NFL chase strategy - Looking for Backtesting help
November 5th, 2010 at 12:32:41 AM
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Wizard, I'd like for you to use your NFL past results database to take a look at something for me, if you have the time and wouldnt mind. This
is a chase system that Ive been told has been extremely successful over the past 20 years in the NFL (and to a lesser degree in the NBA and NHL).
The way it works is, you wait until a team has lost three straight games both straight up AND against the spread. At that point you bet on them
to cover the spread (whether they are a dog or favorite) in the 4th game. If they lose you double up on them again in the 5th game, and so on if it comes to a 6th game (which Im told rarely happens) Now that method i just described would be martingaling the team until they cover a spread. I believe you can also
use the less risky Labby Line betting method, but either way the point is that as long as a team does not lose 3 straight games against the spread after
having already lost 3 straight against the spread and straight up, you will profit 1 unit every time this situation arises.
If your unit is $100, then in game 1 (which is game 4 of that teams losing streak) youd lay 110 to win 100, if it loses youd lay 231 to win 210 in game 2, and in
game 3 if necessary youd lay 375 to win 341. Any time the system fails because the team loses 6 in a row ATS youd lose 716 and every time the system wins
you profit 100. You need to be 88% successful to profit in the long run.
So I guess what id like to know is, how many times in the past lets say 20 years ( or however far back your database of results goes) has a team lost
3 games in a row ATS and straight up, followed up by 3 more ATS losses in a row? Thanks in advance if your able to help me out.
I believe there are about 15 - 20 opportunities per season to play this system. One this year was Carolina which lost its first 3 games both ATS and SU and then were a
winner in game 4 ATS so no further chase was necessary. The 2008 Lions who went 0-16 never lost more than 4 games in a row ATS
is a chase system that Ive been told has been extremely successful over the past 20 years in the NFL (and to a lesser degree in the NBA and NHL).
The way it works is, you wait until a team has lost three straight games both straight up AND against the spread. At that point you bet on them
to cover the spread (whether they are a dog or favorite) in the 4th game. If they lose you double up on them again in the 5th game, and so on if it comes to a 6th game (which Im told rarely happens) Now that method i just described would be martingaling the team until they cover a spread. I believe you can also
use the less risky Labby Line betting method, but either way the point is that as long as a team does not lose 3 straight games against the spread after
having already lost 3 straight against the spread and straight up, you will profit 1 unit every time this situation arises.
If your unit is $100, then in game 1 (which is game 4 of that teams losing streak) youd lay 110 to win 100, if it loses youd lay 231 to win 210 in game 2, and in
game 3 if necessary youd lay 375 to win 341. Any time the system fails because the team loses 6 in a row ATS youd lose 716 and every time the system wins
you profit 100. You need to be 88% successful to profit in the long run.
So I guess what id like to know is, how many times in the past lets say 20 years ( or however far back your database of results goes) has a team lost
3 games in a row ATS and straight up, followed up by 3 more ATS losses in a row? Thanks in advance if your able to help me out.
I believe there are about 15 - 20 opportunities per season to play this system. One this year was Carolina which lost its first 3 games both ATS and SU and then were a
winner in game 4 ATS so no further chase was necessary. The 2008 Lions who went 0-16 never lost more than 4 games in a row ATS
