Thread Rating:

Poll

1 vote (33.33%)
1 vote (33.33%)
2 votes (66.66%)
1 vote (33.33%)
1 vote (33.33%)
1 vote (33.33%)
1 vote (33.33%)
2 votes (66.66%)
1 vote (33.33%)

3 members have voted

unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4571
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
September 7th, 2019 at 6:24:02 AM permalink
The thread that was recently made following along with the micro stakes sports bets gave me inspiration to start this thread. Here’s the idea: if people want to post a sports bet they made (before the event happens) to let others on the forum cheer or jeer along with them, this thread is the place.

This thread is NOT for touts or anyone trying to sell picks or a system. This is just a place for members that want to share a bet they made but wouldn’t otherwise want to start a brand new thread to do so.

If people want to explain why they made the picks that’s fine. But be prepared for the Forum Members to make fun of you.

I’m an occasional sports gambler, mostly during NFL season. I do it for entertainment purposes. I have a job that pays me a lot of money every year and gambling is a way to have fun and blow off steam.

I am an overall net loser sports betting. I do not think I have an edge: those that saw my pics last year in the WoV Picks thread can attest that I do not have an edge. I like to make an occasional long shot parlay and otherwise just pick games based on my gut.

I’ll start it off with a five leg parlay:

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
TomG
TomG
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 2426
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
September 7th, 2019 at 7:48:36 AM permalink
I like it. I know a lot of people putting in hundreds of bets per week, with wildly different odds and bet amounts, so the usual 'tracking' systems that people try to do online become a bit silly and wasteful. A place for everyone to just list one-off things on occasion (or frequently) is so much better for everyone

One bet I liked finding today was Texas A&M 1h +10.5 and parlay +10.5 and u33 (actually put that in about six different three-team parlays to get it closer to -109)
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4571
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
September 7th, 2019 at 8:33:34 AM permalink
Quote: TomG



One bet I liked finding today was Texas A&M 1h +10.5 and parlay +10.5 and u33 (actually put that in about six different three-team parlays to get it closer to -109)

Nice find. I only see +10 now.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
7craps
7craps
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1977
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
September 7th, 2019 at 8:52:23 AM permalink
can't lose. bet the farm Probability of an Alabama win: 100%
New Mexico State at (2) Alabama
bet Alabama
Money Line (William Hill) 1111/9999901 (about 1/900)
(WH may not take a large bet)

could lose. bet only kids college fund. Probability of a Wisconsin win: 99.9%
Central Michigan at (16) Wisconsin
bet Wisconsin
Money Line (William Hill) 1/400

parlay instead? about 1/277

pizza, beer and parlay
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 86
  • Posts: 11596
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
September 7th, 2019 at 12:50:46 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

can't lose. bet the farm Probability of an Alabama win: 100%



Is Zenking back? No bet is 100% to win today.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10940
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
September 7th, 2019 at 1:10:35 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

can't lose. bet the farm Probability of an Alabama win: 100%
New Mexico State at (2) Alabama
bet Alabama
Money Line (William Hill) 1111/9999901 (about 1/900)
(WH may not take a large bet)

could lose. bet only kids college fund. Probability of a Wisconsin win: 99.9%
Central Michigan at (16) Wisconsin
bet Wisconsin
Money Line (William Hill) 1/400

parlay instead? about 1/277

pizza, beer and parlay



Do you earn any 'comps' or anything like that for betting $5000 to win $5?
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4571
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
September 12th, 2019 at 8:47:57 AM permalink
Looking at the NFL lines this morning. I like Cards +13 and Colts +3 +100 (though wonder if this bumps half point so will probably wait). Both lines seem like overreactions to week one scores by Baltimore and Tennessee, respectively.

