WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
  • Threads: 95
  • Posts: 1496
Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
June 10th, 2019 at 1:05:39 PM permalink
I dont see the warriors losing tonight. They need to bring it all... or they are done. I took them as one of my plays on my parlay for the day. I moved the line to warriors -1.5 (plus 115).
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 65
  • Posts: 386
June 10th, 2019 at 1:48:35 PM permalink
Line update:

The +1.5 @ CIRCA for Raptors is gone now, the average line at most sports books is about "coin-flip odds" (offshore and Vegas), though some are still +1 for either team.

Other info:

I haven't put up my new spread estimate, because the website I use as a guide has not put up "what K D is worth***" yet, any opinions would be much appreciated.

***: I have a rough estimate, but the website I use is about 50% of the "complete estimate" i use, for player status changes.


Had $1000^^^ @ +3 on the Warriors @ $2, and will wait and see if the books I use get above +1.5 before I decide to bet on the Raptors.

^^^: I was going to reduce it to $100 "for fun" bet by game time, if K D was not playing.

------
Update (205 pm Pac time)
Will be away from Pc for a up to an hour, so I won't be able to update the current spread^*^, and predictions (if any).

^*^: but you can find that out from Vegas Insider and other websites.

------
Update (~325 pm Pac time)

Average (mode) line is -1 for Warriors @ Off shore and Vegas books, but you can still get +1 @ PEPPERMILL (according to vegas insider)


My new estimated spread for this game is now Raptors as 0.25*^* favorites

*^*: I arrived at this by using the following numbers below.
My opinion (if K D was brought back in after being out for one game only and 100% fit): 6 points
My adjusted opinion: 4.8 to 5.4 points (5.1 average)
Website's opinion: 2 points
Combined opinion: (5.1 x 0.5) + (2 x 0.5) = 3.55 (K D adjustment)

Old spread estimate: Raptors @ -3.8
K D adjustment: 3.55
Current estimate: Raptors @ -0.25


Lastly, I plan to have 880 to 1100 on Raptors if I can get +1.5 or higher.

------------
Update (~355 pm Pac Time)

+1 @ PEPPERMILL is gone, the best line for the Warriors is now "coin-flip" @ WILLIAM HILL.

-----------
Update (~415 pm Pac Time)

None of the Vegas books are offering "pick em" odds anymore, Raptors are +1.5 @ STATIONS.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 10, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 65
  • Posts: 386
June 10th, 2019 at 4:22:05 PM permalink
Offer:

I am looking to back the Raptors +1.5 @ a price of $2.00 for up to 1000*** AUD (or up to 700 USD)

***: I would prefer to bet AUD, but since this is a US site, I am also offering the USD "equivalent".


"First come, first served" and " the minimum bet I will accept (per person) is $50 AUD/$35 USD"

Contact me by PM if interested.

This post/offer is subject to change, but the agreement made by PM^^^ is final.

^^^: a summary of the bet/agreement made in the PM will be posted on this thread as well as your username (unless you specifically ask me not to post your username).

——-
New offer( ~515 pm pac time):

I would like to back raptors for 800 Aud (or 560 usd) @ money line of +115 .


——

Also the raptors are not available at +1.5 with any Vegas sports book now; so that is why the original offer was “canceled “.

Sent by phone

———
Update (~540 pm pac time)

Raptors @ +1.5 are now available at 5 (or more) Vegas books

Sent by phone

----
Update (~550pm pax time)

All offers cancelled as it is about 10 minutes to advertised game time .

—-
Update (near game time/last update til after game)

At least one Vegas book has raptors @ +2

By phone
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 10, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 65
  • Posts: 386
June 10th, 2019 at 6:55:21 PM permalink
Bad news, K d is out a bit over 2 minutes into second quarter.

After this I took partial “cash out” and can now win ~420 or lose 0 on the warriors @ +3

Sent by phone
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 65
  • Posts: 386
June 11th, 2019 at 12:20:56 AM permalink
Game (06/13):

Line Estimate: I think the Raptors should be 1 to 3 point dogs (average +2)

I managed to back the Raptors +4.5 and had 1440 @ -120 (missed the -110, because I was at the movies).

If you are a Raptors punter, you should bet the +4 available now (at 3 books according to vegas insider) and
if you are a Warriors punter, you should wait, and hope that the trend continues down (i think they will be at least -3 favorites by game day, or lower)

note: KD is "doubtful" on one website and "out" on another that I use, but I am treating him as out for my "Line Estimate".
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 1890
June 11th, 2019 at 11:49:56 AM permalink
RIP Durant’s prime. He might be 32 before he plays a game again and coming off an Achilles, chance of being an MVP level player again are slim, he should still always be an all star if he can stay on the court based on size and extreme skill alone. What a bad look on the segment of fans who were cheering the injury. It’s a different wide open nba now, we’re looking fairly clearly at post prime on both LeBron and KD now.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 65
  • Posts: 386
June 11th, 2019 at 2:02:29 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

RIP...What a bad look on the segment of fans who were cheering the injury...


Yes it was, and because of that I still don't know that when they started "clapping" for him/ at him as he was leaving the court, if it was a sign of respect*** or not.

*** : usually most/all fan's clap any player off the field/court as a sign of respect, when they are badly injured but conscious.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 11, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 65
  • Posts: 386
June 11th, 2019 at 2:24:59 PM permalink
If you are a Raptors punter you should take the +3.0 available at most books (if you haven't already bet).
If you are a Warriors punter I think you should wait, but -2.5 is available @ WESTGATE SUPERBOOK, if you wish to bet now.

The line has been trending down so far, with majority of the early $ and % on the Raptors. (Edit: changed some of the Wording @ ~ 4pm)

Update (~4 pm)

The +3 is still available for the Raptors (at most books according to vegas insider).
I think the Warriors have about an 84% chance to go to -2.5 and a 60% chance to go through -2.0, so I think Warriors punters should wait.
This will probably be my last update for the day, as I will be busy with other things
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 11, 2019
michael99000
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 1367
Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
June 11th, 2019 at 3:41:44 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Yes it was, and because of that I still don't know that when they started "clapping" for him/ at him as he was leaving the court, if it was a sign of respect*** or not.

*** : usually most/all fan's clap any player off the field/court as a sign of respect, when they are badly injured but conscious.



They were initially cheering that he was injured. The loudest cheers came the moment he grabbed his leg and fell to the court.

The cheers you heard as he walked off were only because the raptors players scolded the crowd for cheering that someone got injured.
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
  • Threads: 23
  • Posts: 1999
June 11th, 2019 at 6:19:12 PM permalink
Gotta hand it to KD. He risked many millions to try to help get the title.

Idk. Maybe he can still get a long max deal because he is KD but an injury of that magnitude can't help

  • Jump to: