Need suggestion for "Risk Free 1st Sports Bet" promo
- Download the BorgataSports app and create a new account
- Place a 1st bet of $25 or more and if your bet loses, get a refund up to $250 in cash back.
- First sports wager must be made within 7 days of signing up for account
- First sports wager outcome must be settled within 7 days of the date you placed the wager
Any suggestions?
Quote: TumblingBonesI received an offer from Borgota Sports for a $250 Risk Free First Bet promotion. My problem is that I know absolutely zilch about sports betting. Also, other than watching the Super Bowl, the only sport I follow on a regular basis curling. I am therefore coming at this in total ignorance of how to play this The fine print is as follows:
- Download the BorgataSports app and create a new account
- Place a 1st bet of $25 or more and if your bet loses, get a refund up to $250 in cash back.
- First sports wager must be made within 7 days of signing up for account
- First sports wager outcome must be settled within 7 days of the date you placed the wager
Any suggestions?
Alexander Rossi to win the Indy 500 this weekend.
Quote: TumblingBonesI received an offer from Borgota Sports for a $250 Risk Free First Bet promotion. My problem is that I know absolutely zilch about sports betting. Also, other than watching the Super Bowl, the only sport I follow on a regular basis curling. I am therefore coming at this in total ignorance of how to play this The fine print is as follows:
- Download the BorgataSports app and create a new account
- Place a 1st bet of $25 or more and if your bet loses, get a refund up to $250 in cash back.
- First sports wager must be made within 7 days of signing up for account
- First sports wager outcome must be settled within 7 days of the date you placed the wager
Any suggestions?
to maximize value you should put the $250 on the longest odds you can find on the site. something like 50-1 or greater would be best.
Go for it. They are offering a CASH rebate rather than credits or freeplay or something. Grab it.Quote: sodawaterto maximize value you should put the $250 on the longest odds you can find on the site. something like 50-1 or greater would be best.
Quote: TumblingBonesI received an offer from Borgota Sports for a $250 Risk Free First Bet promotion. My problem is that I know absolutely zilch about sports betting. Also, other than watching the Super Bowl, the only sport I follow on a regular basis curling. I am therefore coming at this in total ignorance of how to play this The fine print is as follows:
- Download the BorgataSports app and create a new account
- Place a 1st bet of $25 or more and if your bet loses, get a refund up to $250 in cash back.
- First sports wager must be made within 7 days of signing up for account
- First sports wager outcome must be settled within 7 days of the date you placed the wager
Any suggestions?
I would put a parlay in and go for the grand salami. Free roll is the best way to bring home a large payout with no fear n no risk. Take a look and see if you can put in an 8-team parlay. Payout wld be nearly 100-1. They are very hard to hit, but if you hit it it is a beautiful thing. I hit an 8 team parlay last week and the payout was 90 to 1 . You could also do a lesser number of teams for lesser payout.
Quote: GWAEDepends what you want ouf of it. Do you want a guaranteed win or do you want to free roll a large payday?
Yeah. There might be some limit on the pay other.
But go for it. IDK why so many people are happy to gamble away thousands and then when a +ev chance to hit it big comes, they turn chicken.
Not directed at any one. Just the general tendency I've noticed.
If you can get this on like a 10-1 shot could be pretty sweet.
Can you list the teams you took and what lines and prices?Quote: WatchMeWinI would put a parlay in and go for the grand salami. Free roll is the best way to bring home a large payout with no fear n no risk. Take a look and see if you can put in an 8-team parlay. Payout wld be nearly 100-1. They are very hard to hit, but if you hit it it is a beautiful thing. I hit an 8 team parlay last week and the payout was 90 to 1 . You could also do a lesser number of teams for lesser payout.
- stay away from horse racing and stick to football or baseball (HE of ~ 17% on former and ~ 2% to 5% on later)
- always bet the underdog for a better HE
Of course, given the strategy of only making a single $250 bet and then walking away, do I even care about the HE or, as WatchMe suggests, is it better to just go for the big payout?
