ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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June 16th, 2019 at 7:25:12 PM permalink
Had a nice*** bet on the Lakers to win the finals next season.

***: 1000 @ $7.00 with pointsbet^^^ and laid it on betfair 1100 (1045 after commission) @ ~5.3

^^^: the odds with pointsbet are still pretty good @ $5.00 atm.

link: https://pointsbet.com.au/basketball/NBA-Futures/151900

I can either win ~1300 if the Lakers win, or win 45 if they lose the finals.

Now I just have to wait 350 days and hope for the best.

------
Update:

Normally futures have a terrible house edge (generally 20% +)
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
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Thanks for this post from:
Boz
June 17th, 2019 at 3:00:38 PM permalink
I'm not that knowledgable on hoops, but I don't see where the value comes from. Lakers added one player, and I think an overrated one.

Davis is not Leonard, or Giannis. I think in basketball, if you really are that good, your team will win at some point. His Pelicans have stunk every year.

I think he is probably a guy who can stuff the stat sheet on a bad team, like Love or Carmello.

Even if he is better than I think, he isn't a 40 win player. The Lakers were a lottery team. They added one guy. And gave up a bunch to get him.

I don't see how he fits with LBJ either. LBJ works best with great 3 and D guys. You have to choose between focusing on LBJ and leaving open 3s, or letting LBJ score at will. but Davis is an interior player.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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June 17th, 2019 at 3:16:54 PM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

I'm not that knowledgable on hoops, but I don't see where the value comes from. Lakers added one player, and I think an overrated one.

Davis is not Leonard, or Giannis. I think in basketball, if you really are that good, your team will win at some point. His Pelicans have stunk every year.

I think he is probably a guy who can stuff the stat sheet on a bad team, like Love or Carmello.

Even if he is better than I think, he isn't a 40 win player. The Lakers were a lottery team. They added one guy. And gave up a bunch to get him.

I don't see how he fits with LBJ either. LBJ works best with great 3 and D guys. You have to choose between focusing on LBJ and leaving open 3s, or letting LBJ score at will. but Davis is an interior player.



They are definitely going to need to add a 3 point shooter. I wouldn;t be surprised to see them add an older player like a Kyle Korver or JJ Reddick. People forget what a great passer Lebron is. That is what is going to make A.D. so good with this team.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
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Thanks for this post from:
Boz
June 17th, 2019 at 4:32:47 PM permalink
Baldini’s in Reno you can bet on lakers to not win nba finals, would be nice to see other books follow suit and do two way bets on futures other than win total.
Boz
Boz
Joined: Sep 22, 2011
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June 17th, 2019 at 5:32:46 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Baldini’s in Reno you can bet on lakers to not win nba finals, would be nice to see other books follow suit and do two way bets on futures other than win total.



Could be a Great value bet, what are the current odds?
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
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June 17th, 2019 at 8:17:19 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

They are definitely going to need to add a 3 point shooter. I wouldn;t be surprised to see them add an older player like a Kyle Korver or JJ Reddick. People forget what a great passer Lebron is. That is what is going to make A.D. so good with this team.



Korver is not a free agent, although his deal is only partially guaranteed next year and Utah could get an extra 4 million in cap space if they release him (7.5m next year, 3.44 guaranteed.) Danny Green or Trevor Ariza would probably be a good fit.
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
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June 17th, 2019 at 8:24:48 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

Could be a Great value bet, what are the current odds?



No idea, saw it mentioned last night on VISN and Twitter. As of that time it was -450 on the no, I believe 1k max.
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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June 19th, 2019 at 11:18:02 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Baldini’s in Reno you can bet on lakers to not win nba finals, would be nice to see other books follow suit and do two way bets on futures other than win total.



There will be plenty of other options. It's still the middle of June. Can't find many Super Bowl props the second weekend in February

Warriors could still be the favorites. Losing Durant and Thompson for a full season can't be nearly as bad as the Bulls losing Otto Porter and Wendell Carter for a couple months.

Great move by the Lakers. Pretty much the #4 pick and Ingram for someone who could be one of the five best players in the league. Should have held out for Kouzma.
Hard to believe Boston wasn't in position to offer more with seven first round picks in the next three years, along with Tatum, Brown, Rozier, etc.

Davis has already been first team All-NBA multiple times. Carmelo and Love combined zero times. A much better worst case scenario comparisons would be Derrick Rose or Chris Paul. Knicks were famously great to bet on as huge underdogs when Anthony was out because of how overrated he was. Pelicans not so much when Davis was out.

Winning a title usually requires an MVP level player, plus another top level star -- and blowing up a roster to do it has been the typical path. Celtics did it to get Garnett and Allen. Heat had like three players remaining in 2010 that they had in 09. Lakers gave up almost as much to get Gasol. Cavs had LeBron and Kyrie, then traded the number one overall pick for Love. Warriors didn't have to because they MVP players and up to four players worth max contracts.

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