ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 2nd, 2020 at 3:34:14 PM permalink
The odds below are my current odds I am offering for the Super Bowl:

"All-In" Betting (all bets stand no matter what happens)

Baltimore Ravens
To Win the Super Bowl^^^: +225
To Not Win the Super Bowl ***: -225

Kansas City Chiefs
To Win the Super Bowl^^^: +500
To Not Win the Super Bowl ***: -500

San Francisco 49ers
To Win the Super Bowl^^^: +440
To Not Win the Super Bowl ***: -440

New Orleans Saints
To Win the Super Bowl^^^: +730
To Not Win the Super Bowl ***: -730

Green Bay Packers
To Win the Super Bowl^^^: +1275
To Not Win the Super Bowl ***: -1275

New England Patriots
To Win the Super Bowl^^^: +1500
To Not Win the Super Bowl ***: -1500

Seattle Seahawks
To Win the Super Bowl^^^: +3200
To Not Win the Super Bowl ***: -3200

"Any other team not mentioned"
To Win the Super Bowl^^^: +1736
To Not Win the Super Bowl ###:-1736


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Betting Limits:

^^^; My (Ksdjdj) maximum liability is $6.400 for each team
Eg: if you want to back the Seahawks "To Win the Super Bowl" , then $200 is the max bet (in total) I will take for the odds above ($200 @ +3200 = a $6,400 loss to me if the Seahawks win the Super Bowl).

***: The max bet you can have on any one team at these odds is $2,400
Eg: if you want to back the Seahawks "To Not Win the Super Bowl" , then $2,400 is the max bet (in total) I will take for the odds above ($2,400 @ -3200 = a $75 loss to me if the Seahawks lose the Super Bowl).

###: The max bet you can have at these odds is $868
Eg: if you want to back "Any other team not mentioned", "To Not Win the Super Bowl" ,then $868 is the max bet (in total) I will take for the odds above ($868 @ -1736 = a $50 loss to me if "Any other team not mentioned" lose the Super Bowl).

Note: I prefer to bet on things "not to happen" rather than "to happen", so that is why the limits look like this.

Note 2: I don't like the chances of "Any other team not mentioned" winning the Super Bowl, so that is why the limit for "###" is smaller.

These offers are valid until 10 pm tonight (Pacific Time) and are available on a "first come first served" basis.

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General Terms (you can try to negotiate different terms via PM, but I think these are fair).

Paypal is my preferred method of payment (will also accept Skrill or Bitcoin)

Settlement: Within 15 business days after the Super Bowl

Again, it is All-In Betting

The odds above will no longer be offered after 10 pm (pacific time) tonight, but I will attempt to post a new "set of odds" within 38 hours from this post.

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Other:

I tried to put the above odds in a table (to make it look "neater") but something went wrong (either I did something wrong, or there was a glitch).

Also, I will put up some "Super Bowl prop bets", eg "Safety scored yes/no", closer to the Super Bowl.

Lastly, please take this post down if any rules have been broken, thanks.

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Update (about 10 pm)

The above odds are no longer on offer
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 2, 2020
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 3rd, 2020 at 11:56:27 PM permalink
It is about the time I said that I will post new odds but have decided against it, since it takes a while to work them out.
If anyone wants me to post more odds up, I will do so after it has been requested.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
January 4th, 2020 at 1:18:37 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

It is about the time I said that I will post new odds but have decided against it, since it takes a while to work them out.
If anyone wants me to post more odds up, I will do so after it has been requested.



I look forward to all your odds posts.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 4th, 2020 at 2:42:06 PM permalink
Updated Odds:


Super Bowl Winner: Yes (they will win)^^^ No (they will not win)***
Baltimore Ravens +230 -230
Kansas City Chiefs +500 -500
San Francisco 49ers +440 -440
New Orleans Saints +670 -670
Green Bay Packers +1375 -1375
New England Patriots +1625 -1625
Seattle Seahawks +3500 -3500
Any other team not mentioned +1520 -1520

Note 1: "Any other team not mentioned", and "Patriots" odds valid until 5pm (pacific time) today.

Note 2: if you want to bet on any of the other odds with me, they are valid until 10pm (Pacific time) tonight.


Note 3: I have removed the special betting limit for "Any other team not mentioned", all other "Betting limits" and "General Terms" are still the same as they were in the OP, (see link below)
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/34129-my-odds-for-super-bowl-liv/#post752491

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"The teams I personally want to bet on, at the above odds":

Chiefs and 49ers (combined): I would like to bet $1,500 @ +184.2, (either team to Win the Super Bowl)
Seahawks: I would like to bet $60 @ +3500 (to win the Super Bowl).

Remember: if you want to bet, you can bet any team or amount with me within the "betting limits of the OP" (these are just the teams and odds that I like at the moment)


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Update (about 510 pm)

The odds above for "Any other team not mentioned" and the Patriots, are no longer on offer.


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Odds Update (about 905 pm and valid until 130 am tomorrow, pacific time)


Super Bowl Winner: Yes (they will win)^^^ No (they will not win)***
Baltimore Ravens +230 -230
Kansas City Chiefs +420 -420
San Francisco 49ers +440 -440
New Orleans Saints +670 -670
Green Bay Packers +1370 -1370
Tennessee Titans +3400 -3400
Seattle Seahawks +3300 -3300
Any other team not mentioned +1470 -1470


----
It is now about 130 am (pac time) so these odds are no longer on offer
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 5, 2020
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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January 5th, 2020 at 5:43:44 PM permalink
Odds Update (valid until 130 am tomorrow, pacific time):


Super Bowl Winner: Yes (they will win)^^^ No (they will not win)***
Baltimore Ravens +210 -210
Kansas City Chiefs +380 -380
San Francisco 49ers +385 -385
Minnesota Vikings +1725 -1725
Green Bay Packers +1000 -1000
Tennessee Titans +3100 -3100
Seattle Seahawks +1540 -1540
Houston Texans +3900 -3900

Note: See OP here >>> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/34129-my-odds-for-super-bowl-liv/#post752491 <<< for "betting limits" and "general terms" (if you want to bet @ these prices with me).