Disclaimer: I’m not a pro sports better. I don’t have a system. I do this for entertainment.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
7craps
7craps
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1977
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
September 13th, 2019 at 7:57:23 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Do you earn any 'comps' or anything like that for betting $5000 to win $5?

yes. comps with card at casino, or at least $5 for online wager (parlays rebate more than straight bets)
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
7craps
7craps
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1977
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
September 13th, 2019 at 8:00:56 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Is Zenking back? No bet is 100% to win today.

you are not specific here.
Alabama beating NM ST with their 3rd string is only 99.999% win probability.
1st team, Alabama would NEVER lose.

simple math,
not like horse racing where owners and other jockeys complain about the winning horse
and corrupt videos are used to say the winning horse is disqualified. LOL
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 86
  • Posts: 11596
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
September 13th, 2019 at 8:04:08 AM permalink
Quote: 7craps

you are not specific here.
Alabama beating NM ST with their 3rd string is only 99.999% win probability.
1st team, Alabama would NEVER lose.

simple math,
not like horse racing where owners and other jockeys complain about the winning horse
and corrupt videos are used to say the winning horse is disqualified. LOL



Have you ever heard of games getting rescheduled to another day or postponed due to weather? There is no guarantee that a team will win TODAY as was claimed.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
7craps
7craps
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1977
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
September 13th, 2019 at 8:08:30 AM permalink
another 99.9% winning money line bet today being offered
MLB
Mets at home +120
LAD do not have to win and need to stay healthy and could barely beat Baltimore at home.
Have lost last 3 with Kershaw starting.

Mets have to win

and books always have LAD at faves with Ker on the mound starting.
the public are such fools to always follow that one... and they do.

I will be hoping the line moves and plan on betting at least $2 (not how much one bets - that they bet matters)
on the Mets to win
and +1.5 at -150 (more to bet here)
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
  • Threads: 30
  • Posts: 2549
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
September 13th, 2019 at 4:53:54 PM permalink
I noticed that the Patriots/Dolphins total has been left off the parlay cards in 3/3 places I checked.

It doesn't happen much in NFL, but perhaps the spread is big enough to make for a + ev correlated parlay. I'm pretty sure that the books are afraid that is the case.

Someone else can try to figure out if they are right.
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4571
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
September 13th, 2019 at 5:46:30 PM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

I noticed that the Patriots/Dolphins total has been left off the parlay cards in 3/3 places I checked.

It doesn't happen much in NFL, but perhaps the spread is big enough to make for a + ev correlated parlay. I'm pretty sure that the books are afraid that is the case.

Someone else can try to figure out if they are right.



Interesting. Online site letting me parlay line with total.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 86
  • Posts: 11596
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
September 13th, 2019 at 6:05:38 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

another 99.9% winning money line bet today being offered
MLB
Mets at home +120
LAD do not have to win and need to stay healthy and could barely beat Baltimore at home.



Sorry, but I have to root against anyone claiming a 99.9% winner. Dodgers up 4-1 in the 6th.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4571
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
September 14th, 2019 at 6:32:32 AM permalink
Taking a flyer on Eastern Michigan +7.5. Most places have it at 7 now.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
TomG
TomG
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 2426
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
September 15th, 2019 at 1:06:20 PM permalink
15 Sep 2019
Early NFL games looking ok. Packers and Ravens unders will be close, same with Giants teasers and over. Lost everything on the Dolphins. Looking to win everything else -- Lions and under, Packers, Cardinals

late games: Raiders +7 and +4 Ev 1h; Rams 1h pick and under 27 and under 53.5; Falcons +110 and under 53.5
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4571
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
September 15th, 2019 at 1:43:55 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

15 Sep 2019
Early NFL games looking ok. Packers and Ravens unders will be close, same with Giants teasers and over. Lost everything on the Dolphins. Looking to win everything else -- Lions and under, Packers, Cardinals

late games: Raiders +7 and +4 Ev 1h; Rams 1h pick and under 27 and under 53.5; Falcons +110 and under 53.5



Good luck on late games. My site has Falcons under at 52.5. Hate being too late on the side I like.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4571
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
September 22nd, 2019 at 6:41:51 AM permalink
I can’t get action down on parlaying line and total on Pats and Cowboy large lines. Oh well.

