US Open
I have the following outstanding futures bets on the Womens' US Open:
Andreescu 14:1
Bencic 40:1
They are facing each other in the semifinals tonight.
I placed a 1 unit hedge on Andreescu earlier, and ~5.5 units against Bencic (most of that was when she faced #1 and defending champ Osaka).
I realize I violated one of the Wizard's Commandments by hedging these bets, but my plan was to wait until the fourth round to start "peeling off" some of the potential profit. My 3 other futures (2 on the mens' side, plus Keys at 14:1) all failed in the 4th round, and I netted break-even to +1 unit on each one through hedging.
Obviously my thought was to let it ride tonight, since one of my two players will make the final. If her opponent in the final is Serena Williams, I expect Serena to be at least a -200 favorite. I thought I could surely guarantee a profit in the final, but when I ran the numbers, if it's Serena across the net, I won't be able to lock in a profit that covers the 8.5 units I have invested. Maybe my math is wrong, I don't do a lot of futures wagering, but I do understand the max profit formula for hedging. I expect that if Serena loses tonight, my player will be favored in the final, or at least a coin-flip.
It seems ridiculous that I will find one of my longshots in the final and could lose money!
Andreescu wins: Collect 15 units. Invested 2 units to date.
Bencic wins: Collect 41 units. Invested 6.5 units to date.
Any suggestions? My first instinct was to bet a little on Andreescu tonight to "even out" my two futures. (It's really just another hedge on my Bencic bet).
Also, Serena is -120 to win the title right now - those are much better odds than her semifinal match. I could place a bet on Serena to win it now, which will give me a better price than trying to hedge in the final? I do think Serena will win tonight.
Thanks in advance!
I would like to see Andreescu win but I don't think a first time participant has ever won the open and I would be shocked if it happened this year,
It appears the Serena match is first tonight, so you'll have a better idea before your two players square off.
Quote: ChoppinBroccoliLesson learned. I never thought slicing off 4.5 units of a potential 40 unit profit (to protect against the #1 player in the world) could make things so complicated.
Serena is currently ranked 8th in the world not number one.
Quote: DRichSerena is currently ranked 8th in the world not number one.
I hedged 4.5 units when Bencic faced Osaka. It's that hedge that is going to bite me if Andreescu wins tonight.
Quote: ChoppinBroccoliLesson learned. I never thought slicing off 4.5 units of a potential 40 unit profit (to protect against the #1 player in the world) could make things so complicated.
Your profit comes from +ev bets. Not from outcome. In the long run.
Every time you pay juice on your hedge, you are giving the book a refund.
Bet a smaller amount initially so you are comfortable riding it out.
Quote: unJonI see Serana at -150 to win Open not -120.
I bet it this morning at -120 at William Hill. Just checked, still -120 at William Hill.
Quote: DRichSerena is currently ranked 8th in the world not number one.
Serena is coming off injuries, but the quality of her play in the US Open has been very high. She appears to be moving very well.
When Serena is reasonably healthy, she is still the favorite to win any Women's Singles tournament, whether she is ranked #1 or #100. Every high-ranked female tennis player acknowledges this - as does every Tennis broadcast analyst.
I would bet on Serena.
I favor Medvedev in the Men's draw.
Andreescu 1U @ +1400
Serena 1.2U @ -120 (placed before semifinals)
Andreescu 0.5 U +480 2-0 sets (given Serena's recent major finals history)
If they offered a prop bet on Serena blaming an umpire/judge/injury if something goes wrong, I would be all over it.
Quote: DRichMaybe the first time Serena played someone that hit the ball as hard as she does.
IMO, Serena's serve deserted her. Her first serve percentages were horrible. If she has it, she wins going away. Without it, she makes it at least competitive.
She averages 74% of first service in play. Yesterday she made only 44% first serves (34 of 77).
But she practices regularly against men who hit harder than she does, including her coach, so I don't think another woman hitting hard was that big an adjustment. She also only converted 3 of 8 break points, where Bianca converted 6 of 13. So Serena 90% beat herself.
Not intending to take anything away from Bianca. But if Serena makes even her average percentage of first serves in play (where she's 100% in control of the pacing, placement, spin) she wins both sets she lost. I mean, her first game serving, she double-faulted twice to lose it and immediately start out behind. She double-faulted 8 -8!- times to Bianca's 3. That's either injury or mental errors, not anything Bianca did.
Pretty good stats breakdown here:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/sport/live/2019/sep/07/us-open-women-final-bianca-andreescu-serena-williams-live
Quote: beachbumbabsIMO, Serena's serve deserted her. Her first serve percentages were horrible. If she has it, she wins going away. Without it, she makes it at least competitive.
