Aussie
Aussie
Joined: Dec 29, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
May 13th, 2019 at 5:57:37 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

You are probably right.

As far as I know only the one sports book does this (others let you cash out, but this one lets you do it for "free").

I am thinking of doing one of the strategies below (to potentially make the play last longer) :

(1) Having a single bet on either the under or the over.
This will roughly halve the value of the betting type mentioned in the OP per game (but it may let me play longer?)

(2) Having two (or more) accounts and betting different amounts and times on both the over and under.
The value for this type will be almost as good*** as the OP per game (plus it will possibly be harder to track?)

***: the total could change in the one to four hours that i plan to wait before i have the second bet with my friends account

(3) Use either of the above strategies, in conjunction with "normal bets^^^", (lets call these "cover bets").
This will reduce the EV of this play, but will possibly let me play longer?

^^^: bets that generally have a long-term - EV, or at the very least bets that I "let ride", no matter which way the value goes.

Which of the above strategies would you use (if any)?
Do you have another strategy you could suggest?

Thanks




Which book are you using if you don’t me asking? Send me a PM of you prefer.

If only one book offers this then I would go for 1 or 3. Option 2 won’t last long. The books will quickly see that the same accounts are betting opposite sides of the same games.

My experience playing these types of things as well as the promo markets is that some bets that appear to be “normal” bets will increase the life of your account. They will ban you eventually regardless but some of these will fool them for longer. For example if I have a bonus bet I will back the dog with the bonus bet and the fav elsewhere with cash. I give up a small amount of EV by doing this instead of using Betfair but I get it back with my account lasting longer. I have lasted much longer than other people I know by doing this.

Also obviously worth getting some bowler accounts. Easy enough to find friends or family to sign up for you. And easy to get multiple prepaid sims so you aren’t logging on from the same IP.
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux 
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
May 13th, 2019 at 7:46:39 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Thanks for the post.
I still think it is worth trying, but maybe with a different strategy.
I have just been looking at "sports insights think-tank" page (it is a paid service) and it has a few systems that have been profitable.
One system is called "betting against the public on reverse line movements (on the under)", that means if most of the public is on the over, but the total trends down for that game, then you should bet on the under.
Note: even before i got a paid account with sports insights, i knew about the "against the public" strategies from previous research (but i did not know how much it was worth).



It's worth little to nothing, imo. For one thing, I've very skeptical of their ability to distinguish between "the public" and "sharps." A lot of this language seems to be very touty. I am also skeptical of their ability to get accurate info as to who is betting what.

As to the earlier question, consistently beating the prevailing line almost of has to be good if you think it through.

Ultimately, in order for it not to be good, the bookies must be constantly offering +ev bets without anybody ever noticing or adjusting.

There's a lot more to it than that, and a lot of hypothetical discussion. But if anybody wants to book my bets on NBA totals and give me an extra two points off the prevailing line, lmk.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
May 14th, 2019 at 6:27:01 AM permalink
your strategy creates an opportunity for a 𝐦𝐢𝐝𝐝𝐥𝐞

If a point spread opens at +4.5 / -4.5 – and moves to +2.5 / -2.5 there’s an opportunity for a middle. If you bet on the Raptors at +4.5 when the initial line releases and take the Bucs at -2.5 after it shifts, there’s a chance you can win both bets. If you do, you’ll hit the middle, and receive a big-time profit

you would win both bets if the Bucs win by 3 or 4

otherwise you would win one side and lose the other side losing only the vig

I consider a middle to be an advantage play but it's very difficult to determine what the edge is
𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘴 𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘺 𝘸𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘭𝘢𝘴𝘵. 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘭𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘴 𝘸𝘰𝘯'𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦 𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘺
SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
May 14th, 2019 at 7:45:41 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

your strategy creates an opportunity for a 𝐦𝐢𝐝𝐝𝐥𝐞

If a point spread opens at +4.5 / -4.5 – and moves to +2.5 / -2.5 there’s an opportunity for a middle. If you bet on the Raptors at +4.5 when the initial line releases and take the Bucs at -2.5 after it shifts, there’s a chance you can win both bets. If you do, you’ll hit the middle, and receive a big-time profit

you would win both bets if the Bucs win by 3 or 4

otherwise you would win one side and lose the other side losing only the vig

I consider a middle to be an advantage play but it's very difficult to determine what the edge is



Very few middles in very few sports present a worthwhile betting opportunity.
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
May 14th, 2019 at 10:38:47 AM permalink
Quote: SM777

Very few middles in very few sports present a worthwhile betting opportunity.



This is true. Though if you are lucky in your full game bets, you can find some interesting middles at halftime.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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May 14th, 2019 at 12:57:15 PM permalink
Thanks for the posts everyone.

At the moment it looks like the total for tonight's game will be about 220.5 (most likely between 220 to 221.5), so I think i got about two points there.

Based on that I will probably reduce the bet from 2200 to 330, when the game starts ( most likely live betting***).

***: For some reason their cash out feature works the way it should for live betting, so if i am quick enough, i may be able to earn a few dollars on the cash out (since they pay you more than your initial bet on cash outs that have moved in your favor, live betting).

Also, got Raptors @ +6.5, and U218 for that game, but will wait and see what happens closer to game time for that one.

-------------
Update (about 140 pm Pac time)

I have a pinnacle sports account that lets me log in and work out what they think half a point is worth on the total (but since i live in Australia i haven't been able to bet with them since 2017).

Their point buying/selling on the total is very close to the Wizard's page.

Wiz has 1.158% as the value of buying half a point and pinnacle has 1.268% for half a point (buying off totals that are close to "50% chance").

Also, too bad i can't use pinnacle anymore, as i could lock in a profit by betting on the U219 @ +119

---------------
Update 2 (about 155 Pact time)

Buying points on the spread is worth about 2.06% on the Wiz's page and about 2% according to pinnacle (buying off spreads that are close to "50% chance").
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 14, 2019

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