I’ve got a flyer on Detroit +190, under 42 in the Broncos/Packers game and Falcons +1.5. Wish I had jumped in on Falcons earlier, but I’m scratching my head at Falcons being a dog here at all.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
September 22nd, 2019 at 7:03:03 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

I can’t get action down on parlaying line and total on Pats and Cowboy large lines. Oh well.

I’ve got a flyer on Detroit +190, under 42 in the Broncos/Packers game and Falcons +1.5. Wish I had jumped in on Falcons earlier, but I’m scratching my head at Falcons being a dog here at all.



what parlay were you trying. ML and unders?
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4571
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
September 22nd, 2019 at 7:20:39 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

what parlay were you trying. ML and unders?

+ the points on dog with under.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4571
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
September 22nd, 2019 at 11:26:46 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

I can’t get action down on parlaying line and total on Pats and Cowboy large lines. Oh well.

I’ve got a flyer on Detroit +190, under 42 in the Broncos/Packers game and Falcons +1.5. Wish I had jumped in on Falcons earlier, but I’m scratching my head at Falcons being a dog here at all.

Not scratching my head anymore. Indy looks legit.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4571
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
October 3rd, 2019 at 4:46:29 AM permalink
In case anyone wants to root for or against my NFL parlay this week. Starts tonight. I don’t see how Rams are dogs tonight, which usually proves how the Vegas oddsmakers are smarter than me (I had this game Rams -2.5).

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
TomG
TomG
  • Threads: 16
  • Posts: 2426
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
October 27th, 2019 at 5:16:03 PM permalink
Did well on early NFL games today. Disaster on Saturday college, needed Browns to cover late for a winning week, but fell short

On the night game, big on Chiefs 1q and Packers team total over.

Then lot of small action, Chiefs +6, first score a TD, Kelce under, Hill and Jones over, over 4 sacks, and yes on a defense / special team TD.

Baseball: Nationals +1.5, Nationals to score first, and yes on a score in first inning
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4571
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
October 27th, 2019 at 5:18:01 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

Did well on early NFL games today. Disaster on Saturday college, needed Browns to cover late for a winning week, but fell short

On the night game, big on Chiefs 1q and Packers team total over.

Then lot of small action, Chiefs +6, first score a TD, Kelce under, Hill and Jones over, over 4 sacks, and yes on a defense / special team TD.

Baseball: Nationals +1.5, Nationals to score first, and yes on a score in first inning



I’ve got over 8 in baseball and over 47.5 in the football game. I sort of like the Chiefs to cover but told myself I’d lay off unless it kisses +6.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4571
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
June 10th, 2021 at 2:03:10 PM permalink
Interesting line tonight in the Nets/Bucks game. Nets +3.5. Nets are 2-0 in the series and crushed it game 2. Nets have two key injuries but they were out in game 2 also.

On paper you would think Nets are poised to sweep. But Vegas sets the line thinking that Bucks in the hole will pull out the win at home. As far as I can tell from internet data (of uncertain veracity) is that 60% of the money is coming in on the Nets but the line is not moving. In fact some books went to +4.

Always interesting when Vegas seems content to hold a position on a side.

I’m scratching my head. I plopped a bet down on Nets at +3.5 and +140 money line.

Let’s see what happens.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
  • Threads: 326
  • Posts: 9555
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
June 10th, 2021 at 5:08:54 PM permalink
I'm pretty invested in the Avalanche tonight [nhl]

in hockey really seems to be more true than other sports that in a certain game period, one team has all the momentum, just a really clear thing, then the next period it reverses . And in a certain game, you think one team just has the other team dominated, then the next game it reverses. Seems more so than other sports and makes the betting hard.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
billryan
billryan
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
June 10th, 2021 at 5:33:15 PM permalink
As a long-time Net fan, I'm hoping they show up. This is their best team since the back-to-back trips to the finals, and the West doesn't seem all that strong. It would be nuts if the Nets and Islanders win their leagues.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4571
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
June 16th, 2021 at 6:46:33 AM permalink
Tip for the quick. ESPN reported that Kawhi is out tonight and may miss rest of series. The line for the game is down of course. But some books haven’t removed the exact series final winner (4-2 Jazz and 4-3 Jazz) or the future odds to win Western conference.