She averages 74% of first service in play. Yesterday she made only 44% first serves (34 of 77).
But she practices regularly against men who hit harder than she does, including her coach, so I don't think another woman hitting hard was that big an adjustment. She also only converted 3 of 8 break points, where Bianca converted 6 of 13. So Serena 90% beat herself.
Not intending to take anything away from Bianca. But if Serena makes even her average percentage of first serves in play (where she's 100% in control of the pacing, placement, spin) she wins both sets she lost. I mean, her first game serving, she double-faulted twice to lose it and immediately start out behind. She double-faulted 8 -8!- times to Bianca's 3. That's either injury or mental errors, not anything Bianca did.
Pretty good stats breakdown here:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/sport/live/2019/sep/07/us-open-women-final-bianca-andreescu-serena-williams-live
Agree that Serena at her best beats Bianca at her best every time. But of course that's not how it happens. You say 'injury or mental errors'. I say she just is not as good as she used to be at her advanced age (for top level women's tennis). She is the GOAT for sure, but just as Brady is still great, he is not the best QB today. I am not sure if Serena will ever ascend to number one again. But she is still certainly one of the top players today.
Quote: SOOPOOAgree that Serena at her best beats Bianca at her best every time. But of course that's not how it happens. You say 'injury or mental errors'. I say she just is not as good as she used to be at her advanced age (for top level women's tennis). She is the GOAT for sure, but just as Brady is still great, he is not the best QB today. I am not sure if Serena will ever ascend to number one again. But she is still certainly one of the top players today.
Yet just 2 days before that, Serena beat Svitolina with 58% of first serves in, and just 1 double fault. Similar stats to all her matches leading up to the final, just in the last 2 weeks.
It was a mental letdown. Heck, she was down a set and 5-1, and the crowd lifted her to 5-5 somehow. She just couldn't sustain it once she found it. But I disagree she's too old this year. I think she has one more year left, at least, and some room to continue to get her consistency and mental game back.
Quote: beachbumbabsYet just 2 days before that, Serena beat Svitolina with 58% of first serves in, and just 1 double fault. Similar stats to all her matches leading up to the final, just in the last 2 weeks.
It was a mental letdown. Heck, she was down a set and 5-1, and the crowd lifted her to 5-5 somehow. She just couldn't sustain it once she found it. But I disagree she's too old this year. I think she has one more year left, at least, and some room to continue to get her consistency and mental game back.
I thought her behavior at previous tournaments in berating officials left something to be desired, so I would usually root against her. In general I consider her a bad sport.
But I am always in awe of a top level athlete who regains her amazing abilities after having a baby. I wish there was a way she and Federer could team up for a Wimbledon mixed doubles run....
Quote: beachbumbabsShe double-faulted 8 -8!- times to Bianca's 3. That's either injury or mental errors, not anything Bianca did.
Well, I don't totally agree. Bianca was successfully returning Serena's serve -particularly her 2nd serve, so Serena adopted a strategy of going all out on her serve, hitting it as hard as she could -resulting in more aces and more double faults. Most of her double faults were in the 2nd set, I believe and this strategy played a part in it.
Quote: beachbumbabsYet just 2 days before that, Serena beat Svitolina with 58% of first serves in, and just 1 double fault. Similar stats to all her matches leading up to the final, just in the last 2 weeks.
It was a mental letdown. Heck, she was down a set and 5-1, and the crowd lifted her to 5-5 somehow. She just couldn't sustain it once she found it. But I disagree she's too old this year. I think she has one more year left, at least, and some room to continue to get her consistency and mental game back.
Svitolina took the same tack as Serena's QF opponent, just trying to extend the point. That's not how you beat her.
The commentators, while generally annoying, made a good observation during the Andreescu/Bencic SF. In essence, Bencic plays an excellent high-percentage game while Bianca is high "variance" - more winners and more errors. I thought Andreescu hit some great returns (even of first serves) yesterday, and that put in Serena's mind that she had to go for aces. Bianca was even hitting excellent returns of some of Serena's first serves that were OUT. She got in Serena's head - she was unafraid and had a great gameplan.
I think if Bencic had won the SF, she would have suffered the same fate as Serena's opponents in the previous two rounds. You can't beat Serena by playing it safe.
Getting Serena to "90% beat herself" IS beating her.
Medvedez seems like quite a future contender.
"Nadal won, but Medvedev became a huge star." Medvedev is fantastic!
