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redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
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November 3rd, 2020 at 3:24:18 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Found someone yesterday willing to offer Biden -130 so plopped a large (for me) bet down.



That's what I laid about six weeks ago.

I wanted to mention -- the late surge of Trump money may be due to people getting better odds early (in this case, -130 on Biden), and they are hammering Trump late as a means to an optimal auto-profit. If I had mid four digits on up on Biden, that's what I would have done, but I have just three digits at the -130, so I'm not auto-profiting that.

I suspect the mega-wagers of a million pounds on up are primarily auto-profit hedges, more or less. Similar to money line moves in many Super Bowls where folks have one side as a long shot future.

Some people are (internationally) going to make a killing on this by laying -130 and coming back with a +180 or better. That's partly why volume will be through the roof. A lot of people have no risk and all profit.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 3rd, 2020 at 4:06:47 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Flip Nevada? I thought you guys went for Hillary in 2016?



You're right, my mistake. Make it a "must hold onto" for Biden.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 3rd, 2020 at 4:08:07 PM permalink
Quote: redietz


I suspect the mega-wagers of a million pounds on up are primarily auto-profit hedges, more or less. Similar to money line moves in many Super Bowls where folks have one side as a long shot future.



Some of my action is with someone hedging, who thinks his business will do better under Biden.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
MJGolf
MJGolf
Joined: Aug 17, 2016
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November 3rd, 2020 at 4:10:51 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Odds as of 9/11 at 5dimes:

Biden: -120
Trump: EV



Seems to mirror most polls...................accuracy of them, though, I hope is like Clinton's lead in 2016. LOL
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 3rd, 2020 at 4:13:29 PM permalink
4:11 PST and some counties have already reported. Indiana called for Trump, but no big surprise there. Betting odds suggest Biden has a 68% chance. That is up from 65% yesterday.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
terapined
terapined
Joined: Dec 1, 2012
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November 3rd, 2020 at 5:01:24 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

4:11 PST and some counties have already reported. Indiana called for Trump, but no big surprise there. Betting odds suggest Biden has a 68% chance. That is up from 65% yesterday.


Watching FL closely
Biden was leading
With about 50% of vote counted, Trump just took a slight lead
"Everybody's bragging and drinking that wine, I can tell the Queen of Diamonds by the way she shines, Come to Daddy on an inside straight, I got no chance of losing this time" -Grateful Dead- "Loser"
Wizard
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Wizard
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November 3rd, 2020 at 5:04:15 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

4:11 PST and some counties have already reported. Indiana called for Trump, but no big surprise there. Betting odds suggest Biden has a 68% chance. That is up from 65% yesterday.



5:03 and Trump is doing well. Biden's chances down to 55.2%.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
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November 3rd, 2020 at 5:23:39 PM permalink
About 12 minutes ago Michael Lopez who works in analytics for nfl.com tweeted that at this time 4 years ago betting markets were about 95% Hilldawg with Clinton at -1800. Might be a good time for a reminder with BOTH sides taking victory laps at the moment.
Wizard
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Wizard
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Thanks for this post from:
drebbin37charliepatrick
November 3rd, 2020 at 5:49:19 PM permalink
I think I'll keep a running tally of Biden's chances according to the betting market. Times are Pacific.

4:11 PM 68%
5:03 55.2%
5:47 58.8%
6:12 54.6%
6:26 47.2%
6:36 34.2%
6:45 35.6%
7:04 25.0%
7:16 23.8%
7:28 30.1%
7:50 32.3%
8:16 30.3%
8:28 40.3%
8:45 43.9%
9:10 39.6%
9:45 45.5%
11:50 33.3%
Nov 4
6:00 AM 70.9%
6:17 78.1%
7:25 81.3%
7:52 82.0%
12:18 PM 80.0%
2:28 85.5%
3:17 88.5%
4:48 87.7%
8:30 90.1%
Nov 5
7:25 AM 88.5%
11:40 AM 92.4%
Nov 6
5:34 AM 93.5%
7:40 AM 96.2%
10:19 AM 97.1%
Nov 7
9:29 AM 97.1%
6:44 PM 95.5%
Nov 8
9:16 AM 95.3%
7:16 PM 94.9%
Nov 9
5:55 AM 93.9%
Nov 10
5:01 AM 91.1%
Nov 11
5:13 AM 90.7%
5:10 PM 90.2%
Nov 12
6:26 AM 90.7%
5:01 PM 92.2%
Nov 13
5:37 AM 92.5%
4:56 PM 93.4%
Nov 14
6:38 AM 92.7%
1:33 PM 93.8%
Nov 15
6:58 AM 93.8%
5:45 PM 93.7%
Nov 16
6:07 AM 93.8%
Nov 17
7:24 AM 94.4%
8:43 PM 94.4%
Nov 18
5:03 AM 95.3%
Nov 21
6:55 AM 96.1%
Nov 22
7:13 PM 95.9%
Nov 23
6:41 AM 95.7%
6:01 PM 96.4%
Nov 24
12:48 PM 97.1%
Nov 25
10:31 AM 96.4%
4:56 PM 93.4%
Nov 26
2:05 PM 93.7%
Nov 27
8:30 AM 94.4%
8:38 PM 94.7%
Nov 30
6:58 AM 94.7%
Dec 3
1:36 PM 97.0%
Dec 6
8:52 AM 96.5%
Dec 7
7:45 AM 95.9%
Dec 8
2:31 PM 94.8%
Dec 9
8:14 AM 95.3%
Dec 10
6:08 PM 94.7%
Dec 11
3:50 PM 96.2%
Dec 12
5:26 AM 97.1%
Dec 13
8:54 PM 97.1%
Last edited by: Wizard on Dec 13, 2020
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Torghatten
Torghatten
Joined: Feb 3, 2012
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November 3rd, 2020 at 6:23:22 PM permalink
Trump just became favorite on Betfair.

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