ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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September 5th, 2019 at 3:27:03 AM permalink
HI

I was wondering what the estimated chance of winning is for same game parlay below:

Game: New Mexico State vs Alabama

I had $250 on N M State @ +55.5/ Under 64.5, odds $3.40 (+240)

Can you also tell me the estimated winning chances for the plays below.

1. Alabama @ -55.5/ Over 64.5, odds $3.90

2. Central Michigan @ +35.5/ Under 52.5, odds $3.40

3. Wisconsin @ -35.5/ Over 52.5, odds $3.80

note: i know these are called correlated plays/parlays, so the play probably won't last very long.

If there is a formula you can tell me to work out the estimated chances, then it would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks in advance

----------------
For a bit of a laugh I decided to post my strangest "arb-ish" bet ever, and it was:
Alabama for 13,000 AUD @ $1.01 with one book and NM State for 5 USD @ 2500/1 with 5dimes.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Sep 5, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 21st, 2019 at 4:09:54 PM permalink
Here is a list of some of my "same game" bets that i had early on in the week (the first game finished about a day ago, the rest are still pending)
Note 1: I am using at least 2 different sports books/accounts to do this, but I am not expecting it to last long (even though i have been betting on this type of play on average once every 3 weeks, since a bit before September 5th this year)
Note 2: I use mainly Australian online books, and a lot of them write the games as A vs B (so the home team may be in a different spot to normal, compared to the USA way)

MIAMI OHIO V AKRON:
Miami Ohio -31.5 / Over 43.5, 340 @ 4.00 (at the time of the bet, i gave it an estimated 31-32% chance)
Akron +31.5 / Under 43.5, 425 @ 3.20 (at the time of the bet, i gave it an estimated 38-39% chance)

Note: once i already had my bets down for the week, i noticed that roughly within 24 hours of game-time, they put additional odds up for the quarter and half- time doubles as well, see below:

1st Half:
Miami Ohio -17.5 / Over 24.5 @ 5.00
Akron +17.5 / Under 24.5 @ 2.75

1st Quarter:
Miami Ohio -7.5 / Over 10.5 ?
Akron +7.5 / Under 10.5 ?

?: I can't remember the exact odds for each, but I do remember the combined odds was between 1.75 and 1.80

Now that i know this, i will probably split my bet into 3 and bet on all 3 markets.

Above was this weeks best/biggest college football bet, but I have bet something on 7*** other college games this week that have a 40%+ line to total ratio

***; Too bad they don't have the Alabama/W Carolina game up, it has a 57 line and a 61 total (with 5dimes)

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Also early in the week i had 6 NFL bets, that have "none to weak negative correlation", but I still think i got good value because of the odds received at the time

Houston Texans V Indianapolis Colts

HOUSTON TEXANS (Money-line) and under 45.5 @ 3.73
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+3.5) and over 45.5 @ 4.54

Combined odds: 2.047...
-----------
Cincinnati Bengals V Pittsburgh Steelers

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Money-line) and under 39 @ 3.09
CINCINNATI BENGALS (+6.5) and over 39 @ 5.28

Combined odds: 1.949...
-----------
New England Patriots V Dallas Cowboys

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (Money-line) and under 46 @ 3.28
DALLAS COWBOYS (+6) and over 46 @ 4.84

Combined odds: 1.955...
----------

Again, I am still looking for a formula*** to work out the estimated chances for correlated play, as my way of working out the estimated chances for college football correlated plays isn't the best way (i am just using other sports books odds, combined mainly with the information on the WoO sports betting page).

***: But i did find a website that said ~70% of games where the favorite covered a spread of 35 (or more) went over, so that was a bit helpful
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 21, 2019
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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ksdjdj
November 21st, 2019 at 7:20:23 PM permalink
Most US books won’t accept a parlay of a very big favorite with a total bet. For instance the Akron/Miami-OH game is not a parlay a US book would accept.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 21st, 2019 at 11:51:36 PM permalink
Yeah, most Australian books won't accept those kind of parlays, or if they do put up odds for" big lines to totals" it will not be roughly $3.60 for each line/total double, instead it may look like the LSU V ARKANSAS game below:
Current lines for singles: LSU -43.5 and total @ 69.5
Current lines for line/total doubles:

LSU Tigers -37.5/Over 69.5 @ 2.25
LSU Tigers -37.5/Under 69.5 @ 3.60
ARK +37.5/Over 69.5 @ 8.00
ARK +37.5/Under 69.5 @ 3.40

https://tab.ubet.com/sports/american-football/college/ncaaf-games/lsu-v-arkansas-24-11

The link above is one of the 3 books i use to estimate what "the fair chances" should be for the parlays I plan to bet on, after adjusting*** for the differences in lines and/or total, if any.
***: mainly using the info on the Wizard of Odds sports betting page, in conjunction with pinnacle sports whenever possible, for working out any adjustments.

