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lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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November 5th, 2018 at 1:41:45 PM permalink
on the moneyline (c.g. technology) -190
$100 gets you back $153 profiting $53
don't want to give up the points (4)
betting early before line moves against me which I think probable - already moved .5


betting big (for me)
this is a great bet IMHO
glta
Please don't feed the trolls
mustangsally
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November 5th, 2018 at 4:46:39 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

FALCONS OVER BROWNS WEEK 10

is not this a little scary?
CLEV at home is 2-2-1 and looks to me can play with anybody after all the coaches got the boot.

ATLANTA, LOST the super bowl as we all remember (I remember the CHOKE)
and have not come back to earth yet. they are 1-2 on the road.

I think Baker M goes WILD this coming week
He is so due!
Sally

I think the best money line AND ATS IS Kansas City at HOME.
How can they lose? The prob of that looks to be 0
the prob of covering? less than 1

there R some good teasers coming up
good luck to you (do U need LUCK?)
I Heart Vi Hart
speedycrap
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November 5th, 2018 at 8:15:23 PM permalink
Who is Baker M?
mustangsally
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November 5th, 2018 at 9:48:38 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Who is Baker M?

with Cleveland being so bad for so long I figured everyone knew the quarterback's name

CLEVELAND BROWNS QB
#6
BAKER MAYFIELD

He was real good in college, hopefully that happens with Cleveland
He has a totally sexy girlfriend, Emily Wilkinson

wish I looked half as good as she does
well, maybe 10%

then I would probably just marry a blind man
who only sees with his hands who would tell me "I look great!"
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
michael99000
michael99000
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November 5th, 2018 at 10:10:29 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

is not this a little scary?
CLEV at home is 2-2-1 and looks to me can play with anybody after all the coaches got the boot



Cleveland has played one game since the coaches got fired and lost by 16 at home as an 8 point dog. If that’s what you consider “playing with” a team then we have different definitions of that phrase. They got outscored 16-3 in the second half and couldn’t convert a 3rd down against a team whose defense might be the only weakness
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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November 6th, 2018 at 3:25:49 AM permalink
the Falcons have won 3 in a row and come off just smoking the Redskins away scoring 38-14 when they were 1.5 dogs. at the time the Skins were 5-2 and had the 4th ranked defense in the league. anything can happen of course but I do like my bet
Please don't feed the trolls
speedycrap
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November 6th, 2018 at 7:45:54 AM permalink
The reason why I like ATL is Cleveland sucks.
DRich
DRich
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November 6th, 2018 at 8:14:50 AM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

The reason why I like ATL is Cleveland sucks.



What makes you think that Cleveland sucks?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
mustangsally
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November 6th, 2018 at 8:38:05 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

What makes you think that Cleveland sucks?

I do not think Cleveland sucks. The freeway to Cleveland where it turns right at the lake is interesting (south to north) but as the Browns I think suffered from super poor management and coaches.
Just look at the Raiders this year. simple management and coach problem (Maybe by design.)

Now they should let the team play out the season and stop all the BS that goes on the sidelines.

There are way better bets this week than ALT vs CLEV, imho
(even the NCAAF game tonight is easy $$$)

ALT knows how to choke. that sucks!!
it is perfectly clear, they got lucky last Sunday as Wash thought all they had to do was show up to win.

that is the NFL.
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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November 6th, 2018 at 10:27:00 AM permalink
the Falcons have Julio Jones -a gamebreaker
he can pull off a huge play at any time
Matt Ryan will look for him downfield many times, and probably connect deep more than once with him
Please don't feed the trolls
Boz
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November 6th, 2018 at 1:10:26 PM permalink
As we say with ZK, stop talking and start betting. If it’s a lock, bet everything you can afford to lose. Take out loans if you can afford to pay them back in the unlikely event you lose.

