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TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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November 12th, 2018 at 4:56:05 PM permalink
Quote: troopscott

Quote: TomG

Don't think there was ever -190 in Las Vegas. The take back was between +190 and +220 everywhere all week, so definitely a good bet. Can't always be results oriented.

Everything involving money is results orientated



So when someone bets on red on a roulette wheel and wins they made a good bet? And the casino made a bad bet by taking it?
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
  • Threads: 11
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November 12th, 2018 at 5:03:45 PM permalink
Quote: ZenKinG

So much for that great +EV bet. No wonder you left my thread by saying you give up trying to make whatever point you were trying to make. Reminds me of the pit bosses at Palms and the Gaming Commission when they know theyre wrong or dont have an answer, they just run off without a comment. What a coincidence.



The sports books (who you admit do win at sports betting) were willing to bet the Falcons at -210 or -220. Most people understand that Expected Value is not Guaranteed Value

Had the Browns +6, the exact sort of bet that seemed to lose every week the past two years.
SM777
SM777
Joined: Apr 8, 2016
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November 12th, 2018 at 7:01:01 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Quote: SM777

Quote: gordonm888


Cleveland 28 Atlanta 16


Excuse us if we are not impressed. You created a thread solely based on your certainty that the Falcons would beat the Browns today. And you were wrong. Not wrong by 1 point or 3 points, you were wrong by a mile. Maybe next time you should realize that your opinion doesn't justify creating a thread and making a laughingstock of yourself.




Seems a bit harsh. Posted a play he liked, certainly isn't trying to reel anyone in as a tout, and clearly stated in another past later in the thread it wasn't a lock.

Not everyone posts after the game like mustangsally and claims wins. Poster should be commended for stepping out on a limb and giving a pick before the game goes. That seems to be rare around here.

Being wrong by 1 point or 20 points is the same thing when betting a money line in sports. Who cares? Neither cashes.



It didn't merit its own thread. He could have made it a post on any of many existing threads.

And, if you miss something by 20 points, its more likely that you missed something important in your analysis of the game than if you missed by 1 point.

I make many bad picks in the NFL picks game -but I don't beat my breast and make strong claims about my certainty before I do it.



Is there a sports betting picks thread? If not, then wouldn't it have been hijacking a different thread?

If you find a book that cashes moneyline bets that lose by only one point, please pass along the information. It would be helpful to all of us. But in the real world, losing by 1 and losing by 20 cash the same.... $0.
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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  • Posts: 1847
November 21st, 2018 at 12:40:06 PM permalink
Quote: djatc

not a big fan of laying money on favorites. I rarely do so

Looks like the Falcons on the road are +550
come Turkey Day
They appear to lose to the poor teams (except that super bowl game)
and win against the better teams, sometimes.

on the road so far this year they LOST, LOST, WON (this thread then started) LOST

now they played the Saints and only lost by 6 at home (week 3)
should win by at least 6 on the road.

It has been pointed out they have a super weapon

my money on Atlanta tomorrow (feels like the OP)

do not think I ever bet on them money line
(maybe a few times the year they made it to the super bowl and lost it)

even the super bowl #51 ticket did not have their name on it
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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November 21st, 2018 at 7:50:36 PM permalink
This article is pretty funny in reference to this thread and Mustang Sally's comments about Baker Mayfield, but in regards to Patrick Mahomes.
#FreeNATHAN #Paytheslaves
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1847
November 27th, 2018 at 10:58:24 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

I think Baker M goes WILD this coming week
He is so due!
Sally

looks to me that Sally 'hit the coming out of Baker' on the nose.
coming out as in top quarterback numbers

just 2 weeks do not make a season
but a way better performance than most

Does Sally dare to say Cleveland will make the playoffs this year?
high odds to win the AFC Championship and go to the Super Bowl
not as high odds to win the 2018 AFC NORTH

(Sally says she still loves her Raiders. see how she feels after a long vacation)
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)

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