2019 WoV Picks game (discussion thread)

Quote: onenickelmiracle

There is some yes, but I look at past winners and contenders who had really good track records and have been slumping in mediocrity. Maybe I should try harder, but the 1 minute making my picks is saving time for other things worth more. I'm not watching games nor coverage, so I'm hurting I think and so be it.

I'm not sure if it's because of the changes in the game to allow more high scoring games, and the mismatch of spread vs actual within teams, but I usually bet unders and dogs and have been getting crushed.

If i bet a favorite it's because the market lines show they should be 11 pt favorites but the lines here would show 9.5 or 9. With teams in tank mode (dolphins, Redskins, etc) favorites might not be favorited enough to make a fair line. I bet cowboys vs dolphins and Patriots vs Redskins earlier in the season and did well.

I still hate betting spreads. Not a big fan of hoping a favorite hangs on by 14 in the 4th quarter, or dogs to get a meaningless td to cover at the end.

Quote: djatc

I still hate betting spreads. Not a big fan of hoping a favorite hangs on by 14 in the 4th quarter, or dogs to get a meaningless td to cover at the end.

Can't the same be said for betting the Over/Unders? When betting the Over, hoping a team, any team, scores late in the game to put the total over, or when betting Unders, knowing you've already lost by the end of the 3rd Quarter?

Quote: EdCollins

Can't the same be said for betting the Over/Unders? When betting the Over, hoping a team, any team, scores late in the game to put the total over, or when betting Unders, knowing you've already lost by the end of the 3rd Quarter?

The big thing is that scores cant be taken back so once you are over, bet wins, as opposed to point spreads where you could be winning or losing until the final play if it's close. I like totals as well especially if I'm driving or not able to sit at a computer to keep track of all teams and how many points they can fade or need.

Quote: unJon

Quote: EdCollins

Please note that if you plan on making a pick on the Panthers/Buccaneers game, you will need to get your picks in a tad earlier than the normal Sunday 10:00 am EST deadline.

That game's being played in London and kickoff is scheduled for 9:30 am EST.

As I recall, a pick on that game submitted after the kickoff would result in an automatic loss AND would make you ineligible for the You Suck and Most Average prizes.

How does that interact with the ONM prize for timing of submission? :-/

You have to comply with WOV picks games first and foremost. If you're trying to pick this Carolina game, you'll need to submit 5 minutes before this earlier deadline.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

Quote: unJon

Quote: EdCollins

Please note that if you plan on making a pick on the Panthers/Buccaneers game, you will need to get your picks in a tad earlier than the normal Sunday 10:00 am EST deadline.

That game's being played in London and kickoff is scheduled for 9:30 am EST.

As I recall, a pick on that game submitted after the kickoff would result in an automatic loss AND would make you ineligible for the You Suck and Most Average prizes.

How does that interact with the ONM prize for timing of submission? :-/

You have to comply with WOV picks games first and foremost. If you're trying to pick this Carolina game, you'll need to submit 5 minutes before this earlier deadline.

Would also have to include the London game, if using that deadline. Otherwise you're more than 5 minutes to deadline.

I figured out why some lines from 2 weeks ago were not being parsed correctly. Normally after the Total there is a u. On a couple of lines there was a o instead. I'll try and fix this soon, but can't make any guarantees.

Quote: unJon

How does that interact with the ONM prize for timing of submission? :-/

You just couldn't pick that game.

EDIT: Never mind, just saw ONM's message. I'll look for Picks made within five minutes of that game starting and count them to Sunday qualifiers.

Quote: miplet

I figured out why some lines from 2 weeks ago were not being parsed correctly. Normally after the Total there is a u. On a couple of lines there was a o instead. I'll try and fix this soon, but can't make any guarantees.

Hell, it wasn't my fault? That's awesome! Thanks, Miplet! I'll make sure to keep an eye out, I did double check everything this week.

Greetings!

The Week 6 Picks are as follows:

Mission146:
Seahawks -1.5
Steelers +7
Chiefs -4.5
Eagles +3
Cowboys -7-CONFIDENCE

unJon:
Saints +1-confidence
Buccaneers +2.5
Seahawks -1.5
Cowboys -7
Redskins -3.5

Joeman:
Seahawks -1.5 -Confidence
Cowboys -7
Packers -4
Steelers +7
49ers UNDER 50.5

SOOPOO:
Saints +1 confidence
Texans +4.5
Seahawks -1.5
Cowboys -7
Bengals +11

GenWyzgy:
Eagles +3
Chiefs OVER 55 Confidence
Seahawks -1.5
Browns OVER 46
Falcons OVER 51.5

GWAE:
Seahawks -1.5
Saints +1
Falcons -2.5
Cowboys -7 confidence
Steelers +7

IndyJeffrey:
Bengals +11
Seahawks -1.5
Chiefs -4.5-Confidence
Eagles +3
Packers -4

Onenickelmiracle:
Saints (+1)
Saints O 43.5-confidence
49ers (+3)
Falcons (-2.5)
Cowboys (-7)

mwalz9:
CHIEFS - 4.5 -CONFIDENCE
SEAHAWKS -1.5
REDSKINS -3.5
TITANS +2
CHARGERS -7

JohnnyQ:
Buccaneers (+2.5)
Seahawks (-1.5) CONFIDENCE
Broncos (-2)
Chargers (-7)
Packers (-4)