Quote: TumblingBonesAfter putting in some study-time reading the Wizard's analysis and advice on sports betting, my take-away is
- stay away from horse racing and stick to football or baseball (HE of ~ 17% on former and ~ 2% to 5% on later)
- always bet the underdog for a better HE
Of course, given the strategy of only making a single $250 bet and then walking away, do I even care about the HE or, as WatchMe suggests, is it better to just go for the big payout?
I think you have to keep in mind that they will sit on your $250 for a while, so I would prefer to risk it on one event just outside of my comfort zone, rather than hope for a lightning strike 8 team parlay, or a 1000-1 longshot. That way you can enjoy watching the event(s), hopefully, all the way through.
Whatever you choose, I wish you the best of luck!
Quote: WatchMeWinI would put a parlay in and go for the grand salami. Free roll is the best way to bring home a large payout with no fear n no risk. Take a look and see if you can put in an 8-team parlay. Payout wld be nearly 100-1. They are very hard to hit, but if you hit it it is a beautiful thing. I hit an 8 team parlay last week and the payout was 90 to 1 . You could also do a lesser number of teams for lesser payout.
but it is not really a free roll. He can guarantee himself a $200 profit. Since there is a guaranteed profit then I don't technically consider it free roll. IMO this is the same thing s playing with house money.
WatchMeWin.Quote: AxelWolfCan you list the teams you took and what lines and prices?
Danm, how long does it take you to google search and make some Sh*t up? (-;
Quote: AxelWolfWatchMeWin.
Danm, how long does it take you to google search and make some Sh*t up? (-;
His picks have been awful. He hit a few NFL teasers last year but since then the bets he’s posted here have been losers
His unposted bets though, that he lets us know about afterwards, are still all winning.
Quote: GWAEHe can guarantee himself a $200 profit.
How so?
Quote: sodawaterto maximize value you should put the $250 on the longest odds you can find on the site. something like 50-1 or greater would be best.
I wouldn't consider placing $250 on a random 50-1 as "maximizing value." Standard future pools have the highest expected hold throughout the entire sportsbook.
The wager has to be resolved in 7 days.Quote: SM777I wouldn't consider placing $250 on a random 50-1 as "maximizing value." Standard future pools have the highest expected hold throughout the entire sportsbook.
He's either going to lose $46 or win $227 with a 1x playthrough. If that is the rules, that $227 should be worth $215.
I'd pick a game with a half point spread if you go this way.
Well, duh!! It's absolutely no surprise to me whatsoever(from day one). It must be all the magnets in the sports equipment they are using.Quote: michael99000His picks have been awful. He hit a few NFL teasers last year but since then the bets he’s posted here have been losers
His unposted bets though, that he lets us know about afterwards, are still all winning.
Quote: TumblingBonesI received an offer from Borgota Sports for a $250 Risk Free First Bet promotion. My problem is that I know absolutely zilch about sports betting. Also, other than watching the Super Bowl, the only sport I follow on a regular basis curling. I am therefore coming at this in total ignorance of how to play this The fine print is as follows:
- Download the BorgataSports app and create a new account
- Place a 1st bet of $25 or more and if your bet loses, get a refund up to $250 in cash back.
- First sports wager must be made within 7 days of signing up for account
- First sports wager outcome must be settled within 7 days of the date you placed the wager
Any suggestions?
A free bet is a free bet. I'm a more mathematical, conservative sort and would just put the whole wad on a near 50/50 bet. Personally, I'd put my money on the Boston Bruins.
Quote: LovecompsA free bet is a free bet. I'm a more mathematical, conservative sort and would just put the whole wad on a near 50/50 bet. Personally, I'd put my money on the Boston Bruins.
If you were a mathematical type you would realize that a 50/50 proposition is a horrible way to play a free bet, because it gives only 50% of face value.
Quote: sodawaterIf you were a mathematical type you would realize that a 50/50 proposition is a horrible way to play a free bet, because it gives only 50% of face value.
I understand the idea of free "risk", but where is maximum value in a situation like this? Is it better to take a 1000 to 1 shot because the opportunity is free, even though it is very highly unlikely that you will be successful; or is it a better bet to go for 11 to 10 since you have the maximum amount of profit for the lowest risk?
