When Politics Isn't Politics; It's Gambling

The swings were phenomenal. I was checking Betonline.ag, which also kept their numbers up and live throughout the night. Their swings, although modest compared to Betfair, were much larger than I thought they would be.

There seemed to be an overreaction to Trump leading and then winning Florida, which I always expected.

Speaking of which, I am curious to see how I did in the prop contest I entered. You had to pick five money line props out of 15 and spread 1,000. I loaded up on Trump to win Florida at +110 and used 980 of my bankroll on that. My girlfriend loaded up on Trump to win Georgia at +110.

If any of the long shot props hit, then we will be beaten, but maybe still have a chance to cash. So my bankroll is going to double, basically. I'm wondering how many people did what I did, or if most people actually spread 200 per prop, in which case I beat them.

I thought the idea of Biden winning Florida or Texas or Georgia was pie in the sky. But he may still win Georgia.

Quote: Wizard

...a running tally...betting market....4:11[pm) 68%...7:16[pm] 23.8%...7:52[Wed am] 82.0%

Thanks. I always use betfair especially for TV reality show betting, and the swings can be huge. I don't think I've seen such a large handle, in the last day £70m has been matched. https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441

I hope this isn't political but the BBC, ITV, Sky have been stuck on 224/213 all morning ( https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/us2020/results ) whereas I noticed overnight Fox and CBS seemed to call earlier (238/213 https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results ). I'm guessing some play safe and don't call the result until they're more certain.

Quote: redietz

The swings were phenomenal. I was checking Betonline.ag, which also kept their numbers up and live throughout the night. Their swings, although modest compared to Betfair, were much larger than I thought they would be.

There seemed to be an overreaction to Trump leading and then winning Florida, which I always expected.

Speaking of which, I am curious to see how I did in the prop contest I entered. You had to pick five money line props out of 15 and spread 1,000. I loaded up on Trump to win Florida at +110 and used 980 of my bankroll on that. My girlfriend loaded up on Trump to win Georgia at +110.

If any of the long shot props hit, then we will be beaten, but maybe still have a chance to cash. So my bankroll is going to double, basically. I'm wondering how many people did what I did, or if most people actually spread 200 per prop, in which case I beat them.

I thought the idea of Biden winning Florida or Texas or Georgia was pie in the sky. But he may still win Georgia.

In the Fanduel contest I put 996 on Trump to win PA and 1 on 4 huge favorite props to win that all will win if NV holds for Biden. I honestly think I could win this whole thing.

What’s the safest site to make election bets?

Quote: FinsRule

In the Fanduel contest I put 996 on Trump to win PA and 1 on 4 huge favorite props to win that all will win if NV holds for Biden. I honestly think I could win this whole thing.

Good job. You could win the whole thing. What did you get for the Pennsylvania odds? That was a real good pick with Pennsylvania. When the Post Gazette (not the most conservative paper) came out and endorsed Trump, it probably did have an effect. I'm from Pennsylvania originally.

I remember a story about Washington County (very conservative county in PA) that appeared in Newsweek, I think. They were asking the Obama campaign people when they knew they had a winner, so one person told a story about going door to door to ask people who they planned to vote for. One woman in Washington County opens her door, the canvasser asks who they were voting for, and the woman yells to her husband in the back, "Honey, who are we voting for?" The guy, over the sound of a TV, yells back, "We're votin' for the n****r." That settled it for the canvasser as to who was going to win.

I got +225 on PA. I can’t see what the odds were on the ones I didn’t choose. Did any larger underdog come in that you can remember?

I see now how betting elections work. I'd definitely be gambling.

Quote: Lando

It's funny to me that people don't think something else is going on and the historical methods not only are wrong but they can't capture what and why; yet it's easy for us who see the fraud of the Nate Silver's of the world.

If you think Joe Biden/Kamala Harris ticket wins against an incumbent, you better be getting money. I can give you all sorts of historical precedents (Primary model, woman on ticket, incumbent) that are MAJOR factors that are being disregarded based on pure politics and propaganda. Still, I wouldn't make too much fun of a bet on them.

To suggest that Joe Biden is going to win 80+ elections out of 100 is pure insanity.

I'll come back either way, but it will be to gloat since this is by far the best bet of the year. If not for coronavirus, it would have been among the best bets of my lifetime (and I cashed Trump at 100-1 in 2015 and 4-1 before the 2016 election).

Wonder if this guy is coming back.

Come on Nevada people
Country is waiting on you
Any insight from anybody there on the vote count
Interesting how elections come down to one state and this time its Nevada.

So I just saw that one betting house is paying out on this early: https://twitter.com/sportsbetcomau/status/1324140973148942337

Not being a sportsbettor... how often does this kind of a thing happen?