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To me this is the perfect storm of Joe Public's overreaction. All they see is how dominant Rogers and the Packers have been and the Chiefs have lost their last 2 home games and now Mahomes is OUT!!!! Every weekend warrior and their Grandma will be all over the Packers this week.
Classic case of Buy low and Sell high! I took Chiefs +4.5 when it got there. It has since moved back down to +3.5. I think it's more likely to move back towards 4 than it would be to go to 3 so you can wait. I also lean to the Under 48 in this game.
Another one I'm looking at is the Browns which will also be a case of buy low and sell high. The Patriots are undefeated and the talk of the league as usual while the Browns came into the season with some expectations of being good but have failed thus far at just 2-4 on the year. 13 points is too many there I think.
I would not be shocked if either of these dogs wins outright so take a peak at the moneylines as well! Again these are not locks by any means I just think we have some long term value in these spots.
good luck everyone
RD
Good luck!
Chiefs +4.5 $110---LOSE -$110, WIN +$100
Packers -3.5 $100---LOSE -$100, WIN +$100
So, if the Packers won by exactly four points, the result would be +$200.
If the Chiefs covered the +4.5 by winning or losing by three or less, then that bet wins $100 and the Packers bet loses $100.
If the Packers win by more than 4, then you would win $100 and lose $110 on the Chiefs for a net loss of $10.
According to this:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
There is a margin of victory of four points 5.2% of the time, which we will cut to 2.6% because there are two teams. (Should be slightly more as the Packers are the favorite). With that, we come up with the following rough probabilities:
Exactly four points, Packers win: .026
We also know teams are theoretically 50% likely to cover the spread, though the Packers must be considered a little less or there would be juice on the -3.5. For that reason, we'll say the Packers are 48% to cover overall and subtract the 2.6% to get 45.4%.
Exactly Four Points, Packers Win: .026
Packers cover by more than four: .454
Chiefs cover spread and win OR lose by less than four: .52
So, here are the results:
(200 * .026) - (.454 * 10) - (.52 * 0) = 0.66
Thereby yielding a positive expectation of 0.66 on the $210 total in bets. Granted, that only LOOKS like a 0.3143% advantage given the $210 dollar bet, but that's actually not true, because you're not REALLY betting $210. You're effectively only betting $10 because that is all you can possibly lose.
.66/10 = .066, which reflects a 6.6% advantage, assuming you agree with my analysis...which I am not suggesting is absolutely right.
If you agree with the analysis and think your advantage on Chiefs +4.5 by itself is less than 6.6% advantage, then this middle is not a hedge, but rather a good bet.
Quote: Mission146If you agree with the analysis and think your advantage on Chiefs +4.5 by itself is less than 6.6% advantage, then this middle is not a hedge, but rather a good bet.
According to your analysis, wouldn't that mean trading an expected value of $4.66 (+4.24% on a $110 bet on Kansas City +4.5, based on the Chiefs having a 52% chance of covering the 3.5, plus a 2.6% chance of the game landing on 4) for an expected value of 66-cents?
Quote: TomGAccording to your analysis, wouldn't that mean trading an expected value of $4.66 (+4.24% on a $110 bet on Kansas City +4.5, based on the Chiefs having a 52% chance of covering the 3.5, plus a 2.6% chance of the game landing on 4) for an expected value of 66-cents?
I don’t even know how I feel about the KC +4.5 on its own, to be honest. I just tried to make fairly conservative assumptions in my analysis to underplay the value of the middle. The whole thing was predicated on a betting line at -110 being assumed to be 50/50 to win, not my actual opinion of the game or lines themselves.
Even then, that’s the point of the last sentence, if you think the value (or percent advantage) on the KC +4.5 is better, then you wouldn’t want to bet for the middle play.
Also, don’t forget GB is more likely to win by four than KC because GB is the favorite. I just cut the four point margin of victory probability in half to deliberately make very conservative assumptions unfavorable to my point.
Edit to ADD: The four point margin of victory can also be assumed to be more likely than normal because that’s where the line is at roughly, whereas the percentage used reflects ALL NFL games regardless of line. Really, I was trying to present a worst case scenario and showing it’s still good.
Quote: Mission146
Edit to ADD: The four point margin of victory can also be assumed to be more likely than normal because that’s where the line is at roughly, whereas the percentage used reflects ALL NFL games regardless of line. Really, I was trying to present a worst case scenario and showing it’s still good.
This. Was just coming here to mention this but your edit beat me to it. A +4.5 game is more likely to land on 4 than a +7.5 game, etc.
Quote: WatchMeWinKC at home getting 4 is nice, however I like to move lines to my liking in a multi team parlay. Been highly successful. Initial glance, I will boost kc up to plus 10.5 with detroit to -2.5 , rams to -6, lsu to -2.5, and over in mlb tonite to 6.5. Havent put in yet so i dont know specific odds and payout yet. May add or subract teams. Will keep updated.
WMW,
I don't understand what you are betting here? Is it a parlay or a teaser? You are moving the baseball total from 8 to 6.5? I've never seen a teaser that can use MLB before is this a real thing? Just curious.
RD
Quote: unJonKC and GB game is very interesting. But I think you missed a few of the reasons why. Reid has not ruled out Mahomes playing. Mahomes has been practicing. And the look ahead line was KC -3.5 so the movement to KC +3.5 or +4 is a crazy swing even for such a QB.
Good luck!
Agreed I think there is an outside chance Mahomes plays which gives even more value. However even with Moore in there +4.5 is too much in my opinion. This will be a chase game for all the ploppies that are in the hole after the earlier games on Sunday. Might see +4.5 come back unless Mahomes plays.
GL
RD
Quote: RisingDoughWMW,
I don't understand what you are betting here? Is it a parlay or a teaser? You are moving the baseball total from 8 to 6.5? I've never seen a teaser that can use MLB before is this a real thing? Just curious.
RD
Hey RD, yes, it is a real thing. It is within a parlay. Basically you can buy points in different sports and different games, but you cannot buy points with a side and total within the same game on the same parlay. Most of the new bedding platforms have this. FanDuel has it, and the casinos gaming systems have it through Kambi.
I absolutely love making lines to where I want them to be and putting them in on a multi game Heartland. It has changed my sports betting game forever.
As far as the games I mentioned earlier in the post, the payout for those teams and the points but within the parlay would have come out to 5-1 payout... 100 wld have gotten back 500, which includes the initial 100.
Heading out to the casino now. Who do you like today?
long term valuesQuote: RisingDoughClassic case of Buy low and Sell high! I took Chiefs +4.5 when it got there. It has since moved back down to +3.5. I think it's more likely to move back towards 4 than it would be to go to 3 so you can wait. I also lean to the Under 48 in this game.
Another one I'm looking at is the Browns which will also be a case of buy low and sell high. The Patriots are undefeated and the talk of the league as usual while the Browns came into the season with some expectations of being good but have failed thus far at just 2-4 on the year. 13 points is too many there I think.
I would not be shocked if either of these dogs wins outright so take a peak at the moneylines as well!
Again these are not locks by any means I just think we have some long term value in these spots.
good luck everyone
RD
on any given Sunday just really has no value
winning probabilities and the lines matters, the other stuff is just stuff
I took NE on the money line, because I can and just enjoyed the GB/KC game.
too many people over think these games.
No way Browns could win at NE (they tried - too many turnovers. cover they did NOT at -10)
Packers cover (surprised they allowed so many points)
GB/KC went over
Quote: 7crapsQuote: RisingDough
No way Browns could win
And the WOV Post-game predictions continue to truck along at the 100% success rate..
Quote: 7crapslong term valuesQuote: RisingDoughClassic case of Buy low and Sell high! I took Chiefs +4.5 when it got there. It has since moved back down to +3.5. I think it's more likely to move back towards 4 than it would be to go to 3 so you can wait. I also lean to the Under 48 in this game.
Another one I'm looking at is the Browns which will also be a case of buy low and sell high. The Patriots are undefeated and the talk of the league as usual while the Browns came into the season with some expectations of being good but have failed thus far at just 2-4 on the year. 13 points is too many there I think.
I would not be shocked if either of these dogs wins outright so take a peak at the moneylines as well!
Again these are not locks by any means I just think we have some long term value in these spots.
good luck everyone
RD
on any given Sunday just really has no value
winning probabilities and the lines matters, the other stuff is just stuff
I took NE on the money line, because I can and just enjoyed the GB/KC game.
too many people over think these games.
No way Browns could win at NE (they tried - too many turnovers. cover they did NOT at -10)
Packers cover (surprised they allowed so many points)
GB/KC went over
Agreed that any given Sunday anything can happen but I think I had an edge on both games. Didn't work out this time but that doesn't mean I was on the wrong side. Back to the drawing board for next week!
RD
Quote: RigondeauxIt's especially odd give that, if you watched the game, you saw tht the Pats got every lucky break. It's easy to imagine the browns winning that game.
I am not sure I would call sloppy play by your opponent a lucky break.
But what is clear is the Pat's offense is just average to a touch above at the moment. I am wondering if Baltimore might not knock them off outright.
Quote: RisingDoughWMW,
I don't understand what you are betting here? Is it a parlay or a teaser? You are moving the baseball total from 8 to 6.5? I've never seen a teaser that can use MLB before is this a real thing? Just curious.
RD
FYI... Here is a snapshot of my alternate lines parlay yesterday. As you can see, you can pretty much pick whatever line you want for the game that you like (odds adjust). You can cross sport as well and add mlb or nba alternate lines if you like.
Alternate Lines Parlay https://imgur.com/a/ZYp6R2u
Quote: AZDuffmanI am not sure I would call sloppy play by your opponent a lucky break.
But what is clear is the Pat's offense is just average to a touch above at the moment. I am wondering if Baltimore might not knock them off outright.
The Pats getting every important call probably isn't one either. I'm serious. I don't actually follow NFL closely and maybe I'm part of some group think hysteria here, but it sure seems like they get the superstar treatment. I wonder if handicappers agree, and include it in the price.
Certainly, I agree, the Patriots have superior coaching and a superior team ethic, which is what makes them the Patriots. They make fewer critical mistakes. At the same time The Browns are NFL players. I think Chubb doesn't normally make back breaking fumbles on back to back possessions, even against the Pats. The corner probably doesn't always drop an easy INT from Brady in the end zone. etc. Even though the Browns are more likely to do these things.
Chargers +4
Ravens +3
Also
Bears +5
GL,
RD
Quote: RisingDoughI will be fading Patriots again when they play @Philly in 2 weeks as the number will be inflated once again because nobody will think they can possibly lose 2 in a row! Plus with a week off they will be fully rested and have a perfect game plan! There should be value on the Eagles. The Pats have had a very soft schedule thus far and I don't think they are a good as people think. Not saying they are bad just that years of dominance leads to inflated spreads and the softness of schedule to start this season has people overrating them a bit.
I picked Baltimore outright last night for more than a few reasons. Patriots Offense is playoff good but not Super Bowl good at this point. It was their defense setting the offense up for good things. The Buffalo narrow win is what made me select the Ravens.
RD
