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DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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October 11th, 2019 at 7:32:13 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

I got Steelers +500 email. Herd the fair moneyline is half that from a former bookie I know. Steelers have kept most games close. Tempted to bet what I would win on taking the spread.



I would bet the max on Steelers +500. I don't think they will win but at +500 it is a no brainer.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
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October 11th, 2019 at 7:53:30 PM permalink
Yeah. Bet as much as they'll take/you are comfortable with.
unJon
unJon 
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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October 11th, 2019 at 8:51:41 PM permalink
Wow. +500 is an insane line. Must be a low cap on what you can wager.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
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October 11th, 2019 at 10:16:01 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

I got Steelers +500 email. Herd the fair moneyline is half that from a former bookie I know. Steelers have kept most games close. Tempted to bet what I would win on taking the spread.



Just looked. I have it too. Max $25 to win 125
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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October 12th, 2019 at 5:50:54 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Just looked. I have it too. Max $25 to win 125



I wandered in and looked. For those of you in PA and wanting to bet, it appears it will show as +235 and change once you keep it locked in until kickoff. It is it's own tab on the side so you cannot miss it. I did not follow a link so it appears anyone can take it.

The Bengals at +410 are the next best moneyline odds. IMHO they are putting this out because they just got feedback on a survey and this is the kind of sweetner people said they liked best. Rivers has not been shy about trying this kind of promotion.

After sleeping on it I think it is too good a chance not to Lock it In, Rachel.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
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October 13th, 2019 at 6:05:01 AM permalink
Here are the bets that we were talking about. Just curious, is there a way to figure an edge on this? I assume the "boost" makes it a players edge without any type of analysis but maybe I am way wrong? I only did this under my account but could also get another $50 down on wife account too. I could throw down $50 as well on the vikings and give me a guaranteed profit of $2.28 or $27.28 and $80 on the chargers for a guaranteed win of $6 or $45. Do I take the guarantees or roll with the original wagers that I made. For the people who do this type of thing seriously what would you/they do? Take the guarantee even though its only $8 but a chance for a $72 win?

Total wager:
$25.00
Odds:
+235 +500
Potential payout:
Odds Boost $150.00
Pittsburgh Steelers to win vs Los Angeles Chargers (NFL) 10/13: Yes (Winner)

Total wager:
$25.00
Odds:
+148 +300
Potential payout:
Odds Boost $100.00
Philadelphia Eagles to win vs Minnesota Vikings (NFL) 10/13: Yes (Winner)
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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October 13th, 2019 at 6:20:46 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Here are the bets that we were talking about. Just curious, is there a way to figure an edge on this? I assume the "boost" makes it a players edge without any type of analysis but maybe I am way wrong? I only did this under my account but could also get another $50 down on wife account too. I could throw down $50 as well on the vikings and give me a guaranteed profit of $2.28 or $27.28 and $80 on the chargers for a guaranteed win of $6 or $45. Do I take the guarantees or roll with the original wagers that I made. For the people who do this type of thing seriously what would you/they do? Take the guarantee even though its only $8 but a chance for a $72 win?

Total wager:
$25.00
Odds:
+235 +500
Potential payout:
Odds Boost $150.00
Pittsburgh Steelers to win vs Los Angeles Chargers (NFL) 10/13: Yes (Winner)

Total wager:
$25.00
Odds:
+148 +300
Potential payout:
Odds Boost $100.00
Philadelphia Eagles to win vs Minnesota Vikings (NFL) 10/13: Yes (Winner)



As these are clearly not 'life changing' money amounts, whatever bet you use to hedge the +EV bets the casino is giving you will be -EV. So by hedging your bets you will be decreasing the value of the casino offer.

I have a better idea..... use the Pittsburgh bet for yourself and the Eagles bet for the WoV get together bets you've been making!
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
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October 13th, 2019 at 6:30:11 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

As these are clearly not 'life changing' money amounts, whatever bet you use to hedge the +EV bets the casino is giving you will be -EV. So by hedging your bets you will be decreasing the value of the casino offer.

I have a better idea..... use the Pittsburgh bet for yourself and the Eagles bet for the WoV get together bets you've been making!



yes you are right they are not life changing. I know the commandments are to no hedge but is it different when you are hedging a +ev event? In this case I might be hedging a +100 HE to +20 for a guarantee so even though I am using a negative bet to hedge the total is still going to be +ev but with a guarantee. Is that against the commandments?

I can't use these with that bets game because these are ML wagers and we do spread bets.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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October 13th, 2019 at 7:27:15 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

yes you are right they are not life changing. I know the commandments are to no hedge but is it different when you are hedging a +ev event? In this case I might be hedging a +100 HE to +20 for a guarantee so even though I am using a negative bet to hedge the total is still going to be +ev but with a guarantee. Is that against the commandments?



It is 100% against the Wiz's commandments.

You already have a defined amount of +EV from the offer.

Any hedge is it's own bet, with it's own EV. Both your hedging options are by definition -EV.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 221
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October 13th, 2019 at 8:26:19 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Here are the bets that we were talking about. Just curious, is there a way to figure an edge on this? I assume the "boost" makes it a players edge without any type of analysis but maybe I am way wrong? I only did this under my account but could also get another $50 down on wife account too. I could throw down $50 as well on the vikings and give me a guaranteed profit of $2.28 or $27.28 and $80 on the chargers for a guaranteed win of $6 or $45. Do I take the guarantees or roll with the original wagers that I made. For the people who do this type of thing seriously what would you/they do? Take the guarantee even though its only $8 but a chance for a $72 win?

Total wager:
$25.00
Odds:
+235 +500
Potential payout:
Odds Boost $150.00
Pittsburgh Steelers to win vs Los Angeles Chargers (NFL) 10/13: Yes (Winner)



I ran this yesterday. The best thing was take the $25 max on the Steelers online. Then get in your car and lay $72 (rounded) against them across the sports book counter. Steelers win you get $50. They lose it is a push to you. Bump the $72 up and you win either way, best bet making a max of $125 as that is what you get if the Steelers win.

If I lived in the apartments near PNC park it would be worth it to walk to the book on a nice day like this. It is not worth the time or gas to max it out at this point in my life.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others

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