Paradigm:
Lions +4-Confidence
49ers +3
Texans +4.5
Browns +1.5
Steelers +7

MidwestAP:
Buccaneers +2.5
Seahawks -1.5
Texans UNDER 55 - Confidence
Falcons UNDER 51.5
Packers -4

Michael99000:
Panthers OVER 47.5
Bengals UNDER 48
Seahawks UNDER 46
Texans OVER 55
Saints UNDER 43.5 Confidence

EdCollins:
Chargers -7
Seahawks -1.5 Confidence
Ravens -11
49ers +3
Cowboys -7

FourFiveFace:
Bengals +11-Confidence
Jaguars -1
Cardinals +2.5
Jets +7
Steelers +7

Odiousgambit:
Jaguars (-1)
49ers (+3)-confidence
Panthers (-2.5)
Chiefs (-4.5)
Chargers (-7)

JohnZimbo:
Jets +7
Jets over 44.5
Chargers -7
Buccaneers +2.5
Texans over 55 confidence

scolist:
Panthers -2.5
Seahawks -1.5 Confidence
49ers +3
Saints +1
Packers -4

Wizard:
Texans (+4.5)
Vikings (-3)
Rams (-3)
Steelers (+7) confidence
Jets (+7)

miplet:
Texans +4.5
Jaguars -1-confidence
Vikings -3
Titans +2
Steelers +7

DJATC:
Texans +4.5
Jaguars -1 -CONFIDENCE
Vikings -3
Steelers +7
Lions UNDER 47

Gordonm888:
Bengals +11
Texans +4.5 - Confidence
Cardinals +2.5
Jets +7
Steelers +7

PlayYourCardsRight:
Browns +1.5
Chiefs -4.5
Vikings -3
49ers +3
Packers -4 CONFIDENCE

kuma:
Jaguars -1 -- confidence
Vikings -3
Redskins over 41
Steelers +7
Packers under 47

Sparty10k:
Falcons -2.5
Saints over 43.5
Jets +7
Titans +2–confidence
Packers -4

JW17:
Broncos -2 confidence
Cardinals +2.5
Chiefs -4.5
Packers -4
Dolphins +3.5

RisingDough:
Bengals+11
Browns+1.5
Vikings-3
Steelers+7
Packers UNDER 47 *CONFIDENCE

prozema:
Browns +1.5
Jaguars -1 Confidence
Redskins -3.5
Redskins OVER 41
Lions UNDER 47

Ayecarumba:
Chiefs -4.5 Confidence
Texans Over 55
49ers +3
Saints +1
Jaguars Under 43.5

Rdw4potus:
Packers -4
Rams -3 confidence
Vikings -3
Saints +1
Seahawks -1.5

Bruce1:
Titans OVER 40.5
Steelers OVER 41.5
Cowboys OVER 44.5
Eagles OVER 44
Falcons OVER 51.5

PERFECTION BONUS WINNERS:

WEEK 2: DJATC ($6.67), Miplet ($6.67) JohnZimbo ($6.67)

WEEK 6 PERFECTION BONUS: $40

OneNickelMiracle-Prozema-Mission Trophy

Qualifying Sunday Picks: 1
Qualifying Early Picks: 8

Okay, here's what remains to be done:

1.) See who is missing.
2.) Check for regular Picks for anyone missing.
3.) Check for default picks for anyone missing.

And, I'll get started on that right now.

1.) Romes, Beachbumbabs, Bruce1

Quote: Mission146

Okay, here's what remains to be done:

1.) See who is missing.
2.) Check for regular Picks for anyone missing.
3.) Check for default picks for anyone missing.

And, I'll get started on that right now.

Babs, Bruce1, Romes. I think that's it.

I'll wait a few minutes before posting the consensus.

Okay, here's what remains to be done:

1.) See who is missing.---DONE
2.) Check for regular Picks for anyone missing.---DONE
3.) Check for default picks for anyone missing.

And, I'll get started on that right now.

1.) Romes, Beachbumbabs, Bruce1

2.) No, consensus is good to go up.

3.) No default picks for Romes. No default picks found for BBB, but I'll check again if she asks. Default Picks for Bruce1 to be added at the bottom of the list.

Quote: Mission146

Okay, here's what remains to be done:

1.) See who is missing.---DONE
2.) Check for regular Picks for anyone missing.---DONE
3.) Check for default picks for anyone missing.

And, I'll get started on that right now.

1.) Romes, Beachbumbabs, Bruce1

2.) No, consensus is good to go up.

thanks for the update. I will start on my bets as well.

Week 6 Consensus

Game	Line	Total	Visitor	Home	Over	Under
New York Giants @ New England Patriots	-	-
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.5	47.5	2	4	1
Seattle Seahawks @ Cleveland Browns	1.5	46	17	4	1	1
New Orleans Saints @ Jacksonville Jaguars	-1	43.5	9	10	3	3
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs	-4.5	55	7	10	6	2
Washington Redskins @ Miami Dolphins	3.5	41	3	1	2
Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings	-3	44	3	7	1
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens	-11	48	6	1		1
Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals	2.5	51.5	3	3	2	1
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams	-3	50.5	8	3		1
Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos	-2	40.5	4	3	1
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets	7	44.5	9	5	2
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Chargers	-7	41.5	12	5	1
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers	-4	47	2	10		5

(Edited to now include Bruce1's picks.)