Note the actual Parlay that i got is below:
LSU Tigers -44.5/Over 71.5, 275 @ 3.70
ARK +44.5/Under 71.5, 300 @ 3.40

-------
Also some good and bad news about my bets today:

Good: I won on my normal bets, and I got a $30 bonus bet up @ $24, so I was paid $690 (they don't pay the stake for bonus bets, but that is normal for most bet bonuses here)

Bad: they have cancelled all my future bonuses, so I will have to just hope they keep putting up good odds for me.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 22, 2019
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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ksdjdj
November 22nd, 2019 at 8:59:08 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj



Bad: they have cancelled all my future bonuses, so I will have to just hope they keep putting up good odds for me.



You'd better get lucky and lose the next one before you're not allowed to bet there at all.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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Mission146Rigondeaux
November 23rd, 2019 at 2:52:51 AM permalink
Hope I lose a little bit for the next ones too (while my bets are still relatively small).
Good news: even though they don't offer me "money-back" type bonuses anymore, I am getting some "odds up bonuses", up to 3 per day at the moment, one of the games i got this for is below:

Had $75 @ $5.00*** for the Sea-hawks money-line into Under 48, in the game coming up vs the Eagles.

***: I can't remember the odds exactly, but this bet was either $4.42 or $4.52 before i got the "odds up bonus" (i had the bet 13-14 hours ago, so don't know if that is still "good value")
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 23, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 23rd, 2019 at 10:59:48 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Hope I lose a little bit for the next ones too (while my bets are still relatively small)....


"Be careful what you wish for", i guess

I lost an average of $300 a game on all 7 other college games doing the correlated plays, but my friend that lives in a different time-zone sent me a text that i could now bet on the "spread x total double" for the Alabama v W Carolina game.
My phone was set to "do not disturb" so I missed out big time (I would have bet at least $2000 to win about $1600*** for that game).
***: if i got this bet down, i would have been up $95 for the week, instead of being down $1505.
Note: I live in Australia so a lot of the college games started at 3 in the morning (my local time)

----
Darn it, wish i didn't need my "beauty sleep", or I would stay awake 24/7.
: )
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 24th, 2019 at 4:57:06 PM permalink
I am currently down roughly $100 for the week, as I won on most of the NFL^^^ games I have bet on so far:
^^^: some games I had bet on were not posted in this thread
Note: if the bet below loses, I am down about $1,010 for the week.

Below is the last game I am betting on today:
49ERS v PACKERS

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (money-line) and UNDER 48, 530 @ 3.84
GREEN BAY PACKERS (+3) and OVER 48, 380 @ 5.42
Combined odds: ~2.24

On the flip side they are offering these "terrible*** " odds below:
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (money-line) and OVER 48 @ 2.60 and
GREEN BAY PACKERS (+3) and UNDER 48 @ 2.85
Combined odds: ~1.36

***: Even if I end up losing on my bets it still doesn't change the fact that those odds are awful.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 24, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 25th, 2019 at 1:34:43 AM permalink
My 49ERS (money-line) and UNDER 48 bet won, so I am up ~$1,010 for the week so far.

Also, i have the following bets in the Los Angeles Rams V Baltimore Ravens game:
BALTIMORE RAVENS (Money line) and UNDER 47, 400 @ 3.92
LOS ANGELES RAMS (+3.5) and OVER 47, 320 @ 4.88
Combined odds: ~2.17...
Using current pinnacle sports odds for this game. these bets have a combined ~56.7.% chance of winning
Based on Pinnacle's odds, the combined edge*** is about+23%
***: I think that is a good enough estimate not to need to look for ways of "adjusting it up/down" for any other theories you could have, eg thinking that "favs and over" and "dogs and under" have slightly higher chances, could be one plausible theory to believe in.
Note: if they offered the same, or similar odds to the ones i got above, i would personally prefer to bet on the "favs/over" or "dogs/under" double, in general.

----
FYI (the odds for the "bad" doubles for this game are below):

BALTIMORE RAVENS (money line) and OVER 47, @ 2.40
LOS ANGELES RAMS (+3.5) and UNDER 47, @ 3.00

Combined odds: ~1.33 (or -300)
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Nov 25, 2019

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