2019 WoV Picks game (discussion thread)

I think I went 5-1, putting me alone in 1st place.

I think my picks are at least two standard deviations from expected.

Quote: gordonm888

Just wanting to brag:

I went 5-0 with 1 tie last week .

This week I have gone 5-0 with the Steelers picked in the evening game.

This week I picked Texans +4.5 (vs Chiefs) (confidence), Jets+7 (vs Cowboys) and Cardinals +2.5 and all of these under-dogs won out-right. Also picked the win-less Bengals+11 and they did cover.

Hoo-hah!!! Life is good.

well thank you and soopoo for making our picks free roll going well so far this season. And no thanks to me for absolutely sucking.

Week 6 Results

Mission146 (2-4)
Seahawks -1.5 (win)
Steelers +7 (win)
Chiefs -4.5 (loss)
Eagles +3 (loss)
Cowboys -7 Confidence (loss)

unJon (3-3)
Saints +1 Confidence (win)
Buccaneers +2.5 (loss)
Seahawks -1.5 (win)
Cowboys -7 (loss)
Redskins -3.5 (loss)

Joeman (4-2)
Seahawks -1.5 Confidence (win)
Cowboys -7 (loss)
Packers -4 (loss)
Steelers +7 (win)
49ers UNDER 50.5 (win)

SOOPOO (5-1)
Saints +1 Confidence (win)
Texans +4.5 (win)
Seahawks -1.5 (win)
Cowboys -7 (loss)
Bengals +11 (win)

GenWyzgy (3-1)
Eagles +3 (loss)
Chiefs OVER 55 Confidence (push)
Seahawks -1.5 (win)
Browns OVER 46 (win)
Falcons OVER 51.5 (win)

GWAE (3-3)
Seahawks -1.5 (win)
Saints +1 (win)
Falcons -2.5 (loss)
Cowboys -7 Confidence (loss)
Steelers +7 (win)

IndyJeffrey (2-4)
Bengals +11 (win)
Seahawks -1.5 (win)
Chiefs -4.5 Confidence (loss)
Eagles +3 (loss)
Packers -4 (loss)

Onenickelmiracle (2-4)
Saints (+1) (win)
Saints OVER 43.5 Confidence (loss)
49ers (+3) (win)
Falcons (-2.5) (loss)
Cowboys (-7) (loss)

mwalz9 (1-5)
CHIEFS - 4.5 Confidence (loss)
SEAHAWKS -1.5 (win)
REDSKINS -3.5 (loss)
TITANS +2 (loss)
CHARGERS -7 (loss)

JohnnyQ (3-3)
Buccaneers (+2.5) (loss)
Seahawks (-1.5) Confidence (win)
Broncos (-2) (win)
Chargers (-7) (loss)
Packers (-4) (loss)

Paradigm (5-1)
Lions +4 Confidence (win)
49ers +3 (win)
Texans +4.5 (win)
Browns +1.5 (loss)
Steelers +7 (win)

MidwestAP (1-3)
Buccaneers +2.5 (loss)
Seahawks -1.5 (win)
Texans UNDER 55 Confidence (push)
Falcons UNDER 51.5 (loss)
Packers -4 (loss)

Michael99000 (4-1)
Panthers OVER 47.5 (win)
Bengals UNDER 48 (win)
Seahawks UNDER 46 (loss)
Texans OVER 55 (push)
Saints UNDER 43.5 Confidence (win)

EdCollins (3-3)
Chargers -7 (loss)
Seahawks -1.5 Confidence (win)
Ravens -11 (loss)
49ers +3 (win)
Cowboys -7 (loss)

FourFiveFace (5-1)
Bengals +11 Confidence (win)
Jaguars -1 (loss)
Cardinals +2.5 (win)
Jets +7 (win)
Steelers +7 (win)

Odiousgambit (3-3)
Jaguars (-1) (loss)
49ers (+3) Confidence (win)
Panthers (-2.5) (win)
Chiefs (-4.5) (loss)
Chargers (-7) (loss)