Since I have no pick on the Lions/Packers game, I'm now hoping for the Lions to cover in a high scoring game. The equivalent of 15 picks like the Pack and Under.

LOTS of interest, for both sides, on the Saints/Jags game.

Not much love for the Chargers, compared to that of the Steelers. Likewise with the Browns, compared to that of the Seahawks.

Quote: EdCollins

Since I have pick on the Lions/Packers game, I'm now hoping for the Lions to cover in a high scoring game. The equivalent of 15 picks like the Pack and Under.

LOTS of interest, for both sides, on the Saints/Jags game.

Not much love for the Chargers, compared to that of the Steelers. Likewise with the Browns, compared to that of the Seahawks.

We're good, I can confirm no Default Picks for BBB.

I'm not anyone's daddy, but if you've missed a week, I strongly suggest throwing me a PM with Default Picks. It's really easy, just list sixteen NFL teams by nickname so there's no ambiguity. Title the PM: "DEFAULT PICKS," if you want to be really nice.

Understand this, I feel bad for Romes, but the exact reason Default Picks exist is so that multiple weeks can be missed and a person still has a reasonable chance. Additionally, they remain in contention for the other prizes. If I was playing this game as opposed to running it, I would put Default Picks in, and if I do miss a week somehow, I will be sending OneNickelMiracle and BBB my Default Picks. I'll be doing the same if I intentionally skip a week.

THE PICKS MENTIONED ABOVE

I picked both of the last two games mentioned and I'll tell you my reasoning:

Steelers/Chargers: I like the Steelers in this one to cover because the AFC North is really weak this year, so they're still in reasonable contention for a playoff spot, but they absolutely must win this game. The Browns have a tough schedule the next several weeks, so BAL is really going to be the big obstacle. I also think the defense played really well last week and that roughing the passer call on what would have been 3rd and 9 was huge. The Defense looked poised for a big stop. I don't know how you can, "Rough," a passer who still has the damn ball, but there you go.

Browns/Seahawks: The Browns suck.

Quote: EdCollins

Since I have no pick on the Lions/Packers game, I'm now hoping for the Lions to cover in a high scoring game. The equivalent of 15 picks like the Pack and Under.

LOTS of interest, for both sides, on the Saints/Jags game.

Not much love for the Chargers, compared to that of the Steelers. Likewise with the Browns, compared to that of the Seahawks.

yeah in my bets game we have the largest wager of the year on the Seahawks. The line is moving quickly on the game as well. I got it at -1 but I am actually seeing pk at some places. I don't have money on account with where I see it as pk so hopefully that doesnt screw us but I did get it better than what we have in this pick game.

Least picked game was Redskins vs Dolphins. In past weeks, I have made a point of fading the Dolphins but I, too, could not make sense of this game, the 'Who Cares?' bowl.

Just wanting to brag:

I went 5-0 with 1 tie last week .

This week I have gone 5-0 with the Steelers+7 picked in the evening game. (Edit: so Steelers won and I went 6-0 for a perfect week.)

This week I picked Texans +4.5 (vs Chiefs) (confidence), Jets+7 (vs Cowboys) and Cardinals +2.5 and all of these under-dogs won out-right. Also picked the win-less Bengals+11 and they did cover.

Hoo-hah!!! Life is good.

I think I went 5-1, putting me alone in 1st place.

I think my picks are at least two standard deviations from expected.

Quote: gordonm888

Just wanting to brag:

I went 5-0 with 1 tie last week .

This week I have gone 5-0 with the Steelers picked in the evening game.

This week I picked Texans +4.5 (vs Chiefs) (confidence), Jets+7 (vs Cowboys) and Cardinals +2.5 and all of these under-dogs won out-right. Also picked the win-less Bengals+11 and they did cover.

Hoo-hah!!! Life is good.

well thank you and soopoo for making our picks free roll going well so far this season. And no thanks to me for absolutely sucking.

Week 6 Results

Mission146 (2-4)
Seahawks -1.5 (win)
Steelers +7 (win)
Chiefs -4.5 (loss)
Eagles +3 (loss)
Cowboys -7 Confidence (loss)

unJon (3-3)
Saints +1 Confidence (win)
Buccaneers +2.5 (loss)
Seahawks -1.5 (win)
Cowboys -7 (loss)
Redskins -3.5 (loss)

Joeman (4-2)
Seahawks -1.5 Confidence (win)
Cowboys -7 (loss)
Packers -4 (loss)
Steelers +7 (win)
49ers UNDER 50.5 (win)

SOOPOO (5-1)
Saints +1 Confidence (win)
Texans +4.5 (win)
Seahawks -1.5 (win)
Cowboys -7 (loss)
Bengals +11 (win)

GenWyzgy (3-1)
Eagles +3 (loss)
Chiefs OVER 55 Confidence (push)
Seahawks -1.5 (win)
Browns OVER 46 (win)
Falcons OVER 51.5 (win)

GWAE (3-3)
Seahawks -1.5 (win)
Saints +1 (win)
Falcons -2.5 (loss)
Cowboys -7 Confidence (loss)
Steelers +7 (win)