Easy money doesn’t come around often, just do it!
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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November 6th, 2018 at 1:33:23 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

If it’s a lock, bet everything you can afford to lose.



not saying it's a lock. I'm not ZK.

or RS for that matter😄
Please don't feed the trolls
mustangsally
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November 11th, 2018 at 12:57:07 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

not saying it's a lock.

they say on any given Sunday
This was in Cleveland

CLEVELAND BROWNS QB
#6
BAKER MAYFIELD

17-20 (good I guess. his first 14 were all completions)
216 yards
3 TDs
0 Ints

Baker Rocks!
now music all night!
Sally

Oh
Clev 28
Falcons 16

COLD weather makes some play cold
let us see what is up next week.
I Heart Vi Hart
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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November 11th, 2018 at 3:06:07 PM permalink

Cleveland 28 Atlanta 16


Excuse us if we are not impressed. You created a thread solely based on your certainty that the Falcons would beat the Browns today. And you were wrong. Not wrong by 1 point or 3 points, you were wrong by a mile. Maybe next time you should realize that your opinion doesn't justify creating a thread and making a laughingstock of yourself.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
speedycrap
speedycrap
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November 11th, 2018 at 4:49:33 PM permalink
I dont appreciate the result but the thoughts and effort.
djatc
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November 11th, 2018 at 5:19:27 PM permalink
not a big fan of laying money on favorites. I rarely do so
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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November 11th, 2018 at 9:54:42 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

they say on any given Sunday
This was in Cleveland

CLEVELAND BROWNS QB
#6
BAKER MAYFIELD

17-20 (good I guess. his first 14 were all completions)
216 yards
3 TDs
0 Ints

Baker Rocks!
now music all night!
Sally

Oh
Clev 28
Falcons 16

COLD weather makes some play cold
let us see what is up next week.

Plus he has a hot gf
I am a robot.
RS
RS
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November 12th, 2018 at 2:30:51 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

not saying it's a lock. I'm not ZK.

or RS for that matter😄


Only time I've (seriously) said anything was a lock was in reference to Mayweather killing McGregor, at least for anything that even remotely had a chance to lose. I bet a few farms on Mayweather, unfortunately I thought the odds were going to move the opposite direction and got most of my money down around -500 to -650 IIRC.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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November 12th, 2018 at 5:22:53 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Only time I've (seriously) said anything was a lock was in reference to Mayweather killing McGregor, at least for anything that even remotely had a chance to lose. I bet a few farms on Mayweather, unfortunately I thought the odds were going to move the opposite direction and got most of my money down around -500 to -650 IIRC.



you have a short memory - okay so I guess you're saying you weren't serious that time - maybe some will accept that

Quote: RS

I took triple G at -38.

Please don't feed the trolls
TomG
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November 12th, 2018 at 9:41:08 AM permalink
Don't think there was ever -190 in Las Vegas. The take back was between +190 and +220 everywhere all week, so definitely a good bet. Can't always be results oriented.
RS
RS
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November 12th, 2018 at 10:32:04 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

you have a short memory - okay so I guess you're saying you weren't serious that time - maybe some will accept that

Quote: RS

I took triple G at -38.


Damn you got a good memory. And damn good at searching this forum, too.

Nah for the most part I’m not super serious. Certain people who bet on Ggg think saying “it’s a lock” jinxes the bet or some dumbs***. But I still think it was a good bet. But no I didn’t go super ham on it.


Although I did write something in the cooperation game thread about having a guaranteed winner / lock on a play. And was/am serious about that. Unfortunately it’s kinda dried up and I’m salty about it. >:(
ZenKinG
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November 12th, 2018 at 11:33:02 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

on the moneyline (c.g. technology) -190
$100 gets you back $153 profiting $53
don't want to give up the points (4)
betting early before line moves against me which I think probable - already moved .5