JohnZimbo (2-2)
Jets +7 (win)
Jets OVER 44.5 (win)
Chargers -7 (loss)
Buccaneers +2.5 (loss)
Texans OVER 55 Confidence (push)

scolist (5-1)
Panthers -2.5 (win)
Seahawks -1.5 Confidence (win)
49ers +3 (win)
Saints +1 (win)
Packers -4 (loss)

Wizard (5-1)
Texans (+4.5) (win)
Vikings (-3) (win)
Rams (-3) (loss)
Steelers (+7) Confidence (win)
Jets (+7) (win)

miplet (3-3)
Texans +4.5 (win)
Jaguars -1 Confidence (loss)
Vikings -3 (win)
Titans +2 (loss)
Steelers +7 (win)

DJATC (4-2)
Texans +4.5 (win)
Jaguars -1 Confidence (loss)
Vikings -3 (win)
Steelers +7 (win)
Lions UNDER 47 (win)

Gordonm888 (6-0)
Bengals +11 (win)
Texans +4.5 Confidence (win)
Cardinals +2.5 (win)
Jets +7 (win)
Steelers +7 (win)

PlayYourCardsRight (2-4)
Browns +1.5 (loss)
Chiefs -4.5 (loss)
Vikings -3 (win)
49ers +3 (win)
Packers -4 Confidence (loss)

kuma (3-3)
Jaguars -1 Confidence (loss)
Vikings -3 (win)
Redskins OVER 41 (loss)
Steelers +7 (win)
Packers UNDER 47 (win)

Sparty10k (1-5)
Falcons -2.5 (loss)
Saints OVER 43.5 (loss)
Jets +7 (win)
Titans +2–Confidence (loss)
Packers -4 (loss)

JW17 (4-2)
Broncos -2 Confidence (win)
Cardinals +2.5 (win)
Chiefs -4.5 (loss)
Packers -4 (loss)
Dolphins +3.5 (win)

RisingDough (5-1)
Bengals +11 (win)
Browns +1.5 (loss)
Vikings -3 (win)
Steelers +7 (win)
Packers UNDER 47 Confidence (win)

prozema (1-5)
Browns +1.5 (loss)
Jaguars -1 Confidence (loss)
Redskins -3.5 (loss)
Redskins OVER 41 (loss)
Lions UNDER 47 (win)

Ayecarumba (3-2)
Chiefs -4.5 Confidence (loss)
Texans OVER 55 (push)
49ers +3 (win)
Saints +1 (win)
Jaguars UNDER 43.5 (win)

Rdw4potus (3-3)
Packers -4 (loss)
Rams -3 Confidence (loss)
Vikings -3 (win)
Saints +1 (win)
Seahawks -1.5 (win)

Bruce1 (3-2)
Titans OVER 40.5 (loss)
Steelers OVER 41.5 (loss)
Cowboys OVER 44.5 (win)
Eagles OVER 44 (win)
Falcons OVER 51.5 (win)

Romes (0-5)
forfeit (loss)
forfeit (loss)
forfeit (loss)
forfeit (loss)
forfeit (loss)



Week 6 Current Standings

Name	Wins	Losses	%
SOOPOO	27	9	75.00%
Gordonm888	25	10	71.43%
EdCollins	25	11	69.44%
miplet	19	9	67.86%
Michael99000	23	11	67.65%
FourFiveFace	23	13	63.89%
unJon	23	13	63.89%
Joeman	22	14	61.11%
scolist	21	14	60.00%
JohnnyQ	20	14	58.82%
DJATC	17	12	58.62%
Bruce1	15	11	57.69%
GenWyzgy	19	14	57.58%
IndyJeffrey	20	16	55.56%
JW17	20	16	55.56%
Paradigm	20	16	55.56%
Mission146	18	15	54.55%
Kuma	19	16	54.29%
prozema	19	16	54.29%
RisingDough	19	16	54.29%
BeachBumBabs	16	14	53.33%
PlayYourCardsRight	16	14	53.33%
MidwestAP	17	15	53.13%
Wizard	18	17	51.43%
Sparty10k	17	19	47.22%
Mwalz9	16	18	47.06%
Onenickelmiracle	14	16	46.67%
rdw4potus	12	15	44.44%
Ayecarumba	15	19	44.12%
GWAE	15	21	41.67%
JohnZimbo	14	20	41.18%
Odiousgambit	13	19	40.63%
Romes	10	18	35.71%
Totals	607	491	55.28%