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"Early" Super Bowl Props (valid until 10 pm this Friday, Pac time)

Safeties O/U 0.5:
Over 0.5: +1,540
Under 0.5: -1,540

Safeties O/U 1.5:
Over 1.5: +100,000
Under 1.5: -100,000

Successful 2-pt conversion(s) O/U 0.5:
Over 0.5: +600
Under 0.5: -600

Successful 2-pt conversion(s) O/U 1.5
Over 1.5: +6,000
Under 1.5: -6,000

Note: Odds changed @ 725 pm (pac time) from +5,500 (over) / -5,500 (under).

Overtime Yes/No:
Yes: +1,520
No: -1,520

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Betting Limits for these prop bets:

For "Safeties O/U 0.5", you can have a maximum of $400 on the "Over", and $1,540 on the "Under".

For "Safeties O/U 1.5", you can have a maximum of $20 on the "Over", and $5,000 on the "Under".

For "...2-pt conversion(s) O/U 0.5", you can have a maximum of $1,000 on the "Over", and $1,500 on the "Under"

For "...2-pt conversion(s) O/U 1.5", you can have a maximum of $200 on the "Over", and $3,000 on the "Under".

For "Overtime Yes/No", you can have a maximum of $400 on the "Yes", and $1,520 on the "No"

First come first served, and these limits are only guaranteed for the first person who bets.


Note: Settlement terms can be negotiated, but it think the "general terms" in the OP are fair.

Also Note: for props like the ones above, I like to bet on "unders" and "no/things won't happen", so that is why the limits are "lopsided".

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Update (about 215am) :
Only the "props bets" are valid now
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 6, 2020
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 6th, 2020 at 2:39:09 PM permalink
deleted (for some reason it was a "double post")
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 6th, 2020 at 2:39:10 PM permalink
Odds Update (valid until 130 am tomorrow, pacific time):


Super Bowl Winner: Yes (they will win)^^^ No (they will not win)***
Baltimore Ravens +205 -205
Kansas City Chiefs +380 -380
San Francisco 49ers +380 -380
Minnesota Vikings +1725 -1725
Green Bay Packers +1020 -1020
Tennessee Titans +3300 -3300
Seattle Seahawks +1625 -1625
Houston Texans +4000 -4000

Note: Any price with a strike-through means, "there is no guarantee for those odds anymore"

Also Note: See OP here >>> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/34129-my-odds-for-super-bowl-liv/#post752491 <<< for "betting limits" and "general terms" (if you want to bet @ these prices with me).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 6, 2020
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 6th, 2020 at 5:35:17 PM permalink
Thanks for the "oddschecker.com" link, it looks like a good site to help me with what I am doing.

Also, I pretty much just "averaged out" the Betfair prices^^^ for my last post (because if I swing too far one way or the other, people could take advantage).

^^^: Below is my actual opinion of what the prices should be (for the 3 teams mentioned):
1: In my opinion, the current Vikings "fair price" should be between +1800 to +1900 to win the Superbowl, but there is a bookie that is offering -1600 the field to win (they offered -1500 earlier today, so I took it)

2: In my opinion,the current Chiefs "fair price" should be between +400 to +420 to win, but there is a bookie offering -365 for the field to win vs the Chiefs (and I took the -365).

3: In my opinion, the current Packers "fair price" should be a bit higher than +1100.

Note: Currently the prices are almost 100% copy of betfair. But for the first post in this thread I put "a bit more of my own opinion into the price" (about 50% betfair, 30% 5dimes, and 20% my own opinion)

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Props bets:

The "prop bets" odds were more of a "guess", especially for both the "...O/U 1.5" props (see "1 and 2" below)

1: If the Over 1.5 Safeties was for 2 different games, then the "fair odds" should be about +26,796.

2: If the Over 1.5 Successful 2-pt conversion(s) was for 2 different games, then the "fair odds" should be about +4,800.

But since this is for one game, I thought the "fair price" should be somewhere between:

(i) +26,796 to +104,000, for over 1.5 safeties. I picked +100,000, since I think there is a "very low correlation" between the chances of one safety and the chances of two (or more) safeties, in one game" .

(ii) +4,800 to +18,000, for over 1.5 Successful 2-pt conversions. I picked +6,000, since I think there is a "medium 'correlation" between the chances of one 2-pt conversion and the chances of two (or more) 2-pt conversions, in one game".

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I am thinking of making my next "odds table" with just a "to win super bowl" column (and if anyone want to back a team "to lose", they can just back all the other teams "to win" prices).

Any prices mentioned in this post are not on offer, the previous post of mine is what I am offering at the moment.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 6, 2020
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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January 6th, 2020 at 8:26:40 PM permalink
This weeks' Divisional Round Prop Betting:

Thought instead of starting a new thread, I will post my NFL "how many favorites will win this weekend " (prop bets) here:


How many favorites will win this weekend? Odds on offer
0 to 2 +250
Exactly 3 +138
Exactly 4 +240


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Betting Limits
I can refuse any bet I deem to be "too big" (My maximum "guaranteed"### liability will be $1,200 for each "prop")

###: only guaranteed for the 1st person who has a bet on that prop.

General / settlement terms: the same as in the OP (if we don't negotiate different terms).

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These odds are valid until 1 pm (pacific time) tomorrow.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 6, 2020

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