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GWAE
GWAE
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RisingDough
July 31st, 2019 at 12:25:42 PM permalink
Quote: SM777

Sounds incredibly profitable long term. Best of luck.



Who ever said it was? In fact I said I have no idea what I am doing. Playing craps is also not profitable but many of us do that. I went to the movies on Friday which is also not profitable.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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August 8th, 2019 at 12:59:51 PM permalink
Lets jump back into this thread with a topical question.

Does anybody have an opinion on how to best make money off baseball lets call them "kings" and "scrubs" at this time of year? For lack of a better word, "kings" would be the top team in each division, maybe call it the top 5, all in the playoff hunt. "Scrubs" are teams at the bottom, like Miami and Pittsburgh, no chance of going anywhere.

I ask now because we are past the trade deadline and at the point in the season where the scrubs have next to no reason to care, in the old days we might say their motivation is to lose fast so they can get home in time for "The Tonight Show." Invent a reason for today. We also are past the trade deadline. many shed their best players last week.

Consider the Pirates have lost 21 of their last 25 and both NY teams are burning the grass on the infield they are so hot.

I lost twice this week hoping the Pirates would show life. Now looking for any favorite systems of investing part of a win to increase the next win vs flat betting where you will lose long term on the juice. Flip it for the "kings." Occasional loss takes games to make up.

Thoughts?
Tolerance is the virtue of believing in nothing
michael99000
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
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August 8th, 2019 at 1:04:05 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Lets jump back into this thread with a topical question.

Does anybody have an opinion on how to best make money off baseball lets call them "kings" and "scrubs" at this time of year? For lack of a better word, "kings" would be the top team in each division, maybe call it the top 5, all in the playoff hunt. "Scrubs" are teams at the bottom, like Miami and Pittsburgh, no chance of going anywhere.

I ask now because we are past the trade deadline and at the point in the season where the scrubs have next to no reason to care, in the old days we might say their motivation is to lose fast so they can get home in time for "The Tonight Show." Invent a reason for today. We also are past the trade deadline. many shed their best players last week.

Consider the Pirates have lost 21 of their last 25 and both NY teams are burning the grass on the infield they are so hot.

I lost twice this week hoping the Pirates would show life. Now looking for any favorite systems of investing part of a win to increase the next win vs flat betting where you will lose long term on the juice. Flip it for the "kings." Occasional loss takes games to make up.

Thoughts?



Everything you are saying is factored into the lines on these games. The oddsmakers are well aware that there’s good teams and bad teams and some have more to play for than others.
The problem is, many of these horrible teams remain more motivated than you’d think. Look back at any MLB September day to day scoreboard and you’ll see tons of games where a scrub playing out the string beat a team that badly needed the win for playoff reasons. You’ll even see series sweeps by the bad team. Motivation is way overrated when it comes to handicapping sports , once these guys step between the lines they are all trying to win. And baseball is one sport where “trying harder” than usual to win is probably more of a hindrance than a help.
michael99000
michael99000
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August 16th, 2019 at 10:41:45 AM permalink
Bet I plan on placing before the season starts:

Pat Mahomes OVER 36.5 Td passes.

I certainly understand a year 2 regression is likely, but after throwing 50 as a rookie, I think he still gets over 36

If he stays healthy is a big factor of course for any football player prop.
DRich
DRich
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August 16th, 2019 at 1:39:35 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

Bet I plan on placing before the season starts:

Pat Mahomes OVER 36.5 Td passes.

I certainly understand a year 2 regression is likely, but after throwing 50 as a rookie, I think he still gets over 36

If he stays healthy is a big factor of course for any football player prop.



I think you need to factor in how many games does the average starting quarterback play each year? I would guess it s probably around 12.5.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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August 30th, 2019 at 2:24:16 PM permalink
Request for information.


OTHER THAN MLB.COM and baseballreference, is there a site where I can easily make a printout of final MLB standings by year that will easily fit on one page?

I do not care about putting it on a spreadsheet. MLB.COM has some formatting issues I do not like for what I am doing. I need to be able to hold a sheet in my hand and make some notes. I need 5-10 years back.

Ideas?
Tolerance is the virtue of believing in nothing
SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
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August 30th, 2019 at 4:23:11 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Request for information.


OTHER THAN MLB.COM and baseballreference, is there a site where I can easily make a printout of final MLB standings by year that will easily fit on one page?

I do not care about putting it on a spreadsheet. MLB.COM has some formatting issues I do not like for what I am doing. I need to be able to hold a sheet in my hand and make some notes. I need 5-10 years back.

Ideas?



ESPN.com on their MLB standings has a drop down that you can select previous years that definitely goes back to 2009. Not sure if you'll like the format, but it's an option.
SM777
SM777
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RisingDough
RisingDough
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Thanks for this post from:
AZDuffman
September 3rd, 2019 at 2:29:57 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Lets jump back into this thread with a topical question.

Does anybody have an opinion on how to best make money off baseball lets call them "kings" and "scrubs" at this time of year? For lack of a better word, "kings" would be the top team in each division, maybe call it the top 5, all in the playoff hunt. "Scrubs" are teams at the bottom, like Miami and Pittsburgh, no chance of going anywhere.

