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Wizard
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Wizard
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Thanks for this post from:
Rigondeauxsmoothgrh
October 13th, 2019 at 6:52:22 AM permalink
I noticed a prop bet at the Rampart yesterday on the first team to score a touchdown on Sunday, Oct 13, 2019. It was, of course, limited to the 10:00 games (PST). The following table shows what each game pays and my analysis of it. The winner is determined by the first touchdown on the game clock, not actual time. Lines posted here I assume were opening lines and may have changed.

The following table shows the spread, total, estimated points scored by that team, estimated touchdowns (subtracting six points for field goals for each team and then dividing by 7), share of total touchdown scored by that team, fair line, and expected value.

The fair line assumes that the probability of having the first touchdown is proportional to total expected touchdowns.

As you can see, this model shows a 22% advantage on the Bengals.

My question is what are your thoughts on this approach?

Team Pays Spread Total Exp Points Exp TD Prob First TD Fair line EV
Bengals 20 12 48 18 1.71 5.80% 16.25 21.74%
Ravens 6 -12 48 30 3.43 11.59% 7.63 -18.84%
Seahawks 11 2 47.5 22.75 2.39 8.09% 11.36 -2.90%
Browns 10 -2 47.5 24.75 2.68 9.06% 10.04 -0.36%
Texans 8 5.5 55.5 25 2.71 9.18% 9.89 -17.39%
Chiefs 5 -5.5 55.5 30.5 3.50 11.84% 7.45 -28.99%
Saints 10 -1 44 22.5 2.36 7.97% 11.55 -12.32%
Jags 10 1 44 21.5 2.21 7.49% 12.35 -17.63%
Eagles 11 3 43.5 20.25 2.04 6.88% 13.53 -17.39%
Vikings 8 -3 43.5 23.25 2.46 8.33% 11.00 -25.00%
Redskins 12 -3.5 40.5 22 2.29 7.73% 11.94 0.48%
Dolphins 12 3.5 40.5 18.5 1.79 6.04% 15.56 -21.50%
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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October 13th, 2019 at 7:14:48 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I noticed a prop bet at the Rampart yesterday on the first team to score a touchdown on Sunday, Oct 13, 2019. It was, of course, limited to the 10:00 games (PST). The following table shows what each game pays and my analysis of it. The winner is determined by the first touchdown on the game clock, not actual time. Lines posted here I assume were opening lines and may have changed.

The following table shows the spread, total, estimated points scored by that team, estimated touchdowns (subtracting six points for field goals for each team and then dividing by 7), share of total touchdown scored by that team, fair line, and expected value.

The fair line assumes that the probability of having the first touchdown is proportional to total expected touchdowns.

As you can see, this model shows a 22% advantage on the Bengals.

My question is what are your thoughts on this approach?

Team Pays Spread Total Exp Points Exp TD Prob First TD Fair line EV
Bengals 20 12 48 18 1.71 5.80% 16.25 21.74%
Ravens 6 -12 48 30 3.43 11.59% 7.63 -18.84%
Seahawks 11 2 47.5 22.75 2.39 8.09% 11.36 -2.90%
Browns 10 -2 47.5 24.75 2.68 9.06% 10.04 -0.36%
Texans 8 5.5 55.5 25 2.71 9.18% 9.89 -17.39%
Chiefs 5 -5.5 55.5 30.5 3.50 11.84% 7.45 -28.99%
Saints 10 -1 44 22.5 2.36 7.97% 11.55 -12.32%
Jags 10 1 44 21.5 2.21 7.49% 12.35 -17.63%
Eagles 11 3 43.5 20.25 2.04 6.88% 13.53 -17.39%
Vikings 8 -3 43.5 23.25 2.46 8.33% 11.00 -25.00%
Redskins 12 -3.5 40.5 22 2.29 7.73% 11.94 0.48%
Dolphins 12 3.5 40.5 18.5 1.79 6.04% 15.56 -21.50%



Are you NOT factoring in the defense of the opponent? Edit... I see you use the pointspread which includes both the offense and defense of the opponents. I surmise that you would need defense specific stats.