IndyJeffrey (2-4)
Bengals +11 (win)
Seahawks -1.5 (win)
Chiefs -4.5 Confidence (loss)
Eagles +3 (loss)
Packers -4 (loss)

Onenickelmiracle (2-4)
Saints (+1) (win)
Saints OVER 43.5 Confidence (loss)
49ers (+3) (win)
Falcons (-2.5) (loss)
Cowboys (-7) (loss)

mwalz9 (1-5)
CHIEFS - 4.5 Confidence (loss)
SEAHAWKS -1.5 (win)
REDSKINS -3.5 (loss)
TITANS +2 (loss)
CHARGERS -7 (loss)

JohnnyQ (3-3)
Buccaneers (+2.5) (loss)
Seahawks (-1.5) Confidence (win)
Broncos (-2) (win)
Chargers (-7) (loss)
Packers (-4) (loss)

Paradigm (5-1)
Lions +4 Confidence (win)
49ers +3 (win)
Texans +4.5 (win)
Browns +1.5 (loss)
Steelers +7 (win)

MidwestAP (1-3)
Buccaneers +2.5 (loss)
Seahawks -1.5 (win)
Texans UNDER 55 Confidence (push)
Falcons UNDER 51.5 (loss)
Packers -4 (loss)

Michael99000 (4-1)
Panthers OVER 47.5 (win)
Bengals UNDER 48 (win)
Seahawks UNDER 46 (loss)
Texans OVER 55 (push)
Saints UNDER 43.5 Confidence (win)

EdCollins (3-3)
Chargers -7 (loss)
Seahawks -1.5 Confidence (win)
Ravens -11 (loss)
49ers +3 (win)
Cowboys -7 (loss)

FourFiveFace (5-1)
Bengals +11 Confidence (win)
Jaguars -1 (loss)
Cardinals +2.5 (win)
Jets +7 (win)
Steelers +7 (win)

Odiousgambit (3-3)
Jaguars (-1) (loss)
49ers (+3) Confidence (win)
Panthers (-2.5) (win)
Chiefs (-4.5) (loss)
Chargers (-7) (loss)

JohnZimbo (2-2)
Jets +7 (win)
Jets OVER 44.5 (win)
Chargers -7 (loss)
Buccaneers +2.5 (loss)
Texans OVER 55 Confidence (push)

scolist (5-1)
Panthers -2.5 (win)
Seahawks -1.5 Confidence (win)
49ers +3 (win)
Saints +1 (win)
Packers -4 (loss)

Wizard (5-1)
Texans (+4.5) (win)
Vikings (-3) (win)
Rams (-3) (loss)
Steelers (+7) Confidence (win)
Jets (+7) (win)

miplet (3-3)
Texans +4.5 (win)
Jaguars -1 Confidence (loss)
Vikings -3 (win)
Titans +2 (loss)
Steelers +7 (win)

DJATC (4-2)
Texans +4.5 (win)
Jaguars -1 Confidence (loss)
Vikings -3 (win)
Steelers +7 (win)
Lions UNDER 47 (win)

Gordonm888 (6-0)
Bengals +11 (win)
Texans +4.5 Confidence (win)
Cardinals +2.5 (win)
Jets +7 (win)
Steelers +7 (win)

PlayYourCardsRight (2-4)
Browns +1.5 (loss)
Chiefs -4.5 (loss)
Vikings -3 (win)
49ers +3 (win)
Packers -4 Confidence (loss)

kuma (3-3)
Jaguars -1 Confidence (loss)
Vikings -3 (win)
Redskins OVER 41 (loss)
Steelers +7 (win)
Packers UNDER 47 (win)

Sparty10k (1-5)
Falcons -2.5 (loss)
Saints OVER 43.5 (loss)
Jets +7 (win)
Titans +2–Confidence (loss)
Packers -4 (loss)

JW17 (4-2)
Broncos -2 Confidence (win)
Cardinals +2.5 (win)
Chiefs -4.5 (loss)
Packers -4 (loss)
Dolphins +3.5 (win)

RisingDough (5-1)
Bengals +11 (win)
Browns +1.5 (loss)
Vikings -3 (win)
Steelers +7 (win)
Packers UNDER 47 Confidence (win)

prozema (1-5)
Browns +1.5 (loss)
Jaguars -1 Confidence (loss)
Redskins -3.5 (loss)
Redskins OVER 41 (loss)
Lions UNDER 47 (win)

Ayecarumba (3-2)
Chiefs -4.5 Confidence (loss)
Texans OVER 55 (push)
49ers +3 (win)
Saints +1 (win)
Jaguars UNDER 43.5 (win)

Rdw4potus (3-3)
Packers -4 (loss)
Rams -3 Confidence (loss)
Vikings -3 (win)
Saints +1 (win)
Seahawks -1.5 (win)

Bruce1 (3-2)
Titans OVER 40.5 (loss)
Steelers OVER 41.5 (loss)
Cowboys OVER 44.5 (win)
Eagles OVER 44 (win)
Falcons OVER 51.5 (win)

Romes (0-5)
forfeit (loss)
forfeit (loss)
forfeit (loss)
forfeit (loss)
forfeit (loss)



