I think my picks are at least two standard deviations from expected.
Quote: gordonm888Just wanting to brag:
I went 5-0 with 1 tie last week .
This week I have gone 5-0 with the Steelers picked in the evening game.
This week I picked Texans +4.5 (vs Chiefs) (confidence), Jets+7 (vs Cowboys) and Cardinals +2.5 and all of these under-dogs won out-right. Also picked the win-less Bengals+11 and they did cover.
Hoo-hah!!! Life is good.
well thank you and soopoo for making our picks free roll going well so far this season. And no thanks to me for absolutely sucking.
Mission146 (2-4)
Seahawks -1.5 (win)
Steelers +7 (win)
Chiefs -4.5 (loss)
Eagles +3 (loss)
Cowboys -7 Confidence (loss)
unJon (3-3)
Saints +1 Confidence (win)
Buccaneers +2.5 (loss)
Seahawks -1.5 (win)
Cowboys -7 (loss)
Redskins -3.5 (loss)
Joeman (4-2)
Seahawks -1.5 Confidence (win)
Cowboys -7 (loss)
Packers -4 (loss)
Steelers +7 (win)
49ers UNDER 50.5 (win)
SOOPOO (5-1)
Saints +1 Confidence (win)
Texans +4.5 (win)
Seahawks -1.5 (win)
Cowboys -7 (loss)
Bengals +11 (win)
GenWyzgy (3-1)
Eagles +3 (loss)
Chiefs OVER 55 Confidence (push)
Seahawks -1.5 (win)
Browns OVER 46 (win)
Falcons OVER 51.5 (win)
GWAE (3-3)
Seahawks -1.5 (win)
Saints +1 (win)
Falcons -2.5 (loss)
Cowboys -7 Confidence (loss)
Steelers +7 (win)
IndyJeffrey (2-4)
Bengals +11 (win)
Seahawks -1.5 (win)
Chiefs -4.5 Confidence (loss)
Eagles +3 (loss)
Packers -4 (loss)
Onenickelmiracle (2-4)
Saints (+1) (win)
Saints OVER 43.5 Confidence (loss)
49ers (+3) (win)
Falcons (-2.5) (loss)
Cowboys (-7) (loss)
mwalz9 (1-5)
CHIEFS - 4.5 Confidence (loss)
SEAHAWKS -1.5 (win)
REDSKINS -3.5 (loss)
TITANS +2 (loss)
CHARGERS -7 (loss)
JohnnyQ (3-3)
Buccaneers (+2.5) (loss)
Seahawks (-1.5) Confidence (win)
Broncos (-2) (win)
Chargers (-7) (loss)
Packers (-4) (loss)
Paradigm (5-1)
Lions +4 Confidence (win)
49ers +3 (win)
Texans +4.5 (win)
Browns +1.5 (loss)
Steelers +7 (win)
MidwestAP (1-3)
Buccaneers +2.5 (loss)
Seahawks -1.5 (win)
Texans UNDER 55 Confidence (push)
Falcons UNDER 51.5 (loss)
Packers -4 (loss)
Michael99000 (4-1)
Panthers OVER 47.5 (win)
Bengals UNDER 48 (win)
Seahawks UNDER 46 (loss)
Texans OVER 55 (push)
Saints UNDER 43.5 Confidence (win)
EdCollins (3-3)
Chargers -7 (loss)
Seahawks -1.5 Confidence (win)
Ravens -11 (loss)
49ers +3 (win)
Cowboys -7 (loss)
FourFiveFace (5-1)
Bengals +11 Confidence (win)
Jaguars -1 (loss)
Cardinals +2.5 (win)
Jets +7 (win)
Steelers +7 (win)
Odiousgambit (3-3)
Jaguars (-1) (loss)
49ers (+3) Confidence (win)
Panthers (-2.5) (win)
Chiefs (-4.5) (loss)
Chargers (-7) (loss)
JohnZimbo (2-2)
Jets +7 (win)
Jets OVER 44.5 (win)
Chargers -7 (loss)
Buccaneers +2.5 (loss)
Texans OVER 55 Confidence (push)
scolist (5-1)
Panthers -2.5 (win)
Seahawks -1.5 Confidence (win)
49ers +3 (win)
Saints +1 (win)
Packers -4 (loss)
Wizard (5-1)
Texans (+4.5) (win)
Vikings (-3) (win)
Rams (-3) (loss)
Steelers (+7) Confidence (win)
Jets (+7) (win)
miplet (3-3)
Texans +4.5 (win)
Jaguars -1 Confidence (loss)
Vikings -3 (win)
Titans +2 (loss)
Steelers +7 (win)
DJATC (4-2)
Texans +4.5 (win)
Jaguars -1 Confidence (loss)
Vikings -3 (win)
Steelers +7 (win)
Lions UNDER 47 (win)
Gordonm888 (6-0)
Bengals +11 (win)
Texans +4.5 Confidence (win)
Cardinals +2.5 (win)
Jets +7 (win)
Steelers +7 (win)
PlayYourCardsRight (2-4)
Browns +1.5 (loss)
Chiefs -4.5 (loss)
Vikings -3 (win)
49ers +3 (win)
Packers -4 Confidence (loss)
kuma (3-3)
Jaguars -1 Confidence (loss)
Vikings -3 (win)
Redskins OVER 41 (loss)
Steelers +7 (win)
Packers UNDER 47 (win)
Sparty10k (1-5)
Falcons -2.5 (loss)
Saints OVER 43.5 (loss)
Jets +7 (win)
Titans +2–Confidence (loss)
Packers -4 (loss)
JW17 (4-2)
Broncos -2 Confidence (win)
Cardinals +2.5 (win)
Chiefs -4.5 (loss)
Packers -4 (loss)
Dolphins +3.5 (win)
RisingDough (5-1)
Bengals +11 (win)
Browns +1.5 (loss)
Vikings -3 (win)
Steelers +7 (win)
Packers UNDER 47 Confidence (win)
prozema (1-5)
Browns +1.5 (loss)
Jaguars -1 Confidence (loss)
Redskins -3.5 (loss)
Redskins OVER 41 (loss)
Lions UNDER 47 (win)
Ayecarumba (3-2)
Chiefs -4.5 Confidence (loss)
Texans OVER 55 (push)
49ers +3 (win)
Saints +1 (win)
Jaguars UNDER 43.5 (win)
Rdw4potus (3-3)
Packers -4 (loss)
Rams -3 Confidence (loss)
Vikings -3 (win)
Saints +1 (win)
Seahawks -1.5 (win)
Bruce1 (3-2)
Titans OVER 40.5 (loss)
Steelers OVER 41.5 (loss)
Cowboys OVER 44.5 (win)
Eagles OVER 44 (win)
Falcons OVER 51.5 (win)
Romes (0-5)
forfeit (loss)
forfeit (loss)
forfeit (loss)
forfeit (loss)
forfeit (loss)
Week 6 Current Standings
Name | Wins | Losses | % |
---|---|---|---|
SOOPOO | 27 | 9 | 75.00% |
Gordonm888 | 25 | 10 | 71.43% |
EdCollins | 25 | 11 | 69.44% |
miplet | 19 | 9 | 67.86% |
Michael99000 | 23 | 11 | 67.65% |
FourFiveFace | 23 | 13 | 63.89% |
unJon | 23 | 13 | 63.89% |
Joeman | 22 | 14 | 61.11% |
scolist | 21 | 14 | 60.00% |
JohnnyQ | 20 | 14 | 58.82% |
DJATC | 17 | 12 | 58.62% |
Bruce1 | 15 | 11 | 57.69% |
GenWyzgy | 19 | 14 | 57.58% |
IndyJeffrey | 20 | 16 | 55.56% |
JW17 | 20 | 16 | 55.56% |
Paradigm | 20 | 16 | 55.56% |
Mission146 | 18 | 15 | 54.55% |
Kuma | 19 | 16 | 54.29% |
prozema | 19 | 16 | 54.29% |
RisingDough | 19 | 16 | 54.29% |
BeachBumBabs | 16 | 14 | 53.33% |
PlayYourCardsRight | 16 | 14 | 53.33% |
MidwestAP | 17 | 15 | 53.13% |
Wizard | 18 | 17 | 51.43% |
Sparty10k | 17 | 19 | 47.22% |
Mwalz9 | 16 | 18 | 47.06% |
Onenickelmiracle | 14 | 16 | 46.67% |
rdw4potus | 12 | 15 | 44.44% |
Ayecarumba | 15 | 19 | 44.12% |
GWAE | 15 | 21 | 41.67% |
JohnZimbo | 14 | 20 | 41.18% |
Odiousgambit | 13 | 19 | 40.63% |
Romes | 10 | 18 | 35.71% |