In other words, is 10% of something better than 999% of nothing when the cost is someone holding your money for several weeks?
I believe this was the first correct answerQuote: sodawaterto maximize value you should put the $250 on the longest odds you can find on the site. something like 50-1 or greater would be best.
the reason is the value of a bet is determined by amount-to-win * probability of winning, minus amount-to-lose * probability of losing
so for the Craps pass line bet, [244/495] - [251/495] = -0.0141414141414141
but if it is a free bet, it's 244/495 minus nothing , or 0.4929292929292929 [+ not -]
however, if you placed the bet on a number in roulette, single zero,
35*[1/37]-1*[36/37] = -0.027027027027027
but 35*[1/37] minus zero = 0.9459459459459459
plain and simple, however, the trade off is how much unlikelihood of winning can you take?
Quote: odiousgambitI believe this was the first correct answer
the reason is the value of a bet is determined by amount-to-win * probability of winning, minus amount-to-lose * probability of losing
so for the Craps pass line bet, [244/495] - [251/495] = -0.0141414141414141
but if it is a free bet, it's 244/495 minus nothing , or 0.4929292929292929 [+ not -]
however, if you placed the bet on a number in roulette, single zero,
35*[1/37]-1*[36/37] = -0.027027027027027
but 35*[1/37] minus zero = 0.9459459459459459
plain and simple, however, the trade off is how much unlikelihood of winning can you take?
My only argument to this is there is a way to guarantee a win. Since you can guarantee a win of a small amount, that win amount should be what is used as your risk.
Quote: AyecarumbaI understand the idea of free "risk", but where is maximum value in a situation like this? Is it better to take a 1000 to 1 shot because the opportunity is free, even though it is very highly unlikely that you will be successful; or is it a better bet to go for 11 to 10 since you have the maximum amount of profit for the lowest risk?
In other words, is 10% of something better than 999% of nothing when the cost is someone holding your money for several weeks?
Assume fair (no house edge) bets.
If you use the $100 free bet on a 1 to 1 bet, 50 percent of the time you will get +$100, and 50 percent of the time you will get 0. EV is 0.5 * $100 = $50.
If you use the $100 free bet on a 999 to 1 bet, 0.1 percent of the time you will get +$99,000, and 99.9 percent of the time you will get 0. EV is 0.001 * 99,000 = $99.
The longer the odds, the closer you approach the upper limit of the value of the free bet, which is "face value."
Any discussion about utility of money is largely academic, because you're not going to find many bets longer than 100 to 1 shots in a sportsbook. Sure, you could bet it on a 50-50 chance to get a decent shot at a positive return, but you're paying way too much in EV for that, unless $50 is life changing money.
My advice is to maximize EV by betting the longest odds you can.
Quote: GWAE
My only argument to this is there is a way to guarantee a win. Since you can guarantee a win of a small amount, that win amount should be what is used as your risk.
There are many ways to "guarantee a win" when the house is offering you a promotion. Unless you NEED the amount of the guarantee, it should not enter into your calculations on how to play the promotion.
I know how you feel, and to do it 'right' and get nothing but knowing it was a free bet = not too much fun. You have to squeeze as much satisfaction as you can out of the Wizardly expression "It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet."Quote: GWAEMy only argument to this is there is a way to guarantee a win. Since you can guarantee a win of a small amount, that win amount should be what is used as your risk.
The casino seems to always handle their offer to cover the bet by having you use your own money to bet, then they offer you a betting situation to get your money back. To add to the confusion of the whole process, in "phase 2" , to put it that way, for sure you want to forget making the long shot but select instead a low HE bet, and I believe it is true that you also want low variance [perhaps the latter is debatable]. Personally, I would not like to bet more riskily than I usually do, at the very least, for this phase 2. So, once you internalize this as the right way to go, you can easily take that feeling to phase one as well. Perhaps the House has found that this is one of the reasons they want to do it the way they do.
Looking to get a guaranteed amount in phase one just means trading opportunity away. It's a harsh thing to say in response to your statement, and it isn't as if I have no sympathy for the way you feel as I mentioned. But if you don't believe it, just note how the House will not allow longshot bets to be used with much of what they offer, such as with match-play bets and so on.