Record of Skip Weeks

BeachBumBabs: Week #6
Bruce1: Week #1
DJATC: Week #3
miplet: Week #1
Onenickelmiracle: Week #1
PlayYourCardsRight: Week #5
rdw4potus: Week #5
Romes: Week #4, #5, #6



Player Ranking Summary thru Week 6

Player	Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Week 4	Week 5	Week 6
Ayecarumba	12 (3-3)	22 (3-3)	23 (3-3)	27 (2-4)	30 (1-4)	29 (3-2)
BeachBumBabs	7 (4-2)	27 (1-5)	16 (5-1)	22 (2-4)	21 (4-2)	21
Bruce1	-	13 (3-2)	6 (4-1)	13 (2-4)	14 (3-2)	12 (3-2)
DJATC	21 (2-4)	6 (6-0)	7	14 (2-4)	16 (3-2)	11 (4-2)
EdCollins	1 (5-1)	2 (5-1)	2 (4-2)	2 (3-3)	1 (5-1)	3 (3-3)
FourFiveFace	21 (2-4)	22 (4-2)	10 (5-1)	9 (4-2)	9 (3-3)	6 (5-1)
GenWyzgy	12 (3-3)	14 (4-2)	20 (2-3)	20 (3-3)	17 (4-2)	13 (3-1)
Gordonm888	12 (3-3)	14 (4-2)	7 (5-1)	10 (2-4)	5 (5-0)	2 (6-0)
GWAE	28 (1-5)	32 (2-4)	33 (3-3)	32 (3-3)	31 (3-3)	30 (3-3)
IndyJeffrey	21 (2-4)	14 (5-1)	10 (4-2)	10 (3-3)	9 (4-2)	14 (2-4)
Joeman	12 (3-3)	6 (5-1)	16 (2-4)	17 (3-3)	9 (5-1)	8 (4-2)
JohnnyQ	1 (5-1)	14 (2-4)	15 (2-2)	7 (5-1)	8 (3-3)	10 (3-3)
JohnZimbo	21 (2-4)	6 (6-0)	28 (0-6)	32 (1-5)	31 (3-3)	31 (2-2)
JW17	7 (4-2)	6 (4-2)	16 (2-4)	27 (1-5)	21 (5-1)	14 (4-2)
Kuma	12 (3-3)	27 (2-4)	23 (4-2)	17 (4-2)	17 (3-2)	18 (3-3)
Michael99000	21 (2-4)	14 (5-1)	14 (3-2)	6 (5-1)	5 (4-2)	5 (4-1)
MidwestAP	7 (4-2)	6 (4-2)	4 (4-0)	7 (2-4)	14 (2-4)	23 (1-3)
miplet	-	1 (6-0)	1 (5-1)	3 (1-4)	3 (4-1)	4 (3-3)
Mission146	28 (1-5)	22 (5-1)	20 (3-2)	16 (3-2)	12 (4-1)	17 (2-4)
Mwalz9	1 (5-1)	3 (4-2)	10 (2-4)	17 (2-4)	20 (2-2)	26 (1-5)
Odiousgambit	28 (1-5)	31 (2-3)	32 (3-2)	31 (2-3)	33 (2-3)	32 (3-3)
Onenickelmiracle	-	33 (1-5)	23 (5-1)	22 (3-3)	24 (3-3)	27 (2-4)
Paradigm	21 (2-4)	22 (4-2)	28 (2-4)	22 (4-2)	24 (3-3)	14 (5-1)
PlayYourCardsRight	12 (3-3)	6 (5-1)	10 (3-3)	10 (3-3)	13	21 (2-4)
prozema	7 (4-2)	3 (5-1)	5 (4-2)	4 (3-3)	7 (2-3)	18 (1-5)
rdw4potus	12 (3-3)	20 (3-2)	31 (1-4)	30 (2-3)	29	28 (3-3)
RisingDough	12 (3-3)	30 (1-5)	28 (4-2)	27 (3-3)	26 (3-2)	18 (5-1)
Romes	1 (5-1)	6 (3-3)	16 (2-4)	14	28 (0-5)	33 (0-5)
scolist	6 (4-1)	20 (2-4)	20 (3-3)	20 (3-3)	17 (4-2)	9 (5-1)
SOOPOO	1 (5-1)	3 (4-2)	2 (5-1)	1 (4-2)	1 (4-2)	1 (5-1)
Sparty10k	21 (2-4)	27 (3-3)	23 (4-2)	22 (3-3)	21 (4-2)	25 (1-5)
unJon	12 (3-3)	14 (4-2)	7 (5-1)	4 (4-2)	4 (4-2)	6 (3-3)
Wizard	7 (4-2)	22 (2-4)	23 (3-3)	26 (2-3)	27 (2-4)	24 (5-1)

