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redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
  • Threads: 49
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July 3rd, 2019 at 1:53:31 PM permalink
I have to step in here and say this. As I see it, the use of the term "EV" is sports betting is problematic. Sports betting is a game of opinion, not numbers. The term EV (without quotation marks) is appropriate when referencing video poker or blackjack or fair coin flips. But I think it's arrogant to try to assign EV to games of opinion.

Technically, logically, and in the service of some kind of personal humility, nobody should be assigning EV to future events with future spreads whose provenance is opaque.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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July 3rd, 2019 at 3:12:23 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

There is nothing wrong with that [hedging to guarantee something back]. I like your style. ... Whatever it takes to pocket some guaranteed cash.

Quote: AxelWolf

Yes, we must have it [smartest play with loss rebate] thoroughly explained to everyone including the casinos so they realize just how bad pf a mistake they are making and figure out something else.

hmmm, taking both sides here?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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July 3rd, 2019 at 3:28:10 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: AxelWolf

There is nothing wrong with that [hedging to guarantee something back]. I like your style. ... Whatever it takes to pocket some guaranteed cash.

Quote: AxelWolf

Yes, we must have it [smartest play with loss rebate] thoroughly explained to everyone including the casinos so they realize just how bad pf a mistake they are making and figure out something else.

hmmm, taking both sides here?

Hedging my bets.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
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July 3rd, 2019 at 4:03:45 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

it's really encouraging to know you don't read the other posts. The guy who is proud of himself for asking the questions but doesn't listen to the answers?
Now I do have to admit I understand this point of view completely. And yet again the advice is mixed from reasonable people.

The Wizard seems to have promised to address this in his next AMA at youtube or in an Ask-the-W. At least I am going to bug him till he does.



I guess I am getting dumb then because I do not remember reading different ways other that grind it out.

If there were 2500 different opportunities to get this loss rebate then I would be ok with a variance. With there being very limited opportunities then I ok with taking the least amount of variance possible. +1200 is better for me than having a spread of 200- 4000 or whatever
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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July 4th, 2019 at 12:46:08 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I guess I am getting dumb then because I do not remember reading different ways other that grind it out.

If there were 2500 different opportunities to get this loss rebate then I would be ok with a variance. With there being very limited opportunities then I ok with taking the least amount of variance possible. +1200 is better for me than having a spread of 200- 4000 or whatever

Just figure out how to get some accounts in your kids name.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
  • Threads: 49
  • Posts: 767
July 4th, 2019 at 2:46:21 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Just figure out how to get some accounts in your kids name.



Or gamble, and make a deal with your ex.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
  • Threads: 93
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Thanks for this post from:
AZDuffman
July 21st, 2019 at 10:27:44 AM permalink
I screwed up and put $500 on parx, but I didnt click the sports bet bonus so it went in as a casino deposit and they matched it. I was going to call to see if I can have it fixed but I figured ahh wtf I will just play it. This was at 7am. play through was 20x the bonus so 10x the total balance. I just spent the last 7 hours playing at $3-$7 per bet which is way higher than my normal. I put 10k coin in at just cashed out at $1629.87. I had 3 hits of over $800 but none over 1200 for a w2g. It was a good morning. I will be curious if I will get some offers via the online casino or their land based. 10k coin in on slots I think is pretty strong even when they spotted $500 of the bankroll. I guess I will see.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 229
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July 26th, 2019 at 12:13:27 PM permalink
GWAE and all other fellow sportsbetting degenerates, including myself!

pa.sportsbook.fanduel.com is now up and running. $500 1st bet refund!

I have not read the full details but this one looks to be a refund on your first bet up to $500. I have just had a few minutes to look here while I work, but this looks at least as good as the $250 deposit match. Ideal AP would be to bet the $500 there and another $500 somewhere else, taking both sides. Or just pick and make a bet, take an actual chance.

GWAE, input, please, as you are the other main PA guy on here.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
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July 26th, 2019 at 2:10:33 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

GWAE and all other fellow sportsbetting degenerates, including myself!

pa.sportsbook.fanduel.com is now up and running. $500 1st bet refund!

I have not read the full details but this one looks to be a refund on your first bet up to $500. I have just had a few minutes to look here while I work, but this looks at least as good as the $250 deposit match. Ideal AP would be to bet the $500 there and another $500 somewhere else, taking both sides. Or just pick and make a bet, take an actual chance.

GWAE, input, please, as you are the other main PA guy on here.



I got a warning from parx today. They have a 250 free bet like fan duel has. I bet opposite sides on -110 each. One on my account and 1 on wife's. One wins and other loses and gets the free bet. I haven't looked at fan duel so not sure exactly if it is a refund or free bet. I believe it is a free bet on a losing bet.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 229
  • Posts: 12671
July 26th, 2019 at 3:24:06 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I got a warning from parx today. They have a 250 free bet like fan duel has. I bet opposite sides on -110 each. One on my account and 1 on wife's. One wins and other loses and gets the free bet. I haven't looked at fan duel so not sure exactly if it is a refund or free bet. I believe it is a free bet on a losing bet.



I got my Sugar House payout today. Now I can put that in one of these other promos! I have nobody to split the deal with so will just take my chances.

GambleOn podcast said that PA is currently the center of the universe when it comes to gambling news. I figure there to be several more sports books, so we can work this like its 2005.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others

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