betting big (for me)
this is a great bet IMHO
glta



So much for that great +EV bet. No wonder you left my thread by saying you give up trying to make whatever point you were trying to make. Reminds me of the pit bosses at Palms and the Gaming Commission when they know theyre wrong or dont have an answer, they just run off without a comment. What a coincidence.
Any private business open to the PUBLIC (ie. droned out casinos) cannot have a criminal trespass enforced against an individual without GOOD CAUSE (Disruptive or Disorderly conduct). You will never go to prison for being thrown out of a casino for legal advantage play and then returning because it's simply unconstitutional 'as applied' to the individual. 'As applied' constitutional issues must FIRST be raised in DISTRICT COURT (trial court) to have it thrown out. You CANNOT raise it on APPEAL This is the best kept secret in the world of casinos not just in Vegas but everywhere in the country. Thank me later.
SM777
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November 12th, 2018 at 12:08:22 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888


Cleveland 28 Atlanta 16


Excuse us if we are not impressed. You created a thread solely based on your certainty that the Falcons would beat the Browns today. And you were wrong. Not wrong by 1 point or 3 points, you were wrong by a mile. Maybe next time you should realize that your opinion doesn't justify creating a thread and making a laughingstock of yourself.




Seems a bit harsh. Posted a play he liked, certainly isn't trying to reel anyone in as a tout, and clearly stated in another past later in the thread it wasn't a lock.

Not everyone posts after the game like mustangsally and claims wins. Poster should be commended for stepping out on a limb and giving a pick before the game goes. That seems to be rare around here.

Being wrong by 1 point or 20 points is the same thing when betting a money line in sports. Who cares? Neither cashes.
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
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November 12th, 2018 at 1:09:32 PM permalink
Quote: SM777

Quote: gordonm888


Cleveland 28 Atlanta 16


Excuse us if we are not impressed. You created a thread solely based on your certainty that the Falcons would beat the Browns today. And you were wrong. Not wrong by 1 point or 3 points, you were wrong by a mile. Maybe next time you should realize that your opinion doesn't justify creating a thread and making a laughingstock of yourself.




Seems a bit harsh. Posted a play he liked, certainly isn't trying to reel anyone in as a tout, and clearly stated in another past later in the thread it wasn't a lock.

Not everyone posts after the game like mustangsally and claims wins. Poster should be commended for stepping out on a limb and giving a pick before the game goes. That seems to be rare around here.

Being wrong by 1 point or 20 points is the same thing when betting a money line in sports. Who cares? Neither cashes.



Agree. To me this is essentially just small talk. People talk about sports bets off the top of their heads all the time. It can be fun.

Different from either touting, or trying to convince people that -ev bets are +ev
billryan
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November 12th, 2018 at 1:17:39 PM permalink
I personally wouldn't have started a thread on it, but I don't think its a big deal. Its not like he posted lottery numbers or anything.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
ZenKinG
ZenKinG
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November 12th, 2018 at 1:18:50 PM permalink
Quote: SM777

Quote: gordonm888


Cleveland 28 Atlanta 16


Excuse us if we are not impressed. You created a thread solely based on your certainty that the Falcons would beat the Browns today. And you were wrong. Not wrong by 1 point or 3 points, you were wrong by a mile. Maybe next time you should realize that your opinion doesn't justify creating a thread and making a laughingstock of yourself.




Seems a bit harsh. Posted a play he liked, certainly isn't trying to reel anyone in as a tout, and clearly stated in another past later in the thread it wasn't a lock.

Not everyone posts after the game like mustangsally and claims wins. Poster should be commended for stepping out on a limb and giving a pick before the game goes. That seems to be rare around here.

Being wrong by 1 point or 20 points is the same thing when betting a money line in sports. Who cares? Neither cashes.



