Super Bowl 54 Squares

As I mentioned on my Live Stream yesterday, the Circa sports books (at the D and Golden Gate) have 400 bets on exact Super Bowl Squares. No randomizing, you pick your exact numbers, for the first three quarters and end of game.

Based on 11 seasons of data, I analyzed all 400. The results can be found in my new page on Super Bowl Squares. It starts with a general discussion of randomized contests and then gets into the Circa version. I perceive advantages as high as 45%.

Please have a look and give me your feedback. The question for the poll is what do you think of the article? Multiple votes allowed.

I would love to see the score at 11-5 after the first quarter.

Good stuff Wizard! What if you only looked at the last five years of scores? I think the proliferation of the two-point conversions and the increased difficulty of hitting mid- and long-range field goals has affected scoring changes. Even with a small sample, maybe a shift toward other, even rather than odd, key numbers would appear?

Quote: Wizard

As I mentioned on my Live Stream yesterday, the Circa sports books (at the D and Golden Gate) have 400 bets on exact Super Bowl Squares. No randomizing, you pick your exact numbers, for the first three quarters and end of game.

Based on 11 seasons of data, I analyzed all 400. The results can be found in my new page on Super Bowl Squares. It starts with a general discussion of randomized contests and then gets into the Circa version. I perceive advantages as high as 45%.

Please have a look and give me your feedback. The question for the poll is what do you think of the article? Multiple votes allowed.

Under Randomized Version, item 3, I think it should say quarters 1,2, and 3. Not 1,3, and 3