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redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
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November 6th, 2020 at 6:59:56 AM permalink
Well, if trends hold up, I got two states wrong. I never thought Biden would win Georgia, and I thought Arizona was a toss-up, leaning to Trump. One of my sociologist friends had a good question -- to what degree did Trump's adversarial relationship with the McCain family and denigration of McCain cost him Arizona?

I had not considered that. It's an obvious variable, when you think about it.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
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Thanks for this post from:
FinsRule
November 6th, 2020 at 7:02:51 AM permalink
And while I'm at it, congrats to the Shackleford analysis, which motivated me to double my Biden investment. I had Biden at -130 from some time ago, but the Wizard's spiel made me more comfortable at a -190. I actually saw -180 at BetOnline the day before the election. In fact, they put out a general email to customers advertising the fact they had gotten all Trump money and they were down to -180.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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November 6th, 2020 at 7:14:55 AM permalink
Yes, Mike definitely gave me the final push I needed to make my 2nd big bet. Then when I saw -165 Election Day morning, I put more in.

A good win for me.
billryan
billryan
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November 6th, 2020 at 10:28:52 AM permalink
Quote: redietz

Well, if trends hold up, I got two states wrong. I never thought Biden would win Georgia, and I thought Arizona was a toss-up, leaning to Trump. One of my sociologist friends had a good question -- to what degree did Trump's adversarial relationship with the McCain family and denigration of McCain cost him Arizona?

I had not considered that. It's an obvious variable, when you think about it.



I know at least a dozen Vets who voted for Trump the first time and didn't this time, mostly because of McCain.
I wouldn't be surprised if that sentiment was shared by thousands of people statewide. It will be curious to see if the votes for President come in much lower than the hard-fought race for Senate.
What I found interesting is Mark Young is the third astronaut to be elected to the US Senate. Both are pretty exclusive clubs.

In Arizona, we have early voting, mail-in voting and same-day voting. Some interesting numbers from my country. Roughly 41,000 votes were early voting or mail-in, and the split was almost equal with Democrats getting some 19,000. Election Day saw almost 10,000 in-person votes, with well over three out of four being Republican. ( These figures were updated from my original post)
Arizona claims that three weeks of early voting actually cost less than having it all on one day. Here, they print ballots to order. You go in and give your address and the ballot for your area is created for you. They claim the savings from not creating all the extra ballots saves more than hiring people for three weeks.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
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OnceDearrdw4potus
November 6th, 2020 at 12:13:22 PM permalink
The most interesting direction going forward is that, in my opinion, Trump has the fate of the Republican party still in his hands. If he were to declare for 2024, the Republicans assuredly don't want him (or his daughter or sons) on the ticket. But if they team up to rebuff him, he can take his Trumpster army and the Q-Anon folks and form a third party, which would almost assure a burying of the Republican party for the next decade.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
jjjoooggg
jjjoooggg
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November 6th, 2020 at 12:34:37 PM permalink
My bookkeeper’s family all voted by mail. I voted in person. There was no line at thee registration desks. And maybe 5 ppl voting.
Born in Texas and lived in Texas my whole life.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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November 6th, 2020 at 2:02:20 PM permalink
Quote: redietz

The most interesting direction going forward is that, in my opinion, Trump has the fate of the Republican party still in his hands. If he were to declare for 2024, the Republicans assuredly don't want him (or his daughter or sons) on the ticket. But if they team up to rebuff him, he can take his Trumpster army and the Q-Anon folks and form a third party, which would almost assure a burying of the Republican party for the next decade.



And/but, there are other side effects as well. There are at least 2 Q believers who were just elected to congress. Reapportionment happens between this election and the next one. If you were the GA GOP, would you consider re-drawing the lines to make the outlier's position less stable even if she were nominally in your political party? That's what I would do, even to the point of allowing the seat to flip for 2 years in the (likely) lower turnout mid-term election.

Note to mods: I'm interested in the game theory and not the politics here. If I'm over the line, I'll happily accept redaction, retraction, or deletion as you see fit.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
billryan
billryan
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November 6th, 2020 at 2:18:49 PM permalink
If Georgia went blue, as it seems like it did, why would anyone think there isn't a good chance that the blue team wins both Senate seats in the January runoff election. 47+2-1=48. If they win the two special elections, 48+2=50, and the VP gets to cast the tiebreaking vote.
Can it happen? Yes. Will it happen? I'd like to see what sort of betting line comes out of this.
Could anyone imagine a decade ago that Arizona and Georgia might send four Blue guys to the US Senate?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
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Thanks for this post from:
SOOPOO
November 6th, 2020 at 2:47:28 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

If Georgia went blue, as it seems like it did, why would anyone think there isn't a good chance that the blue team wins both Senate seats in the January runoff election?



Based on non presidential races, it seems reasonable to believe for many it was more about wanting the current president out than shifting more democrat.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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November 6th, 2020 at 4:11:54 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Based on non presidential races, it seems reasonable to believe for many it was more about wanting the current president out than shifting more democrat.



The last Georgia Governors race was also razor-thin and supposedly most newcomers to the state are Team Blue. The counties around Atlanta are among the fastest-growing in the nation and the demographics ring blue.
You may well be correct, but this might energize one group more than the other.
I thought Mrs. Clinton would win in a walkover, so my picking is mixed, at best.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.

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