You must have missed my many calls ive made on this forum where I 'stepped out on a limb', whether it was sports picks, bitcoin, stocks/market, I literally havent been wrong about one call, but im the guy who doesnt know anything. Im the conspiracy theorist. Im the guy who will end up under a bridge. Yeah keep it coming everyone. Tired of proving everyone wrong in my life, friends, family, forum posters, doesnt matter.
Any private business open to the PUBLIC (ie. droned out casinos) cannot have a criminal trespass enforced against an individual without GOOD CAUSE (Disruptive or Disorderly conduct). You will never go to prison for being thrown out of a casino for legal advantage play and then returning because it's simply unconstitutional 'as applied' to the individual. 'As applied' constitutional issues must FIRST be raised in DISTRICT COURT (trial court) to have it thrown out. You CANNOT raise it on APPEAL This is the best kept secret in the world of casinos not just in Vegas but everywhere in the country. Thank me later.
troopscott
troopscott
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November 12th, 2018 at 1:30:19 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

Don't think there was ever -190 in Las Vegas. The take back was between +190 and +220 everywhere all week, so definitely a good bet. Can't always be results oriented.



Everything involving money is results orientated
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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November 12th, 2018 at 3:30:25 PM permalink
Quote: SM777

Quote: gordonm888


Cleveland 28 Atlanta 16


Excuse us if we are not impressed. You created a thread solely based on your certainty that the Falcons would beat the Browns today. And you were wrong. Not wrong by 1 point or 3 points, you were wrong by a mile. Maybe next time you should realize that your opinion doesn't justify creating a thread and making a laughingstock of yourself.




Seems a bit harsh. Posted a play he liked, certainly isn't trying to reel anyone in as a tout, and clearly stated in another past later in the thread it wasn't a lock.

Not everyone posts after the game like mustangsally and claims wins. Poster should be commended for stepping out on a limb and giving a pick before the game goes. That seems to be rare around here.

Being wrong by 1 point or 20 points is the same thing when betting a money line in sports. Who cares? Neither cashes.



It didn't merit its own thread. He could have made it a post on any of many existing threads.

And, if you miss something by 20 points, its more likely that you missed something important in your analysis of the game than if you missed by 1 point.

I make many bad picks in the NFL picks game -but I don't beat my breast and make strong claims about my certainty before I do it.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
GWAE
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November 12th, 2018 at 4:42:47 PM permalink
Quote: ZenKinG

Quote: SM777

Quote: gordonm888


Cleveland 28 Atlanta 16


Excuse us if we are not impressed. You created a thread solely based on your certainty that the Falcons would beat the Browns today. And you were wrong. Not wrong by 1 point or 3 points, you were wrong by a mile. Maybe next time you should realize that your opinion doesn't justify creating a thread and making a laughingstock of yourself.




Seems a bit harsh. Posted a play he liked, certainly isn't trying to reel anyone in as a tout, and clearly stated in another past later in the thread it wasn't a lock.

Not everyone posts after the game like mustangsally and claims wins. Poster should be commended for stepping out on a limb and giving a pick before the game goes. That seems to be rare around here.

Being wrong by 1 point or 20 points is the same thing when betting a money line in sports. Who cares? Neither cashes.



You must have missed my many calls ive made on this forum where I 'stepped out on a limb', whether it was sports picks, bitcoin, stocks/market, I literally havent been wrong about one call, but im the guy who doesnt know anything. Im the conspiracy theorist. Im the guy who will end up under a bridge. Yeah keep it coming everyone. Tired of proving everyone wrong in my life, friends, family, forum posters, doesnt matter.



wow you just can't help yourself.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
RS
RS
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November 12th, 2018 at 4:51:35 PM permalink
Speaking of “uncashed bets”, during the superb owl where the patriots came back to beat the falcons, I asked people at the party if they’d give me 22-to-1 on the patriots. This was in the third quarter right around when their chance to win was the lowest. I don’t remember how I came up with 22-to-1, other than maybe that was the “fair line” or slightly higher than the fair line for inplay betting.

