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FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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October 28th, 2020 at 12:22:41 PM permalink
Quote: Lando

Quote: Wizard

I just spent about another two hours revising my newsletter, to be more forceful in recommending betting Biden laying 2 to 1.

Here is the updated version.

Betting the 2020 Election



I feel bad that CNN talked you out of winning 5 figures. Another sad day, another victim of CNN.

The extension of media propaganda and inability to understand polling is really funny around here.

I have $12k on Trump all at prices between +150 and +180. Believe it or not, I'm just telling you.

There is no path to Biden victory, and when I say that, I mean in only 5% of the elections is it squeaky close.



Itís just hard to believe someone when they say there is no path to a Biden victory. Youíre literally the only person Iíve seen that has said that.
terapined
terapined
Joined: Dec 1, 2012
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October 28th, 2020 at 1:28:59 PM permalink
Quote: Lando

Quote: Wizard

I just spent about another two hours revising my newsletter, to be more forceful in recommending betting Biden laying 2 to 1.

Here is the updated version.

Betting the 2020 Election



I feel bad that CNN talked you out of winning 5 figures. Another sad day, another victim of CNN.


?????????
Did you actually read the newsletter
Obviously not because the Wiz never mentions CNN in the analysis, simply as a source at the end.
I never watch CNN myself and am extremely confident of the Wizards analysis
What does CNN have to do with anything?
Why not discuss the analysis in detail regarding the numbers instead of making this political with the CNN comment which was totally unnecessary.
We are discussing numbers, not the boob tube.
Pick the analysis apart and explain how the Wiz is wrong. Thats what this thread is for. Not political statements regarding CNN
Man up, let's hear your response regarding the wizards math
WOV supports censorship. Bring back free speech challenging lies.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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October 28th, 2020 at 1:37:35 PM permalink
Quote: Lando

I feel bad that CNN talked you out of winning 5 figures. Another sad day, another victim of CNN.

The extension of media propaganda and inability to understand polling is really funny around here.



You were warned in this post against making political statements.

I'm going to jump right to a second step in the Martingale with a seven-day suspension.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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October 28th, 2020 at 1:57:13 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

You were warned in this post against making political statements.

I'm going to jump right to a second step in the Martingale with a seven-day suspension.



He will be back just in time to brag or disappear forever.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
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October 28th, 2020 at 1:59:40 PM permalink
Quote: Lando

You are the other poster, along with Fins, that I have responded to on this - his posts are more about asking for data, while yours are rightly directed but you think incorrectly in the larger picture. I agree with you that on average, people overestimate all manner of things about themselves. But that's not what we are talking about. Nor are we talking about buzzwords that you associate with veracity, like "expert", "model" etc that mean nothing in and of themselves. Those of us who are intelligent (and I know you doubt this) look at experts and see what, and more importantly, WHY they are saying what they are saying.

To Fins and you on the data and "expert" idea or data: Why wouldn't you use Trafalgar? Most of your experts were embarrassingly wrong last time and when they were right it was because they got Obama's elections correct, lol. If you can't see through that, however long ago it is, you purposefully being closed minded, and mainly because you are a partisan, I have noticed 95%.

You don't know anything about my intelligence and qualification, you might be right on average again assuming XYZ, but funny enough, you are wrong here. Regardless, I still bet and won on the last Trump election. Hint: it wasn't luck.

If you don't know or see why polls like Quinnipiac, widely accepted AT LEAST in averages, are a joke ... YOU my friend haven't looked at the data, the experts, the bias, the fraud.

It's there. But you'll see again next Tuesday, and I'll be here. What will be silly is when you claim I don't deserve credit.



I have no real expertise myself regarding this. I simply subordinate my personal thoughts to people who do it for a living. Now, to put my ignorance in proper context, my late wife had two doctorates. One was in demography. The folks I hang out with here in Johnson City all have doctorates in sociology or anthropology or psych. One of them, who has taught social science math and designed surveys, is more than happy to critique each and every survey or poll with sword in hand. He breaks them all down pretty viciously, which is cool.

Having said all that, the degree of ignorance required of the experts for them to be far wrong on this would be extraordinary. So I propose a side wager. Since it's 2-1, how about if Trump wins, I refrain from posting here for two years. If Biden wins, you refrain for a year.

Do we have a wager?
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
DRich
DRich
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Minty
October 28th, 2020 at 2:27:14 PM permalink
Quote: redietz


Having said all that, the degree of ignorance required of the experts for them to be far wrong on this would be extraordinary. So I propose a side wager. Since it's 2-1, how about if Trump wins, I refrain from posting here for two years. If Biden wins, you refrain for a year.

Do we have a wager?



Redietz, please don't do that. I like your posts and we know he would just come back as a sock anyway.
Order from chaos
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
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RogerKint
October 28th, 2020 at 2:38:50 PM permalink
Quote: redietz

Now, to put my ignorance in proper context, my late wife had two doctorates. One was in demography. The folks I hang out with here in Johnson City all have doctorates in sociology or anthropology or psych. One of them, who has taught social science math and designed surveys, is more than happy to critique each and every survey or poll with sword in hand. He breaks them all down pretty viciously, which is cool.



Very strange flex but ok.
ams288
ams288
Joined: Sep 26, 2012
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October 28th, 2020 at 5:36:26 PM permalink
Quote: redietz

Do we have a wager?



Doubtful seeing as heís not allowed to post here again till the day after the election is over.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
terapined
terapined
Joined: Dec 1, 2012
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RogerKint
October 28th, 2020 at 6:30:33 PM permalink
Quote: ams288

Doubtful seeing as heís not allowed to post here again till the day after the election is over.


Both parties should take it over to DT
WOV supports censorship. Bring back free speech challenging lies.
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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October 31st, 2020 at 11:21:34 AM permalink
Anyone have any thoughts on the over/under 160 million votes? The under seems to be a lock, so Iím thinking of throwing a few bucks on it.

Iíd like to hear some opinions.

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