You may find that you think some of those numbers are +EV.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
mrclarke
mrclarke
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 5
Joined: Jun 18, 2021
June 18th, 2021 at 3:56:47 AM permalink
I am looking for a soccer thread. is there any?
mrclarke
mrclarke
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 5
Joined: Jun 18, 2021
June 20th, 2021 at 1:54:13 PM permalink
No one can see the soccer betting thread? just like this kingofsoccertips . com
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 86
  • Posts: 11596
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
June 25th, 2021 at 7:32:33 PM permalink
If I was making the line on the Stanley Cup I would make Tampa -350 and Montreal +280.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4571
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
January 1st, 2022 at 8:48:21 AM permalink
Here’s my random New Year’s Day college football parlay (and yes, RE Dietz, I get why parlays are dumb bets!):


Enjoy rooting for or against me today. Happy New Year!

Yes I cut off the amount I bet on purpose. Pays 6:1 obviously.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Ace2
Ace2
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 2672
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
January 1st, 2022 at 11:49:30 AM permalink
That’s the smart play. 4.35% edge per game compared to 4.76% making three separate bets
It’s all about making that GTA
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
  • Threads: 232
  • Posts: 6503
Joined: May 8, 2015
Thanked by
odiousgambit
January 2nd, 2022 at 7:12:23 AM permalink
__________
.


a short gambling story:

.

.
"Bettor bets with a bookie and loses all NFL season long

after that he hardly cashes a bet on NBA basketball

it's not much better on college hoops

finally, MLB rolls around and he gets killed

the Bookie says to the bettor: "You might want to try hockey"

the bettor responds:

.
𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙝𝙚𝙡𝙡 𝙙𝙤 𝙄 𝙠𝙣𝙤𝙬 𝙖𝙗𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙝𝙤𝙘𝙠𝙚𝙮"________________________________(-:\


.
Please don't feed the trolls
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 86
  • Posts: 11596
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
January 2nd, 2022 at 2:24:14 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

__________
.


a short gambling story:

.

.
"Bettor bets with a bookie and loses all NFL season long

after that he hardly cashes a bet on NBA basketball

it's not much better on college hoops

finally, MLB rolls around and he gets killed

the Bookie says to the bettor: "You might want to try hockey"

the bettor responds:

.
𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙝𝙚𝙡𝙡 𝙙𝙤 𝙄 𝙠𝙣𝙤𝙬 𝙖𝙗𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙝𝙤𝙘𝙠𝙚𝙮"________________________________(-:\


.
link to original post



Hockey teasers are a great bet if you can get plus 6 for -200 on two teamers like you used to in the Reno area.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10940
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
January 3rd, 2022 at 7:21:46 AM permalink
Aaron Rodgers secured the NFL MVP last night. No one else is really close. They don’t want to give it to a WR (Kupp), who really is not as good as Diggs or Waddle or Chase or Jefferson. They don’t want to give it to a RB (Taylor) who was way behind Henry when Henry got injured.

Rodgers may not even play next weekend so can’t stain his great numbers.

None of the other top QBs have been as consistent as Rodgers. If you can get him laying less than 5-1 it’s free money.

(Unless there are voters like me who would not vote for him solely due to his coronavirus ‘immunized’ lie.)
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4571
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
January 3rd, 2022 at 7:38:24 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Aaron Rodgers secured the NFL MVP last night. No one else is really close. They don’t want to give it to a WR (Kupp), who really is not as good as Diggs or Waddle or Chase or Jefferson. They don’t want to give it to a RB (Taylor) who was way behind Henry when Henry got injured.

