604



Verlander's strike percentage doesn't seem to be in contention, but I wonder if a strong pitcher like him deliberately throws some balls to be more unpredictable. A question I throw out to the baseball experts of the forum.

The question for the poll is who would you bet on?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Zcore13
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April 2nd, 2021 at 7:37:41 PM permalink
Verlander for sure throws many pitches for balls on purpose.
Most pitches are meant to be on the borderline of a strike and ball.. probably only 20-30% are purposeful pitches made to get a strike with little to no chance of a ball. There is no doubt in my mind he could throw 100 strikes in a row if he wanted to.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
billryan
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April 2nd, 2021 at 9:40:06 PM permalink
If he doesn't have to worry about someone hitting it, a hundred strikes would be pretty easy.
Does the FG attempts include a snap and a holder? That complicates things.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Keeneone
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April 2nd, 2021 at 9:53:59 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

If he doesn't have to worry about someone hitting it, a hundred strikes would be pretty easy.
Does the FG attempts include a snap and a holder? That complicates things.


Seems he is talking about real live in game action. If it was practice, I would bet all three could complete it.

Bartolo Colon once threw 38 consecutive strikes in a game (according to wiki):
Consecutive strikes thrown (since pitch-by-pitch record keeping was introduced in 1988; includes foul balls and balls-in-play)
38 – Bartolo Colón, Oakland Athletics – April 18, 2012
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_individual_streaks
Cool article about it:
https://www.sbnation.com/2012/4/19/2960797/bartolo-colon-38-straight-strikes-record
SOOPOO
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April 3rd, 2021 at 4:42:41 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Somebody asked me what is more likely:

A) Justin Verlander throwing 100 straight strikes.
B) Steph Curry making 100 straight free throws.
C) Justin Tucker hitting 100 straight 40-yard field goal attempts.

Here is some data to help.

In 2019 Verlander threw 3448 pitches, of which 2361 were strikes (68.5%) (source).

In the 2019/20 season, Curry had a free throw percentage of 93.1% (source).

Statistics for Tucker 2012-2020 (source).
30 - 39 yards: 86 out of 89 made (96.63%)
40 - 49 yards: 87 out of 96 made (90.63%)

If we simply take the average of the two averages, we get 93.63%. However, I tend to think the actual percentage is probably a bit higher. The 40-49 yard range will include some in the high 40's, where the chances of success start dropping off fast. Here are some statistics of average success rate by distance.

Yards Percent Made
20 99.51%
21 97.67%
22 98.02%
23 98.19%
24 94.62%
25 99.23%
26 96.88%
27 97.00%
28 95.00%
29 94.36%
30 93.07%
31 94.49%
32 94.62%
33 94.10%
34 86.04%
35 90.55%
36 87.76%
37 84.75%
38 83.29%
39 85.77%
40 85.21%
41 83.51%
42 81.65%
43 77.04%
44 80.31%
45 78.82%
46 73.78%
47 75.09%
48 68.60%
49 71.22%
50 71.05%
51 67.10%
52 59.92%
53 69.16%
54 61.27%
55 53.57%
56 59.32%
57 54.05%
58 36.67%
59 55.56%
60 30.00%
61 31.25%
62 28.57%
63 25.00%
64 33.33%
65 0.00%
66 0.00%
67 0.00%
68 0.00%
69 0.00%
70 0.00%
71 0.00%


Source for table.

Doing parabolic regression, I find the probability of making a 40-yard field goal for all kickers to 85.83%. The probability of success for all field goals in the 30 to 39 range is 89.32%. So, the 40-yard success percentage is 96% that of the 30-39 percenage.

Applying that 96% to Tucker, we get 96.63% * 96% = 92.86%.

So, I'm going with Tucker, but it's close. A difference of 0.24%.

The following table shows the probability of a single success and 100, which takes the single trial probability to the100th power.

Player Prob. Success. Prob. 100 successes
Justin Verlander 68.50% 0.000000
Steph Curry 93.10% 0.000785
Justin Tucker 92.86% 0.000604



Verlander's strike percentage doesn't seem to be in contention, but I wonder if a strong pitcher like him deliberately throws some balls to be more unpredictable. A question I throw out to the baseball experts of the forum.

The question for the poll is who would you bet on?



In game conditions? Or as a stunt? 100 consecutive strikes never happens in game conditions, but would be possible in a ‘test’. There are dozens if not hundreds of basketball players that in practice I’m sure have 100 + free throws in a row. I have never made 70 but made it into the 60’s many times. I’d say least likely is Tucker hitting 100 in a row. But it would not be a shock if he could do it on a practice field.

So real life game conditions..... Curry/Tucker/Verlander
Practice conditions. Verlander/Curry/Tucker
Wizard
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April 3rd, 2021 at 6:09:24 AM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Seems he is talking about real live in game action.



Here is some discussion of this at Barstool Sports. That doesn't say whether the contest is in real games or a demonstration. However, I assume it means in real games and no change in behavior to influence the outcome.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ThatDonGuy
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April 3rd, 2021 at 6:43:28 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here is some discussion of this at Barstool Sports. That doesn't say whether the contest is in real games or a demonstration. However, I assume it means in real games and no change in behavior to influence the outcome.


In real games? Curry. The other two have to deal with things like wind. Verlander also has to deal with who's making the call as to whether a pitch is a ball or a strike, and Tucker's success depends a lot on the player holding the ball.
SOOPOO
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April 3rd, 2021 at 7:05:04 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: Wizard

Here is some discussion of this at Barstool Sports. That doesn't say whether the contest is in real games or a demonstration. However, I assume it means in real games and no change in behavior to influence the outcome.


In real games? Curry. The other two have to deal with things like wind. Verlander also has to deal with who's making the call as to whether a pitch is a ball or a strike, and Tucker's success depends a lot on the player holding the ball.



All true. In a real baseball game there are probably a dozen pitches that the pitcher is not even trying to throw a strike. I would be surprised if Verlander has exceeded 25 consecutive strikes. By the way, if a batter swings and makes contact into fair territory, is that a strike even if the pitch was low and would not have been a strike even if the batter had not swung? Actually, come to think of it, that is clearly not a strike. Any ball hit into fair territory is not a strike. So for all intents and purposes, 100 will never happen.
Mission146
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April 3rd, 2021 at 8:35:29 AM permalink
I'm not a baseball expert, but pitchers certainly don't intend for them all to be right in the middle of the strike zone. I guess the probability question needs to qualify whether we are looking at it in context or in isolation. Point being, if Verlander's ONLY goal is to put one in the strike zone (even if he has to throw reasonably fast) then I'd say he does that nearly 100% of the time.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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April 3rd, 2021 at 8:38:05 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: Wizard

Here is some discussion of this at Barstool Sports. That doesn't say whether the contest is in real games or a demonstration. However, I assume it means in real games and no change in behavior to influence the outcome.


In real games? Curry. The other two have to deal with things like wind. Verlander also has to deal with who's making the call as to whether a pitch is a ball or a strike, and Tucker's success depends a lot on the player holding the ball.



I'd agree with this, though my concern would be those occasional situations in which it might be strategically sound to try to miss a foul shot so your team gets the rebound---hopefully. I don't watch basketball, so I couldn't even guess whether or not that happens on as many as 1 in 100 attempts.

The difference with Field Goals being, of course, you'd never intentionally try to miss one. As has been mentioned, FG's have the misfortune of sometimes having variables unrelated to anything the kicker himself does wrong.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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April 3rd, 2021 at 8:39:20 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


All true. In a real baseball game there are probably a dozen pitches that the pitcher is not even trying to throw a strike. I would be surprised if Verlander has exceeded 25 consecutive strikes. By the way, if a batter swings and makes contact into fair territory, is that a strike even if the pitch was low and would not have been a strike even if the batter had not swung? Actually, come to think of it, that is clearly not a strike. Any ball hit into fair territory is not a strike. So for all intents and purposes, 100 will never happen.



For the purposes of the question, I think (if I were making a bet) that I would demand it be limited to called strikes or called balls. IOW, fouls are not strikes (for the purpose of the bet) and hits do not matter.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Keeneone
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April 3rd, 2021 at 8:51:27 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO


All true. In a real baseball game there are probably a dozen pitches that the pitcher is not even trying to throw a strike. I would be surprised if Verlander has exceeded 25 consecutive strikes. By the way, if a batter swings and makes contact into fair territory, is that a strike even if the pitch was low and would not have been a strike even if the batter had not swung? Actually, come to think of it, that is clearly not a strike. Any ball hit into fair territory is not a strike. So for all intents and purposes, 100 will never happen.


My understanding is all foul balls are technically strikes. But they do not count as a third strike to record an out. Regardless of pitch location, all balls put into play or fouled off are strikes.
Mosca
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April 3rd, 2021 at 8:58:45 AM permalink
I'll go with Curry, no one is trying to stop him and he isn't relying on others to make it happen.
A falling knife has no handle.
SOOPOO
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April 3rd, 2021 at 9:00:51 AM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

My understanding is all foul balls are technically strikes. But they do not count as a third strike to record an out. Regardless of pitch location, all balls put into play or fouled off are strikes.



So you are saying if a batter hits a ball that would have been called a ball for a home run it counts as a strike? The question, as many hypotheticals, needed so much more to be specified before a reasonable discussion could take place.
Keeneone
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April 3rd, 2021 at 9:13:19 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

So you are saying if a batter hits a ball that would have been called a ball for a home run it counts as a strike? The question, as many hypotheticals, needed so much more to be specified before a reasonable discussion could take place.


Yes, home runs are strikes.
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/strike-zone
Mission146
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April 3rd, 2021 at 9:18:39 AM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Yes, home runs are strikes.
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/strike-zone



Oh, I'd like to change the terms of my hypothetical bet so as not to disadvantage myself.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Keeneone
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April 3rd, 2021 at 9:35:09 AM permalink
Simply put, any pitched ball that hits the bat is gonna be a strike, as well as the strikes called by the umpire in the strike zone.

Here is an example of 11 strikes in a row in the longest at bat in MLB (on record since 1988):
https://www.mlb.com/news/brandon-belt-has-historic-21-pitch-at-bat-c273402646
Looking at the strike zone chart/image, after the ninth pitch (ball 3 and count at 3-2) the batter fouled off 10 in a row (all strikes). The eleventh pitch was put into play (strike) and resulted in a fly ball out. Thus 11 strikes in a row.

Even bounced pitches put into play are strikes.


The baseball option seems very, very, very difficult to ever see happening.
Wizard
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April 3rd, 2021 at 9:45:00 AM permalink
Based on the discussion, I think the question at hand is more reasonable if we assume the effort is under controlled demonstration conditions. No wind, no pressure, etc.. However, maybe there should be a minimum speed to the pitch. Something reasonable in MLB. This article says the average fast ball speed in MLB in 2019 was 93.1 MLB. So, perhaps, a minimum in the high 80's?

I'm hardly a baseball expert, but I've observed pitchers in the bull pen practicing and it seems they can land it in the catcher's glove every time.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Keeneone
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April 3rd, 2021 at 9:45:11 AM permalink
Trivia question. Was this a strike?

No. It was a dead ball/no pitch.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_pitch
One of the most famous no pitch calls occurred when Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Randy Johnson hit a bird with a pitch.

----------

My money would go on S. Curry. He had a streak end @ 80 in a row this year. The NBA record is 97. Definitely doable but very difficult.
https://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2021/1/4/22212813/steph-curry-straight-free-throws-made-golden-state-warriors-michael-williams
Wizard
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April 3rd, 2021 at 9:50:19 AM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Trivia question. Was this a strike?



That is a good question! Again, I'm hardly a baseball expert, but seems the fair thing to just not count it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Gandler
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April 3rd, 2021 at 10:12:30 AM permalink
I would think the pitching would be the most challenging. Its seems like this is the only event where you can be stopped from no fault of your own (even if you are throwing perfect in the strike zone it can be hit or bunted). Also, this seems like the most physically intensive. This just seems like the one with the most variable (specifically you are essentially facing a batter).

I am unsure of the other two, both seem like they would be easier. But, free throws seems like it would be easiest. I have not played basketball in years, but if I had a goal to throw 100 free throws consecutively (not in the context of a game as a single event where I have unlimited time), I could probably train to it (it probably would take some time, but I feel its easily doable). I feel that almost anyone could if they had the discipline to train (again assuming its independent games, just as a single event). I am sure a pro NBA player could do this with little preparation. (In fact a quick google search shows that the timed record for non-pros is 52 in one minute, with many breaking 50 in one minute, so if high schoolers can easily do 50+ in 1 minute, having unlimited time and throwing at your own pace, 100 in any period of time seems very doable, especially for a pro). This seems like it must be the easiest.
Mission146
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April 3rd, 2021 at 10:28:00 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Based on the discussion, I think the question at hand is more reasonable if we assume the effort is under controlled demonstration conditions. No wind, no pressure, etc.. However, maybe there should be a minimum speed to the pitch. Something reasonable in MLB. This article says the average fast ball speed in MLB in 2019 was 93.1 MLB. So, perhaps, a minimum in the high 80's?

I'm hardly a baseball expert, but I've observed pitchers in the bull pen practicing and it seems they can land it in the catcher's glove every time.



Oh yeah. No batter, set strike zone? Give me Verlander throwing 100 strikes in a row, no question. I'll take the basketball player (forget who was mentioned) as a fairly close second.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Keeneone
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April 3rd, 2021 at 10:52:28 AM permalink
I looked up some of the football kicking records:
Most consecutive field goals made: 44, Adam Vinatieri, Oct 4, 2015 – Oct 20, 2016[1]:543[15]
Most consecutive field goals made (postseason): 23, Mason Crosby, Jan 15, 2011 — Jan 22, 2017[16][17]
Most consecutive field goals made (regular season and postseason combined): 46, Gary Anderson, Dec 15, 1997 – Jan 17, 1999
----------

If the question shifts to controlled practice conditions, Curry is still the most likely to occur. Heck he apparently has made over 100 - 3 pointers in a row in practice.
billryan
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April 3rd, 2021 at 11:00:36 AM permalink
A successful field goal depends on three players on one team doing their job and eleven players on the other not achieving their goal of blocking it.
I'm not sure how you could compare that to the other two.
In game like conditions, the free throws would be the easiest.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Mission146
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April 3rd, 2021 at 11:18:28 AM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Trivia question. Was this a strike?


No. It was a dead ball/no pitch.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_pitch
One of the most famous no pitch calls occurred when Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Randy Johnson hit a bird with a pitch.

----------

My money would go on S. Curry. He had a streak end @ 80 in a row this year. The NBA record is 97. Definitely doable but very difficult.
https://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2021/1/4/22212813/steph-curry-straight-free-throws-made-golden-state-warriors-michael-williams



Looks like a ball, low and away.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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April 3rd, 2021 at 11:21:37 AM permalink
The free throw thing is kind of, when you talk about practice, your goal is to make the free throw. I don't know that there is any evidence for a pitcher whose only objective is to get it in the strike zone.

The strike zone is a pretty big place if that's the only thing you're trying to do.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
billryan
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April 3rd, 2021 at 3:51:57 PM permalink
I think many "control type" pitchers could throw 100 strikes in their sleep.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Keeneone
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April 3rd, 2021 at 4:46:13 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

That is a good question! Again, I'm hardly a baseball expert, but seems the fair thing to just not count it.


Yes, it was called a no pitch/dead ball. Of course one could argue it was technically a "bird strike". :)
TomG
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April 3rd, 2021 at 7:05:42 PM permalink
If the ball hits the bat, the pitch was a strike. That was established over 100 years ago.

In game conditions, I could never imagine any pitcher throwing 100 consecutive strikes. Even if they aren't attempting to throw the ball outside of the strike zone, they are usually trying to throw on the very edge, which makes it much more likely to miss than a kicker trying to kick it right down the middle. Then there are the times they either deliberately throw it outside the strikezone, or are ambivalent about it

100 40-yard field goals is could never happen, because kickers don't get to choose the distance. Even if we expanded it to be 40-yards and closer, it would still take about four full seasons to get that many attempts. Quick research shows the NFL record is only 70, by Tucker.

100 consecutive free throws should eventually happen in the NBA. Current record is 97. This year there are eight players over 90% and they should each get a few hundred attempts. There are times free-throw shooters will deliberately miss, but those are rare.

In sterile, laboratory conditions, I would think the kicker has the best chance of 100 straight, if given one chance. No defense, no blocking, no snapping, no holder, no clock, no weather, etc., , should all help. Compared to the other two, the ratio of target size to ball size is bar far the largest. It is also is using the largest muscles, with the least finesse of movement. That makes it more forgiving when the athlete does mess up.. The slightest error in knee bend or wrist flick and can have enough of an effect on where the basketball goes when someone shoots it.
IndyJeffrey
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April 4th, 2021 at 4:29:53 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Somebody asked me what is more likely:

A) Justin Verlander throwing 100 straight strikes.
B) Steph Curry making 100 straight free throws.
C) Justin Tucker hitting 100 straight 40-yard field goal attempts.



We probably all agree that if the questions was amended with "...in a regular season game." or "...in practice." the percentages would be different; but would your wager be different?
ThatDonGuy
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April 4th, 2021 at 7:58:26 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Based on the discussion, I think the question at hand is more reasonable if we assume the effort is under controlled demonstration conditions. No wind, no pressure, etc.. However, maybe there should be a minimum speed to the pitch. Something reasonable in MLB. This article says the average fast ball speed in MLB in 2019 was 93.1 MLB. So, perhaps, a minimum in the high 80's?


I'd still go with Curry, as muscle fatigue is going to affect the pitcher / kicker a lot more than the free throw shooter.

If you can spread it out over multiple days, I'd say Verlander.
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