Quote: AyecarumbaHey Tumbling Bones, did you go for the promo? I hope you didn't use my Indy 500 advice, which would have resulted in a loss by 0.2086 of a second.
The quick answer is that so far I have not placed a bet. After doing some studying, even going so far as to actually look at the sports section in the Sunday, paper, I am even more convinced as to how little I know about sports betting. At this stage, I might as well put the names of teams on the wall and throw darts. I would prefer, however, to take steps to shift things more in my favor. More on that in a moment. First...
Quote: prozemaHe could just pick any random -110 game and bet the other side at another book.
He's either going to lose $46 or win $227 with a 1x playthrough. If that is the rules, that $227 should be worth $215.
I'd pick a game with a half point spread if you go this way.
If I understand your proposal correctly, that would require that I actually risk $$ by placing the 2nd bet elsewhere. I'm looking at this from the standpoint of 1 bet at the Borgota and, therefore, with a zero downside
Quote: AyecarumbaI understand the idea of free "risk", but where is maximum value in a situation like this? Is it better to take a 1000 to 1 shot because the opportunity is free, even though it is very highly unlikely that you will be successful; or is it a better bet to go for 11 to 10 since you have the maximum amount of profit for the lowest risk?
In other words, is 10% of something better than 999% of nothing when the cost is someone holding your money for several weeks?
Agree 100%. This is the key question, as illustrated by the two opposite approaches advocated by GWAE and sodawater.
So I can summarize the situation at this point as (1) I still have no confidence in my own ability to come up with an optimal strategy and (2) the esteemed members of the forum who have offered advice have (no surprise) not reached a consensus. So I have decided that my best option is to offer to hire one of you to act as my consultant who will pick the bet I place. The question or course is who is interested, what's in it for them, and who do I pick? In trying to figure out who actually knows best the ins-and-outs of sports betting, it seems to me that talk is cheap. So after some pondering, as well as significant late-night drinking, I have come up with the following proposal:
- I will select from those interested candidates, one of you to act as "betting consultant"
- The selected consultant will pick one bet that meets with the requirements of the promotion. I will place the bet with my own money (max of $250). If the bet wins, the consultant receives 90% of the profits and I receive the remaining 10%. Obviously, I also get back the amount wagered. If the bet loses or is a push, the consultant gets nothing while the Borgota, under the rules of the promotion, refunds to me my original wager. However....
-
Anyone interested in acting as consultant must indicate their willingness (and confidence in their abilities) by submitting a bid for the right to act in that role. The highest bidder will be selected.
- To be considered, bids must be submitted no later than noon ET June 30th
- Individual who submitted the winning bid must pay tme the bid amount prior to the placing of the bet and within 7 days of being selected. Otherwise, the next highest bidder gets the right to act as consultant.
- If two or more individuals tie for highest bidder the bidding period is extended for an additional 24 hours. If there is still a tie winner is selected randomly
- The bid amount is non-refundable with the exception of the conditions identified in Section 4
- If the consultant selects a bet that satisfies the requirements of the promotion and for any reason I fail to make that bet, then the bid amount will be refunded.
- Any disagreements over the execution of the betting process will be submitted to the Wizard (or a representative designated by him) for binding arbitration.
For example, if the bid is $20 and the profit from the bet is $100, the the consultant will have a net profit of $70 = ($100 * 0.9) - $20. If the bet loses or is a push, they are out the $20 bid amount.
So, anybody interested?
You are making a free bet, while the 'consultant' gets to make, through you, an ordinary bet, seemingly with conditions that make it worse than an ordinary bet... such as losing on pushes and not getting your original wager back on wins, plus ... well, correct me if I am wrong so far.Quote: TumblingBonesFor example, if the bid is $20 and the profit from the bet is $100, the the consultant will have a net profit of $70 = ($100 * 0.9) - $20. If the bet loses or is a push, they are out the $20 bid amount.
So, anybody interested?
Maybe you would have better success picking a "consultant" by having potential partners PM you 10 - 20 selections ahead of the weekend, then seeing who has the best record?