Week 6 Current Standings

Name	Wins	Losses	%
SOOPOO	27	9	75.00%
Gordonm888	25	10	71.43%
EdCollins	25	11	69.44%
miplet	19	9	67.86%
Michael99000	23	11	67.65%
FourFiveFace	23	13	63.89%
unJon	23	13	63.89%
Joeman	22	14	61.11%
scolist	21	14	60.00%
JohnnyQ	20	14	58.82%
DJATC	17	12	58.62%
Bruce1	15	11	57.69%
GenWyzgy	19	14	57.58%
IndyJeffrey	20	16	55.56%
JW17	20	16	55.56%
Paradigm	20	16	55.56%
Mission146	18	15	54.55%
Kuma	19	16	54.29%
prozema	19	16	54.29%
RisingDough	19	16	54.29%
BeachBumBabs	16	14	53.33%
PlayYourCardsRight	16	14	53.33%
MidwestAP	17	15	53.13%
Wizard	18	17	51.43%
Sparty10k	17	19	47.22%
Mwalz9	16	18	47.06%
Onenickelmiracle	14	16	46.67%
rdw4potus	12	15	44.44%
Ayecarumba	15	19	44.12%
GWAE	15	21	41.67%
JohnZimbo	14	20	41.18%
Odiousgambit	13	19	40.63%
Romes	10	18	35.71%
Totals	607	491	55.28%

Record of Skip Weeks

BeachBumBabs: Week #6
Bruce1: Week #1
DJATC: Week #3
miplet: Week #1
Onenickelmiracle: Week #1
PlayYourCardsRight: Week #5
rdw4potus: Week #5
Romes: Week #4, #5, #6



Player Ranking Summary thru Week 6

Player	Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Week 4	Week 5	Week 6
Ayecarumba	12 (3-3)	22 (3-3)	23 (3-3)	27 (2-4)	30 (1-4)	29 (3-2)
BeachBumBabs	7 (4-2)	27 (1-5)	16 (5-1)	22 (2-4)	21 (4-2)	21
Bruce1	-	13 (3-2)	6 (4-1)	13 (2-4)	14 (3-2)	12 (3-2)
DJATC	21 (2-4)	6 (6-0)	7	14 (2-4)	16 (3-2)	11 (4-2)
EdCollins	1 (5-1)	2 (5-1)	2 (4-2)	2 (3-3)	1 (5-1)	3 (3-3)
FourFiveFace	21 (2-4)	22 (4-2)	10 (5-1)	9 (4-2)	9 (3-3)	6 (5-1)
GenWyzgy	12 (3-3)	14 (4-2)	20 (2-3)	20 (3-3)	17 (4-2)	13 (3-1)
Gordonm888	12 (3-3)	14 (4-2)	7 (5-1)	10 (2-4)	5 (5-0)	2 (6-0)
GWAE	28 (1-5)	32 (2-4)	33 (3-3)	32 (3-3)	31 (3-3)	30 (3-3)
IndyJeffrey	21 (2-4)	14 (5-1)	10 (4-2)	10 (3-3)	9 (4-2)	14 (2-4)
Joeman	12 (3-3)	6 (5-1)	16 (2-4)	17 (3-3)	9 (5-1)	8 (4-2)
JohnnyQ	1 (5-1)	14 (2-4)	15 (2-2)	7 (5-1)	8 (3-3)	10 (3-3)
JohnZimbo	21 (2-4)	6 (6-0)	28 (0-6)	32 (1-5)	31 (3-3)	31 (2-2)
JW17	7 (4-2)	6 (4-2)	16 (2-4)	27 (1-5)	21 (5-1)	14 (4-2)
Kuma	12 (3-3)	27 (2-4)	23 (4-2)	17 (4-2)	17 (3-2)	18 (3-3)
Michael99000	21 (2-4)	14 (5-1)	14 (3-2)	6 (5-1)	5 (4-2)	5 (4-1)
MidwestAP	7 (4-2)	6 (4-2)	4 (4-0)	7 (2-4)	14 (2-4)	23 (1-3)
miplet	-	1 (6-0)	1 (5-1)	3 (1-4)	3 (4-1)	4 (3-3)
Mission146	28 (1-5)	22 (5-1)	20 (3-2)	16 (3-2)	12 (4-1)	17 (2-4)
Mwalz9	1 (5-1)	3 (4-2)	10 (2-4)	17 (2-4)	20 (2-2)	26 (1-5)
Odiousgambit	28 (1-5)	31 (2-3)	32 (3-2)	31 (2-3)	33 (2-3)	32 (3-3)
Onenickelmiracle	-	33 (1-5)	23 (5-1)	22 (3-3)	24 (3-3)	27 (2-4)
Paradigm	21 (2-4)	22 (4-2)	28 (2-4)	22 (4-2)	24 (3-3)	14 (5-1)
PlayYourCardsRight	12 (3-3)	6 (5-1)	10 (3-3)	10 (3-3)	13	21 (2-4)
prozema	7 (4-2)	3 (5-1)	5 (4-2)	4 (3-3)	7 (2-3)	18 (1-5)
rdw4potus	12 (3-3)	20 (3-2)	31 (1-4)	30 (2-3)	29	28 (3-3)
RisingDough	12 (3-3)	30 (1-5)	28 (4-2)	27 (3-3)	26 (3-2)	18 (5-1)
Romes	1 (5-1)	6 (3-3)	16 (2-4)	14	28 (0-5)	33 (0-5)
scolist	6 (4-1)	20 (2-4)	20 (3-3)	20 (3-3)	17 (4-2)	9 (5-1)
SOOPOO	1 (5-1)	3 (4-2)	2 (5-1)	1 (4-2)	1 (4-2)	1 (5-1)
Sparty10k	21 (2-4)	27 (3-3)	23 (4-2)	22 (3-3)	21 (4-2)	25 (1-5)
unJon	12 (3-3)	14 (4-2)	7 (5-1)	4 (4-2)	4 (4-2)	6 (3-3)
Wizard	7 (4-2)	22 (2-4)	23 (3-3)	26 (2-3)	27 (2-4)	24 (5-1)

That lions/packers game was such a weird way to cover the under. I guess instead of running it in they played it extremely conservative.