Rodgers may not even play next weekend so can’t stain his great numbers.

None of the other top QBs have been as consistent as Rodgers. If you can get him laying less than 5-1 it’s free money.

(Unless there are voters like me who would not vote for him solely due to his coronavirus ‘immunized’ lie.)
link to original post



Rodgers is -450 at most places.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 86
  • Posts: 11596
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
January 3rd, 2022 at 10:33:58 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: SOOPOO

Aaron Rodgers secured the NFL MVP last night. No one else is really close. They don’t want to give it to a WR (Kupp), who really is not as good as Diggs or Waddle or Chase or Jefferson. They don’t want to give it to a RB (Taylor) who was way behind Henry when Henry got injured.

Rodgers may not even play next weekend so can’t stain his great numbers.

None of the other top QBs have been as consistent as Rodgers. If you can get him laying less than 5-1 it’s free money.

(Unless there are voters like me who would not vote for him solely due to his coronavirus ‘immunized’ lie.)
link to original post



Rodgers is -450 at most places.
link to original post



Who is the second favorite now?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
unJon
unJon
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 4571
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
January 3rd, 2022 at 10:38:54 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: unJon

Quote: SOOPOO

Aaron Rodgers secured the NFL MVP last night. No one else is really close. They don’t want to give it to a WR (Kupp), who really is not as good as Diggs or Waddle or Chase or Jefferson. They don’t want to give it to a RB (Taylor) who was way behind Henry when Henry got injured.

Rodgers may not even play next weekend so can’t stain his great numbers.

None of the other top QBs have been as consistent as Rodgers. If you can get him laying less than 5-1 it’s free money.

(Unless there are voters like me who would not vote for him solely due to his coronavirus ‘immunized’ lie.)
link to original post



Rodgers is -450 at most places.
link to original post



Who is the second favorite now?
link to original post





If I bet anything it would be a flyer on Burrow. And maybe Kupp on the off chance he breaks 2,000 yards next week.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
January 3rd, 2022 at 12:46:39 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Aaron Rodgers secured the NFL MVP last night. No one else is really close. They don’t want to give it to a WR (Kupp), who really is not as good as Diggs or Waddle or Chase or Jefferson. They don’t want to give it to a RB (Taylor) who was way behind Henry when Henry got injured.

Rodgers may not even play next weekend so can’t stain his great numbers.

None of the other top QBs have been as consistent as Rodgers. If you can get him laying less than 5-1 it’s free money.

(Unless there are voters like me who would not vote for him solely due to his coronavirus ‘immunized’ lie.)
link to original post



Tom Brady: 40 TD, 12 INT, 66.9% COMP, 4,990 Yards, 311.9 YPG, 100.5 RATE

Aaron Rodgers: 35 TD, 4 INT, 68.6% COMP, 3,997 Yards, 265.1 YPG, 111.1 RATE

It seems like Rodgers is certainly extremely safe with the ball this year, until...

Brady: 456 Completions, 682 Attempts

Rodgers: 352 Completions, 513 Attempts

I don't know...and I obviously have a Brady bias, but I'd think anyone could admit that it's close.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 3577
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
January 3rd, 2022 at 12:52:30 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: DRich

Quote: unJon

Quote: SOOPOO

Aaron Rodgers secured the NFL MVP last night. No one else is really close. They don’t want to give it to a WR (Kupp), who really is not as good as Diggs or Waddle or Chase or Jefferson. They don’t want to give it to a RB (Taylor) who was way behind Henry when Henry got injured.

Rodgers may not even play next weekend so can’t stain his great numbers.

None of the other top QBs have been as consistent as Rodgers. If you can get him laying less than 5-1 it’s free money.