I ask now because we are past the trade deadline and at the point in the season where the scrubs have next to no reason to care, in the old days we might say their motivation is to lose fast so they can get home in time for "The Tonight Show." Invent a reason for today. We also are past the trade deadline. many shed their best players last week.

Consider the Pirates have lost 21 of their last 25 and both NY teams are burning the grass on the infield they are so hot.

I lost twice this week hoping the Pirates would show life. Now looking for any favorite systems of investing part of a win to increase the next win vs flat betting where you will lose long term on the juice. Flip it for the "kings." Occasional loss takes games to make up.

Thoughts?




All we are doing in sports betting is looking for long term value. It is very similar to poker. If I call off my stack with a flush draw after the turn and I'm getting 5-1 pot odds I will show a long term profit.....math is math. I will lose 4 out of 5 times but the one time I win will make up for the losses plus some. So it's a +EV play in the long run. We are looking to do the same in sports betting.

One way to seek value late in the season is to look at these ridiculous favorites. We recently seen the almighty Houston Astros lose to the Orioles as -480 favorites and then Tigers as -525 favorites! You will often hear people say this is a "MUST WIN" game for a team. Well just because it's very important they win doesn't mean their chances of winning go up as drastically as people think. There lies value.

Another example would be recently the Cubs went on the road to face the Mets. The Cubs have been horrific on the road this season (around 14 games under .500) and now had to face Stroman, Syndergaard and deGrom! Stroman opened -120, Syndergaard opened -130 and deGrom opened -185 (closed -215) no way Cubs could sweep so action came piling in on deGrom. Well guess what the Cubs pulled off a 3 game sweep in New York as an underdog in all 3 games!

Now the Cubs come back to the friendly confines of Wrigley Field where they have been GREAT (around 20 games OVER .500) and facing the Milwaukee Brewers who had lost 9 of last 15 games and sliding out of contention! Seems like an easy spot to take the red hot Cubs after sweeping the Mets! Brewers win 2 out of 3 and shut out the Cubs in back to back games! The real value here lied in games 2 and 3. The Cubs win game one of the series 7-1 confirming in the minds of all the bettors that the Cubs are HOT and gonna continue their dominance. What do we see in the 2nd game? The Cubs open as a -140 favorite and the money comes piling in and by game time the Cubs are -180! Brewers win 2-0. Sunday comes along and the Cubs bettors are gonna get their money back! Things got muddied up because there was a pitching change. If Darvish would have started you would have seen an insane betting line but Chatwood started instead and the line opened with Chatwood -150 and the pros gobbled up the Brewers and it closed at Cubs -135 and the Brewers win 4-0.

So anyways these were just a couple examples of seeking value. Hopefully it wasn't too long winded and made sense. Feel free to hit me with questions.

Some examples of value (in my opinion) going tonight.....

Rangers +300
***The Yankees were shut out yesterday for the first time in some 220 games in a 7-0 loss to the Rangers. So what does the average Joe think? OMG REVENGE...no way the Yanks lose 2 in a row to the Rangers! They are gonna be pissed they got shut out and will probably score 15+ today! Well maybe that WILL happen but maybe not. If Yanks win in a blow out...who cares...we just want to get our money in good from a long term perspective and deal with variance. Maybe there was a reason the Yanks got shut out yesterday.....maybe it's the beginning of a slump? Maybe they are playing a lil softer to avoid injury with a big division lead, maybe they are more focused on individual stats than taking good at bats for the team...who knows...all I know is +300 is sweet on a team that has won 3 of it's last 4 games.

Nationals first 5 innings -120
***Call this one more of a handicapping play but I've watched the Nationals playing recently and they are really taking great at bats and imo are a much better team than the Mets. The Mets have been the talk of late for their great run since the all start break but they have played a bunch of bad teams and this run is overrated. deGrom obviously is an elite pitcher but so is Scherzer and I like the Nats offense much better here. I want to avoid the Nats shitty bullpen so I'm taking first half.

White Sox +280
***Obviously the Indians are a much better team than the rebuilding White Sox but the White Sox have some very dynamic young players. I love looking for spots like this with young teams. They can beat anyone and are too young and confident to be intimidated by anyone. Again the narrative here would be the Indians are fighting for a Wild Card spot just 1 game behind the Rays for home field for that WC game but only 2 games ahead of the A's so this is an important game for them. They have Clevinger on the mound who was the AL pitcher of the month for August! Seems like slam dunk win for the tribe....hence long term value on the pale hose!

Giants +250
***Cardinals have been winning everyday and people are jumping on the gravy train! value on giants



Sorry for long post...started off as a discussion then I didn't want to sound like someone that just points out stuff from the past so figured I'd show my thinking on some stuff for tonight....like I said though I seek long term value...so tonight can easily go 0-3 or 3-0 and it won't matter either way. It's all about getting your money in good and deal with the variance and get paid long term. Sorry if any of this was confusing as I'm not much of a writer. Good luck all!


RD
What is life if not a gamble?
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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September 9th, 2019 at 5:34:11 PM permalink
Simple question for discussion.

Patriots -17.5 @ Miami.

Is Miami bad enough to lay all those points?
Tolerance is the virtue of believing in nothing

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