I have 4 straight weeks of 3-3. I think that's impressive

Quote: djatc

That lions/packers game was such a weird way to cover the under. I guess instead of running it in they played it extremely conservative.

It was the right play. By kneeling down on the 2 instead of scoring a TD, the Williams virtually guaranteed the Packers a win. If he scores there, Detroit gets the ball back with 1:00+ to drive down and score a winning TD. A long shot, sure, but much more likely than Crosby missing a 20 yd field goal.

That play affected both the line bet and the over/under. If Williams scores a TD there, the Over covers for sure, and barring a miracle TD drive by the Lions, the Packers cover as well.

ETA: Those two phantom Hands to the Face calls determined the outcome of this game, but my Packers -4 pick was a loser either way.

Quote: Joeman

It was the right play. By kneeling down on the 2 instead of scoring a TD, the Williams virtually guaranteed the Packers a win. If he scores there, Detroit gets the ball back with 1:00+ to drive down and score a winning TD. A long shot, sure, but much more likely than Crosby missing a 20 yd field goal.

That play affected both the line bet and the over/under. If Williams scores a TD there, the Over covers for sure, and barring a miracle TD drive by the Lions, the Packers cover as well.

ETA: Those two phantom Hands to the Face calls determined the outcome of this game, but my Packers -4 pick was a loser either way.

There were an awful lot of bad calls in that game. I thought on both of those calls it wasnt as clearcut as Booger made it seem. The first one he did ride up and at least glance the facemask towards the end of the block. The second one it looks like he at least touched his neck which is apparently included in 'the face'. I agree that they were both bad calls, but not even in the top ten for the NFL week.

I felt the 'rules expert' they used was both extremely annoying, wrong a few times, and just not fun to listen to.

Williams made the obvious correct play. It is only an extremely selfish player that scores. The Lions (poorly coached) should have carried him in. Standing there watching shows lack of smarts. If you wrap him up with 4 big guys and carry him forward the whistle does not blow as FORWARD progress has not been stopped. If I was Detroit coach Williams is carried into the end zone.

By the way, congrats Wiz, oh most MEDIOCRE!

Nice job Gordon going 6-0

Quote: Johnzimbo

Nice job Gordon going 6-0

Thx. I assume I won the $40 prize, but saw nothing posted about that.

I think that the Gambler's Fallacy is not necessarily wrong when it comes to Sports Betting - for example, I feel that after going 11-0 in the past two weeks that I really am more likely to have a losing week. Why? Maybe I get over-confident and put less work into trying to find opportunities with this week's posted lines. There is a human element involved.

Quote: djatc

That lions/packers game was such a weird way to cover the under. I guess instead of running it in they played it extremely conservative.

Thank God, I had a big wager on the under.

I think I still have the "you suck" prize locked up*, correct me if I'm wrong about Romes, I think he's disqualified

so the rest of you guys, definitely go for the "most average"

*to be read by Mission only: yep I realize it's not locked up, I'm trying to convince everyone else they have no chance so they go for the other

Quote: odiousgambit

I think I still have the "you suck" prize locked up*, correct me if I'm wrong about Romes, I think he's disqualified

so the rest of you guys, definitely go for the "most average"

*to be read by Mission only: yep I realize it's not locked up, I'm trying to convince everyone else they have no chance so they go for the other

Oh you are so screwed. I have said in the past that I have a 40% life time football betting rate. Last year I came in 2nd by flipping coins. This year I am trying again and holding strong on my 40%. I have 40% locked up and you will probably head back towards a 50% rate.

Greetings!

The Week 7 Lines are as follows:

Cardinals (+3) @ Giants (-3) O/U 50.5
Texans (+1) @ Colts (-1) O/U 47
Dolphins (+17) @ Bills (-17) O/U 41
Vikings (-1.5) @ Lions (+1.5) O/U 43.5
Raiders (+5) @ Packers (-5) O/U 47
Jaguars (-4.5) @ Bengals (+4.5) O/U 44
Rams (-3) @ Falcons (+3) O/U 55
49ers (-9.5) @ Redskins (+9.5) O/U 41
Chargers (+2.5) @ Titans (-2.5) O/U 41
Ravens (+3) @ Seahawks (-3) O/U 48.5
Saints (+3) @ Bears (-3) O/U 38
Eagles (+2.5) @ Cowboys (-2.5) O/U 49
Patriots (-9.5) @ Jets (+9.5) O/U 44

I really cannot believe that the bills are favored by 17 over anyone or anything! I am officially alerting the forum that I am taking the Dolphins +17 as my confidence pick. Bills 16. Dolphins 13.

Quote: SOOPOO

I really cannot believe that the bills are favored by 17 over anyone or anything! I am officially alerting the forum that I am taking the Dolphins +17 as my confidence pick. Bills 16. Dolphins 13.

Bills unders are 5-0

Quote: SOOPOO

I really cannot believe that the bills are favored by 17 over anyone or anything! I am officially alerting the forum that I am taking the Dolphins +17 as my confidence pick. Bills 16. Dolphins 13.

I feel a large bet about to happen in our bets game on this one.

Quote: GWAE

I feel a large bet about to happen in our bets game on this one.

. I hope not. My "sure things" like this are likely under 50%. Probably better to fade a SOOPOO sure thing than bet with it.

Quote: SOOPOO

. I hope not. My "sure things" like this are likely under 50%. Probably better to fade a SOOPOO sure thing than bet with it.

Lol I know the feeling except you are in the lead so right now I would ride the hot hand.

I cant remember, isnt there a prize for the worst confidence picker? I am 2-4.. anyone worse than that?

Quote: GWAE

I cant remember, isnt there a prize for the worst confidence picker? I am 2-4.. anyone worse than that?

Three others are tied with you, with four losses. (And as I recall, it's just based upon the number of losses... not percentage.)


GenWyzgy's Confidence Side Pool Standings thru Week 6

Player	Conf Wins	Conf Losses
Ayecarumba	2	4
GWAE	2	4
Johnzimbo	1	4
Sparty10k	2	4
IndyJeffrey	3	3
JW17	3	3
kuma	3	3
Mwalz9	2	3
Onenickelmiracle	2	3
Wizard	2	3
Beachbumbabs	3	2
DJatc	3	2
GenWyzgy	2	2
Joeman	4	2
Michael99000	4	2
MidwestAP	2	2
Mission146	2	2
odiousgambit	1	2
PlayYourCardsRight	3	2
rdw4potus	0	2
scolist	3	2
Bruce1	1	1
FourFiveFace	5	1
Gordonm888	5	1
JohnnyQ	4	1
miplet	3	1
Paradigm	5	1
prozema	5	1
RisingDough	5	1
Romes	2	1
SOOPOO	5	1
unJon	5	1
EdCollins	6	0

(I haven't double-checked these results yet. I asked my grading program to generate this chart. It's probably okay but I'll double-check everything later.)

Cardinals (+3) @ Giants (-3)
Texans (+1) @ Colts (-1)(4XXX)
Dolphins (+17)(8XXX) @ Bills (-17)
Vikings (-1.5) @ Lions (+1.5)
Raiders (+5)(5XXX) @ Packers (-5)
Jaguars (-4.5) @ Bengals (+4.5)(3XXXX)
Rams (-3) @ Falcons (+3)
49ers (-9.5) @ Redskins (+9.5)
Chargers (+2.5) @ Titans (-2.5)
Ravens (+3) @ Seahawks (-3)
Saints (+3) @ Bears (-3)
Eagles (+2.5)(11XXX) @ Cowboys (-2.5)
Patriots (-9.5) @ Jets (+9.5)

Last year I took 2nd by doing random bets. Other few seasons I have been in the bottom 3rd and I generally suck at sports betting. I am going back to my random picks for this week. I played online craps and are using my first 5 rolls as my picks. Hard way will be my confidence pick and if there is no hard way it will be the largest roll. I am not doing the O/U, this is just for lines.

Here are my picks for this week. I rolled 4 5 3 11 8 (h). A little sad that my confidence pick ended up on the Dolphins. I think a lot of people will be on that and I don't want to have a $200 bet on it for the bets game.

If it makes you feel better, GWAE, I am not making the Dolphins my confidence pick.

Greetings!

The Week 7 Picks are as follows:

Mission146:
Dolphins +17
Vikings -1.5
Falcons +3
49ers -9.5 CONFIDENCE
Cowboys -2.5

JOHNNYQ:
Colts (-1)
Lions (+1.5) CONFIDENCE
Falcons (+3)
Chargers (+2.5)
Saints (+3)

JW17:
Cardinals +3 Confidence
49ers -9.5
Rams -3
Patriots -9.5
Seahawks - 3

DJATC:
Giants -3
Vikings -1.5
49ers UNDER 41
Chargers OVER 41
Bears -3 -CONFIDENCE

prozema:
Bengals +4.5
49ers -9.5
49ers UNDER 41
Bears -3 Confidence
Bears UNDER 38

EdCollins:
Cowboys -2.5
Giants Under (Confidence)
Cowboys Under
Chargers +2.5
Jaguars -4.5

FourFiveFace:
Colts -1
Dolphins +17
Redskins +9.5
Titans -2.5-Confidence
Jets +9.5

scolist:
Cardinals Under 50.5
Vikings -1.5
Rams Under 55
49ers Over 41 Confidence
Patriots -9.5

RisingDough:
Colts -1 CONFIDENCE
Bengals +4.5
Redskins +9.5
Bears -3
Patriots -9.5

SOOPOO:
Dolphins +17. Confidence
Texans + 1
Saints + 3
Jets + 9.5
Cardinals+3

Michael99000:
Cardinals UNDER 50.5
Texans UNDER 47
Dolphins OVER 41
Vikings OVER 43.5
Raiders UNDER 47 Confidence