I said I’d take up to $500 in action vs the other person’s $11,000. Someone said they’d accept the bet, but only for $1k vs $22k. At that amount I was too much of a b**** to accept, although partly because I would feel bad for taking $22k on a bet from a friend in the crazy off chance that the Patriots actually would win....but also cuz I didn’t wanna bet $1k. :(
TomG
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November 12th, 2018 at 4:56:05 PM permalink
Quote: troopscott

Quote: TomG

Don't think there was ever -190 in Las Vegas. The take back was between +190 and +220 everywhere all week, so definitely a good bet. Can't always be results oriented.

Everything involving money is results orientated



So when someone bets on red on a roulette wheel and wins they made a good bet? And the casino made a bad bet by taking it?
TomG
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November 12th, 2018 at 5:03:45 PM permalink
Quote: ZenKinG

So much for that great +EV bet. No wonder you left my thread by saying you give up trying to make whatever point you were trying to make. Reminds me of the pit bosses at Palms and the Gaming Commission when they know theyre wrong or dont have an answer, they just run off without a comment. What a coincidence.



The sports books (who you admit do win at sports betting) were willing to bet the Falcons at -210 or -220. Most people understand that Expected Value is not Guaranteed Value

Had the Browns +6, the exact sort of bet that seemed to lose every week the past two years.
SM777
SM777
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November 12th, 2018 at 7:01:01 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Quote: SM777

Quote: gordonm888


Cleveland 28 Atlanta 16


Excuse us if we are not impressed. You created a thread solely based on your certainty that the Falcons would beat the Browns today. And you were wrong. Not wrong by 1 point or 3 points, you were wrong by a mile. Maybe next time you should realize that your opinion doesn't justify creating a thread and making a laughingstock of yourself.




Seems a bit harsh. Posted a play he liked, certainly isn't trying to reel anyone in as a tout, and clearly stated in another past later in the thread it wasn't a lock.

Not everyone posts after the game like mustangsally and claims wins. Poster should be commended for stepping out on a limb and giving a pick before the game goes. That seems to be rare around here.

Being wrong by 1 point or 20 points is the same thing when betting a money line in sports. Who cares? Neither cashes.



It didn't merit its own thread. He could have made it a post on any of many existing threads.

And, if you miss something by 20 points, its more likely that you missed something important in your analysis of the game than if you missed by 1 point.

I make many bad picks in the NFL picks game -but I don't beat my breast and make strong claims about my certainty before I do it.



Is there a sports betting picks thread? If not, then wouldn't it have been hijacking a different thread?

If you find a book that cashes moneyline bets that lose by only one point, please pass along the information. It would be helpful to all of us. But in the real world, losing by 1 and losing by 20 cash the same.... $0.
7craps
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November 21st, 2018 at 12:40:06 PM permalink
Quote: djatc

not a big fan of laying money on favorites. I rarely do so

Looks like the Falcons on the road are +550
come Turkey Day
They appear to lose to the poor teams (except that super bowl game)
and win against the better teams, sometimes.

on the road so far this year they LOST, LOST, WON (this thread then started) LOST

now they played the Saints and only lost by 6 at home (week 3)
should win by at least 6 on the road.

It has been pointed out they have a super weapon

my money on Atlanta tomorrow (feels like the OP)

do not think I ever bet on them money line
(maybe a few times the year they made it to the super bowl and lost it)

even the super bowl #51 ticket did not have their name on it
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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November 21st, 2018 at 7:50:36 PM permalink
This article is pretty funny in reference to this thread and Mustang Sally's comments about Baker Mayfield, but in regards to Patrick Mahomes.
I am a robot.
7craps
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November 27th, 2018 at 10:58:24 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

I think Baker M goes WILD this coming week
He is so due!
Sally

looks to me that Sally 'hit the coming out of Baker' on the nose.
coming out as in top quarterback numbers

just 2 weeks do not make a season
but a way better performance than most

Does Sally dare to say Cleveland will make the playoffs this year?
high odds to win the AFC Championship and go to the Super Bowl
not as high odds to win the 2018 AFC NORTH

(Sally says she still loves her Raiders. see how she feels after a long vacation)
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
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