That lions/packers game was such a weird way to cover the under. I guess instead of running it in they played it extremely conservative.

I have 4 straight weeks of 3-3. I think that's impressive

Quote: djatc

That lions/packers game was such a weird way to cover the under. I guess instead of running it in they played it extremely conservative.

It was the right play. By kneeling down on the 2 instead of scoring a TD, the Williams virtually guaranteed the Packers a win. If he scores there, Detroit gets the ball back with 1:00+ to drive down and score a winning TD. A long shot, sure, but much more likely than Crosby missing a 20 yd field goal.

That play affected both the line bet and the over/under. If Williams scores a TD there, the Over covers for sure, and barring a miracle TD drive by the Lions, the Packers cover as well.

ETA: Those two phantom Hands to the Face calls determined the outcome of this game, but my Packers -4 pick was a loser either way.

Quote: Joeman

It was the right play. By kneeling down on the 2 instead of scoring a TD, the Williams virtually guaranteed the Packers a win. If he scores there, Detroit gets the ball back with 1:00+ to drive down and score a winning TD. A long shot, sure, but much more likely than Crosby missing a 20 yd field goal.

That play affected both the line bet and the over/under. If Williams scores a TD there, the Over covers for sure, and barring a miracle TD drive by the Lions, the Packers cover as well.

ETA: Those two phantom Hands to the Face calls determined the outcome of this game, but my Packers -4 pick was a loser either way.

There were an awful lot of bad calls in that game. I thought on both of those calls it wasnt as clearcut as Booger made it seem. The first one he did ride up and at least glance the facemask towards the end of the block. The second one it looks like he at least touched his neck which is apparently included in 'the face'. I agree that they were both bad calls, but not even in the top ten for the NFL week.

I felt the 'rules expert' they used was both extremely annoying, wrong a few times, and just not fun to listen to.

Williams made the obvious correct play. It is only an extremely selfish player that scores. The Lions (poorly coached) should have carried him in. Standing there watching shows lack of smarts. If you wrap him up with 4 big guys and carry him forward the whistle does not blow as FORWARD progress has not been stopped. If I was Detroit coach Williams is carried into the end zone.

By the way, congrats Wiz, oh most MEDIOCRE!

Nice job Gordon going 6-0

Quote: Johnzimbo

Nice job Gordon going 6-0

Thx. I assume I won the $40 prize, but saw nothing posted about that.

I think that the Gambler's Fallacy is not necessarily wrong when it comes to Sports Betting - for example, I feel that after going 11-0 in the past two weeks that I really am more likely to have a losing week. Why? Maybe I get over-confident and put less work into trying to find opportunities with this week's posted lines. There is a human element involved.