Also, a running team is way less likely to score first, as running plays gain fewer yards per minute of clock running.
Wizard
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Wizard
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October 13th, 2019 at 7:26:34 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Also, a running team is way less likely to score first, as running plays gain fewer yards per minute of clock running.



Good point. It looks like the Bengals have 7 passing touchdowns and only 1 rushing. They are listed as 7th passing yards and 31st in rushing yards. Both would make me even more inclined to bet them. I still have 2.5 hours before kickoff.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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October 13th, 2019 at 7:34:33 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Good point. It looks like the Bengals have 7 passing touchdowns and only 1 rushing. They are listed as 7th passing yards and 31st in rushing yards. Both would make me even more inclined to bet them. I still have 2.5 hours before kickoff.



This is what you need to do..... Check the last 100 weeks of NFL games. What is the average time to first TD if there are 6 games only included? I'll guess 2 minutes. Then see how many times each team this season has scored a TD in 2 minutes or less from the time they get offensive possession.. You might find the Chiefs have 9 and the Bengals 1.
This is a very interesting prop bet with I think way more complicated analysis than you are giving it.
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
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October 13th, 2019 at 8:15:44 AM permalink
It seems to me that your approach is good enough that if it suggests a 22% advantage, it's very likely that there is some advantage.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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October 13th, 2019 at 8:21:35 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard



The following table shows the spread, total, estimated points scored by that team, estimated touchdowns (subtracting six points for field goals for each team and then dividing by 7), share of total touchdown scored by that team, fair line, and expected value.



I am assuming "total" is the over/under total?

Well, not the approach I would use.

I would try to find out how the teams score in the first quarter only. Reason being that your approach does not take garbage points into account. Example there is Jets. They covered against the Pats, when it did not matter to the game results. Throws it off by 2 TDs. On a pathetic offense team like the Jets just 5 games in, that is a bunch. All bad teams are like this.

Quarter by quarter scoring is easy to get though time consuming. Then I would figure "possession efficiency." IOW, points scored per minute. IOW, if a team has the ball 30 minutes and gets 28 points, then they would be expected to get 15 points for 15 minutes of possession.

Then figure punts vs. score possession. Then figure TD to FG. This should scrub things enough to get an idea how long it will take to score a TD.

Then we need to make that a 50/50 thing to account for coin toss win/loss/decision.

In simper terms, this is not a bet I would spend time on doing a ton of math work. I would just take the 2-3 best offensive teams available. I would NOT take the Pats since hey like to choose kick not receive. Then play by "feel" taking into account things like weather.
Tolerance is the virtue of believing in nothing
TomG
TomG
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October 13th, 2019 at 8:54:36 AM permalink
Great start.

First impression: when only one sportsbook in the entire world puts up a line, it's very likely to be off and there should be an edge somewhere.
Second impression: 15% house edge is going to be very hard to beat

I really like the Bengals to score first in their game at +220. That means they are only about a 30-33% chance, to score before the Ravens. Let's set all TDs at random in all the games and make every team's true odds 12-1. Then make the Ravens a 67% favorite to score the first TD in their game. Doing that pushes Cincinnati to 18-1, which is still a nice 11% edge. But that doesn't account for eight of the other 10 teams having stronger offenses and that even if the Bengals do score first, it is more likely to be a field goal than if the Ravens score first.

Definitely think the 20-1 is a lot closer to true odds than -15% that this prop implies. If it was horse racing where they give huge comps, I would have no problem betting it. As it is, can't get too excited about it.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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October 13th, 2019 at 10:04:48 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard



As you can see, this model shows a 22% advantage on the Bengals.



BOOM!
Tolerance is the virtue of believing in nothing
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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October 13th, 2019 at 10:06:28 AM permalink
So did you get that $5,000 bet down like you were planning to?
michael99000
michael99000
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October 13th, 2019 at 10:20:50 AM permalink
Not too many sports bets cash in 12 seconds

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