Totals | 607 | 491 | 55.28% |
Record of Skip Weeks
BeachBumBabs: Week #6
Bruce1: Week #1
DJATC: Week #3
miplet: Week #1
Onenickelmiracle: Week #1
PlayYourCardsRight: Week #5
rdw4potus: Week #5
Romes: Week #4, #5, #6
Player Ranking Summary thru Week 6
Player | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ayecarumba | 12 (3-3) |
22 (3-3) |
23 (3-3) |
27 (2-4) |
30 (1-4) |
29 (3-2) |
BeachBumBabs | 7 (4-2) |
27 (1-5) |
16 (5-1) |
22 (2-4) |
21 (4-2) |
21 |
Bruce1 | - |
13 (3-2) |
6 (4-1) |
13 (2-4) |
14 (3-2) |
12 (3-2) |
DJATC | 21 (2-4) |
6 (6-0) |
7 |
14 (2-4) |
16 (3-2) |
11 (4-2) |
EdCollins | 1 (5-1) |
2 (5-1) |
2 (4-2) |
2 (3-3) |
1 (5-1) |
3 (3-3) |
FourFiveFace | 21 (2-4) |
22 (4-2) |
10 (5-1) |
9 (4-2) |
9 (3-3) |
6 (5-1) |
GenWyzgy | 12 (3-3) |
14 (4-2) |
20 (2-3) |
20 (3-3) |
17 (4-2) |
13 (3-1) |
Gordonm888 | 12 (3-3) |
14 (4-2) |
7 (5-1) |
10 (2-4) |
5 (5-0) |
2 (6-0) |
GWAE | 28 (1-5) |
32 (2-4) |
33 (3-3) |
32 (3-3) |
31 (3-3) |
30 (3-3) |
IndyJeffrey | 21 (2-4) |
14 (5-1) |
10 (4-2) |
10 (3-3) |
9 (4-2) |
14 (2-4) |
Joeman | 12 (3-3) |
6 (5-1) |
16 (2-4) |
17 (3-3) |
9 (5-1) |
8 (4-2) |
JohnnyQ | 1 (5-1) |
14 (2-4) |
15 (2-2) |
7 (5-1) |
8 (3-3) |
10 (3-3) |
JohnZimbo | 21 (2-4) |
6 (6-0) |
28 (0-6) |
32 (1-5) |
31 (3-3) |
31 (2-2) |
JW17 | 7 (4-2) |
6 (4-2) |
16 (2-4) |
27 (1-5) |
21 (5-1) |
14 (4-2) |
Kuma | 12 (3-3) |
27 (2-4) |
23 (4-2) |
17 (4-2) |
17 (3-2) |
18 (3-3) |
Michael99000 | 21 (2-4) |
14 (5-1) |
14 (3-2) |
6 (5-1) |
5 (4-2) |
5 (4-1) |
MidwestAP | 7 (4-2) |
6 (4-2) |
4 (4-0) |
7 (2-4) |
14 (2-4) |
23 (1-3) |
miplet | - |
1 (6-0) |
1 (5-1) |
3 (1-4) |
3 (4-1) |
4 (3-3) |
Mission146 | 28 (1-5) |
22 (5-1) |
20 (3-2) |
16 (3-2) |
12 (4-1) |
17 (2-4) |
Mwalz9 | 1 (5-1) |
3 (4-2) |
10 (2-4) |
17 (2-4) |
20 (2-2) |
26 (1-5) |
Odiousgambit | 28 (1-5) |
31 (2-3) |
32 (3-2) |
31 (2-3) |
33 (2-3) |
32 (3-3) |
Onenickelmiracle | - |
33 (1-5) |
23 (5-1) |
22 (3-3) |
24 (3-3) |
27 (2-4) |
Paradigm | 21 (2-4) |
22 (4-2) |
28 (2-4) |
22 (4-2) |
24 (3-3) |
14 (5-1) |
PlayYourCardsRight | 12 (3-3) |
6 (5-1) |
10 (3-3) |
10 (3-3) |
13 |
21 (2-4) |
prozema | 7 (4-2) |
3 (5-1) |
5 (4-2) |
4 (3-3) |
7 (2-3) |
18 (1-5) |
rdw4potus | 12 (3-3) |
20 (3-2) |
31 (1-4) |
30 (2-3) |
29 |
28 (3-3) |
RisingDough | 12 (3-3) |
30 (1-5) |
28 (4-2) |
27 (3-3) |
26 (3-2) |
18 (5-1) |
Romes | 1 (5-1) |
6 (3-3) |
16 (2-4) |
14 |
28 (0-5) |
33 (0-5) |
scolist | 6 (4-1) |
20 (2-4) |
20 (3-3) |
20 (3-3) |
17 (4-2) |
9 (5-1) |
SOOPOO | 1 (5-1) |
3 (4-2) |
2 (5-1) |
1 (4-2) |
1 (4-2) |
1 (5-1) |
Sparty10k | 21 (2-4) |
27 (3-3) |
23 (4-2) |
22 (3-3) |
21 (4-2) |
25 (1-5) |
unJon | 12 (3-3) |
14 (4-2) |
7 (5-1) |
4 (4-2) |
4 (4-2) |
6 (3-3) |
Wizard | 7 (4-2) |
22 (2-4) |
23 (3-3) |
26 (2-3) |
27 (2-4) |
24 (5-1) |