(Unless there are voters like me who would not vote for him solely due to his coronavirus ‘immunized’ lie.)
link to original post



Rodgers is -450 at most places.
link to original post



Who is the second favorite now?
link to original post





If I bet anything it would be a flyer on Burrow. And maybe Kupp on the off chance he breaks 2,000 yards next week.
link to original post



Burrow vs Prescott odds here and Burrow vs Prescott odds for comeback player of the year seem incompatible.
mwalz9
mwalz9
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 754
Joined: Feb 7, 2012
Thanked by
Mission146
January 3rd, 2022 at 1:45:42 PM permalink
I agree Brady vs Rodgers stats are close. I think the team record will then trump it to Rodgers.

If Tampa would've been 1 seed, I think it would go Brady.

In my opinion, Green Bay would be worse without Rodgers than Tampa without Brady.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 10940
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
Thanked by
Mission146
January 3rd, 2022 at 3:34:08 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Quote: SOOPOO

Aaron Rodgers secured the NFL MVP last night. No one else is really close. They don’t want to give it to a WR (Kupp), who really is not as good as Diggs or Waddle or Chase or Jefferson. They don’t want to give it to a RB (Taylor) who was way behind Henry when Henry got injured.

Rodgers may not even play next weekend so can’t stain his great numbers.

None of the other top QBs have been as consistent as Rodgers. If you can get him laying less than 5-1 it’s free money.

(Unless there are voters like me who would not vote for him solely due to his coronavirus ‘immunized’ lie.)
link to original post



Tom Brady: 40 TD, 12 INT, 66.9% COMP, 4,990 Yards, 311.9 YPG, 100.5 RATE

Aaron Rodgers: 35 TD, 4 INT, 68.6% COMP, 3,997 Yards, 265.1 YPG, 111.1 RATE

It seems like Rodgers is certainly extremely safe with the ball this year, until...

Brady: 456 Completions, 682 Attempts

Rodgers: 352 Completions, 513 Attempts

I don't know...and I obviously have a Brady bias, but I'd think anyone could admit that it's close.
link to original post



I’ve watched them both all year. Brady had more clunker games than Rodgers. But…. Thanks for the comparison! The 111 versus 100 rating is a pretty big difference. The interceptions difference also pretty significant. I also believe Rodgers played one less game. But Brady’s season at his age is, well, one for the ages! When Brady hits 5,000 at age 44….. yowza!
Mission146
Mission146
  • Threads: 142
  • Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
January 3rd, 2022 at 3:56:54 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



I’ve watched them both all year. Brady had more clunker games than Rodgers. But…. Thanks for the comparison! The 111 versus 100 rating is a pretty big difference. The interceptions difference also pretty significant. I also believe Rodgers played one less game. But Brady’s season at his age is, well, one for the ages! When Brady hits 5,000 at age 44….. yowza!
link to original post



Not only that, but Brady is also only the second QB of all-time to have back-to-back seasons with 40 (or more) Touchdowns.

My argument in favor of Brady is that he wins in both yards and touchdowns per game. Beyond that, when you look at his completions and attempts per game, on the offensive side of the football, it becomes clear that TB leans on the passing game a lot more than Green Bay does. The Buccaneers have rushed 54 fewer times and for nearly 200 fewer yards (team stats) than have the Green Bay Packers.

That said, it is a substantial difference in QB Rating and, even if I gave Rodgers 12 INT's for the season, his RATE would still be a little bit better than Brady's by virtue of his ridiculous TD's/Attempts percentage (6.8% compared to 5.9% for Brady) and his yards per attempt (7.8 compared to 7.3 for Brady).

Green Bay's defense has also been ever so slightly better than Tampa Bay's this year, but probably not enough that it should really be a factor.

Which of the two guys is most valuable to the team? How much do you isolate this season in deciding that? An argument for Brady is that TB won a Super Bowl the first year that Brady was with the team, so that's a pretty big endorsement and, for the second season in a row, he is having one of the best seasons of his young career.

As a Tom Brady fan, I think it's a coin flip...so you're probably right to go Rodgers.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
  • Jump to: