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billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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November 7th, 2020 at 3:43:29 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

49% is a plurality. ie Biden 49, Trump 47, none of these 4.



No Blue guy wins Nevada without winning Clark, without a major third party vote. In this two man race, team blue needs to rack up votes in Clark and hope the rest of the state doesn't show up in force.
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
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November 7th, 2020 at 3:54:05 PM permalink
I think Nevada has one of the largest libertarian party contingents in the US, but still wouldnít constitute a major third party vote. Gaining a small amount of traction as a legitimate third option though and will probably continue to do so as people become dissatisfied with the choices provided, won a seat running only with libertarian party designation in Wyoming in this election. Last two presidential elections have been their highest two vote totals, topping out at about 3.5% in 2016.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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November 8th, 2020 at 5:43:36 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

I think Nevada has one of the largest libertarian party contingents in the US, but still wouldnít constitute a major third party vote.

Doesn't have to be a major thorn, a small one will always do just as well.
I wantd to declare myself a Libertine, but Libertarian was as close as i could get. once there, its not the numbers,just the drain on funds.
Lando
Lando
Joined: Aug 14, 2014
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November 8th, 2020 at 6:40:35 AM permalink
So what do you all say about the "polling industry" forgetting the other fraud? By the way, I would not have wanted my man from earlier in the thread to go away for any amount of time had we "wagered".

The more important issue is when books grade this wager, not when news networks do.

For example, Wizard, what were your bets rules on grading/resolving? What if SCOTUS comes in and confirms the fraudulent votes?
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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November 8th, 2020 at 6:54:30 AM permalink
Quote: Lando

So what do you all say about the "polling industry" forgetting the other fraud? By the way, I would not have wanted my man from earlier in the thread to go away for any amount of time had we "wagered".

The more important issue is when books grade this wager, not when news networks do.

For example, Wizard, what were your bets rules on grading/resolving? What if SCOTUS comes in and confirms the fraudulent votes?



Trump is at 10 cents on predictit. Thereís still a lot of money out there for you to make if you are right.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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November 8th, 2020 at 8:51:30 AM permalink
Quote: Lando

So what do you all say about the "polling industry" forgetting the other fraud? By the way, I would not have wanted my man from earlier in the thread to go away for any amount of time had we "wagered".

The more important issue is when books grade this wager, not when news networks do.

For example, Wizard, what were your bets rules on grading/resolving? What if SCOTUS comes in and confirms the fraudulent votes?



Not the Wizard.... but of course the bet is not resolved yet. I believe the bets are on who will win the election. Not a single state has certified its votes yet. (I think?). I believe the bets resolve on December 12, when the electors vote for President. Itís not close, but if it was 270-268 Iíd want to wait until the votes were cast.

(God forbid), if SCOTUS disqualified enough votes to change the result, then that is the final result. You would win your bet as the Democrats burned the country down, while looting along the way.

Edit..... Iíll take my suspension gracefully!
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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November 8th, 2020 at 9:46:51 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Not the Wizard.... but of course the bet is not resolved yet. I believe the bets are on who will win the election. Not a single state has certified its votes yet. (I think?). I believe the bets resolve on December 12, when the electors vote for President. Itís not close, but if it was 270-268 Iíd want to wait until the votes were cast.

(God forbid), if SCOTUS disqualified enough votes to change the result, then that is the final result. You would win your bet as the Democrats burned the country down, while looting along the way.

Edit..... Iíll take my suspension gracefully!

See you in 3 days.
Note. I also deem Lando's post as worthy of suspension, but he recently had an unintended sleepover on his last suspension, so I'll treat this as 'time served'
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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November 8th, 2020 at 11:18:06 AM permalink
i do not expect burning and lootig an have NEVER seen any differences between a democrat ad a republican, but if widespread looting and burning does take place, isure would welcome ALL POSTERS VIEWS ON THE EVENT.
terapined
terapined
Joined: Dec 1, 2012
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November 8th, 2020 at 12:08:29 PM permalink
Quote: Lando

So what do you all say about the "polling industry" forgetting the other fraud?


Polling is here to stay
It's a free country
As long as the country stays free, polling will exist
You can believe the polls or not believe the polls
Its always been like that and always will
It is what it is.
Trying to predict an election before an election has been going on since the dawn of elections.

My Mom told me a story about Taiwan. Officials wanted to know where they stood in an election. They had teachers poll the students. The thinking, students vote exactly like their parents.

Bottom line. Everybody is looking for tools to predict an election. It simply comes with the territory of having an election. Its human nature
"Everybody's bragging and drinking that wine, I can tell the Queen of Diamonds by the way she shines, Come to Daddy on an inside straight, I got no chance of losing this time" -Grateful Dead- "Loser"
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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November 8th, 2020 at 1:05:21 PM permalink
Polling depends on the honesty of the people answering the questions. It's hard to get honest results when a large percentage of the respondents don't give accurate information.

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