It was the right play. By kneeling down on the 2 instead of scoring a TD, the Williams virtually guaranteed the Packers a win. If he scores there, Detroit gets the ball back with 1:00+ to drive down and score a winning TD. A long shot, sure, but much more likely than Crosby missing a 20 yd field goal.Quote: djatcThat lions/packers game was such a weird way to cover the under. I guess instead of running it in they played it extremely conservative.
That play affected both the line bet and the over/under. If Williams scores a TD there, the Over covers for sure, and barring a miracle TD drive by the Lions, the Packers cover as well.
ETA: Those two phantom Hands to the Face calls determined the outcome of this game, but my Packers -4 pick was a loser either way.
Quote: JoemanIt was the right play. By kneeling down on the 2 instead of scoring a TD, the Williams virtually guaranteed the Packers a win. If he scores there, Detroit gets the ball back with 1:00+ to drive down and score a winning TD. A long shot, sure, but much more likely than Crosby missing a 20 yd field goal.
That play affected both the line bet and the over/under. If Williams scores a TD there, the Over covers for sure, and barring a miracle TD drive by the Lions, the Packers cover as well.
ETA: Those two phantom Hands to the Face calls determined the outcome of this game, but my Packers -4 pick was a loser either way.
There were an awful lot of bad calls in that game. I thought on both of those calls it wasnt as clearcut as Booger made it seem. The first one he did ride up and at least glance the facemask towards the end of the block. The second one it looks like he at least touched his neck which is apparently included in 'the face'. I agree that they were both bad calls, but not even in the top ten for the NFL week.
I felt the 'rules expert' they used was both extremely annoying, wrong a few times, and just not fun to listen to.
Williams made the obvious correct play. It is only an extremely selfish player that scores. The Lions (poorly coached) should have carried him in. Standing there watching shows lack of smarts. If you wrap him up with 4 big guys and carry him forward the whistle does not blow as FORWARD progress has not been stopped. If I was Detroit coach Williams is carried into the end zone.
Quote: JohnzimboNice job Gordon going 6-0
Thx. I assume I won the $40 prize, but saw nothing posted about that.
I think that the Gambler's Fallacy is not necessarily wrong when it comes to Sports Betting - for example, I feel that after going 11-0 in the past two weeks that I really am more likely to have a losing week. Why? Maybe I get over-confident and put less work into trying to find opportunities with this week's posted lines. There is a human element involved.