I think you still need to decide on your comfort with risk. A strong case was made above that the maths support shooting the moon since the entry price is "free".
Quote: AxelWolfWatchMeWin.
Danm, how long does it take you to google search and make some Sh*t up? (-;
Actually you are just not worth my time.
Quote: odiousgambitYou are making a free bet, while the 'consultant' gets to make, through you, an ordinary bet, seemingly with conditions that make it worse than an ordinary bet... such as losing on pushes and not getting your original wager back on wins, plus ... well, correct me if I am wrong so far.
I'm sort of viewing this as an exercise in applied game theory. My thought in constructing this was that unless there was some small risk to the consultant, there would be no way to determine who actually had confidence in their track-record. At the same time, the risk/reward ratio should be heavily tilted in the consultant's favor. That's why they get 90% of any winnings. I truly don't expect any large bids (if any at all). Probably a few dollars at most. The purpose of the bidding is psychological, not financial. But to be completely honest, at this point I am more interested in how people approach the problem than I am in making what a few bucks. At the core of all this is the problem you and others have addressed: how to assign an expected value to this offer? Or another way to put it: I have the offer.... what's it actual worth to someone?
that said, I'm not adverse to some tweaks based on feedback. In the event of a push, the bid will be refunded.
Quote: AyecarumbaI got a chuckle at "non-refundable".
Maybe you would have better success picking a "consultant" by having potential partners PM you 10 - 20 selections ahead of the weekend, then seeing who has the best record?
I think you still need to decide on your comfort with risk. A strong case was made above that the maths support shooting the moon since the entry price is "free".
If you have that much confidence in the "shoot the moon" strategy, why not submit a bid?
1. TB, your "bid" scheme would create incentive for the bidder to maximize his value at the expense of your value. The whole setup is incorrect.
2. Wizard has already covered this topic on his site. See the promotional chips strategy section: https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/promotional-chips/
Quote: Wizard
If unrestricted, the player should make a long-shot wager, preferably on a single number in roulette.
The house edge on any given bet is negligible compared to the value gained by going for longshots.
You don't need a bid system. Just look into any future or props bet with about 50 to 1 odds, pick one you like, and that's it.
Quote: TumblingBonesI received an offer from Borgota Sports for a $250 Risk Free First Bet promotion. My problem is that I know absolutely zilch about sports betting. Also, other than watching the Super Bowl, the only sport I follow on a regular basis curling. I am therefore coming at this in total ignorance of how to play this The fine print is as follows:
- Download the BorgataSports app and create a new account
- Place a 1st bet of $25 or more and if your bet loses, get a refund up to $250 in cash back.
- First sports wager must be made within 7 days of signing up for account
- First sports wager outcome must be settled within 7 days of the date you placed the wager
Any suggestions?
Did you sign up yet? If you are opting to go for the gusto, I will offer giving you my picks ABSOLUTELY FREE! No guarantee , but if you want to take a free shot at making 20-1 up to 100-1 long shot, I would give you my picks for whatever day to choose. I hit many of my 4,5,6 team parlays, however, I also just miss by 1 or 2 teams when I do miss. No hidden agenda. You put it out there, so here is your prayer answered. #Im Very Good
Quote: WatchMeWinDid you sign up yet? If you are opting to go for the gusto, I will offer giving you my picks ABSOLUTELY FREE! No guarantee , but if you want to take a free shot at making 20-1 up to 100-1 long shot, I would give you my picks for whatever day to choose. I hit many of my 4,5,6 team parlays, however, I also just miss by 1 or 2 teams when I do miss. No hidden agenda. You put it out there, so here is your prayer answered. #Im Very Good
I thought I'd give you a glimpse of my ticket from last night so you have an idea of the parlays I'm talking about. I typically put in one or two parlays in a day after I have won on the craps table. I play my parlays with a portion of my winnings.
I had to get my ticket out of the trash because it was a loser, nevertheless it will give you an idea. I won five out of six games on the parley. The only game that lost was a run line bet, texas. My team won but they did not win by 2 runsj, which is what I bet. The payout woyld have been around 33 to 1.
http://imgur.com/r25KYgM
I'm sill waiting for him to post up what teams and the lines he had on his 8 team parlay win. Not sure why the payout odds were so low.Quote: beachbumbabsWell, it appears the bidding has opened at $0. Anybody else?
