rumba434
rumba434
Joined: May 13, 2020
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September 9th, 2020 at 7:40:35 AM permalink
What is the best long term strategy to make profit from this offer?

I will use European odds (1.2 means you get your stake back, plus 0.2 of it as winnings), and would appreciate all replies using the same odds format.

If you bet £10 cash on a fourfold or more accumulator with each leg being odds of 1.2 or higher, and exactly one leg loses then you get a £10 free bet. Free bets do not return stakes; for the purposes of this thread, let's say the free bet has £8 cash value.

The bookmaker generally has an overround of about 8%, (You would need to bet £108 to cover all options on a single to ensure a £100 return), so the £10 cash bet will be worth approx £7.35 (10/(1.08^4)) on a 4 fold or £6.81 on a 5 fold immediately after striking it. I am assuming no sports expertise for the punter.

You can attempt it as many times you like in a day but you can only successfully claim it once per day.

Assuming a player stops when he acquires a free bet but keeps on going if he wins the bet or at least 2 legs fail, what odds should he use to maximise long term value?
Last edited by: rumba434 on Sep 9, 2020
sabre
sabre 
Joined: Aug 16, 2010
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September 9th, 2020 at 8:38:25 AM permalink
The best strategy is to bet a 4 team parlay with all legs as close to 1.2 as possible. Bet one parlay at a time. If you know it's lost, bet another. Repeat.
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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September 9th, 2020 at 3:19:32 PM permalink
Quote: sabre

The best strategy is to bet a 4 team parlay with all legs as close to 1.2 as possible. Bet one parlay at a time. If you know it's lost, bet another. Repeat.

True. But when playing the free bet, you want odds as high as possible. Like 8.0 for instance
Itís all about making that GTA
sabre
sabre 
Joined: Aug 16, 2010
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September 9th, 2020 at 4:20:25 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

True. But when playing the free bet, you want odds as high as possible. Like 8.0 for instance



He stated that freebets are worth 80% of face value. So he knows this.

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