Beachbumbabs:
Vikings -1.5 -confidence
Vikings UNDER 43.5
Saints +3
Saints OVER 38
Bills UNDER 41

Ayecarumba:
Patriots-9.5
Saints +3
Chargers +2.5
Bears -Over 38
Packers -5 -Confidence

GenWyzgy:
Falcons OVER 55
Dolphins OVER 41 CONFIDENCE
Packers -5
Giants -3
Eagles OVER 49

kuma:
Redskins under 41
Chargers over 41
Bears -3 -- confidence
Bears under 38
Jets under 44

unJon:
Patriots -9.5-confidence
Dolphins +17
Dolphins UNDER 41
Vikings OVER 43.5
49ers -9.5

GWAE:
Colts -1
Dolphins +17 confidence
Raiders +5
Jaguars -4.5
Eagles +2.5

Johnzimbo:
Saints +3
Bears over 38
Eagles +2.5
Falcons +3 confidence
Cardinals +3

Joeman:
Packers -5 -Confidence
Patriots OVER 44
Rams UNDER 55
49ers -9.5
Jaguars -4.5

Rdw4potus:
Dolphins +17
Packers -5
Saints +3
Eagles +2.5
Seahawks -3 confidence

Sparty10k:
Giants -3-confidence
Vikings -1.5
Jaguars -4.5
Ravens +3
Saints +3

miplet:
Giants -3
Vikings -1.5
Raiders +5
Bears -3
Cowboys -2.5-confidence

Odiousgambit:
Vikings (-1.5)
Jaguars (-4.5)
Saints (+3)
Bills (-17)
Ravens (+3)

MidwestAP:
Texans +1
Dolphins +17
Raiders +5
Rams UNDER 55 - Confidence
Patriots -9.5

Gordonm888:
Colts -1
Lions +1.5
Jaguars -4.5
Rams -3 -Confidence
Cowboys -2.5

Wizard:
Bengals (+4.5)
Titans (-2.5)
Ravens (+3) -- confidence
Bears (-3)
Cowboys (-2.5)

IndyJeffrey:
Lions +1.5
Bengals +4.5
Titans -2.5
Bears -3-confidence
Eagles +2.5

PlayYourCardsRight:
Colts -1
Packers -5
Chargers +2.5
Bears -3 CONFIDENCE
Patriots -9.5

DEFAULT PICKS:

Bruce1:
Titans OVER 41
Giants OVER 50.5
Cowboys OVER 49
Falcons OVER 55
Seahawks OVER 48.5

NOT PICKING: Paradigm, MWalz9, OneNickelMiracle

PERFECTION BONUS WINNERS:

WEEK 2: DJATC ($6.67), Miplet ($6.67) JohnZimbo ($6.67)

WEEK 6: Gordonm888 ($40)

WEEK 7 PERFECTION BONUS: $10

OneNickelMiracle-Prozema-Mission Trophy

Qualifying Sunday Picks: 3
Qualifying Early Picks: 6

Greetings!

1.) I apologize for the slight delay, but I decided to go ahead and get it, "One and done," in the above post, so it took a few extra minutes.

2.) For GWAE's convenience, Default Picks are now listed separately at the bottom and are labeled. Bruce1 is the only player with Default Picks this week.

3.) Paradigm, MWalz9 and OneNickelMiracle are missing this week. I checked twice for Defaults and did not find any, but should any of those mentioned protest, I'll check again.

Thanks.

Nothing for JohnnyQ?

Quote: EdCollins

Thanks.

Nothing for JohnnyQ?

Sorry, those have been added. He sent two PM's, but the Picks were no different and I'd already thought I put them from the first.

Week 7 Consensus

Game	Line	Total	Visitor	Home	Over	Under
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos	-	-
Los Angeles Rams @ Atlanta Falcons	3	55	3	4	2	4
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills	-17	41	9	1	3	2
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals	4.5	44	6	4
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts	-1	47	2	7		1
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions	1.5	43.5	8	4	2	1
Oakland Raiders @ Green Bay Packers	-5	47	3	7		2
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants	-3	50.5	4	5	1	4
San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Redskins	9.5	41	6	2	2	3
Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans	-2.5	41	4	4	3
New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears	-3	38	8	13	3	2
Baltimore Ravens @ Seattle Seahawks	-3	48.5	4	3	1
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys	-2.5	49	4	6	2	1
New England Patriots @ New York Jets	9.5	44	8	2	1	1

Quote: Mission146

Greetings!

1.) I apologize for the slight delay, but I decided to go ahead and get it, "One and done," in the above post, so it took a few extra minutes.

2.) For GWAE's convenience, Default Picks are now listed separately at the bottom and are labeled. Bruce1 is the only player with Default Picks this week.

3.) Paradigm, MWalz9 and OneNickelMiracle are missing this week. I checked twice for Defaults and did not find any, but should any of those mentioned protest, I'll check again.

Thank you for thinking about me, however default picks are always O/U? I am only betting on the spreads.
I should back test O/U to see where those would have been too.

Quote: GWAE

Thank you for thinking about me, however default picks are always O/U? I am only betting on the spreads.
I should back test O/U to see where those would have been too.

Yeah, Mission changed the rules this year where defaults are always overs.