Quote: AxelWolfI'm sill waiting for him to post up what teams and the lines he had on his 8 team parlay win. Not sure why the payout odds were so low.
You are supposed to be an AP extraordinaire! You can't even figure out how an 8 team parlay could pay 90-1? Bright folks could figure that out. It's all about the odds on each play.
You sure are fixated on me so this will be the last time I prove you wrong again. Are you just a jealous guy? Can you not stand that somebody can actually make money and have a good life , when you apparently can't?
What is your real reason for needing all of this information Inspector Clouseau? Nothing about you seems right. Btw, how many fake accounts do do you have here?
Anyway... Here it is. You can go back on the date and look at all the games and see if they won or not. Have fun! I sure did!
http://imgur.com/W16IiKl
Quote: AxelWolfI'm sill waiting for him to post up what teams and the lines he had on his 8 team parlay win. Not sure why the payout odds were so low.
What happened? I posted your requested information. Are you stunned that your disgaceful n unwarrented accusations are debunked once again? What's taking you so long... Don't you know how to Google search something to make you feel better about yourself?
http://imgur.com/W16IiKl
Hey... Where did Tumbling Dice go?
Quote: sabreIf I won every single time I played craps I'm pretty sure I wouldn't get triggered by things posted on a gambling message board. Then again my butler would post for me, so maybe it's apples to oranges. Or mangoes. I want a mango.
Butler's and Villas are fun. I save that for my special trips. Otherwise I am in and out too quick and don't care about comps in local sh_==holes that can't offer hotels, spas, and all the bells and whistles .
Not everyone, just guys like you. Speaking of fake accounts, that's a very nice looking ticket. What took ya so long?Quote: WatchMeWinI'm still waiting for the big mouth who is always criticizing everyone, but now has nothing to say, to answer my question regarding how many fake accounts he has in this form.
Hey... Where did Tumbling Dice go?
My comment on the odds was that I thought that was low for an 8 team parlay win.
Have a wonderful day, and stay hydrated.
Quote: AxelWolfNot everyone, just guys like you. Speaking of fake accounts, that's a very nice looking ticket. What took ya so long?
My comment on the odds was that I thought that was low for an 8 team parlay win.
Have a wonderful day, and stay hydrated.
Thats what you come back with? Lame! You are losing your touch grasshopper. Or perhaps I shut your big barking mouth with validation of the seemingly impossible to some who are of lessor knowledge. Game theory. How about this, chappy... you tell me how many fake accounts you have here, and Ill tell you how I came up with that ticket?
WatchMeWin, take a warning: Your last several posts have been IMHO personal insults, in words and in tone.Quote: WatchMeWinThats what you come back with? Lame! You are losing your touch grasshopper. Or perhaps I shut your big barking mouth with validation of the seemingly impossible to some who are of lessor knowledge. Game theory. How about this, chappy... you tell me how many fake accounts you have here, and Ill tell you how I came up with that ticket?
We get it: Axel is not your BFF and you object to his analysis.
No suspension from me, if you'd kindly lose the attitude.
Axel, please keep it courteous too.
Quote: OnceDearWatchMeWin, take a warning: Your last several posts have been IMHO personal insults, in words and in tone.
We get it: Axel is not your BFF and you object to his analysis.
No suspension from me, if you'd kindly lose the attitude.
Axel, please keep it courteous too.
I appreciate you coming to Axel's Defense as he was dumbfounded with my proof of 8 team parlay which he had vehemently criticized and dismissed as a reality. For the first time ever since Ive been on the forum and witnessing dozens upon dozens of insults and ruthless comments to many members of the forum, he was speechless. I take that as a complement.
However, notwithstanding the aforementioned, Axel is a big boy and he can surely dish out the insults, therefore he can take any reciprocal remarks. I actually think he is quite funny and I don't take anything personal, at all. They are compliments to me.
I only request one answer to my question.... how many fake accounts here does he have? This is something the moderators should know and monitor, no?
